Official Countdown Grunfeld Era-2nd SuperStar?

[closg00]

Sheridan Hoops staff predictions for GM of the year, it's shocking the Ernie didn't get a single vote out.
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/10/29 ... -the-year/

[LyricalRico]

Sheridan Hoops staff predictions for GM of the year, it's shocking the Ernie didn't get a single vote out.

Yeah, I was also upset when he wasn't an option on the recent RealGM polls either.

[closg00]

Sheridan Hoops staff predictions for GM of the year, it's shocking the Ernie didn't get a single vote out.

Yeah, I was also upset when he wasn't an option on the recent RealGM polls either.

Fear-not Rico, one day Ernie will get what he deserves

[payitforward]

Sheridan Hoops staff predictions for GM of the year, it's shocking the Ernie didn't get a single vote out.

Yeah, I was also upset when he wasn't an option on the recent RealGM polls either.

Fear-not Rico, one day Ernie will get what he deserves

Sometimes I wonder. Sometimes I have a bad dream that Ernie is appointed GM for life.

[closg00]

Watching Crowder on the Mavs will surely give me an ulcer this year.

[miller31time]

Watching Crowder on the Mavs will surely give me an ulcer this year.

It really is infuriating. So predictably infuriating.

[TheBigThree]

It's absolutely ridiculous how long EG has skated by on an injury technicality. It's almost like he trades for "good" but oft injured players intentionally...

I think I just had an epiphany .

[miller31time]

It's absolutely ridiculous how long EG has skated by on an injury technicality. It's almost like he trades for "good" but oft injured players intentionally...

I think I just had an epiphany .

That's actually not too farfetched. I mean, Ernie is just like any employee with a sweet gig - he wants to keep his job under any means necessary.

He's clearly not too good at his job and he probably knows this, so why not find a way to keep your job without having to, you know, win.

[nate33]

I've been thinking how good this team would be if EG had only made a few obvious decisions in the post Pollin era.

2010: EG made the right moves:
* Draft Wall: Obvious move. I supported it at the time. So did the rest of RealGM
* Hinrich/Seraphin acquisition: Good trade. I supported it at the time. So did the board.
* Draft Booker: Good move. I supported it at the time. The board opinion was ambivalent.
* Arenas for Lewis: Good trade. I supported it at the time. The board opinion was mixed.
* Dump Hinrich for cap room, Crawford and a pick: Good trade. I supported it at the time. So did the board.

2011: EG blows it big time:
* Draft Vesely: I supported Kawhi Leonard at the time. I don't know if Leonard was really the Real GM consensus pick, but he was liked more than Vesely.
* Draft Singleton: I supported Kenneth Faried at this spot, so did nearly everyone else on the board.
* Trade McGee for Nene. Good move. I supported it at the time. So did most of the board.
* Trade Young for 2nd rounder. I would have pushed for Eric Bledsoe, even if we had to include a 2nd round pick.

2012: EG still screwing up
* Okariza acquisition: An incomprehensibly stupid move. Most on this board disliked it.
* Draft Beal. If the Harden trade was on the table, I would have pulled the trigger.
* Draft Satoransky. Everyone here loved Crowder
* Sign Martell Webster. A good move, perhaps better than board consensus. EG deserves credit here.

If EG would have just avoided the moves that we all hated, and traded for Harden, we could have the following roster right now:

PG Wall/Bledsoe
SG Harden/Webster/Crawford
SF Leonard/Crowder
PF Faried/Booker
C Nene/Seraphin/Barron


This isn't fantasy 20/20 hindsight here. These are all simple moves that made more sense at the time that what EG actually did. The only element of fantasy is that if we had drafted Faried and Leonard in 2011, we may have been a bit too good to land the #2 pick and instead ended up with #5 or so, which might not have been enough for Harden. (It's debatable though. I don't know if Leonard or Faried would have helped much early in the year when we were still invested in McGee, Blatche and Young.)

[Nivek]

Good post nate.

[montestewart]

Good, balanced summary nate33. I liked Faried at the second pick, but it seemed Singleton slipped, and fell to that position. At the time (with my little knowledge of college players) he seemed like a good pick. I supported the acquisition of Nene, and was pleased with the partial early returns. My only hesitation was concern about his durability, and it may turn out that those who were much more concerned with this (Dat2U, Nivek, CCJ, others) were that much more prescient.

[fishercob]

Couple things:

1) Nene likely wouldn't have been available via trade if we had drafted Faried. Denver moved Nene in no small part because they had Faried.

2) With Faried and Leonard, it's very unlikely that we could have drafted Beal.

[LyricalRico]

Couple things:

1) Nene likely wouldn't have been available via trade if we had drafted Faried. Denver moved Nene in no small part because they had Faried.

2) With Faried and Leonard, it's very unlikely that we could have drafted Beal.

Good points. Here's what I would add:

3) You're also assuming that LAC would have been willing to give up Bledsoe to rent Nick Young for a couple months plus a 2nd, and that very well many not have been the case. Saying "oh but we could have traded for" any player is dicey because it assumes that the other team actually wanted the guy we were trying to give up.

4) I'm also not going to fault any GM for "missing" on 2nd round guys. Every year you can point to guys in the second round (or even non-drafted) that any number of teams passed on. Should all of those GMs be fired, too?

5) The Okafor/Ariza deal I think will ultimately be judged by what the team looks like once everyone is healthy. I can understand the arguments that many here made against it, but I'm willing to see it play out. And if the team never gets healthy this year, then I'll give it a "fail" by default. But I'm not going to do that after 1 game.

All that being said, I think it's pretty clear that Ernie is "all in" with this group of players. They've got to take a noticeable step forward this year, otherwise even I won't be able to argue against making a change at GM. But again, I'm willing to see it play out over the course of the season.

Go Wiz!

[queridiculo]

Conversely it begs the question if McGee wouldn't have flourished on a team that featured Farried, Leonard and Wall, three hard working no nonsense type players.

Farried's rebounding and defense may well have covered up some of McGee's deficiencies though.

Assuming McGee wouldn't have panned out, we still would have had great options in free agency and in the draft. Adding Asik on top of drafting Zeller, while still signing Webster to round out the roster probably would have had has much farther ahead and prepared for the future than what we have now.

Wall
Webster
Leonard
Farried
Asik

That's a pretty tough starting lineup.

Either way, the 2011 draft made it abundantly clear the Grunfeld needed to go.

You don't even have to be a hardcore basketball guy to see that, how Leonsis still doesn't remains a mystery to me.

[Nivek]

I'd rather have Leonard and Faried than Nene and Singleton. Just saying.

[doclinkin]

5) The Okafor/Ariza deal I think will ultimately be judged by what the team looks like once everyone is healthy

I mentioned this in the Teddy Sucks thread some time back before life got busy again, will have to go back and find that. Ultimately I think it will be judged on what deals can be extorted in trade with expiring contracts next year. Many teams still loaded up under the old business model when the real hellstorm CBA provisions had not yet kicked in. With the Hinrich deal GMEG showed he knows how to exploit cap pressure, yes we could have been sitting with a fat empty slot for whatever contract we wanted to absorb, I just don't think it realistic that we would have sat still without filling that hole, players and fans expect motion. This looks like motion without locking us into a long term plan. Gives our youngsters some time to season surrounded by smart hard-working veterans. Doesn't burn star good will in the 'Taking my talents to South Beach" era, and improvement is also necessary to keep the casual fan interested. We here on this board are far better informed than that casual fan. Our expectations differ.

Now will I argue that we draft well? We don't. I rarely agree with their picks. Hate burning 2nd rounders when every year our collective brain trust tabs one or two productive guys who do pan out that deep. But I do trust that their read of the business ins and outs is better than mine. Hell I draw and play games for cash on the side, and struggle to pay a mortgage; Teddy's a billionaire. I believe there is something they see that I don't.

Except when it comes to talent evaluation. Then I trust me more...

[fishercob]

I'd rather have Leonard and Faried than Nene and Singleton. Just saying.

Me too, but the argumetn put forth was "if we had just followed these simple steps" we'd have both those guys and Nene and James Harden and probably Eric Bledsoe.

It doesn't hold much water for me.

But I don't think anyone can credibly argue that the moves Ernie made and didn't make have BEST set us up for long term success.

[Nivek]

I don't know whether those specific moves would've worked out exactly as nate describes. However, I'm 100% certain there were moves the Wizards could have made that would have been better than what they actually did.

But...we've had this discussion. Many times.

I hope their moves work out. I hope the team is good. I don't expect it, but I'm hoping.

[nate33]

I'd rather have Leonard and Faried than Nene and Singleton. Just saying.

Me too, but the argumetn put forth was "if we had just followed these simple steps" we'd have both those guys and Nene and James Harden and probably Eric Bledsoe.

It doesn't hold much water for me.

Eric Bledsoe was pure speculation. I readily cede that he may not have been available.

I think it's a near certainty that we could have had at least one of Nene or Harden. If Denver didn't make the Nene trade (because they didn't have Faried), then we would have sucked bad enough through the rest of the year to land Beal (and make the Harden trade).

[LyricalRico]

5) The Okafor/Ariza deal I think will ultimately be judged by what the team looks like once everyone is healthy

I mentioned this in the Teddy Sucks thread some time back before life got busy again, will have to go back and find that. Ultimately I think it will be judged on what deals can be extorted in trade with expiring contracts next year. Many teams still loaded up under the old business model when the real hellstorm CBA provisions had not yet kicked in. With the Hinrich deal GMEG showed he knows how to exploit cap pressure, yes we could have been sitting with a fat empty slot for whatever contract we wanted to absorb, I just don't think it realistic that we would have sat still without filling that hole, players and fans expect motion. This looks like motion without locking us into a long term plan. Gives our youngsters some time to season surrounded by smart hard-working veterans. Doesn't burn star good will in the 'Taking my talents to South Beach" era, and improvement is also necessary to keep the casual fan interested. We here on this board are far better informed than that casual fan. Our expectations differ.

Another good point. If we can take a step forward this year, there will be opportunities to build on that next summer using large expiring contracts and whichever young guys don't figure in the longterm plan.