Horford for Cousins? Need perspective

[F1uxCapacit0r]

I offered Al Horford for Cousins and the guy laughed and called the trade a joke. I thought it was decent value. I get it What you see with Horford is what you get and cousins has more upside, But horford has out produced Cousins every single year from a fantasy perspective.

[TheToothFairy]

I offered Al Horford for Cousins and the guy laughed and called the trade a joke. I thought it was decent value. I get it What you see with Horford is what you get and cousins has more upside, But horford has out produced Cousins every single year from a fantasy perspective.

Horford came off a major injury last yr

[416]

of course he'll laugh at that.

Lets entertain the idea that Horford has out produced Cousins.. (theres no evidence there btw)

You must be very fixated on averages as the only way to value players...

Lets quantify "growth"

Al Horford came in his rookie campaign just a hair shy of a double double. his rebound drop a tad, and points went up by one the following year.

Cousins had 14/8 (rounded rebounds down) as a rookie, while next year he got 18/11. Al horford has never averaged this his entire career.

Lets take horford's best category for pts/reb/steals/blocks for ALL years and make a best case scenario:
Horford's stat line would be : 15.3/9.7/0.9/1.4
Cousins last year: 18.1/8.6/1.2/1
On top of this cousins is expected to improve as a player.

Furthermore, lets now not focus on averages, but ranges (or variance if you will)
Horford's career high for pts/reb/steals/blocks are
31/17/5/7
Cousins
41/20/6/4
these are the numbers that they are capable of when they have their best nights.

qualitatively speaking, watch couple of Atl and king games. You'll notice who is more dominant than the other.

The only argument for Horford is consistency over the 5 years, which is important, but doesn't outweigh all of the above.

this is just one perspective by the way, hope it helps

[Bank Shot]

I'd rather have Horford tbh (assuming this is 9 cat). Huge advantages in the percentages, TOs, and assists.

Cousins in a breakout year last year finished ranked 54th. Horford in his last two healthy years has finished 13th and 19th. With Horford getting a bigger role this year with Iso Joe gone I don't really see his numbers dropping. He's one of the most underrated players in fantasy. Cousins needs to take another big jump just to get to Horford's level. I'd rather have the guy who's all but guaranteed to give 2nd round value than a guy who might if he takes another jump.

[F1uxCapacit0r]

Horford is still relatively young as well. Yes cousins has marginally more pts rbs and blocks but horford owns him in assists, Fg% FT% and TO's by a lot. points and rebounds are the easiest cats to get. Watching games has nothing to do with fantasy value. EXample tony Allen he is a great player defender and very important piece for Memphis, yet he is a terrible fantasy player. these are two completely different games here.
I understand the injury arguement but to say that Horford has not outproduced Cousins when both play (not referring to Sac vs Atl) one has to lean towards Horford

[cochiseuofm]

Here is the problem, if this guy took Cousins he likely took Cousins over Horford already. Cousins is ranked in the early to mid teens on ESPN whereas Horford is in the early to mid 20s. Trades need to make sense, a guy who takes Cousins over Horford isn't going to be interested in swapping the two before a single game has been played.

For what it is worth, I think Horford has great upside as he might become the #1 option in Atlanta finally. But it isn't good value for any team to trade someone who produced better and has less injury issues for that potential.