Should the Jays go after Shohei Otani?

CrymeTime · Post #1 » by **CrymeTime** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:00 pm

Any chance the Jays go after him?

Go over the International Cap, pay the heavy tax, and offer him a spot in the rotation, even though he's just out of high school.

What is the tax for the International Cap?

torontoaces04 · Post #2 » by **torontoaces04** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:36 pm

Two words: Yu Darvish.

......so, no.

baulderdash77 · Post #3 » by **baulderdash77** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:18 pm

The penalties for going over are draconian. There's no way we can sign him without completely crippling our ability to get anyone next year at all. 100% tax penalty plus not being able to spend >250k next year.

Unfortunately we have to pass

distracted · Post #4 » by **distracted** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:07 pm

baulderdash77 wrote:The penalties for going over are draconian. There's no way we can sign him without completely crippling our ability to get anyone next year at all. 100% tax penalty plus not being able to spend >250k next year.

Unfortunately we have to pass

Interesting penalties. So if you really think that latin talent is undervalued (especially due to the cap) should you go balls out every other year? Get 6 of the top 10 prospects one year, pay the tax, and then don't sign anyone the following year.

Due to the cap, the expected bonuses have to be going down so it should be cheaper to sign the top guys. If you double the cap you're paying a 50% tax overall. It would be more expensive than before, but the value still may be ++.

number15 · Post #5 » by **number15** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:50 pm

someone explain the international cap to me.... cause the jays are already at the limit? i mean they havent signed anyone so far. :-?

Ado05 · Post #6 » by **Ado05** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:10 pm

I want the Jays to get this guy so bad. AA hasnt took any chances, and so far, they all blew up in his face. We couldve had Darvish, we couldve had Cespedes. That would give us a front of the rotation pitcher and our starting LF.

baulderdash77 · Post #7 » by **baulderdash77** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:04 pm

So the international cap is $2.9 million for this year, plus I believe (but I didn't see it in the Fangraphs article) 6 individual slots of $50k each.

The penalties are this:
<5% over - 75% tax on overage
5-10% over - 75% tax on overage & can't sign anyone >500k the next season
10-15% over - 100% tax on overage & can't sign anyone >500k the next season
>15% over - 100% tax on overage & can't sign anyone >250k the next season

baulderdash77 · Post #8 » by **baulderdash77** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:14 pm

The Jays had maxed out their $2.9 million limit but they voided Luis Castro's contract (for $900k). Castro was the #9 ranked international prospect. In fact they were 3% over the limit after signing Castro.

Subsequently they signed 2 extra prospects. So they're 470k under the limit right now and could spend up to $615k to get to the 5% over without triggering the future limiting penalty limits.

Regarless this is who they signed:
SS/CF/2B Franklin Barreto - $1.45 million (The #1 ranked international prospect this year)
SS Richard Urena - $725k (#13 ranked international prospect)
OF Andres DeAza - $150k
SS Ronniel Demorizi - $105k

mikero · Post #9 » by **mikero** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:16 pm

The Jays should definitely be in on it. If they have to sacrifice next years IFA budget, then so be it. From the 2012 MLB draft, it's pretty clear AA is willing to sacrifice quantity for quality.

baulderdash77 · Post #10 » by **baulderdash77** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:48 pm

I watched the 12 minute video of this kids start that's out there. His fastball sits from 150 kph to 156 kph (93-96) and he did dial it up to 157, 159 and 160 at the end of his start in the 7th inning which is 99 mph. He throws all kinds of breaking stuff, but all the Japanese pitchers do. He has some serious juice especially considering this very thin frame and age.

Obviously he's young and he's throwing all over the place (like beaning the batter, throwing it over the umpire's head, behind the batter, in the dirt about 3 feet off the plate) but that's some arm he has. Wild Thing indeed.

I wonder if he's not better off waiting until the next international signing period on July 2nd since there's not many teams out there that have the full $2.9 million to spare. Most have spent between 1 and 2 million already.

Skin Blues · Post #11 » by **Skin Blues** » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:04 pm

If he waits any longer then he'll be drafted by a Japanese team, and if he's drafted by a Japanese team then he's no longer a FA since they'll have his rights. This is as per the agreement between MLB/NPB, from what I understand.

Post #12 » by **Schad** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:25 am

The question isn't whether he's worth the tax (because the price for kiddies is always absurdly cheap, when scaled), it's whether he's a better asset than the two or three top Latin American prospects we'd get the next year. With 2013 potentially being the last year prior to an IFA draft, the answer for me is no...we're likely going to see some major age shenanigans next year by prospects trying to get pro deals before the draft hits, so it's not the year to shut one's self out from the market. Otani has a massive arm, but so does Stetson Allie (note: I really wanted us to draft Allie, for those who don't remember. Oops.)

Kaizen · Post #13 » by **Kaizen** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:35 am

baulderdash77 wrote:I watched the 12 minute video of this kids start that's out there. His fastball sits from 150 kph to 156 kph (93-96) and he did dial it up to 157, 159 and 160 at the end of his start in the 7th inning which is 99 mph. He throws all kinds of breaking stuff, but all the Japanese pitchers do. He has some serious juice especially considering this very thin frame and age.

Obviously he's young and he's throwing all over the place (like beaning the batter, throwing it over the umpire's head, behind the batter, in the dirt about 3 feet off the plate) but that's some arm he has. Wild Thing indeed.

I wonder if he's not better off waiting until the next international signing period on July 2nd since there's not many teams out there that have the full $2.9 million to spare. Most have spent between 1 and 2 million already.

I am not sure how people could read this and be dying to sign this guy. I do not want to go anywhere near him.

baulderdash77 · Post #14 » by **baulderdash77** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:52 am

He has a classic "Moneyball" toolset. Make no mistake this kid has a massive fastball and good/very good breaking stuff. He has the big 6'4 frame so he's projectable, but he has no control at all.

The good thing is that he's only 18 and control is the last thing you learn. You can't teach 99 MPH fastballs though.

He projects to have Ace stuff, but like all 18 year holds there's a 75% bust potential.

number15 · Post #15 » by **number15** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:14 pm

If he is drafted by the Japanese league...... he can still demand his rights being sold to the MLB like Darvish rite?
I mean it was his dream to play in the MLB and he makes no secret he wants to skip Japan....... yet he is sloted to be drafted in the first round of the Japan draft

If Jays win his rights through a bidding war like for Darvish last season, would that count towards international cap?

-MetA4- · Post #16 » by **-MetA4-** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:13 pm

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler

More scouts saying the arm they really want is Shintaro Fujinami. More public hype for Shohei Otani because he wants to come to the US now.

Homer Jay · Post #17 » by **Homer Jay** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:59 pm

-MetA4- wrote:
Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler

More scouts saying the arm they really want is Shintaro Fujinami. More public hype for Shohei Otani because he wants to come to the US now.

Thanks Meta.

Is it true that if he gets drafted to the Japanese league, that since a MLB team will have to submit to the bid process, that he doesn't count towards the International Cap?

He projects out well, but we need to remember that he is still just a prospect, and all of the possible disappointments are there as well. Darvish was fairly average as a starter, certainly not worth what the Rangers paid for him, but he at least was able to come over and contribute right away. You could be paying 40-50 million up front for Otani, then a full major league salary, just to have him develop in the minors for four years. I know the Jays were willing to pay Hech a full MLB salary to develop, but then just to see him possibly only projecting out as barely an everyday player offensively, they may wonder if it is worth it in the end.

Kaizen · Post #18 » by **Kaizen** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:39 pm

He does NOT have to be bid on just because he was drafted. He has not signed a contract and that is all that matters. Badler said that in an earlier tweet. He is a international free agent just like anybody else.

Kurtz · Post #19 » by **Kurtz** » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:05 pm

Homer Jay wrote: Darvish was fairly average as a starter, certainly not worth what the Rangers paid for him, but he at least was able to come over and contribute right away.

Darvish was a 5.1 WAR guy in his rookie year. Rangers got a bargain.

Modern_epic · Post #20 » by **Modern_epic** » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:07 am

The Rangers likely got a discount, but it would be a stretch to call it any kind of huge bargain.

They are paying 112 million over those 6 years, and half of that was upfront, so it is probably more like 120 million in real dollars. That is paying him like around a 3.5 WAR player over those years. Fangraphs had him at 5.1 WAR this year, but B-R had him at 4. With a normal ageing curve you can put him around those same numbers for the next 4 years and then expect a to decline about .5 WAR a year over the next two years. Provided he avoids injury it is a decent discount, but that is a big if for pitchers.