Jays actively shopping Yunel Escobar

[LLJ]

Way to trade low. I'm tired of seeing that kind of crap in Toronto.

[Randle McMurphy]

Hech doesn't look ready...not even close. Though even if he did, it wouldn't make Yunel Escobar expendable or make it desirable to sell low on him.

i don't know...
were his #s that much different that Escobar's? and I'd give his first dozen or so games a discount. thought he performed relatively well for the final stretch

Way off Escobar's career numbers and even behind Escobar's poor 2012 as well. He showed nothing offensively in his stint that would lead me to believe he's ready to start at this level.

[IMAN5]

hate to see the jays get less than they should with escobar just cause of the bad publicity.

[Waylon Mercy]

Never been a fan of Escobar remember arguing with someone on here in a GT in May that
Ian Desmond is better but with that said trading Escobar now is the definition of selling low.

[Maddogfromto]

we traded for him when his value was low so I don't see the outrage selling low, I'm getting the sense that it is a small window of opportunity to trade him when his value is high, him being a complete knucklehead and all

[Ado05]

I dont think his value is super low. The market for a SS like him is super thin. But, you wont be getting anything special for him. Id rather keep him around.

[Yosemite Dan]

Escobar is the definition of an average SS in almost every way. Not expecting much for him as he simply isn't worth that much. Even before the eye black thing, he's had the reputation of being a laid back bonehead with an attitude which is why Atlanta had no problem getting rid of him. The rest of the league knows this so there won't be much out there for him.

[spykelee]

The selling low argument is all fine and well, but there's nothing to say he regains his value.

What if he get's off to a bad start, and is replaced by Hech after a month or two, and Hech does an at least comparable job to Esco so he remains the starter. Then Esco starts sulking and popping off about wanting out of town? His value would actually be even worse... You can't always just hold onto guys and assume there value is going to return. If there's a decent deal, with a decent return available this off-season, I'd probably be willing to pull the trigger.

[Wo1verine]

Meh, i rather take that chance and keep Escobar and hope he regains is form from a couple years ago over trading him for a decent deal ( it'd have to be a nice one for me) Perhaps, i'd be more open to trading him if we had a capable replacement, but just going off of Hech's history, it doesn't look good (even though he played well the last little bit of the season! Pitchers will adjust.

[Geddy]

i want to see how Escobar does with a different manager. He just didn't look motivated, and Farrell didn't look like the motivating type.

[Schad]

The selling low argument is all fine and well, but there's nothing to say he regains his value.

What if he get's off to a bad start, and is replaced by Hech after a month or two, and Hech does an at least comparable job to Esco so he remains the starter. Then Esco starts sulking and popping off about wanting out of town? His value would actually be even worse... You can't always just hold onto guys and assume there value is going to return. If there's a decent deal, with a decent return available this off-season, I'd probably be willing to pull the trigger.

Problem is that the return at this moment would be pretty limited...we might get a second-tier prospect, but that's pretty much it. We're not risking much by keeping him and seeing how he performs in the first couple months of 2013.

[MikeM]

Really it makes no sense to trade Yunel from a numbers standpoint. His defensive WAR (using whatever site you want, they all agree I think) actually went up last year from 2011 which helped make up for his 2nd worst O-WAR in his career.

He was still worth his contract last year and we all know he was pretty bad. His contract is just too good to let go. If he gets his bat in order, even just back to .750 OPS you're basically paying $1M per win. The going rate in FA for a win is like $6M.

Personally, I can't wait to see our hitters with a new hitting coach. Imagine if we kept Aaron Hill. Yunel is Aaron Hill v.2 waiting to happen.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Ah yes, Aaron Hill. Oh how I took a beating on this board last year.

I'm just curious to find out what you're all expecting out of Yunel Escobar in a bounce back season? 2009 Yunel? 2011 Yunel?

[BigLeagueChew]

Ah yes, Aaron Hill. Oh how I took a beating on this board last year.

Care to refresh our memory? I'm not sure if his struggles were due to Dwayne Murphy or teams figured out his weaknesses, possibly both.

I'm just curious to find out what you're all expecting out of Yunel Escobar in a bounce back season? 2009 Yunel? 2011 Yunel?

I expect him to bounce back, as long as he stops trying for home runs like his latin teammates he should get back to an OBP closer to .350 than .300.

[flatjacket1]

Ah yes, Aaron Hill. Oh how I took a beating on this board last year.
I'm just curious to find out what you're all expecting out of Yunel Escobar in a bounce back season? 2009 Yunel? 2011 Yunel?

I'm expecting a normal regression. Average last 3 years fWAR, then subtract around 0.5 fWAR/season until the end of his contract. Now, multiply that number by 5,000,000 which is the approximate going rate for $$/fWAR. Now, see how many times you can get 5,000,000 into his total remaining contract value. Subtract the second number from the first. There you go, that's a simple way of projecting FA's value.

Now to try it:
2010: 2.0
2011: 4.2
2012: 1.8
+________________
= 8.0 fWAR
= 8.0 fWAR/3
= 2.666 fWAR
= 2.666 fWAR*5,000,000
= 13.33M

Now, for his current contract. 20M/4 year = 5M/year if all options are exercised. Works out to our expected fWAR for a contract of that weight - He needs to get a total of 4 fWAR over 4 years to be "worth" that contract. Let's look at a standard aging curve for reasonable decline.
2012: 1.8 fWAR = 9,000,000
2013: 2.16 fWAR = 10,800,000
2014: 1.66 fWAR = 8,300,000
2015: 1.16 fWAR = 5,800,000

So, if every single of the last 3 seasons were true talent level (assuming Yunel wasn't in a slump) he deserves a contract of 33.9M/4 years. If he hit free agency without all of the questions about his ethics and morals, he would presumably "deserve" a contract like that. Of course, if you think Yunel was in a slump last year, he then obviously deserves more. For those of you keeping score at home, that is around 13.9M of surplus value.

With the two team options there is really no risk. No matter what happens we end up good. Right now we could trade Yunel for a Frasor type reliever IMO, but why should we? We can easily sign one of those if we want one. He isn't worth enough where I'd trade him. He was undervalued before the eye black incident. That didn't help, and on top of that he slumped.

I'd keep him around, he is a high upside player.

The selling low argument is all fine and well, but there's nothing to say he regains his value.

What if he get's off to a bad start, and is replaced by Hech after a month or two, and Hech does an at least comparable job to Esco so he remains the starter. Then Esco starts sulking and popping off about wanting out of town? His value would actually be even worse... You can't always just hold onto guys and assume there value is going to return. If there's a decent deal, with a decent return available this off-season, I'd probably be willing to pull the trigger.

Great point, but our return is literally so low I don't even care if we wait a year then decline his option. He is worthless at the moment in a trade. He could be kept and hope for him to return to form.

Problem is that the return at this moment would be pretty limited...we might get a second-tier prospect, but that's pretty much it. We're not risking much by keeping him and seeing how he performs in the first couple months of 2013.

I agree completely. Give him the reins and if he continues to only be worth 2 fWAR, we give Hech a chance.

[TwistedLogic]

Escobar is the definition of an average SS in almost every way. Not expecting much for him as he simply isn't worth that much. Even before the eye black thing, he's had the reputation of being a laid back bonehead with an attitude which is why Atlanta had no problem getting rid of him. The rest of the league knows this so there won't be much out there for him.

Atlanta had "no problem getting rid of him", which is why Atlanta made a stupid mistake, because the following season, he posted a 4.2 WAR with great offense and plus defense. You're saying the Jays should use the Braves' idiocy as a model?

The selling low argument is all fine and well, but there's nothing to say he regains his value.

Why? I mean.... why? Why is there nothing to say that he regains his value? A 30 year old shortstop with a career line of .282/.353/.390 with a .331 wOBA even after factoring in last seasons numbers, why is there nothing to say he regains his value? It's more logical to assume he fell off the face of the earth at 30 years old? A guy who has averaged 3.86 WAR per 162 games over his career even after his 2012 season, with + defense at shortstop, you want to sell low on? Do any of you realize that in your most optimistic dreams, Hechavarria will someday, possibly maybe hopefully tun into what Yunel Escobar already is? This is a guy who's got the potential to be a Top-5 shortstop in the game with a good offensive production, great defense and the most team-friendly contract you'll ever come across. The biggest problem here isn't Yunel Escobar's 2012 numbers, it's the fact that he's unfortunate enough to play for the same team that the great Toronto fans root for.

Jhonny Peralta followed a near identical path from 2011 to 2012 (going from 5.2 WAR to 2.6, similar to how Escobar went from 4.2 to 1.8) but I haven't seen a single Tigers fan call for Peralta's head. Before the season started, you had every Jays fan being an Escobar homer, penciling him into every possible lineup scenario, arguing that he's one of the top shortstops in the American League, and now after one down season (which, frankly, wasn't even that bad) everybody wants to ship him off for scraps.

I'm sorry, but I can't agree with any of that. There is not one shortstop on the market or in house that is a better option than Escobar right now. You guys want to replace an 18.7 career WAR shortstop with a 23 year old rookie who posted decent numbers over a 21 game span in September. Give me a break.

[flatjacket1]

(which, frankly, wasn't even that bad)

This is an excellent part of your post, the strongest part IMO. He didn't do that poorly. Let's look at the numbers.

2.0 fWAR per 162 games - According to Fangraphs, 2-3 fWAR ranks you as a "solid starter".

A career year defensively according to UZR/150 (5.0 UZR/150) - 5.0 runs gained compared to the average SS defensively.

54 wRC - Ranked "Below average" on Fangraphs.

I think for a down year, this is great. I'd take that level of production from Hech any day of the week. He is still seen by some scouts as a high end backup.