Trade Idea: Kanter to ATL for picks

[idajazz]

5

[erudite23]

. He'll be 20 next year. There's nothing to see here. He's far more valuable to us than he is to anyone else, so a trade will never and would never happen. Nothing to see here.

He turned 20 this May already.

.....which will make him 20 for all of next year. Which was my point.

[erudite23]

Luigi.
go back and read erudites post, then read it again and really try and wrap your mind around what he said.

Given what was going in the NBA with the lockout, and the circumstances that Kanter came into the league under, I think he actually showed above what was expected.

I think a big plate of crow could be in your future.

So is that two appearances? Three?

You're missing the forest for the trees. Enes is not likely to be a perennial shoe-in for the All Star game like a Duncan, Garnett, Dwight, Dirk etc. But I think there's a great shot that he is a Pau Gasol level player. Gasol barely made the team once as a 12th man type in his 6 years in Memphis. But suddenly he is traded to LA, makes them into a contender and rips off three straight appearances. He didn't suddenly become better, but he looked better in the system, had more help and got more recognition as part of a high profile organization.

So how many All Star berths will Kanter get? Who knows? And who cares? They are not a good measure of the quality of a player. Deron Williams didn't make an All Star team until his 5th season, but he was almost universally regarded as a top 10 player in the league two full years before that. If he had been on LA or part of a team that didn't start off as rocky was we did a couple of those years, he would have been a shoe in. Its stupid.

Kanter has a chance to be a Pau Gasol caliber player. The second best player on a championship team, an offensive and rebounding force, and a core player for your team. I don't think he ever becomes the player you build your whole team around. If he is caught in a situation where he is expected to be that, it could ruin his career. But a guy that can show what he showed last year is rarely going to bust. You are acting like the typical, stupid, rash and impatient casual NBA fan. You don't want to wait. You don't want explanations. You just want to dominate and you want it right now.

Well, go root for LA. Because that's the only place in the NBA that can afford to have that attitude. Everywhere else, you build slowly and deliberately and wait for that one golden opportunity to come along. The great teams and FOs, knock it out of the park when it does. But you can't know in advance. The Jazz are making the right moves. We'll see how it plays out.

[AK47MVP]

.....which will make him 20 for all of next year. Which was my point.

Next year or season? Next year in May he will be 21. If you think Jazz will finish the season before May, then yes, he will be 20 all season.

[Luigi]

5

We'll have to wait and see if I eat any crow or not...

You're missing the forest for the trees. Enes is not likely to be a perennial shoe-in for the All Star game like a Duncan, Garnett, Dwight, Dirk etc. But I think there's a great shot that he is a Pau Gasol level player. Gasol barely made the team once as a 12th man type in his 6 years in Memphis. But suddenly he is traded to LA, makes them into a contender and rips off three straight appearances. He didn't suddenly become better, but he looked better in the system, had more help and got more recognition as part of a high profile organization.

So how many All Star berths will Kanter get? Who knows? And who cares? They are not a good measure of the quality of a player. Deron Williams didn't make an All Star team until his 5th season, but he was almost universally regarded as a top 10 player in the league two full years before that. If he had been on LA or part of a team that didn't start off as rocky was we did a couple of those years, he would have been a shoe in. Its stupid.

Kanter has a chance to be a Pau Gasol caliber player. The second best player on a championship team, an offensive and rebounding force, and a core player for your team. I don't think he ever becomes the player you build your whole team around. If he is caught in a situation where he is expected to be that, it could ruin his career. But a guy that can show what he showed last year is rarely going to bust. You are acting like the typical, stupid, rash and impatient casual NBA fan. You don't want to wait. You don't want explanations. You just want to dominate and you want it right now.

Well, go root for LA. Because that's the only place in the NBA that can afford to have that attitude. Everywhere else, you build slowly and deliberately and wait for that one golden opportunity to come along. The great teams and FOs, knock it out of the park when it does. But you can't know in advance. The Jazz are making the right moves. We'll see how it plays out.

First, I'll thank you to focus on argumentation instead of insults and psychoanalysis. Your user name suggests that's what you value.

This thread has been a debate about (a) Kanter's expected future, (b) his current ability, and (c) how that relates to expectations for future progress.

Nobody seems to have a shared understanding of (a). That is why I pressed so hard to get an objective measure out there like all-star appearances. You have pointed out the weaknesses of that measure, which are obvious, but you haven't supplied an alternative. (I would note that Williams was snubbed many times, and everyone knew it, and Pau proved that people worry about empty stats and showing up for a winning team matters, but that's all really just a footnote. Winning teams get their top players onto the team, and that's where we all want Utah going. If you insist that we talk about (a) in some other terms than all-star appearances, propose something and compare it.)

We've had a good enough discussion of (b) here. We've talked about valuable scoring metrics, and how those metrics can be interpreted in a broader view of Kanter's gameplay and style. There's room for disagreement, but I think we're generally being reasonable.

We haven't made any progress on (c). I think that's because we hadn't fixed a shared idea of (a).

Now, I'm predicting that Kanter isn't going to make it to that Pau level. I happen to think 3 first round picks is more valuable than the future I think Kanter will achieve. I hope that's not too offensive. Yes, I'm selling on him early, but that's what happens when you broker in potential.

Let me explain my reasoning. Pau was a force of his own, the focal point of a team, before he got traded. I doubt anyone expects Kanter to pass Favors, so I don't think there's a worry about Kanter's career being ruined by being overstressed. I think Kanter will be a starting center for a good stretch of his career. But that's the kind of guy you trade for 3 late first rounders, especially when you are looking for a real focal point. I'm also giving up on Favors being the focal point, too, but I think he has a better career than Kanter. 3 firsts is the kind of asset you need to get a real franchise player. That's what we need. We have great rotation guys in development in Favors, Kanter, Hayward, and hopefully Burks and maybe even Williams. They're not even great rotation guys today, but they're on their way to being quality NBA players. But you need a franchise guy to get anything done in the playoffs. So,when it comes to losing a future rotation center (who does have upside) in order to gain 3 firsts, I take the gamble. 3 firsts is the kind of thing that gives you the power to try to land a franchise player trade, or else keep the youth movement alive until you find another regular all-star. We have all the trimmings, but we need that Thanksgiving turkey to put in the middle.

[erudite23]

You make a good point. Your entire argument is based around the fact that a 19 year old big didn't blow your socks off. Expecting him to is/was rather foolish. They almost never do. The list is basically.....um, Dwight Howard, and even he didn't dominate.

If you look at the numbers, Kanter's performance is in line with Chris Bosh, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Tyson Chandler, NeNe Hilario, Andrew Bogut, Joakim Noah, Al Horford et al, in terms of rookie PER and I think those players pretty much give you a good wheelhouse for where he will end up. Second tier star is a reasonable projection based upon the evidence that we have to hand. There is a chance he comes a 1st tier star and a chance he is just an average starter.

The problem is expectations. People simply don't understand how to measure rookies. The biggest contributor is simply the ridiculous youth and inexperience that most of them possess coming in. Understanding roles and the way they shape a player's career is another factor. And projecting future performance is tricky in the best of situations.

The problem in your argument lies in the fact that there is this great mysterious turkey out there to be had--seriously, when was the last time a great player switched teams and ended up on a small market team like the Jazz?--but that Kanter does not have it within him to be that. Of course its likely that he doesn't become that. But its reasonable to think that he CAN. And even if he doesn't become that, and instead becomes a borderline All Star, that's still an incredibly valuable chip in a trade scenario. After all, Al Jefferson is not anything special, yet the 'potential' he possessed as a 22 year old young big guy was enough to build a deal for KG around.

Your argument is simply flawed. The Jazz will never be able to use three late firsts to flip for an established super star. That's not going to be us. Meanwhile, there is a chance, however faint, that Kanter becomes that guy and--failing that--at worst becomes a solid starter. The only argument to be made here is that a player like that helps you become mediocre-to-good and never great, so getting rid of him will help us suck and get higher draft picks for the future. Which is dumb, because getting worse is the easiest thing to do in the world. You can do it at any time.

No, this trade is ridiculous. If we're trading Kanter, we can get a better return than 3 1sts in the 20s.

[aoik]

Hey, just one question.

I know that Bynum and Kanter have different type of bodies. But can not we compare them?
Bynum is today the 2nd/3rd best center. Did he dominate from the begin on?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... game::none
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... game::none

Bynum's first 2 years werent that good. His third year he began to domite but he could not play many games.

28.8 mins 10.2 rbs 13.1 pts

Can't Kanter get these stats on his third year when he ll get enough minutes to play?

Of course, stats dont show how a player is like for example how he defends, or if he is usefull but there is a good examlpe of Bynum. Why is Kanter a bust? Because he was draftet as third?

Kanter will not be Malone but he can be easily the third best man in a team like Bosh in Miami.

What do you expect @Luigi?

[Luigi]

I don't think it's fair to say my argument rests on our judgment differences. That's a caricature of my position, at best. Yes, we judge Kanter differently. Is that the only thing that you're objecting to about my position?

I guess you have tried to understand why I would sell on Kanter right now, even if it does seem sarcastic sometimes. For example, Kanter wouldn't have to play like Dwight Howard for me to object to the trade. For that to be true, you'd have to seriously exaggerate my claims about value so far. Bosh, Hilario, Chandler, Cousins, Bogut, Noah, and Horford...it would take a lot of analysis and argument to get a shared idea of these guy's development. Matching up Kanter with any of them would take even more argument and analysis. Whether or not I would trade any of these players in similar circumstances to Kanter is another question. For kicks, put them on the Jazz with Kanter like production...I'll speculate and say I might trade Nene, and I might trade Bogut for this deal. But it's hard to tell really, and it's further obscured by things actually having working out for them elsewhere (with disparate levels of success in different aspects of the game).

I'm glad you admit to a range between starting center to first tier all-star for Kanter. You should acknowledge that an alternative point of view is operating under a different prediction. I think Kanter's floor is pretty clearly below quality starter. There are also questions about his contributions while still on his rookie deal. But I'll defer that discussion. I'll only bring it up to point out that future possibilities multiply quickly, and it's unfair to discount the value of 3 picks and ignore the downsides of Kanter's future possibilities.

But I do think we're also not agreeing on the value of 3 first round picks. It's very easy to overvalue picks. Our fans have been doing it for a while. But I think we've gotten complacent now with a young core. I know I was for a while. But at this point I'm realizing that we have a lot of good players, players who could be starters one day, but I'd be surprised to see many all-star appearances out of any of them. It seems like you acknowledge the need for a true franchise level player for our youth movement to make any noise in the playoffs. This is where my judgment about Kanter's likely future meets up with my argument for making the trade. I see you object to my prediciton, which is fine, but that's not to say my argument is simply flawed, or that it rests entirely on a judgment. That is to interpret uncharitably. However, if you are saying that the best way to acquire that kind of player is to hope for Kanter to turn into it, I'm going to disagree with you. I'd rather get the value of three firsts. Yes, Kanter might turn into that player, but we've talking about probabilities here, and our probability graph projections aren't matching up.

If it's not outlandish to believe Kanter can become a franchise player, then I'd expect you to believe it's not outlandish for the Jazz to get an all star in a deal including first round picks. I'm sure you realize that star power almost always demands picks in return. And I remind you that that picks are valuable beyond that. Maintaining a steady stream of youth while waiting to see if one of our guys turns out to start playing like a young super-star would be prudent. My selling on one piece of our youth movement to try to push it forward doesn't justify your tone, and it doesn't justify your sarcasm about tanking. The trade is not ridiculous. What's reasonable is to acknowledge that there is room for disagreement about Kanter's future. What's obligatory is to admit the need to address the best way to get a real franchise player.

[Luigi]

Hey, just one question.

I know that Bynum and Kanter have different type of bodies. But can not we compare them?
Bynum is today the 2nd/3rd best center. Did he dominate from the begin on?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... game::none
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... game::none

Bynum's first 2 years werent that good. His third year he began to domite but he could not play many games.

28.8 mins 10.2 rbs 13.1 pts

Can't Kanter get these stats on his third year when he ll get enough minutes to play?

Of course, stats dont show how a player is like for example how he defends, or if he is usefull but there is a good examlpe of Bynum. Why is Kanter a bust? Because he was draftet as third?

Kanter will not be Malone but he can be easily the third best man in a team like Bosh in Miami.

What do you expect @Luigi?

This is good data. And yes, the body type is what bothers me. In fact, that might be one of the main reasons I'm willing to move Kanter. I probably have a bias against ground-bound centers. I prefer defenses with a leaper in the middle, so this limits my excitement about Kanter's future.

But I have been careful to not call Kanter a bust. I think he's looking like one right now, and I'd make a trade him for 3 late first rounders, that's all. He still has a wide variety of possible futures, anywhere between good starter to 3rd string veteran center. Lot's of those outcomes wouldn't be considered a bust. I would trade a good starting center for 3 firsts, wouldn't you? Bosh was a max contract guy and first option on a bad team before teaming up in Miami. I'm thinking that's out of reach for Kanter. I'd love it if he proves me wrong. That's different than betting against him.

Bynum's major problem was his conditioning if I remember right. I think he had a hard time breaking 10 in the mile. Once he got off he can and started working out, he could apply his body. Now, if he quits parking in handicapped spots and get's his head together, he could be a super star (as long as his knees hold up). Once Bynum was ready, he went out and took his minutes and demanded his possessions. I'd love it if Kanter goes and does the same. That's what I'll be rooting for, but I don't think it's likely. So I'd cheer if we made a trade of one of our young assets to put us in position to get a real franchise player, and that's kinda how I view this trade scenario.

[Spottieottie]

Ok I'll put myself out there, I think Kanter will at least be as good as Okur. Not in playing style but in production

[falcon107]

Kanter just started to show what he actually is.

I think any Trade idea including him is now out of the table.

If he was selected as third, there must be a reason behind that, and just reading and writing stuff here sometimes not enough to understand that.

[Hoops Addict]

If the Hawks offered Johan Petro and 3 first round picks for Kanter, would y'all be interested?

*There may not be any room for Kanter (Favors/Milsap are the starters for the foreseeable future).
*Kanter's value goes down every year he gets farther away from the draft and doesn't play much.
?

Ha. Looking back...this was a bad trade idea. People that give up on a 19 year old who dominated against the Under 18 U.S. hgih school stars in the McDonalds All Star Game....end up getting fired.

" Kanter's value will keep dropping...trade him now? "Ha!

[Hoops Addict]

If the Hawks offered Johan Petro and 3 first round picks for Kanter, would y'all be interested?

*There may not be any room for Kanter (Favors/Milsap are the starters for the foreseeable future).
*Kanter's value goes down every year he gets farther away from the draft and doesn't play much.
?

Ha. Looking back...this was a bad trade idea. People that give up on a 19 year old who dominated against the Under 18 U.S. hgih school stars in the McDonalds All Star Game....end up getting fired.

" Kanter's value will keep dropping...trade him now? "Ha!

[Ming Kong!]

LOL I have always been pretty happy about Kanter, considering he had to take a whole year off, plus making the transition from the European style to NBA is difficult. BTW, someone said the basically made the high school to NBA jump, but that's not true, he has been playing in leagues since he was 14.

[Luigi]

Kanter just started to show what he actually is.

I think any Trade idea including him is now out of the table.

If he was selected as third, there must be a reason behind that, and just reading and writing stuff here sometimes not enough to understand that.

He's looking good. I'm waiting for the regular season, but the bad taste is out of my mouth now.

[DelaneyRudd]

I hope Kanter gets minutes against a real center this preseason.

[falcon107]

I hope Kanter gets minutes against a real center this preseason.

+1

[Hoops Addict]

LOL I have always been pretty happy about Kanter, considering he had to take a whole year off, plus making the transition from the European style to NBA is difficult. .

Good point. Usually Euro's are 3 point shooters, and soft......and their game does not work well here when they have to play against NBA defenders who are very, very strong.

Kanter's style is not Euro-wuss. He likes to bang.

[aoik]

@Luigi

Do you remember what I wrote 2 months ago?

And do you remember that you wanted to trade him?

Some postings above there are our postings.
------

Last season sometimes I came here to criticize Corbin and Utah.

I was called Homer or something like that. Being a fanboy.

Basicallaly I wanted that Kanter and Favours should get more minutes to play and that Utah should spend the season for the development of these young guys. But some of you were on edge.
Then what did happen? First round knock out.

It is really sad that Jazz did not invest its time to those players last season. And do you know what?
This season it will look same.

It is just preseason and I think some of you guys hype too much Kanter's success. He did not play against good bigs. But he could have played against them last season...

Now everybody is a Kanter-Fan. I tried to tell this last season, that he could be easily a contender for Rookie of the Year if he got the chance everybody got of the Draft 1-10 of 2011. Kyrie got 30+ minutes to play. And Kanter with that minutes would have got a 15/15 maybe. Anyway, lets forget this.

I hope this year Corbin and the Jazz learn from the mistakes of last year.
Jazz still needs to trade some guys away. Or another year of nothing for the young guys.

[Ming Kong!]

@Luigi

Do you remember what I wrote 2 months ago?

And do you remember that you wanted to trade him?

Some postings above there are our postings.
------

Last season sometimes I came here to criticize Corbin and Utah.

I was called Homer or something like that. Being a fanboy.

Basicallaly I wanted that Kanter and Favours should get more minutes to play and that Utah should spend the season for the development of these young guys. But some of you were on edge.
Then what did happen? First round knock out.

It is really sad that Jazz did not invest its time to those players last season. And do you know what?
This season it will look same.

It is just preseason and I think some of you guys hype too much Kanter's success. He did not play against good bigs. But he could have played against them last season...

Now everybody is a Kanter-Fan. I tried to tell this last season, that he could be easily a contender for Rookie of the Year if he got the chance everybody got of the Draft 1-10 of 2011. Kyrie got 30+ minutes to play. And Kanter with that minutes would have got a 15/15 maybe. Anyway, lets forget this.

I hope this year Corbin and the Jazz learn from the mistakes of last year.
Jazz still needs to trade some guys away. Or another year of nothing for the young guys.

Believe me, I wanted to focus on our youth too, but you know how much extra money there is to be earned in the playoffs? Owner wont sit on their hands and watch as a team plays a card which will likely make them miss the playoffs.