Build around KG or DIRK?

[Texas Chuck]

Again and I dont want to equate the situation in Dallas to the absolute trainwreck happening up North but..

In 2004. Dallas inexplicably lets Nash walk for nothing. This leads to a series of dominos falling. They trade Jamison to Wash for Stack/Laetner and the #5 --Note this deal happens prior to Nash actually leaving but its clear when they draft Devin over a lot of other potential options that they know the line they have set for Nash may get crossed. They then trade Walker for JET/Henderson. So they have now traded two extemely talented(if admitted terribly fitting players) to fill one hole. They downgrade from Nash/Walker/Jamison to JET/rookie Devin/and past his prime Stack. At the end of the offseason they turn Laettner's deal, Najera(an underrated loss) and filler to sign Damp to a big deal. Then the following offseason they amnesty Finley.

So Dirk lost 4 all-star level players in the course of 2 offseasons. Now they still had some talent. Damp was a solid player early in his Dallas career. JHo was solid as was JET. Devin had flashes but made Ricky Davis look like a genius with his penchant for dumb fouls and dumber turnovers. Stack scored but at terrible efficiency. They added KVH at the trade deadline in 05 and he plays okay as Dirk's backup. They sign Doug Christie to start at sg and he and his crazy wife finally completely fall off the deep end and his Mavericks career lasts 7 games of absolutely putrid basketball.

The point isnt to say Dirk had the same level of fultility KG did but that he did have to overcome a complete roster turnover, a massive downgrade in raw talent, and a coaching change that couldnt have been a bigger 180 from Nellie to Avery. Yet not only did he survive this, Dirk thrived. He put up monster individual years 2005-2007. Probably should have 2 MVPS--he should have won in 06. His team continued to win big 58,60 & 67(after starting 0-4 so ended the season 67-11) until finally melting down against GSW and leading ultimately to the Kidd trade.

My point has always been this was a tough period for both KG and Dirk. Both still played really well individually tho. I jsut dont want the narrative to be KG's teams sucked so 05-07 can be excused without at least giving Dirk a boatload of credit for lifting his team to great heights in the midst of so much change.

[tsherkin]

I don't disagree with that, per se, but it does bear mention that there is a compelling difference between Don Nelson/Avery Johnson and Dwayne Casey/Randy Wittman, too, yes? And then, of course, Rick Carlise (and the accompanying additions of Kidd, Marion and Chandler at various points).

[tsherkin]

Oh, right, and in 2005, Dirk still had Finley, Terry (who shot 42% from 3 that year), Howard and Damp.

That right there is clearly better than any roster Minny fielded from 05-07.

[Texas Chuck]

Yes. I have consistently said he had better talent than KG. Im just pointing out that he went through some of the similar problems KG did in important and talented players leaving the team and coaching changes and knuckleheads and yet his teams actually improved. And Dirk's personal growth as a player is the primary reason.

I think KG's situation is so bad and Cuban spends so much money that the actual reality of Dirk's situation gets missed. Trust me I lived through all of it.

And we obviously arent discussing 08 and beyond where both guys are finally surrounded by a legit coach and teammates who fit their individual games.

[tsherkin]

Yes. I have consistently said he had better talent than KG. Im just pointing out that he went through some of the similar problems KG did in important and talented players leaving the team and coaching changes and knuckleheads and yet his teams actually improved. And Dirk's personal growth as a player is the primary reason.

Mmm, but the considerably greater level of teammate talent and the higher-level support from management and the coaching staff cannot be ignored, and the two situations aren't comparable. Dirk's success in the same time frame isn't really a relevant point next to Garnett's situation because of the vast disparity in their team contexts. It's nice to note, but the upheavel in Dallas is more a reason that the talented rosters weren't competing for a title, which is a far different struggle than dealing with the idiocy of team management and trying to make the playoffs.

[Texas Chuck]

Well we will disagree on how "talented" those Dallas rosters were but thats not even really my point. In fact I will go so far as to say as a Mavericks fan all that talent downgrade was absolutely the right move for our franchise. I dont think we have as much success sticking with Nash and Nellie as we did moving on from that.

I definitely dont want to get back into that stupid game of trying to figure out how much each player's respective teammates were worth. I am no longer trying to penalize KG for 05-07. You and drza have convinced me of my mistakes there. My post wasnt about KG at all. I just want Dirk to receive credit for becoming the clear leader of those teams and leading them to really good record and the finals run as clearly the best player and the best player by a long long ways. This thread has become almost exclusively about KG and we need to discuss Dirk more in order to determine which player to build around.

I am more trying to show itt about building around Dirk vs KG that you can sacrfice a lot of talent around Dirk in order to get better fitting parts and still win big. The fact remains that from 05 forward he had 2 all-star teammates --one year each from Kidd and JHo both as injury replacements. So while he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime(obv KG wasnt his latter years in Minny) he hasnt had elite teammtes.

[tsherkin]

Well we will disagree on how "talented" those Dallas rosters were but thats not even really my point.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they were talented enough that I expected him to do more than he did. I was right shocked and rather thrilled when they made the Finals in 06, for example. That was all due to the beat-down Dirk gave the Spurs, which was utterly unfathomable at the time. Beautiful basketball, that.

I'm saying only that in comparison the Minny situation, Dirk's situation isn't even worth discussing. They represent two entirely separate and wholly different situations. Minnesota was an ungodly trainwreck of incompetence.

In fact I will go so far as to say as a Mavericks fan all that talent downgrade was absolutely the right move for our franchise. I dont think we have as much success sticking with Nash and Nellie as we did moving on from that.

I think Nellie was a far bigger problem than Nash, personally. Nash would have been fine if they didn't have a toolbag coach who didn't believe in defense or frontcourt size, and didn't gameplan effectively on defense.

I just want Dirk to receive credit for becoming the clear leader of those teams and leading them to really good record and the finals run as clearly the best player and the best player by a long long ways. This thread has become almost exclusively about KG and we need to discuss Dirk more in order to determine which player to build around.

Dirk very much deserves credit; what he's accomplished in Dallas has been remarkable. From 01 forwad, the only team of his that's won less than 50 games has been the 2012 Mavs... winning 36 games in a 66-game season, which would have been around 45 wins in a proper season. That stretch includes seven appearances at least as far as the Semis, one knockout in the WCFs and a pair of trips to the Finals (the latest ending with a title). That's a damned fine 12-year stretch for a franchise.

I am more trying to show itt about building around Dirk vs KG that you can sacrfice a lot of talent around Dirk in order to get better fitting parts and still win big.

I'm not seeing the relevance here. Minny didn't have the talent to sacrifice, so it's an utterly useless point in a comparative discussion.

The fact remains that from 05 forward he had 2 all-star teammates --one year each from Kidd and JHo both as injury replacements. So while he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime(obv KG wasnt his latter years in Minny) he hasnt had elite teammtes.

No, but he's had good coaching, roleplayers that covered his weaknesses and guys who've stepped up when it matters. Jason Terry SHOULD have been an All-Star at least once, he's a very talented player whose rep took a bit of a hit when he went to the bench. It bears mention that while Marion didn't play as he did at his peak, he was a 13/7 player who was a very good defender on the 2011 title Mavs. Chandler was DPOY the year after he left Dallas, after having exerted an obvious and visible impact on their team with his offensive rebounding and defense. Terry did win the 6MOY in 2009. Kidd is a former All-Star who played very good defense and found himself a role as a spot-up shooter and distributor for the team. Haywood, Stevenson, more defensive roleplayers who fit into the rotation very effectively.

It'd be disingenuous in the extreme to suggest that Dirk hasn't had much to work with, which is what you're implying when you talk about not having elite teammates. He hasn't had the kind of squad where you'd expect him to make the Finals in consecutive seasons like, for example, Kobe, but he's had a good deal of talent around him (especially the last 4 years or so) and he's done a lot with it. Remember that in the 03-04 season, Jamison was the 6MOY. A year later, he was an All-Star in Washington. That trade worked out rather well for them, as you noted before. That had nothing to do with Dirk or his leadership and everything to do with the talent level and trade value of a player management acquired. Devin Harris was later the key piece in the deal that netted them Jason Kidd. That means that the guy who was noted so much for the defense he played in the 2011 playoffs was acquired based on something entirely independent of Dirk. He averaged basically 10/10 for the Mavs over the last 30 games of the 08 season, then 9/9, 10/9, and finally 8/8 in the title season. Antoine Walker was likewise moved with Tony Delk in order to acquire Jason Terry... the 09 6MOY and the semi-unheralded second scorer of the 2011 title run. Remember, 17.5 ppg on 60.4% TS in the 2011 postseason. 18 ppg on 60.5% TS in the Finals. In 32.5 mpg. 14/6/2 and great defense from Marion in the Finals. 10/9 and great D from Chandler. 42.9% on 4.7 3PA/g in the Finals from Kidd, averaging ~ 8/5/6 in ~ 38 mpg. DeShawn Stevenson shot 56.5% from 3 in the Finals on a little over 3.8 3PA/g while playing strong defense.

Hell if that isn't a team with a lot of strong contributors. Not a lot of top-end star talent after Dirk, but again, it's unfair to characterize post-05 Dirk as not having played with talent, or that management didn't do a really, REALLY good job in order to put him in position to make those runs. Lest we forget, the title run in 06 was galvanized not just by Dirk, but by 17.1 ppg from Jason Terry on 57.5% TS. He was a 40%+ 3pt shooter in each of his first three seasons with Dallas and hasn't shot worse than 36% from 3 on a season with the Mavs. In the 06 playoffs, he scored 18.9 ppg on 52% TS, stumbling because he couldn't find his 3 and doesn't draw fouls. But he was still a significant scoring presence and has been a key part of their various postseason runs. He averaged 22 ppg on 55.2% TS in the Finals (although he was brutal in the elimination game, he did open the series with a 32-point game and score 35 in game 5).

See what I'm getting at, though? Dirk's enjoyed a LOT more talent than has Garnett.

One thing that does come to mind looking at the way the two of them have played out is that their narratives do support the idea that defensive value seems better extracted from roleplayers and offensive value from star players. That kind of thought process would need further investigation, but Dirk has proven to be capable of elevating his rebounding game come the playoffs... and when it really mattered, he had enough help on the glass from his team that it didn't matter, so he could focus on scoring and get decent support from his teammates and still win.

[Texas Chuck]

It'd be disingenuous in the extreme to suggest that Dirk hasn't had much to work with, which is what you're implying when you talk about not having elite teammates. .

Wow talk about completely missing what I was saying. I said quite clearly that he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime. I really dont appreciate you twisting that into what Im quoting above.


Again I was attempting to make posts solely about Dirk. I was not making a comparative post. I was extremely clear on this and once again what had turned into an actual discussion on merits has swerved off course and this time I am not the cause.

I will come and discuss the various merits of your post about the MAvs players when I have some free time but I hope you take the time to go back and read what I actually posted not what you are attempting to read into it.

[tsherkin]

Wow talk about completely missing what I was saying. I said quite clearly that he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime. I really dont appreciate you twisting that into what Im quoting above.

Again I was attempting to make posts solely about Dirk. I was not making a comparative post. I was extremely clear on this and once again what had turned into an actual discussion on merits has swerved off course and this time I am not the cause.

Then maybe you missed me attacking the relevance of that post to this thread. Here, it's a direct comparison between the two, so talk of matters independent of and immaterial to the debate at hand seems... unnecessarily random. Forgive me if you were offended, but I'm a bit confused as to why you're campaigning for credit to Dirk when most here are acknowledging that he's done a lot with what he's had and that his success with the Mavs has been fantastic. I did acknowledge that, more than once; Dirk has been a superstar player for a dozen years now, this isn't news and it isn't something that's frequently overlooked except by extreme haters who are unaware of the monolithic difference between his play before 08 and since (or the reasons behind what happened in 06 and 07).

[Texas Chuck]

I made posts solely about Dirk for two reasons:

1. Look at the posts itt and almost all of them are exclusively or nearly exclusively about KG. How can we have a comparitive discussion if we are only discussing one guy?

2. Much is made about 05-07 and the bad situation KG was in. While yet again let me be crystal clear, Dirk was in a better situation the facts are there was a lot of turmoil and a downgrade in talent. Not many teams are able to not only maintain their previous level of play but in fact improve upon it.

In a seperate post I will tell how this lifelong Mavs fan sees those 05-07 teams. Hopefully some other Mavs fans will post to see if Im crazy or if I know that team better than you(as I certainly should).

[drza]

Well we will disagree on how "talented" those Dallas rosters were but thats not even really my point. In fact I will go so far as to say as a Mavericks fan all that talent downgrade was absolutely the right move for our franchise. I dont think we have as much success sticking with Nash and Nellie as we did moving on from that.

I definitely dont want to get back into that stupid game of trying to figure out how much each player's respective teammates were worth. I am no longer trying to penalize KG for 05-07. You and drza have convinced me of my mistakes there. My post wasnt about KG at all. I just want Dirk to receive credit for becoming the clear leader of those teams and leading them to really good record and the finals run as clearly the best player and the best player by a long long ways. This thread has become almost exclusively about KG and we need to discuss Dirk more in order to determine which player to build around.

I am more trying to show itt about building around Dirk vs KG that you can sacrfice a lot of talent around Dirk in order to get better fitting parts and still win big. The fact remains that from 05 forward he had 2 all-star teammates --one year each from Kidd and JHo both as injury replacements. So while he has been surrounded by quality players his entire prime(obv KG wasnt his latter years in Minny) he hasnt had elite teammtes.

(I still plan to reply to your and tsherkin's previous posts, but those are huge undertakings. This is quicker)

You raise some good points with your last two posts, and I'd like to take a minute to agree with you that sometimes in comparisons the tendency is for one side to be minimized in order to argue for the other. It's why you see so many Kobe fans hating on LeBron and vice versa, and I really think it tends to happen in these KG/Dirk threads as well. I tend to come from the opposite direction, though...I personally think Dirk is an amazing player, and that he's one of the best of all time. Before 2008 I had him slightly over Kobe, then from 08 - 10 Kobe started to pull away, then after 2011 I have them back competing again. I think Dirk's offensive skill set at his size makes him one of the biggest offensive mismatches in NBA history, and I also think he's a better defender than he is often given credit for. I have nothing bad to say about Dirk in general...I just think KG is better.

That said, I think the underlined above is a huge point when it comes to evaluating the Mavs teams of the last decade. Namely, that "talent" doesn't necessarily connote "better cast". And this is something that often, often, often gets lost in the debates here where "number of All Stars" is often the extent of analysis done in determining cast. Before I go further, let me throw out a few thoughts:

1) The Mavericks have sported one of (if not the) highest cumulative payrolls of the last decade

2) Mark Cuban was obsessed with winning a championship

3) The Mavs were one of the first teams to fully buy into the advanced stats movement, and they have proudly been both investing in and (more importantly) USING more statistical analysis for player evaluation/acquisition than the vast majority of (if not all) franchises.

So with those three thoughts in mind, here's the thing: I don't think the progression from uber-talented but horrible fitting 2004 cast to not-as-talented-on-paper 2006-07 near-title-team Mavs to "also-not-as-talented-on-paper-but-title-winning-2011-Mavs" was an accident.

I also don't think that this progression of events connoted a downgrade in casts. The opposite, in fact...I think Cuban systematically built better supporting casts around Dirk (within the constraints of human error) as the decade went along.

To my view, Cuban came onto the scene early in the decade and first started just buying the best fantasy team that his money could buy. He was bringing in the Van Exels and Raefs, the Jamisons, the Walkers to go with his Dirk/Nash/Finley base with the idea that accumulating star power would lead to more wins. But after he arguably came within a Dirk injury of a title in 2003 only to see it fall off the board despite lots of added talent in 2004, I think Cuban got smart. He looked at his franchise player, Dirk, and clinically evaluated his strengths and weaknesses then set out to find the players that would best fit Dirk's game. And while it'd be great to build an All Star cast around those strengths, the salary cap rules and Dirk's unique skillset made it possible to fill out team roles with a bunch of players that were a step-down from superstar.

Essentially, I think Cuban Moneyballed the Mavs...only with the caveat of building around a transcendent superstar, and also having the capability to outspend pretty much anyone within the confines of the cap rules.

And also, let me be clear, I think it's to Dirk's credit, to Cuban's credit, and to the Mavs' team and coaches' credit that this plan worked.

However.

What I often see on message boards is Dirk getting extra credit for winning without superstar teammates, without acknowledgment that a) this was a strategy, b) he was playing with one of the highest priced casts money can buy, and c) the ensemble cast that the Mavs put together in 06 or 11 were actually better casts than the collection of star players that they put together around him in 2004. Does that make sense? Let me try with different words:

Dirk being a dominant player and leading the 06 Mavs to the Finals and the 11 Mavs to the title is a huge accomplishment. BUT, he wasn't working with lesser casts than he had when surrounded by All Stars in 2003 or 2004. Instead, he was working with smarter-built casts that were tailored directly to his strengths and weaknesses by an owner with very few financial limits and an extremely egg-head group of advisers.

The upshot of my stance, with regard to the OP, is that Dirk winning with the Mavs' casts of the past decade isn't an indication that he's necessarily easier to build around. The formula that the Mavs used in '06 and '11 was very specific: Dirk brilliance, surrounded by defensive role-playing centers, defensive role-playing wing, dynamic wing, distributing point guard with quick hands, strong scoring combo guard, solid bench. That all of the other parts changed except for Dirk and Terry doesn't mean that the template itself changed...just the players that they got to fill those roles. Moneyball.

(Now, none of the above necessarily argues that Dirk ISN'T the easier player to build around than KG either. I just wanted to make the point clear, the same way I did when I looked more into KG's and Dirk's casts numerically, that the lack of All Stars in Dirk's cast does not connote weaker. He's been individually brilliant, but he's also had a lot of help. And some of that help is more subtle than what might come through on the surface)

[Texas Chuck]

drza,

I was most of the way through a huge post to answer tsherkin and I have just deleted every bit of it. You have beautifully summed up how I feel about the Dirk-Cuban era Mavs. I might disagree with a small point here or there but you pretty much nailed it. That is an outstanding post that very accurately reflects how I feel about those Mavericks teams.

Just a really terrific post.

[tsherkin]

1. Look at the posts itt and almost all of them are exclusively or nearly exclusively about KG. How can we have a comparitive discussion if we are only discussing one guy?

Eventually we have to discuss the other guy, sure, but there's a lot to be said in response to elements of Garnett's career and game, right? And the natural flow of a conversation has meant the topic of KG has dominated. Trying to change that flow with an irrelevant comment apropos of nothing seems pointless.

2. Much is made about 05-07 and the bad situation KG was in. While yet again let me be crystal clear, Dirk was in a better situation the facts are there was a lot of turmoil and a downgrade in talent.

So? He had a better team, a better series of coaches, better management and did more with his team in the process, because he's also a fantastic player. I don't see this comment as germane to the topic at hand.

In a seperate post I will tell how this lifelong Mavs fan sees those 05-07 teams. Hopefully some other Mavs fans will post to see if Im crazy or if I know that team better than you(as I certainly should).

An interesting comment, that last, but if you know the Mavs, then you know that Terry's streak scoring and perimeter shooting have been very important... Whether present or absent. You should remember how bad Howard was in 06, you should be fully aware of the progression of teammates, impacts and numbers that I showed and you should dancing around the issue and try to make this relevant to the debate at hand.

Few people talk about the 05-07 Mavs because they were successful. When they do, they bemoan Dirk's individual performances in the playoffs those years, and there are fair responses to be made. Most notably, what he's done since and the impact of the rules changes on perimeter stars in 05 and 06... And the turmoil surrounding Avery Johnson's declining hold on the team as his fiery doucheball act got old without a ton of substance or versatilty behind it.

However, in this debate, he had so much more from his team (roster, coach and management, flaws and all) that in a comparison with Garnett, it's not a salient point of discussion.

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[tsherkin]

that the lack of All Stars in Dirk's cast does not connote weaker. He's been individually brilliant, but he's also had a lot of help. And some of that help is more subtle than what might come through on the surface)

See this, Chuck?

This is a more eloquent way of saying what I was saying two posts ago.

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[Swimmer]

Obviously, there was a lot of team unrest in 2005.

Things to keep in mind regarding 05-07: ...

And yet, KG won 14 fewer games in 05. Cassell's 20 games, Sprewell's defense, and more minutes to WallyWorld really made them that much worse? I don't know how much of a pass to give KG for this year.

2006-2007 were well-ingrained my mind . As is Adriana Lima ! And Kevin McHale...

I think drza hit the nail on the head with regard's to Dirk's later teams. There was roster turnover and the talent certainly fell a bit, but a) the quality was overall still in the average-below average range and b) really fit better with regards to Dirk's own strengths and weaknesses. This does speak to Dirk's skill level (for many players, weaknesses means "needs another player, as good as or better"), but also, management's willingness to spend on placing a team around Dirk. Credit should be given to both parties, and not necessarily skewed heavily towards the star.

[MisterWestside]

drza,

I was most of the way through a huge post to answer tsherkin and I have just deleted every bit of it. You have beautifully summed up how I feel about the Dirk-Cuban era Mavs. I might disagree with a small point here or there but you pretty much nailed it. That is an outstanding post that very accurately reflects how I feel about those Mavericks teams.

Just a really terrific post.

You know, I did say this all the way back on page 5 before drza made his lengthy post with regard to Dirk and the Mavs:

Actually, stars AND their teammates (along with coaches, personnel and management) make the team. Which is something you're overlooking here. You can put a HoF player on your team; without the talent around him, the fit of talent around him, and proper coaching to put it all together they're not winning titles.

This has nothing to do with being "pro-KG"; it's a basic truth in team sports.

Your posts (thankfully) have moved away from looking merely at what the T-Wolves teams did and "blaming" KG for their lack of success, but even while Dirk didn't play with all-timers on his roster, he still had more of these things in place (other with better team management) than KG. But at least you're more willing to be open to this matter than others who rank these two players by win/losses and "titles as the man".

And yet, KG won 14 fewer games in 05. Cassell's 20 games, Sprewell's defense, and more minutes to WallyWorld really made them that much worse? I don't know how much of a pass to give KG for this year.

That team was dysfunctional with locker-room clashes and head-coach changes. While I don't solely use motivation/team "chemistry" etc. to explain a team's ability to win, they still do matter.

[Stebo_SSK]

Had KG had a team like Dallas in his prime he would have been alot better. The only good team he had ended up losing to the super Laker team in 2004. Dirk and the Mavs were losing and really didnt break through until 2006. I think to shade KG for having a lesser team while praising Dirk for having a better one is out of line.

[MisterWestside]

We have never-before-seen access to game tape and a much greater focus from the professional academic community performing these analyses. I'm not talking about John Hollinger and his ridiculous ESPN tripe, but the APBRmetrics stuff that's going on and the sort of data we see at the MIT conference, etc.

As much as I don't use PER, Hollinger 1) doesn't pretend it's without flaws (Berri take notes!), 2) has used other metrics in alot of his work such +/- and other box metrics, along with game tape and 3) has actually outperformed blends of RAPM/box metrics with his PER in prediction contests. He's a solid analyst.

[Texas Chuck]

Wow tsherkin you are killing me. I would not have thought my posts on Dirk to be so out of left field as to be completely irrelevant. Not sure why we cant talk about Dirk in a Dirk v KG thread but whatever. Ill not mention Dirk again until I see the thread acknowleding his presence in the debate. Nor did I perceive myself to be dancing around the issues. For someone who quite clearly told me to leave your personal opinions out of things you certainly have no problem steamrolling me and mine.

Its also hilarious to me that we both claim drza's post represents our own feelings in regard to Dirk's team with the added caveat from me that the first "moneyball" attempt didnt quite get it right and that the 06 finals trip was more the outlier than the 07 GSW meltdown.

And yeah I fell like I should know more about the Mavericks considering I have obsessively followed them since Harp's rookie year and was a fan from the dawn of the franchise. I dont mean to demean your knowledge of them in any way. Just like I disagree with a lot of what Mattya has posted itt but I would defer to his Wolves knowledge as being greater than mine. I intended no slight to you.

[tsherkin]

Will respond when I walk home but Chuck, I'm not visiting opinion on you the poster, I'm discussing the content of your post. It's not the same as what you did before.

I think we both agree that there were reasons beyond "Hurrr, Dirk choked!" for the Mavs not doing more from 05-07. I was happy with their 2nd round performance and pleasantly surprised by the Finals run. 07 stung, but the Warriors were no crap-ball team that year.

BD, S-Jax and Richardson ripped the Mavs apart in that series, not that I need to remind you. They'd have likely lost no matter what Dirk got up to.

The reason I think it's irrelevant to this discussion is not to do with you as a poster, it's that it is logically disconnected from the comparison. I will expand when I am not walking home.

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