rockymac52 wrote:Code: Select all
Player Last Year Projected
John Wall 17.77 19.84
AJ Price 11.54 12.22
Shelvin Mack 11.92 13.36
Jordan Crawford 14.61 15.29
Bradley Beal n/a n/a
Trevor Ariza 14.23 13.3
Martell Webster 10.02 10.64
Chris Singleton 8.34 9.75
Cartier Martin 12.85 n/a
Nene 18.65 17.02
Trevor Booker 15.46 15.13
Jan Vesely 11.56 11.76
Emeka Okafor 15.13 14.62
Kevin Seraphin 15.83 15.67He seems down on Nene in particular. He has almost all of our big men shooting worse percentages this year, which although I'm inclined to hate, might actually make sense IF they are forced to take on larger roles in the offense than they are used to (higher usage rates). However, that is not what Hollinger predicts at all. His usage rate predictions are pretty surprising to me. He has Wall and Crawford at about 25% each, and then everyone else is under 20%. Nene is at 18% I believe. Almost everybody else isn't even close. Unless he expects Beal to have a usage rate between 25% and 30% or more, I don't get how it adds up. Regardless, he seems to be convinced that our guards are going to be our source of offense this year, but then he predicts decreasing FG% and TS% for all of our big men, so I'm a little confused about that.
Thoughts?
I think the Wiz have produced bad records for four years.
They have a head coach that is new and doesn't have a ton to judge him by as a HC
They have a new roster which he has no idea how that new coach will line them up or spread the min
And we have a top #3 SG who he doesn't know how quickly he will translate his game
So to start, I don't think he is that interested or at least not interested in projecting anything positive
And after that, he doesn't have a ton to work with.
Its all a huge guess.
Example.
Cartier Martin 12.85 n/a
Really. NA ? Not even the same as last year ?
On top of this, I think of the bottom teams from last year, the Wiz shake out like this.
Cleveland was a great team not long ago. A darling with LeBron. And now they have Kyrie so they get buz.
NJ is now Brooklyn and they have Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, etc
Charlotte got MKG, MJ owns then so they get attention, but no one is projecting playoffs. in 09 .537%
I think it all adds up to.. not much interest in the Wiz. There just isn't much of a marketing story there when compared to the other teams short of " Will John Wall have a break out year" and if he does, the team will go as Wall goes. For me, I don't think that is true. Wall doesn't have become a D Rose type player for this team to make the playoffs. And he has already shown he can post good numbers. He just needs to do it more efficiently. I project him at 10+ ast 16-18 pts with solid D while managing the offense better and more efficient. pts from the line, fast break pts and a better J. He already does 16 and 8 so that isn't a stretch. 16 and 10+ on .440 on a winning team would be a successful step for Wall.
I think the team will have pretty balance scoring between post scoring, guards, 3balls, and fast break pts.
There is no reason for the media to stick their neck out for the Wiz. Project low or medium and if they over achieve, they will pick up the story as that happens. If they don't, they can be accurate in their projects. There is no downside for them estimating they way they are regarding the Wiz. Its cool.
I get it. Bring on the season.
