Please rate my mock-draft team

[416]

Your first three picks are legit. Those are keepers (sorry about love's injury btw)

Joe Johnson/Tony Parker/Kris Humphries are good to have, they are proven and you know what you'll get from them.

Kawhi and Greivis is a solid pick for a low rounder. good risk/reward trade off with them.

Jeremy Lin is a big gamble. Too many unknown factors that dictate his success. This pick is up to you, if you're risk adverse, I wouldn't advise. On the flip side he is getting the undisputed starting role @ houston.

Avery Bradley, Elton brand, Glen Davis, JJ Hickson, I have problems with. Its not that they are bad picks but their upside is limited. Glen Davis is a genuine x-factor though... he could help you win at times, but its the times he doesn't that bugs me....

Personally for later picks, I like to go with high risk high reward type of players. Rookies are always good for this and if you have even a small info advantage with rookies it goes a long way. As an example, on the raptors board, we are coming to the consensus that our rookie Jonas V is going to be our starting center; with very few C's backing him up. This means that he'll get good PT which will boost his stats. We know that he can get rebounds, run the floor, have decent FT %, etc so he is a prime example of high risk/high reward.

If you have any free agents that you are thinking of replacing with one of the people on your roster, post it here and I'll help you evaluate that decision if you'd like. cheers

[416]

Pluses:
1)Your first couple of selection look awesome, I am sold so highly on Cousins and Lawson for fantasy stats.
2)Your PG selection is good - barring anomalies, this position will not give you problems throughout the season
3)Your C selection is good - barring anomalies, this position will not give you problems throughout the season
4)Your team diversity is ok - 15/17 players are on different teams, fyi that I don't like having two Orlando players in your roster. But they are both under-valued players so I understand why they were picked up.

Minuses
1)Risk/Reward payoff is not managed well towards the latter portion of your list
- You can put your bench players into two categories: Insurance and Speculative. As you can tell your SF position is pretty weak after Lebron. Probably a good idea to have a consistent backup for insurance purposes. However for your stacked position, say PG, you dont need to have a "safe" pick as your fourth PG. That one should be reserved for a speculative player, say a rookie like Lillard if you can pick him up. Same argument for your C, you have Cousins/Monroe/Nene. Spencer Hawes will not provide you with good value here, you want someone who is more speculative (rookies are usually good) like Drummond/Jonas.
2) Your wings make me curl up into a fetal position and cry.
-At this point you're better off gambling... think, Aaron Affalo is your best sg. If you're serious about contending you have to upgrade here. Three sources of players: rookies/FA/trade. The SG position is so deep in this rookie class its a good place to start (jeremy Lamb?), FA -look for players whose averages may not be that good, but whose stats swing a lot. (Basically players that shoot a lot). Marshon, Nick Young, Carlos Delfino, Steve Novak, Jamal Crawford, Cap'n Jack are players to consider. As for trades, look for teams that have a) a positional need at PG or C b) have an injured player. As an example, players like Steph Curry is so undervalued now due to his injuries, getting him would be a high risk/high reward trade.

One last resort that you can do is pick 5 categories and give up on the other 4.

For now though, drop Spencer Hawes, pick up Enes Kanter (can't believe people haven't picked up on this guy), Drop Derrick Williams for Jae Crowder. Then look to package Aaron Affalo and Chris Kaman for a small upgrade at the wing like Joe Johnson.

For next time, it'll help greatly if you tell me your rationale for creating the team in the way you did and why you picked certain players. Cheers

[duppyy]

416 is a fantasy guru lol.

Rate my team posted in this thread if you have time

viewtopic.php?f=39&t=1145996&start=225

[416]

haha how can I not respond when you say such nice things...lol
I like doing valuations on anything so I enjoy this when I'm bored at work (shhh!!)

I'll look at yours as soon as possible and post the reply here I guess. I dont want to crowd that thread because someone has taken the time to set that up.

[duppyy]

lol thanks.

These are the top FAs that are left incase you need it.

[416]

Young Gunner,

I ran a couple of numbers, here are somethings that popped out:

Your FT% is terrible. because of Mcgee and Howard shooting below the 50% clip, they average your FT% down to 69.5%. Also you're going to average 2.05 t/o per player or 26-27 t/o per game, which raises some concerns.

On the plus side, your blocks and steal are off the charts. team average of .62/1.09 respectively.

Every other stat category is within a one standard deviation of the league average for a 12 team league. You can expect around 14 points 5.5 rebounds 3.5 assists as your team's player average.

From a qualitative perspective make sure to follow some common rules:
1) diversify teams
2) weigh positions evenly, dont stack up on one position
3) buy low, sell high -> players become mis-valued when they're injured or are rookies. exploit that advantage during trades and FA.

A good example of the third point was you picking up Rubio. You have a quality starting pg with a decent backup, makes a lot of sense to make the gamble on players like rubio

I have a problem with Aaron Brooks due to the same argument though, having him as an insurance on a deep roster really isnt worth it. Especially since your league has FAs left in the top 150+, there are plenty of FA gems to be scouted and found.

I'm buying high on Jae Crowder btw, he impressed me in the NCAA and its translating well in the league, it is so worth it to pick up someone of his caliber in exchange for JJ hickson/Brooks.

For Morrow, I understand when he got picked up by GS a couple years ago, that was a huge steal in the FT%, FG%, 3pt categories. However there are so many players that can give this stat line - Steve Novak being the epitome of it.

I would try moving Mr West btw if there is a right deal around, can't see too much upside with him anymore.

Overall a very fair team, a slight tweaks would go along way. From a mock perspective, your team player's average ranking is 69 while for your league average it is 78. From a drafting perspective, you were slightly in the win.

Cheers

[duppyy]

Wow thanks for the advice.

I was actually hoping Hickson and Brooks would be the surprise of the draft lol. I'll look at replacing brooks with crowder. I think Hickson will be putting up solid numbers. Maybe not consistently but I expect a few 20/10 games from him.

Sorry for highjacking your thread sickwiditt

[416]

No worries, hopefully it'll be of some substance for you.

On the flip side though, I can do a lot of number crunching and analysis, but at the end of the day this is your team. I think it is more fun to pick your own diamond in the rough and cheer for them during the season. It's not as if I have a crystal ball either, I would take anyone's advice regarding valuations with a grain of salt!

Good luck to you!

[416]

Sickwiditt,

By the way, the first question you posed regarding starter/not is a very important consideration to make. I agree with you, regardless of how amazing someone's per36 stats are, if they're aren't getting enough minutes then it isn't worth it.

For the players in question though, Jae is a rookie backing up fossils in Dallas in while Kanter is backing up one player. I expect these guys to get enough burn at some time during the season which makes it worthwhile to keep them as value picks on your bench. emphasis on the bench part.

Your league is set up in a way that it incentivizes you to take on high risk/reward players, since you have 7 bench spots. This means that you can stockpile on players based on probable what-if scenarios.

Example: What if Al Jefferson gets injured this season? Enes Kanter will then play at least 25+ min, which at that point he will demolish Hawes in any category (except FT%, which is one of the bonuses that I like about Spencer).
Same argument for Jae, if you give this guy minutes he will produce. Look at the last game against the Thunder, his stat line was: 21 points,1 three-pointer, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 0 turnovers, with a little bit over 50% shooting percentage. That is monstrous and worth having on your roster; especially once he develops further along the season and (if) injuries from other Dallas players arises.

On the flip side, what arguments can be made for Spencer Hawes and Derrick Williams? Since they are starters already, their ceiling is almost reached. Yes you get consistency, but the upside is limited with that trade-off. Do you want to spend your bench roster spots on low-tier, consistent players, or swing for home-runs? That is the crux of this analysis.

Let me illustrate this with an analogy. Lets say that you travel on the highway everyday, and it makes sense for you to drive a fuel efficient compact car on average. If you got to choose the four cars that make up your garage which would you choose based on this scenario:

4 fuel efficient compact cars
or
2 fuel efficient compact cars, 1 SUV, and 1 luxury Sports Car

Most will pick the latter, but to some that won't make sense. Why get an SUV when you're going to drive on the highway? That is because WHAT-IF you needed a car that can handle a lot of cargo one day, having an SUV will provide value then. Or what if you wanted to take out a client and impress them one odd day, then the luxury sports car provides tremendous value. However, on average though, the SUV and the luxury car will not provide good value like a compact car, but thats why you have two of them, just in case one breaks down. But having 4 is overkill.

I know that was a long analogy but the implications are the same: You have to choose assets that provide you with the most value. Linking it back to Spencer Hawes scenario, isn't having Cousins, Monroe, and Nene good enough to not use Hawes ever? The chance of all three of those guys going down at the same time is highly improbable. So shouldn't you fill that spot with someone that has a chance to be a stats monster, instead of it being a backup of a backup?

As for your categories, your starting lineup is good enough that you don't need to play that game. Due to the combination of two-way PG and C's on your roster, naturally your Points, Asst, Rebound, Steal categories are covered. (Your centers are good at blocking btw, not many are going to start Biyombo, Stiemsma, seraphin, joel anthony, birdman, etc .. so despite the fact that Cousins/Monroe average only top 30 in blocks, half of those people on the list you wont be up against) However the problem with two-way players for fantasy leagues (since their usage rate/min is higher) is that they'll inevitably rack up more T/Os. If that category is getting out of whack, then it makes sense to switch for low t/o type players (*cough Jae Crowder cough).

Hope this answers your questions, and you never have to take my advice. If you apply the same rationale for different players that you're considering, and it checks out, I don't see why you wouldn't select them instead of what I picked. They're more guidelines anyways, good luck you

[416]

This is a no-brainer for me. Pull the trigger and run!

The only reason your friend is giving you that package is because of his expectations for Derrick Williams. I don't see his growth potential being that high since klove/pek will steal his stats, historical stats aren't spectacular, and his pre-season game isn't showing anything good either. Kawhi vs Derrick Williams, I'd take kawhi 19/20 times.

Humphries points will drop for sure, however the good thing about that is his efficiency will go up. As a toronto raptors fan, and being fortunate to have Mr. Humphries on our team before, I noticed the amount of ill-advised shots that he took. With more shooting options on the brooklyn team, hump will settle for the easier baskets, dropping his total points but improving efficiency. He positions himself very well when the shot is off so fundamentally, his rebound numbers wont be hit hard, if any at all. Anyways, I don't see too much of a disparity between Glen and Hump.

Clearly the other guy is mis-valuing your assets. From a sale's perspective, I'd counter-offer by trading your 14th round pick with his 13th round so:

Out:
Glen Davis
Derrick Williams
14th Round Pick

In:
Kawhi Leonard
Kris Humphries
13th Round Pick

love it.