2012-2013 Season & Win Predictions

[basghetti80]

With training camp opening on Monday I thought now would be a good time to start a Bulls predictions thread for the season.

Bulls play basicallly .500 ball while Rose is out
Bulls suffer one major injury while Rose is out..My best guess is Hamilton
Upon that loss Belinelli steps up and accept starting SG role and does fairly well
Due to Rip injury they get a nice year out of Robinson who plays a good bit alongside Hinrich. Butler also gives them some SG minutes.
Rose returns on February 21st against Heat in Chicago on TNT
Bulls go into that game with a 27 win and 26 loss record
That day is trade deadline..Bulls make no moves
With Rose back Belinelli stays in starting lineup and Robinson and Hinrich back them up
They then finish the year 20-9 to get an overall record of 47 wins and 35 losses
Bulls get 4th seed and play Philly is a rematch in round 1 of playoffs
Bulls get revenge and take Philly out in 6 and then lose in 5 to Miami in round 2

Season ending stats:

Rose 25 PPG
Boozer 18 PPG(has a nice bounceback year)
Deng 15 PPG(steady as always)
Belinelli 12 PPG(surprise of year really does well taking over for Rip)
Noah 12 PPG(makes all star game)
Hinrich 9 PPG(very steady play keeping team afloat without Rose)
Gibson 9 PPG(gets new deal prior to season but does not take starting role from Boozer sticks as 3rd big)
Robinson 7 PPG(2nd biggest surprise, does well as 3rd guard when Rip goes down)
Butler 5 PPG(does ok in bigger role but does not play but Deng remains as big minute player at SF)

Hamilton-injured big disappointment
Teague-developmental year plays a lot of DLeague
Mohammed and Fesenko-both rarely see the floor Bulls look for upgrade at backup center at trade deadline but cant find one

[basghetti80]

The Nate Robinson thing is interesting to me. I think he could do well getting a consistent 12-15 minutes a game as a scoring guard off bench. But my gut tells me that the Bulls might bring someone into camp to try to push him and see how he acts. That person might be Jannero Pargo. If Robinson behaves himself and looks good in preseason then he makes the team and sticks around for awhile. If he acts up though and shows any red flags I would not be stunned to see him cut and see Pargo make the team. I think they might have told Pargo that he is a security blanket for them in case Robinson does something wrong.

[daschysta]

With training camp opening on Monday I thought now would be a good time to start a Bulls predictions thread for the season.

Bulls play basicallly .500 ball while Rose is out
Bulls suffer one major injury while Rose is out..My best guess is Hamilton
Upon that loss Belinelli steps up and accept starting SG role and does fairly well
Due to Rip injury they get a nice year out of Robinson who plays a good bit alongside Hinrich. Butler also gives them some SG minutes.
Rose returns on February 21st against Heat in Chicago on TNT
Bulls go into that game with a 27 win and 26 loss record
That day is trade deadline..Bulls make no moves
With Rose back Belinelli stays in starting lineup and Robinson and Hinrich back them up
They then finish the year 20-9 to get an overall record of 47 wins and 35 losses
Bulls get 4th seed and play Philly is a rematch in round 1 of playoffs
Bulls get revenge and take Philly out in 6 and then lose in 5 to Miami in round 2

Season ending stats:

Rose 25 PPG
Boozer 18 PPG(has a nice bounceback year)
Deng 15 PPG(steady as always)
Belinelli 12 PPG(surprise of year really does well taking over for Rip)
Noah 12 PPG(makes all star game)
Hinrich 9 PPG(very steady play keeping team afloat without Rose)
Gibson 9 PPG(gets new deal prior to season but does not take starting role from Boozer sticks as 3rd big)
Robinson 7 PPG(2nd biggest surprise, does well as 3rd guard when Rip goes down)
Butler 5 PPG(does ok in bigger role but does not play but Deng remains as big minute player at SF)

Hamilton-injured big disappointment
Teague-developmental year plays a lot of DLeague
Mohammed and Fesenko-both rarely see the floor Bulls look for upgrade at backup center at trade deadline but cant find one

Bulls aren't the fourth seed wtih just 47 wins, come on, the Pacers won 42 in a 66 game season, and are bringing guys back while George and Hibbert are set to improve. They are 50+

[stepbackjftw]

-kirk hinrich is done, finished
-same with deng, as evident with his performance in the Olympics

after these guys got their huge contracts, their level of play has declined!

[johnnyvann840]

My prediction 49-33. Rose comes back in mid Feb and the team struggles until mid March and they wind up with the 5th or 6th seed.

I thought this Hollinger piece was interesting. He has the team

Prediction: 43-39, 2nd in Central Division, 8th in Eastern Conference

In his lengthy preview he has some interesting tidbits... believe it or not this is just a small part of the article...

Turns out that the biggest threat to Chicago's title hopes wasn't the Miami Heat, but rather two other little-discussed threats: Derrick Rose's knee ligaments and Jerry Reinsdorf's wallet.....

----------------

.....But it might be longer given Reinsdorf's stance toward the luxury tax. The Bulls have never paid it and apparently have no intention to; as a result, they refused to match an offer sheet to Omer Asik, and either cut or gave away three other important members of last season's hugely productive second unit.........

--------------

..........scary part is that the Bulls are still hurtling toward their financial cliff. Restricted free agent Taj Gibson is due for a major payday next summer, one that may result in the Bulls using the amnesty provision on Carlos Boozer to make ends meet. The non-guaranteed deal of Richard Hamilton also may fall under the ax, if he hasn't been traded by then.

----------------

......the Bulls are still over the tax by about $3 million, although they could easily trade their way under during the season. Even if they do, that might not be such a bad idea if they plan on going over the threshold in future seasons

---------------

..... Bulls aren't not be in bad shape in other respects. Their other best players, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Gibson, all are 27 or younger, and there may be more help on the way once Euro-stash pick Nikola Mirotic and 2012 first-rounder Marquis Teague are ready.....

......In the short term, the good news for Chicago is there is still enough talent on hand to field a very competitive team. The Bulls went 18-9 without Rose last season, and their two most identifiable characteristics -- manic defense and prolific rebounding -- had little to do with their floor general. Nonetheless, the playoffs showed how much harder it is for Chicago to sustain a cohesive offensive attack without him. It will be even harder after the Bulls made several secondary cuts.

-------------

.......Bulls just suffocated opponents with their persistent help, active bigs and refusal to concede a 3-point shot. The latter is an underrated factor in their excellence: Only 17.3 percent of Chicago's shots against were 3-point tries, by far the lowest rate in the league (see chart), and it's why the Bulls led the league in opponent TS percentage........

........Of course, the Bulls also led the league in opponent 2-point percentage, so you were screwed either way, and they cleaned up the misses by boarding 74.3 precent of missed shots. Perhaps the most amazing part is that, as hard as they played, Chicago had the third-lowest foul rate in the league,

----------

...... Noah, Gibson and Asik were three of the best frontcourt defenders in basketball, while Deng is an ace wing defender

-----------

on offseason moves.......

Let Omer Asik go, signed Nazr Mohammed for one year, minimum: The Bulls couldn't afford to match Houston's offer sheet to Asik, since it contained a "poison pill" in the form of a third year at $14.9 million -- right when the Bulls' cap situation looked to be at its worst anyway. The luxury tax bill was likely to add $15 million on top of Asik's salary, making it a $30 million season.

Nonetheless, not matching will leave a dent. While Asik couldn't score, he was one of the best defensive centers in basketball. Additionally, Chicago made a pretty uninspired choice as a replacement in the veteran Mohammed, who fell out of the Thunder's rotation last season and may not have much left in the tank at 35.

.....Cut Ronnie Brewer, signed Marco Belinelli for one year, minimum: Another money-saving move, and a hurtful one. Chicago cut the nonguaranteed Brewer, who was one of the keys to the second unit's defensive power, and replaced him with the barely replacement-level Belinelli. While he started the past two years in New Orleans, he wasn't particularly good, and the Bulls are going to take a step back at this position.

Traded Kyle Korver to Atlanta for cash, signed Vladimir Radmanovic for one year, minimum: Seeing a pattern yet?

However, there was at least a sneaky upside to the Korver deal in the form of a $5 million trade exception that the Bulls have until next July to use......

.....As for Radmanovic, he was a fine pickup for the price given his ability to play both forward spots and rain 3s, but again, this was a downgrade from Korver.

.....Let John Lucas go, signed Nate Robinson for one year, minimum: This is the one move I'd argue made the Bulls better. Robinson played very well in Golden State last season, and his offensive explosiveness will be very important for the second unit.

.....Signed Kirk Hinrich for two years, $8 million: The one genuine expenditure of the Bulls' offseason was actually a fairly risky one, and one I'd argue was made more with their hearts than their heads.

Outlook

Defensively, Chicago will take a slight step back because the bench won't be as good at this end. Belinelli, Robinson, Radmanovic and Mohammed all are ordinary-to-bad defenders, and two of the departed players, Asik and Brewer, were very, very good. No matter how much you believe in Thibodeau's mojo, it's unrealistic to think this won't leave a dent. It's possible second-year pro Jimmy Butler helps here, and he may play ahead of one of the two Euros.

Offensively, the Bulls' bench reshuffle won't hurt them nearly as much -- Robinson should help quite a bit and Asik, for all his defensive merits, was a terrible offensive player.

Instead, it's the little matter of replacing Rose with Hinrich, who flopped as a point guard in Atlanta and now must guide an offense without a ton of scoring help. Chicago will still get some cheap points on second shots, but it seems a long shot they'll finish in the top five on offense again.

The good news is that Thibodeau's robust D will keep them in games,

[Rerisen]

I was going restart this thread closer to the season, but this will do.

For fun I went back and looked at predictions for the last 4 years (Rose era). See if you can find your predictions below. I was pleasantly surprised to see missing the last 4 years wins by just: 1, 2, 12, 1. Of course just about everyone blew 2010, with Rose's bust out and Thibs success beyond expectation. For the most part we have a pretty good handle on what our teams will be though if you look at averages.

2009
2010
2011
2012

This year is much harder to forecast since so much will rest on when Rose comes back - and how well and quickly he can get back up to level. I think the safest is to expect AS break or a bit later. In the meantime I do not expect the team to fair quite as well as last year without Derrick. I also see Rose's return and integration taking a while to iron out, so the team to also win a bit less than the last two years with Rose. So without getting into a lot more micro level stuff that is very hard to call right now, and secondary to Rose's situation, that ends up with a prediction of 46 wins, which is rather in line with a lot of expectations I have seen elsewhere too.

If Thibs gets 50 or above out of this group, I would be exceedingly impressed and have to call him the best coach in the league hands down, barring another coach doing something extraordinary.

[dafunky1]

All I want is the Bulls get the 7th seed,have Rose at 85-90% and let the Bulls take their chances from there.I like the Bulls chances to get to the ECF with the 7th seed.

[Seinfeld]

50 wins.

[cool007]

Without Rose, I see these teams better than Bulls: Miami and Boston.

After that we COULD be in the same boat as Knicks, Pacers, Nets, etc.

I will guess that Bulls will be around 6th in the East until Rose comes back (hoping early January). When Rose comes back, we will make a push to get to 3rd/4th seed.

If Rose is back in January, I see us as a 3rd seed with 48-52 wins. If Rose is back later - say in March, then Bulls will be the 6th seed - but it could be a good thing if Rose is back to close to normal hisself.

[GoBlue72391]

-kirk hinrich is done, finished
-same with deng, as evident with his performance in the Olympics

after these guys got their huge contracts, their level of play has declined!

[tikay0036]

50+. Not because we're so talented. But Thibs is a master at getting the TEAM to work like a well oiled machine. I'm confident he'll figure out the sweet spot with this team within a month or so, and we'll start racking up the wins.

Plus this league is so watered down. All it takes is a few grind out wins against the very good/elite teams, and just crush the cans.

[Ricky ROY Rubio]

47-35
btw, did anyone see james get a techincal for flopping/?

[kodo]

44 wins.

Fully healthy we could win more, but I'll assume we'll see some injuries to starters like Booz or Noah along the way to 82 games. Booz going injury-free for a season isn't going to last. Rip hasn't played 70+ games since '08. Deng may re-aggravate his wrist.

[kulaz3000]

I honestly think we will still be very good, specifically in the regular season. If Rose were to be absent the entire season, I still think we will 44-48 games and get a seed between 6-8, possibly even 5th seed depending how the rest of the Eastern conference fairs this season.

As much as Rose is important to the team, our core players are still returning and the best players after Rose, Deng and Noah are right at the prime of their careers and could use the absences of Rose to their advantages and have their respective career seasons. Boozer isn't old either, and he could be in for a big season, hopefully. I think the key is the bench and Rip's health, can the bench form some chemistry together and can Rip stay healthy, two big ifs.

We are a simply going to outplay most teams in the regular season, it's the Thib's way, and in many nights we will outplay teams who have more talent and other teams who decide to take a night off. We are too scrappy, too stubborn, and still have enough talent to be a very good regular season team. I continue to emphasis regular season, because once the playoffs begin, you need a go-to-player, and all teams during playoffs play hard, it's a different game, a different season.

I'm actually really looking forward to the season, even without Derrick. He is our best player, of course, but the Bulls are my first love, so I can't wait for Bulls basketball to begin. Go Bulls!

[Yusio]

After a long time reading on this board this will be my first post. I live in Australia so I may not receive the exposure to the NBA to what someone living in the USA may get. I still subscribe to league pass and watch every game in full.

To me the second biggest asset the Bulls have(number one being Rose) is Thibs defensive system. To me this and his hard nose hard working system really milks the best out of every player. I think that most people are grossly underestimating what this this team is truly capable of. Especially on the defensive end Thibs seems to be able to get the best out of his players.

If you remember beck to 2010 the Bulls completel exceeded expectations. But this did not come immediately at the start of the year. As the season went on the tam got better and better. As the players learnt Thibs system the win percentage increased. With this new crop of bench players I do not think things will be any different. That is why i am nit worried about the likes of Bellinelli. To watch Korver of all people grow defensively so much over the years, I feel that anyone under Thibs can at least become an adequate defender.

In my honest opinion I feel that the Bulls without Rose could win 48 games+. it all come down to Thibs who without doubt for the regulator season is the best coach in the NBA(the post season is a different matter).

I also feel that if Rose comes back 90% healthy the bulls can make a real run at the titles. Firstly the rest of the team will take a lot more responsibility and play to their own strengths. Also I think Rose will gave a lot less pressure on his shoulders which in my opinion is probably the one thing that can affect his game.

I just think people are really underestimating the Bulls and nit looking at the bug picture.

[bledredwine]

(eagerly awaiting LCMJ's reply)

[BuffaloBull]

I actually expect an outperform this year, and for the team to come in right around 50 wins, +/- 6 depending on whether they get above average injuries or not. This team is a lot shallower than previous iterations, especially since Derrick will be out for most of the season. But I think Thibs will put players in a position to succeed, and have them believing they could, and should win. Which is big.

An interesting barometer guy, to me, is going to be Nazr. He didn't do much in OKC last year, but he's performed really well for us in preseason so far. I think that at least part of that is our system is so much better: the Thunder, for the most part, just give Westbrook, Durant, and Harden the ball and let them do what they want, and it works, for the most part, but I really thought Miami outclassed them in the playoffs. A whole team system, like Thibs has installed, can get more out of guys if they are smart and understand their role.

[GoBlue72391]

I see 43-49 wins and finishing anywhere from 4th-6th in the East. It all depends on how healthy we stay throughout the course of the season. If we avoid any major and/or lingering injuries, I can see us playing above .500 until Derrick's return. We may struggle to score at times, but as long as we play defense and rebound like we have under Thibs we'll have the opportunity to win on any given night.

When Derrick does return we'll have to see how long it takes for him to adjust and how long it takes the team to adjust to him. Hopefully he'll get his legs under him by the playoffs and the team will have meshed by the playoffs. One silver lining in Derrick's injury is that he has the potential to be healthy and have fresh legs heading into the playoffs, depending on when he returns. The past two years he's seemed a little run down by the time the playoffs rolled around. If he's healthy, fresh, and up to speed on his injury and the NBA game by the playoffs, I think that works in our favor.

I think we can still win the championship this season. It will take a lot of luck and all the cards going in our favor, but I really think a fresh, healthy Rose in the playoffs can be a blessing in disguise. At the very least, I don't agree with those who think this will be a "wasted" or "lost" season for the Bulls.

Now for my actual predictions: 46 wins, 5th in the Eastern Conference, lose in the ECF.

Rose: 21 pts, 3 rbds, 7 assts, 43% (plays 28 games, rounds into form by the playoffs)

Hamilton: 13 pts, 2 rbds, 3 assts, 45% (plays 70 games)

Deng: 18 pts, 7 rbds, 3 assts, 47% (all-star, 1st-team all defense)

Boozer: 17 pts, 9 rbds, 1 stls, 51%

Noah: 11 pts, 11 rbds, 2 blks, 53% (2nd-team all defense)

Gibson: 9 pts, 7 rbds, 1.5 blks, 49%

Hinrich: 9 pts, 3 rbds, 7 assts, 44%

Mohammed: 6 pts, 5 rbds, 1 blk, 51%

Bellinelli: 8 pts, 2 rbds, 2 assts, 41%

Butler: 5 pts, 3 rbds, 1 stls, 45%

Robinson: 10 pts, 2 rbds, 4 assts, 43%

Radmanovic: 6 pts, 3 rbds 45% (not in the rotation)

Teague: 3 pts, 1 rbds, 1 assts, 37% (barely plays at all)

[Gray Poster]

-kirk hinrich is done, finished
-same with deng, as evident with his performance in the Olympics

after these guys got their huge contracts, their level of play has declined!

Is this a serious comment!

Deng had a 26pt/9rb/7asst game against Spain.

[JordansBulls]

If Boozer can average close to 20 and 10 this season we can be a top 3 team without Rose.