#28 Highest Peak of All Time (Penny '96 wins)

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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#41 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:07 am

Lightning25 wrote:Anyways, Doctor MJ, who do you have as your next 5? Durant in the mix? Yao any time soon?


Guys most on my mind right now:

Howard
McHale
Barry
Pettit
Gilmore
Frazier
Reed
Cowens
KJ
Durant

Re: Yao. Hard to imagine. He just seems like a guy who only got enough to be relevant once he became to fragile to stay healthy. It's true I let injuries slide in some cases, like when a guy misses regular season time but dominates in a deep playoff run, but I can't really see doing that for Yao.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#42 » by Lightning25 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:44 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Re: Yao. Hard to imagine. He just seems like a guy who only got enough to be relevant once he became to fragile to stay healthy. It's true I let injuries slide in some cases, like when a guy misses regular season time but dominates in a deep playoff run, but I can't really see doing that for Yao.

I don't think that's fair to say. He was pretty good in that 2007 playoffs for the most part, 25/10 with 55% TS%, while his shooting efficiency was below average for his standards that is still pretty decent. Jazz were a bad matchup for him defensively with Boozer and Okur. Boozer being too quick and Okur being a 3 point shooter. I've always viewed Yao as a Shaq like defender, someone that anchored the interior and was a great post defender but had trouble against agile/perimeter players and also pick and rolls.

Plus, Yao's injury in 2007 was a freak accident, it wasn't a stress fracture like it was in 2008 and 2009 although you could also argue that Yao's peak was in 2009 since he did play the entire season and carried the Rockets. He ended up missing the last 3-4 games of the WCSF vs. the Lakers but he was still quite dominant that season.

Maybe TMACFORMVP could come back and explain more considering how he is a Rockets fan but that's just my own two cents.

I see him in the top 35-40 personally and I think he should definitely make the top 50 at the very least.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#43 » by therealbig3 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:03 am

No Penny, Doctor MJ??

I'm probably leaning Penny right now actually. He had a great regular season, great playoffs which included giving Pippen/Jordan fits (two of the best perimeter defenders ever), and he had an incredible balance of knowing when to score and when to create. Rarely turned the ball over as well. He was basically T-Mac before T-Mac, except with lower volume and better efficiency.

And look at how the Magic offense did in the 28 games Shaq missed:

111.1 ORating vs 107.2 DRating (+3.9). That would have ranked them 4th in the league offensively over the course of a full season.

Penny's individual numbers in those 28 games, per 36:

24.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 6.1 apg, 2.9 TOpg, 62.5% TS

That's pretty darn impressive to me. Effortlessly turned up his scoring to over 24 pp36 on ridiculous efficiency, and made sure Orlando was still a top 5 offense. There aren't too many 2nd options that could do that without their 1st option, let alone when that 1st option was Shaq.

I'll make it official actually, it's between Penny and McHale for me, and I'm pretty sold on Penny:

Vote: 96 Penny
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#44 » by therealbig3 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:07 am

BTW, what about Bob McAdoo? He had a ridiculous peak in 75.

Not saying he should go soon, but I'm wondering how people view him when we get towards the end of the project?
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#45 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:47 am

Lightning25 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Re: Yao. Hard to imagine. He just seems like a guy who only got enough to be relevant once he became to fragile to stay healthy. It's true I let injuries slide in some cases, like when a guy misses regular season time but dominates in a deep playoff run, but I can't really see doing that for Yao.


I don't think that's fair to say. He was pretty good in that 2007 playoffs for the most part, 25/10 with 55% TS%, while his shooting efficiency was below average for his standards that is still pretty decent. Jazz were a bad matchup for him defensively with Boozer and Okur. Boozer being too quick and Okur being a 3 point shooter. I've always viewed Yao as a Shaq like defender, someone that anchored the interior and was a great post defender but had trouble against agile/perimeter players and also pick and rolls.

Plus, Yao's injury in 2007 was a freak accident, it wasn't a stress fracture like it was in 2008 and 2009 although you could also argue that Yao's peak was in 2009 since he did play the entire season and carried the Rockets. He ended up missing the last 3-4 games of the WCSF vs. the Lakers but he was still quite dominant that season.

Maybe TMACFORMVP could come back and explain more considering how he is a Rockets fan but that's just my own two cents.

I see him in the top 35-40 personally and I think he should definitely make the top 50 at the very least.


I don't know what precisely you mean by "fair". if you mean that it unfair to ignore regular season injuries only for guys who accomplish a ton in the playoffs, I suppose I'd say, "Sure, but that's life."

When you have a Walton or a West, at their peak, it just becomes pretty clear to me that they could operate in a super-dominant fashion on the best stage, and it seems silly to focus on the regular season when it didn't really affect in any negative way what happened in the playoffs.

However, when you're talking about judging a first round exit guy, to me the regular season is easily the most important thing to consider. I can't quite fathom the notion that you rate a guy extremely positively primarily what he does against matchup against 1 team where his team loses over an 82 game season played against 29 other teams.

Put another way: Before the playoffs start, we rate a player based on his regular season performance to get MVP rankings. You're basically never going to find a situation where a guy is nowhere near that list, his team loses in the first round, and all of a sudden he'd get catapulted in people's minds to have a Top 3 year.

Yao was never anything close to an MVP candidate, and he was never the talk of a post-season. To my mind, we're still quite a ways away form really needed to consider guys like that.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#46 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:52 am

therealbig3 wrote:No Penny, Doctor MJ??

I'm probably leaning Penny right now actually. He had a great regular season, great playoffs which included giving Pippen/Jordan fits (two of the best perimeter defenders ever), and he had an incredible balance of knowing when to score and when to create. Rarely turned the ball over as well. He was basically T-Mac before T-Mac, except with lower volume and better efficiency.

And look at how the Magic offense did in the 28 games Shaq missed:

111.1 ORating vs 107.2 DRating (+3.9). That would have ranked them 4th in the league offensively over the course of a full season.

Penny's individual numbers in those 28 games:

24.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 6.1 apg, 2.9 TOpg, 62.5% TS

That's pretty darn impressive to me. Effortlessly turned up his scoring to over 24 pp36 on ridiculous efficiency, and made sure Orlando was still a top 5 offense. There aren't too many 2nd options that could do that without their 1st option, let alone when that 1st option was Shaq.

I'll make it official actually, it's between Penny and McHale for me, and I'm pretty sold on Penny:

Vote: 96 Penny


Huh, interesting. I have to confess I'm always a bit skeptical about Penny. He certainly did keep the ship afloat without Shaq during that stretch, and injuries certainly were a factor in his later issues, however sometimes teams seem to be able to get super-hyped to pick up the slack when a star goes out, and never mind the possible luck factor on the sample size but of course the team sure didn't do anything like maintain once Shaq was truly gone.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#47 » by Lightning25 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:54 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Yao was never anything close to an MVP candidate, and he was never the talk of a post-season. To my mind, we're still quite a ways away form really needed to consider guys like that.

Before he suffered that knee injury in the '06-'07 season, Yao was actually the favorite to win the MVP. Plenty of articles, news clippings, etc. show that. Yao suffered a pretty lengthy injury, so long that people forgot all about him in the MVP race. It didn't help his MVP case that Tmac picked up the slack and he had the best backup C in the league with Mutombo.

It sounds like you would be in favor of 09 Yao though opposed to 07, if you had to choose one which one would it be?

And how far away do you suggest then? After your guys that you had listed earlier?
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#48 » by ardee » Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:27 am

Ok, so exams are done, meaning I'll be able to participate more right when the project is going to get interesting with a whole glut of high sing wings :D

Posting my thoughts from the previous thread, which I think was too late for anyone to notice:


I think I'm going to go with Baylor. Picking a year is a tough call now. That '61 year stands out for his absurd Playoff performances. Remember, this was a very bad Laker team, and he dragged them to within 2 points of the Finals. His box score numbers, from BBR:

Vs. the Bailey Howell and Gene Shue led Pistons

40 points, 6-7 FT, 17 field goals made.
49 points, 15-20 FT, 17 field goals made.
26 points, 8-9 FT, 9 field goals made
47 points, 13-14 FT, 17 field goals made.
35 points, 9-12 FT, 13 field goals made.

Vs. the Bob Pettit Hawks

44 points, 13 rebounds, 18-31 FG and 8-13 FT.
35 points, 9 rebounds, 13-28 FG and 9-10 FT.
25 points, 18 rebounds, 7-22 FG but 11-13 FT. (Probably his shooting worst game, but he still got to the line at will and crashed the boards)
31 points, 15 rebounds, 12-24 FG and 7-9 FT. One point loss.
47 points, 20 rebounds, 17-45 FG, 13-16 from the line. Forget the extra shots, considering the pace being played at. Series tied 2-2, you're coming off a devastating loss, and you respond with THIS? Major props right there in my book.
39 points, 21 rebounds, 14-30 FG, 11-12 from the line. One point loss. ZERO help from his team-mates, they shot 35% from the field.
39 points, 12 rebounds, 16-36 from the field, 7-7 from the line. Two point loss. Team-mates shoot 35% again.

So, against a 51-28 team that had the second best defense in the league after the Cs (there was a pretty big gap between 2nd and 3rd), Baylor averages 37-15 on 52% TS. With zero offensive help. I mean literally zero. Look at the roster that year, West was a rookie, the team should have been going nowhere.

'62 Baylor vs. '61 Baylor is like '64 Oscar vs. '63 Oscar, except Baylor had 30 odd games missed due to military duty.

Tough call, but the Playoffs in '61 sway me. That team should not have been as close to the Finals as they were. Period.

Vote: 1961 Elgin Baylor



I crunched some more numbers, and figured out Baylor's averages for the Detroit series, so brace yourselves.... 39.4 ppg, 15 rpg on 50% from the field, and 57% TS!!!! Now how's that for being inefficient :D

Baylor scored on ungodly volumes, and according to the method Positivity suggested for measuring efficiency, he was +14 TS% over the league average eFG% for the Playoffs, and +17 for that series! Even against the Hawks, an 89.2 DRtg team, he managed 37-15 on +12% TS!

He had West playing decent (21-8-4 on 49% from the field, just 2% more efficient then Baylor himself), but other then that, every single one of his team-mates were sub-15 PER players.

Remind you of a situation? Impossible volume scoring, video game numbers, dragging a terrible team with little to no help to the Conference Finals and losing because an opposing big man explodes?

I'll give you a hint. It happened three years ago in Cleveland.

So, again.

Vote: 1961 Elgin Baylor
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#49 » by C-izMe » Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:19 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:No Penny, Doctor MJ??

I'm probably leaning Penny right now actually. He had a great regular season, great playoffs which included giving Pippen/Jordan fits (two of the best perimeter defenders ever), and he had an incredible balance of knowing when to score and when to create. Rarely turned the ball over as well. He was basically T-Mac before T-Mac, except with lower volume and better efficiency.

And look at how the Magic offense did in the 28 games Shaq missed:

111.1 ORating vs 107.2 DRating (+3.9). That would have ranked them 4th in the league offensively over the course of a full season.

Penny's individual numbers in those 28 games:

24.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 6.1 apg, 2.9 TOpg, 62.5% TS

That's pretty darn impressive to me. Effortlessly turned up his scoring to over 24 pp36 on ridiculous efficiency, and made sure Orlando was still a top 5 offense. There aren't too many 2nd options that could do that without their 1st option, let alone when that 1st option was Shaq.

I'll make it official actually, it's between Penny and McHale for me, and I'm pretty sold on Penny:

Vote: 96 Penny


Huh, interesting. I have to confess I'm always a bit skeptical about Penny. He certainly did keep the ship afloat without Shaq during that stretch, and injuries certainly were a factor in his later issues, however sometimes teams seem to be able to get super-hyped to pick up the slack when a star goes out, and never mind the possible luck factor on the sample size but of course the team sure didn't do anything like maintain once Shaq was truly gone.

28 games is third of the season. That's a great sample size. Also in 97 (23 games missed) they were -7.8 MOV without him and +2.5 with him. +10.3 is beyond spectacular.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#50 » by Lightning25 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 5:58 pm

Vote tally

2009 Howard - Dr. Positivity
2011 Howard - Doctor MJ, ElGee
2012 Durant - Lightning25
1987 Mchale - C-Mizle
1996 Penny - JordansBulls, therealbig3
1962 Baylor - PTB Fan

If It came down to Penny and Howard, I'm really not sure who to go with. I would think Dwight but I'd like to hear more Penny arguments. Also, what about Grant Hill? What separates Penny from Hill?
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#51 » by ardee » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:09 pm

Lightning25 wrote:Vote tally

2009 Howard - Dr. Positivity
2011 Howard - Doctor MJ, ElGee
2012 Durant - Lightning25
1987 Mchale - C-Mizle
1996 Penny - JordansBulls, therealbig3
1962 Baylor - PTB Fan

If It came down to Penny and Howard, I'm really not sure who to go with. I would think Dwight but I'd like to hear more Penny arguments. Also, what about Grant Hill? What separates Penny from Hill?


I voted '61 Baylor, but am willing to switch to '62 if it gains traction.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#52 » by Dr Positivity » Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:36 pm

Alright, I'm changing my vote to 1996 Penny. His combination of size, speed, and feel makes him a pretty clear superstar wing talent, and unlike McHale and Durant he's both scorer and playmaker.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#53 » by Lightning25 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:45 pm

Can you guys explain the Penny over Hill argument? I've always felt that Hill was better than Penny and it seems like statistically this is the case as well.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#54 » by therealbig3 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:02 pm

To me, it comes down to me trusting Penny a hell of a lot more in the playoffs. Hill never really played all that great in the playoffs, because he never really showed the ability to step up his volume scoring. When he did (97), his efficiency dipped under 50% TS. His only real efficient playoffs was 96, and his production wasn't that great, let alone it was only 3 games.

Penny from 95-97 was always really efficient in the playoffs, and he stepped up his scoring big time in 97 when he needed to. He proved more than Hill that he had an extra gear he could go to in the playoffs.

So as offensive players, I'd give Penny the clear edge (also keep in mind his TO rate compared to Hill). Hill was a better defender and rebounder, but I don't even think he was that great of a defender at his offensive peak. Still better than Penny (who was decent himself), but I actually think he's become better defensively as he got older and became more of a spot-up shooter on offense. I don't think Hill's defense and rebounding compensates for Penny's scoring and creation.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#55 » by C-izMe » Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:29 pm

I think I'm switching my vote to Penny 96. The more I think about it the more "on par" he is with McHale as a second option. Then I hunk about them as first options and I have McHale (I have no idea how he would be other than hypotheticals) and Penny (28 games in 96 and 60+ in 97) and the answer gets clearer.

I really loved how in control Penny was at all times. He was nearly at Chris Paul levels in turnover prevention and he could be passive and assert his will on the game at the same time. He also had a wide arsenal of moves and could control the game pace like only a few others could.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHJjmJTNFTA[/youtube]

I also watched a old Penny/Iverson game from 97 where Penny had 30/7. Maybe it's on YouTube but he completely controlled the game.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#56 » by ardee » Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:50 pm

PTB Fan, would you consider changing your vote to '61 Baylor?
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#57 » by SDChargers#1 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:53 pm

I got to go with 1961 Elgin Baylor on this one. The guy put up 38/17/5 in the regular season and 38/15/4 in the postseason. His efficiency went up in the playoffs (50% TS to 54%).

The fact that he was slightly inefficient (and not inefficient at all if we take into account era) is not enough of a reason to sway me.

Vote: 1961 Elgin Baylor
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#58 » by therealbig3 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:22 pm

It's like people don't understand the concept of pace, and how 38/15 in 1961 is not the same as 38/15 in 2012. Just using a minutes adjustment, Baylor's numbers don't look super-godly anymore, other than rebounding.

Baylor not recognizing West's talent in later years and appropriately dialing back his volume shooting IS a legitimate knock on him, because it's a big knock on his portability.

He was a poor defender. He racked up assists, but he wasn't really a willing passer, as his years with West proved, and come on, I know people have recognized that we've seen people that put up big scoring numbers (even with efficiency) that are just not helping their teams that much (Wilt, Dantley, Melo, etc.). Based on everything I've read and seen, I have no reason to think Baylor isn't like those guys. The Lakers showed improvement the very next year, a year when Baylor had military duty and missed 34 games while West took on a bigger role.

And it's also disingenuous to gloss over how good a rookie West still was, especially in the playoffs.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#59 » by fatal9 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:38 pm

Westbrook is not who makes OKC a great offense, I think it's crazy to suggest that. He's the third best guy on the team to run the offense through but has the highest usage because that's the type of style he plays (needs ball in his hands to be effective). OKC isn't allocating their offense efficiently right now (especially early in games, I think Durant takes too much of a step back), but the bigger concern with them has been that they are a really inexperienced team defensively (they failed defensively again Miami). OKC was still a 50-55 win team and top 5 offense before Harden emerged as a legit star, and this is without Durant making the noticeable leap he made last year. Harden plays hand picked minutes for most of the game. I won't penalize him too much for playing half his minutes against inferior bench lineups because he plays well against starters too, but his minutes and role can be adjusted with how well he's playing. If he's having a good game, he might play 35 minutes, if he's having a bad game, he might only play 25. If he's having a good game, the offense might run through him more, if he's having a bad game, it might run through him less. That type of role allows him to maximize his offensive impact on the game. He has a different role than Durant, isn't depended on to carry as much of the load night in night out. And he was erratic in the playoffs too. Harden can have games where he can have 5/0/3 on 2/6 shooting, 12/6/3 on 2/11 shooting, 10/4/4 on 3/10 shooting, 13/3/2 on 4/13 shooting...and Thunder can still win those games against top teams in the playoffs, Durant can't. I see the value in Harden, think he's a borderline first option player on playoff teams, and definitely feel he's the second best offensive player on the Thunder but we're going overboard here.

And aren't we measuring how well players elevate GOOD teams, especially in the playoffs? Even if we buy that Durant is not a great guy to run an offense through or score without other threats (i disagree, because his one on one scoring is being immensely underrated), unless he's playing with completely incompetent players, there's no way you can keep a scorer like Durant from getting his. He can take and make a shot from anywhere on the floor. He was one of deadliest pullup jumpers ever because of his release point and shooting ability. He improved his handles last year. Became better at involving other guys in the offense. He isn't a guy who makes players better in a "I'm going to break your defense down and make plays" type of way (even though he improved that aspect of his game), but he makes them better in a similar way to Dirk, he's unselfish, passes well enough to get the ball where it needs to go (especially last year) and provides spacing for other players so they can play their game and create plays for a guy who can knock down shots. This is BIG for OKC because they are a terrible 3 point shooting team outside of Durant...did no one watch how bad their offense looked a year ago when he missed a few games? OKC without Durant would be a pretty brutal team offensively, average at best, because on top of taking away the league's most efficient volume scorer, they would have no spacing at all. And on top of scoring well in context of the team, he has another gear where when you ask him to score, he can absolutely take over games against any type of opponent. And we saw that in the playoffs last year and in the regular season all year. That's what separates him from guys who are just shooters like Reggie. Those guys can't take over games offensively like Durant does. They let the defense dictate what type of shots they get. There's a whole host of things that separate Durant from Miller, it's absurd to label Durant as just a shooter.

Mentioned reasons I liked Durant over Pippen/Howard in last thread. I like him over Penny because as I've been saying, Durant's offensive impact is super portable because his off ball ability (and he has great one on one scoring ability to couple that with and doesn't hold the ball to score either). Durant is more dangerous if he's playing with other talented perimeter players because he is better at playing off them (we saw this in the Olympics and see this with OKC). And similarly, I think he's more dangerous with someone like Shaq because again, he can absolute thrive scoring wise off the attention he gets because of his catch and shoot ability (combined with ability to take over games at the end with his scoring). Penny is better in situations where you need a creator and has more value on lower to mid-level talent teams, but is he good enough to raise those teams to legitimate contender status? The guys who can do that (LeBron, Bird, maybe guys like T-Mac, West and Kobe) already went a while ago. Defensively I think it's a wash, offensively their impact is on the same level to me but the edge goes to Durant because I see him making more of an offensive impact if he is around other players who need the ball (like you do on championship type teams) because he makes huge off ball impact on offense.


Doesn't seem like he has traction in this thread so I'm going to vote for 2011 Dwight Howard who I have in a virtual tie with him. Way too early for Baylor for me.
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Re: #28 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Sat 9:00 PM Pacific) 

Post#60 » by fatal9 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:46 pm

And Gervin is better than him...really? He was voted the worst defender in league history in a '96 poll with league officials (obviously there were scrubs who were worse, but out of notable players). He played on teams that played at a super high pace, got a lot of his points in that up and down style of knocking down transition and semi-transition midrange jumpers and layups. Not to say he wasn't a good half court scorer, he had a really nice midrange shot, turnaround jumper and sweet touch around the basket, but if you're going to bring up scoring per 36 minutes, the type of environment they played in is a lot different. 30 points in a run and gun game where your team is averaging (and also giving up) 115-120 ppg isn't quite impactful as it looks initially. And still he wasn't as efficient to league average as Durant was. And Gervin was a much worse rebounder, pretty terrible actually for his size/position, probably because he was running up the court as soon as shot went up to try and score. So how is his portability on a defense oriented half court team? He'd be a good scorer sure, but is he as effective as Durant? What about his defense? What exactly is the argument for him over Durant? I can't think of anything that actually matters that he does better than him.

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