Moneyball - taking high % shots

[fatlever]

Dunlap is spending a lot of time talking about taking high percentage shots and avoiding low percentage shots, such as long 2-point shots - 18-20 foot range. Bonnell wrote a blog about this today.

How do you think this will impact our overall offense? who stands to benefit the most? the least? Off the top of my head, I am curious how Hendo, Tyrus and Kemba will adapt to taking less mid-range shots. These 3 players seem to love that area from 15-20 feet.

Hendo's best offensive move is coming off that curl for the catch and shoot from 18 feet. Jordan has been asking him to be more aggressive and get to the rim, but that requires Hendo to improve his handles. And of course he has never had much 3pt range, although he mentions it was something he worked on during the summer.

Kemba obviously needs to stop settling for the pull-up jumper and instead take the ball into the paint and try to get to the rim for a layup, get fouled or drive the paint and dish to a big man or kick out to the 3pt line. This is something we have all been screaming about since his arrival. I hate seeing Kemba settle for that mid-range shot just because he got a half-step on his defender. Too many times he was not set, off balance, rushed or not even looking at the rim when he took those shots.

Dunlap mentioned the Bobcats took the most mid-range shots in the NBA last season. Can anyone confirm this? If so, how much was our dreadful FG% related to taking shots from low percentage spots on the floor?

All that being said, I am, at my core, a fan of old school NBA from the 80s which was all about the mid-range game. I loved watching guys like Sam Cassell and Alex English make a living from the mid-range game.

Here is the link to Bonnell's blog
http://blogs.charlotte.com/inside_the_n ... unlap.html

“We really want to play off the rim, the paint and the open 3(-pointer). I’m not big on middle jumpers,’’ Dunlap said. “The Bobcats took more of them last year than anybody in the NBA. They’re the least valuable shot you can get, where the most valuable is the free throw.’’

“You need to attack the rim in one manner or another. Getting to the free throw-line says that you’re doing a lot right.’’

[BigSlam]

Mully is licking his chops.

3 ball city baby!!

[StitchJones]

It's really the same philosophy you see with the Denver nuggets and George Karl. he wants his guys aggressively attacking the basket and shooting open 3's.

[fatlever]

the nuggets would be an ideal team for us to model, a team w/out a real superstar, but with depth, hustle and 12 guys buying into a coaching style that rewards hustle and being in shape. of course, they have the added benefit of playing at 5000 feet. makes sense for dunlap to model the nuggets since he spent time under karl.

[KembaWalker]

Sounds like a good plan in theory till you realize the reason we took so many low % mid range shots is because thats all we could get. Mully, DJW, Tyrus, Doris etc had no ability to mix it up in the paint...Henderson can't slash with his handles..DJ and Kemba are too tiny to drive in consistently. MKG should help us in that area but we still need some paint scoring badly, preferably from a post up big. Pretty rare find nowadays obviously

[fatlever]

taking this moneyball think a little further...

what are some common ideas, practices, plays in the NBA that if examined statistically would be found as bad ideas or inefficient? I am reading the soccer equivalent of moneyball, a book called "soccernomics". an example of common practice found to be inefficient by stats is taking corner kicks that curve away from the goal rather than towards the goal - outswinging vs inswinging. outswinging kicks often produce dramatic, amazing goals, however inswinging kicks have a higher probability of resulting in a goal. many managers still opt for outswinging corners despite stats suggesting otherwise, perhaps because they produce more memorable goals.

in the NBA i would love to see a coach tell his team to not high five or touch hands between free throws. i bet if you took 1000 players and had them take 2000 free throw, 1000 touching hands between shots and 1000 not, they would have a higher % when they didnt touch hands. am i crazy for thinking that?

what do the stats say about leading by 3 with only a few seconds left? foul and let player take 2 free throws or no foul and defend the 3pt line?

what about the success of hiring former players as GMs vs hiring somone like Cho? I never understood the logic of thinking that a former player was more qualified to run an NBA team compared to someone with the business credentials and business experience. If any GM embraces the moneyball philosophy its Cho and his magical computer.

thoughts?

[fatlever]

Sounds like a good plan in theory till you realize the reason we took so many low % mid range shots is because thats all we could get. Mully, DJW, Tyrus, Doris etc had no ability to mix it up in the paint...Henderson can't slash with his handles..DJ and Kemba are too tiny to drive in consistently. MKG should help us in that area but we still need some paint scoring badly, preferably from a post up big. Pretty rare find nowadays obviously

it was also definitely partly by design (or poor design of Silas' offense). 1) we werent running out on fast breaks which limited our easy layups. 2) he was imploring players to take the 1st open shot, which is often a mid-range jumper because that is what the defense will give you. 3) we usually kept our bigs out away from the basket as part of the UCLA high post offense. now biz, mully, white, diop and tyrus certainly arent great post up guys, but we rarely even tried to force the ball inside to them. I can recall many times hearing silas talk about encouraging tyrus to take that open 18 footer or to hear him encourage kemba to take the open mid-range shot.

[penquin11]

I think this will benefit Kemba Walker quite a bit, as while he loves the midrange game it doesn't always love him back. If he soaks up what Dunlap is preaching then we could see him drawing more fouls and taking better shots inside.

[StitchJones]

Kemba to an extent should definitely pattern his game after Ty Lawson. Ty is not a big point guard, but he uses his speed to get to the lane and score or draw fouls and he's made himself an above average three point shooter. Because of this teams can lag off of him and the nuggets maintain great spacing even when they have to play in the half court set.

As far as playing the style Dunlap wants to play i would imagine MKG, Kemba, BG, and Taylor could adapt quick. Heywood and Biyambo will be fine because they cant run the floor and block shots. Session, Henderson, Tyrus may have some trouble adjusting though.

[doc.end]

I have always thought fromer players are hired as GM for their contacts, image around the league, respect whatever and for PR. And of course they may be knowledgeable once in a time. They know the business from the other side that may help in negotating/recruiting. But coach positions seems to be more natural for them I think.

[Felton for Pres]

I think there is a little simplicity in the math. do we know how the math factors in how the defense contests the shots? i agree, i'd rather have an uncontested 3 over an uncontested 18fter. i'd probably rather have an open 18fter than a contested 3. given the league view on mid-range shots, i'd bet its easier to find an open 18fter since defenders are more likely to crowd the 3pt line. i just wonder if all the right variables are factored into the math. given how stats have evolved, i'd bet these numbers are out there.

the thing that moneyball got to the heart of was value. in the book, defense and stolen bases were something teams were paying top dollar for. thanks to the book, beane said (sometime in the last 2yrs) that defense and stolen bases had value again. part of me wonders if the same thing has happened on mid-range jumpers. everyone is focusing on trying to stop the 3 and the interior because of the perception of mid-range j's being inefficient.

[therebirth]

Don't kill me but this coach's talk is starting to remind me of Rick Pitino. We will see what happens.

[Liver_Pooty]

Don't kill me but this coach's talk is starting to remind me of Rick Pitino. We will see what happens.

If he decides to press 70% of the time hes going to have results like Rick Pitino did as well.

He seems to know what hes doing, but Ill wait and make my judgements when the regular season starts. I've been through too many new football coaches stating such things as "were going to blitz, put a ton of pressure on the QB" etc, then when the season begins they do the complete opposite.