Political Roundtable Cosmic String of Cataclysm - Part V

[pancakes3]

maybe not fancy 100% customized pencils but i'm sure you can swing generic pencil-clones monte.

[montestewart]

maybe not fancy 100% customized pencils but i'm sure you can swing generic pencil-clones monte.

I'll have to go through Induveca's supplier.

[barelyawake]

Indy, there was a leak from the defense dept that there is already the framework of a deal in place (from the sanctions) to disarm Iran. I assume it means weapons inspectors etc. So, your war is inevitable talk is neocon nonsense. Your average Iranian does want a nuclear bomb (out of national pride), but they don't want to use it. Your average Iranian teenager wants Iran to become more Westernized. They create underground hip hop clubs etc.

And if you think war with Iran is like war with any of those minor countries you mentioned, then you don't understand the situation at all. The LIKELY outcome from a war with Iran is a world war (with Russia and North Korea). Not me saying it. Every general asked has said so. Not to mention gas prices tripling, which will heave us into a depression. Not to mention that we would have boots on the ground for a decade, as once reachable citizens of Iran turn into militants against America. It will cost trillions and deepen our debt for a generation (further driving away investment). Etc etc...

There is a choice. What Obama has done to date is amazingly smart. Cyber attacks. Midnight seal team six attacks of their power lines. Etc. Crippling sanctions while building resentment of the Iranian government by fomenting opposition groups in the country. Building world support for international sanctions and shunning.

The only reason you believe war is inevitable is because you follow neocon news sources.

[fishercob]

Cuban being Cuban:

Mark Cuban ‏@mcuban
Anybody see anyone using Gold to get to front of gas lines in NYC or Jersey ? Didnt think so. Gold is a religion not a currency alternative

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Don't believe in war, never have....but do recognize it as an instinct of mankind. Iran sees it as inevitable. Haiti once invaded the DR, we returned the favor. The US invaded the DR in the 60s as well, Panama, Haiti, Cuba, Grenada, Nicaragua (by proxy), Iraq, Croatia....those are in the last 45 years, off the top of my head. Those attacks came from both parties, the US in general is the largest war-mongering country in the world. It's why investing in defense stocks is always so damn profitable (great advice as a young kid in the 90s from a wise old New Yorker...has held very true).

Main issue I have with the MIddle East, as a kid who grew up around dictator types, is the very dangerous precedent the current US administration set by helping to oust Mubarak in Egypt. Not only oust him, but put him in prison and take every penny he/his family had (that they know of at least....)

Mubarak was most certainly a dictator, but also the US' largest ally in the Muslim world, in its largest country. This wasn't a short alliance, but over 35 years. There is no mistake that Qaddafi fought to the death after seeing what happened to Mubarak, and it's no coincidence Al-Assad is doing the same. If to "transition" power means to land your entire family in jail or be killed, I'd fight to the death as well.

Also the prophecies flying around radical muslim regimes about the coming war with Israel and their "duty" to wipe them off the map isn't just talk. These "prophecies" come from the same type of interpretations Bin Laden and others used to convince thousands to give their lives in martyrdom, 9/11....embassy bombings etc. If you can justify those acts of insanity, getting rid of Israel moer than makes sense.

Peace talks unfortunately won't be enough to get Iran to calm down over time. Sadly, there will be a conflict eventually. I have no idea who will initiate it......does Israel play defense or offense? Big stakes to play defense.

Induveca, when I lived near Fort Benning, GA, there were protestors arrested outside the gate. The School of the Americas was located there.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_He ... _graduates

On the lessons taught at the School, Blair said: "The doctrine that was taught was that if you want information you use physical abuse, you use false imprisonment, you use threats to family members, you use virtually any method necessary to get what you want...[including torture] and killing. If there's someone you don't want you kill them. If you can't get the information you want, if you can't get that person to shut up or to stop what they're doing you simply assassinate them, and you assassinate them with one of your death squads."[14]
"Sources at the [U.S. Army School of the Americas] say that when Honduran and Colombian soldiers go through the urban-combat exercise with blanks in their weapons, half the time the village priest (played by a U.S. Army chaplain) is killed or roughed up," Newsweek reported.[15]

I served my country and as corny as it sounds, would still serve and die if I had to defending it. (If the military would have me, that is. )

My commentary is I think people should be aware of the geopolitical climate. What has been the impetus to drive the US into various armed conflicts? Who are the combatants? What is the threat? What are the reasons for war? What are the desired objectives? What is the exit strategy if we forward project military infrastructure?

I think ideally our nation would be righteous in any and all endeavors. The politicos and the military have a symbiotic relationship that should protect the greater good of America, while it also is humane and fair to our neighbors around the world.

Just looking at the Iraq conflict I always felt like America virtually annexed a country under the guise of looking for WMDs and hunting down Al Qaida. No conflict ended when Saddam Hussein's regime was toppled. Why so many lives lost and what did America accomplish, exactly? I'm not so sure.

As far as ousting Mubarak goes, that seems like history just repeating itself. The US used to like Noriega, but then he fell out and we arrested him for dealing drugs. The US was deeply involved with Muammar Qhaddafi, even folks like Jay Z and Beyonce partied with his son, but then he fell out of favor. It seemed to me Hillary Clinton's trip coincided with his assassination by NATO force. I think it sets a bad precedent when our leadership decides it is okay to take out another sovereign's leadership, no matter how despotic they may be. If you play by those rules they could come after Mitt or Barack down the line.

I like to stick to talking basketball and the Wizards. This stuff is too heavy and is a bit depressing for me. I hardly ever reflect on it too long. My gut feeling is the reason our economy is bad and the reason people in our country are so divided is that we've acted improperly after 9-11 in Iraq and even today, as we launch drone attacks and change cultures in Afghanistan. It is written that righteousness shall exalt a nation. I believe that.

I could be wrong but I think we should be focused on loving one domestically first, and then another abroad. Don't be world police. Clean up our own yard first.

We should be focusing on clearing up problems with meth and crack addictions. We should be fighting a war on drugs coming across our boarders. We should be addressing societal problems like divorce. People should be drafted into something, be it a peace time service or the military, that focuses on making civic, regional and national improvements. People need to stop being preoccupied with the news media and fear mongering. They need to play more sports. Old people need to be part of the extended family structure with their grandchildren and not put away in care facilities to die alone. Instead of pounding kids with stupid stuff in school, show them how credit works and how to buy property and take care of their own families …

Sorry for the rant but the last thing I trust is the US to keep deciding who it is okay to kill in another country. We need to tighten up in this country.

[penbeast0]

Heard this reported yesterday.

75% of Dems want cooperation across party lines.
75% of Rs want their representatives to stand firm to their ideals.

But you can't compromise with people who don't want it or reward it. Sadly the only solution for the Dems is to be as stubborn as the Rs until they change their tune. That or you need more independent elected. Dems and Independents would work together fine.

...
Honesty. Integrity. Knowledge. Service. Those are the core characteristic of what I call a good sales person. Actually, they are good characteristics in general.

Hands, if we are talking core principles, I don't want my representatives compromising either. That's why it's so difficult to have a coherent debate about abortion. If we are talking negotiating numbers, a willingness to compromise or not is just a negotiating strategy and how well it works depends on what you want to get done and if you want it more than the other side. The Democrats generally want to fund government programs more than Republicans do so they logically would be more likely to compromise.

(note: There are people like Ron Paul for whom spending issues ARE core principles and so they are much less likely to compromise . . . and shouldn't be. I don't think that's true of the Republican leadership generally as they showed in the G.W. Bush era they could spend just as profligately as Democrats).

[penbeast0]

...

It is serving the populations in the smaller states. Without the Electoral College our Republic, as we know it, would be drastically different. If I'm not mistaken, the Electoral College was the price extracted by the smaller states to join the union (I'm no historian but that's the way I understand it).

Actually, I watched a historian covering this topic recently. He said it was because the South didn't let slaves vote so the North would have slammed them in every election.

I hope you remember that historian wrong or else he qualified the statement elsewhere. There were two main debates in the fight over the Constitution during the convention.

********************************** Warning: Middle School Civics Lecture. May cause drowsiness. Do not drive or operate heavy machinery while reading *******************************************

The first was the big state/small state fight. The big states proposed the "Virginia Plan" which had proportional representation in Congress. The small states proposed the "New Jersey Plan" which proposed keeping the existing structure of 1 state, 1 vote. They finally split the baby down the middle and created our Congress with two parts, one being proportional and one being 2 votes per state. The Electoral College vote followed from this in terms of proportionality (the 2 votes per state were much more important in the original Congress which far fewer total voting member so it wasn't nearly as close to proportional representation as it is today -- about 60 House seats to 26 Senate seats).

Then the Southern states wanted to boost their population by counting slaves even though they weren't allowed to vote while Northern states opposed it. This was also split roughly down the middle in the 3/5 Compromise which counted each slave as 3/5 of a free person for purposes of representation (and the Electoral College). But the states fighting hardest for protection weren't the Southern states which had more land area and most contemporary observers presumed would grow in population faster; they were the New England states which were generally smaller and afraid of being pushed around, particularly on tariff type issues, by a combination of Southern and possibly new Western farm states.

[Induveca]

Indy, there was a leak from the defense dept that there is already the framework of a deal in place (from the sanctions) to disarm Iran. I assume it means weapons inspectors etc. So, your war is inevitable talk is neocon nonsense. Your average Iranian does want a nuclear bomb (out of national pride), but they don't want to use it. Your average Iranian teenager wants Iran to become more Westernized. They create underground hip hop clubs etc.

And if you think war with Iran is like war with any of those minor countries you mentioned, then you don't understand the situation at all. The LIKELY outcome from a war with Iran is a world war (with Russia and North Korea). Not me saying it. Every general asked has said so. Not to mention gas prices tripling, which will heave us into a depression. Not to mention that we would have boots on the ground for a decade, as once reachable citizens of Iran turn into militants against America. It will cost trillions and deepen our debt for a generation (further driving away investment). Etc etc...

There is a choice. What Obama has done to date is amazingly smart. Cyber attacks. Midnight seal team six attacks of their power lines. Etc. Crippling sanctions while building resentment of the Iranian government by fomenting opposition groups in the country. Building world support for international sanctions and shunning.

The only reason you believe war is inevitable is because you follow neocon news sources.

I understand the Middle East pretty well. Iran won't stop until they have a nuclear weapon, it's the only way in their mind to challenge Israel. The hatred/mistrust of a Jewish nation (and vice versa) obviously runs thousands of years.

How many times have we all heard since the 80s a "framework" for peace between Israel and Palestine was in place? Frameworks mean nothing, in areas riddled with conflict and 3rd world nations "frameworks" are used to delay other nations from enacting sanctions or being too disruptive to a real agenda.

And how does Israel/any major nation with a large percentage of Jews ever trust any type of framework from a government who has made it clear they want to wipe Israel off the map? Their president and religious leaders openly say the holocaust never happened, that Jews are devils.

End of the day, I'm a realist.....the US is a major warmonger, and human nature in general leads to war. Thank male hormones for that fact. I know for damn certain if two guys are intent on mixing it up, it eventually happens unless someone moves from the area or they suddenly become friends out of respect. Israel/Iran will NEVER respect each other. War is inevitable in that area, it's been a warzone for thousands of years, but pretty much nonstop since 1915.

[Induveca]

CCJ, in an ideal world/utopia I agree the US should focus on their own issues. The issue is the question of "what are America's issues?". Thinking domestic US is no longer so simple. To even partially reduce trade and ramp up your own production for domestic consumption is near impossible with the extreme reliance on technology. Lithium etc just isn't really produced in the US. So at that point we've shut down the borders, but are competing with China who buys far more of these resources in bulk, and will happily undercut the US on price.

It's a slippery slope. The US needs to manufacture, but can't compete in product price, obtain the necessary resources, and have a general population who feel they are above such manual labor jobs after a generation of "service economy" professionals and cheap credit.

Localized, community sustained manufacturing and stores are the only way to get any traction. Think of a Wal-Mart, with products produced within a 500 mile radius of that store. The store itself can define general products, but they are supplied by local artisans/manufacturers and otherwise. The corporation takes a licensing fee for all of the products, but a large % goes straight back to the community in sales revenue/jobs etc.

Having Wal-Mart produce "locally" would just mean them shipping IN billions in Chinese product parts, cutting salaries even more, and having 4 or 5 major factories in Arkansas/Iowa etc.

[barelyawake]

Indy, what you are saying is you are resigned to the fact that we will have a world war in the next few years. I'm possitive if you put that to the American people 85% of them would disagree with your choice. That is like saying a war between Russia and the US was inevitable. And I tend to listen to the opinion of the generals, Colin Powell, Richard Armitage, etc etc when they say that Iran is neither our greatest threat, nor is war a must. And I also agree with them when they say that war with Iran would lead to a world war, since Russia has pledged that an attack on Iran will force them to respond (which would upend our economy perhaps for decades).

I assume you remember that I lived in Dubai. The Iranian government and the Iranian people are two very different animals. When you speak of one leader making statements, he is not speaking for the people in general (especially in Iran).

And as I said, Obama has not used this talk of a framework as an excuse. He has disrupted Iranian progress, while stiffening the sanctions so that the people rise up and stop the government. The reason why there is talk of a framework is because the people are about to overthow the government (because of sanctions). The neocons were talking of attacking Iran BEFORE Obama was elected. There is zero doubt they will if Romney was ever elected. Thank God there is no way that is happenning, so we don't have to deal with a world war for the next decade.

[nate33]

Cuban being Cuban:

Mark Cuban ‏@mcuban
Anybody see anyone using Gold to get to front of gas lines in NYC or Jersey ? Didnt think so. Gold is a religion not a currency alternative

Interesting that he goes out of his way in this crisis to take a shot of gold. However, his criticisms only show that he doesn't understand gold. The NYC flood has nothing whatsoever to do with a currency crisis. Gold will only become valuable when people lose confidence in the paper dollar. It doesn't have any special value for use in an isolated situation like the NYC flood. Gold doesn't change the supply/demand characteristics of gasoline.

[montestewart]

Cuban being Cuban:

Mark Cuban ‏@mcuban
Anybody see anyone using Gold to get to front of gas lines in NYC or Jersey ? Didnt think so. Gold is a religion not a currency alternative

Interesting that he goes out of his way in this crisis to take a shot of gold. However, his criticisms only show that he doesn't understand gold. The NYC flood has nothing whatsoever to do with a currency crisis. Gold will only become valuable when people lose confidence in the paper dollar. It doesn't have any special value for use in an isolated situation like the NYC flood. Gold doesn't change the supply/demand characteristics of gasoline.

Maybe he's trying to depress the price so he can buy some more.

[hands11]

The real issue with shipping jobs overseas goes far beyond the simplistic characterization of the BS "unpatriotic" line politicians use (either party). The process of signing a contract in SE Asia is far easier/exponentially cheaper and keeps companies profitable.

It's quite simply, work ethic/cost of doing business in the US is lackluster/expensive.

I can have (via Alibaba) a very reputable manufacturing company (Ssongyang,Rexton etc) begin building me 500 100% customized units of light vans all deliverable via container within 45-60 days TODAY, with a quick wire transfer of 10% down. The general cost of these machines is 300% less, and they are just as reliable as Ford etc. Don't fall for the US line of Chinese cars being unreliable, they are everywhere in South America/Caribbean/Asia/Africa/Eastern Europe. Basically everywhere they don't have their own national brands.

To do the same with Ford would take me 4 months minimum, and that's AFTER the weeks of haggling, contract revisions, travel, and paying US attorney fees.

You could also get cheap labor in the US in the past via children working, slaves and other poor workers who didn't have collective barging rights.

[hands11]

Indy, there was a leak from the defense dept that there is already the framework of a deal in place (from the sanctions) to disarm Iran. I assume it means weapons inspectors etc. So, your war is inevitable talk is neocon nonsense. Your average Iranian does want a nuclear bomb (out of national pride), but they don't want to use it. Your average Iranian teenager wants Iran to become more Westernized. They create underground hip hop clubs etc.

And if you think war with Iran is like war with any of those minor countries you mentioned, then you don't understand the situation at all. The LIKELY outcome from a war with Iran is a world war (with Russia and North Korea). Not me saying it. Every general asked has said so. Not to mention gas prices tripling, which will heave us into a depression. Not to mention that we would have boots on the ground for a decade, as once reachable citizens of Iran turn into militants against America. It will cost trillions and deepen our debt for a generation (further driving away investment). Etc etc...

There is a choice. What Obama has done to date is amazingly smart. Cyber attacks. Midnight seal team six attacks of their power lines. Etc. Crippling sanctions while building resentment of the Iranian government by fomenting opposition groups in the country. Building world support for international sanctions and shunning.

The only reason you believe war is inevitable is because you follow neocon news sources.

I can't think of a better piece of video to represent Republicans.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g[/youtube]

[hands11]

Heard this reported yesterday.

75% of Dems want cooperation across party lines.
75% of Rs want their representatives to stand firm to their ideals.

But you can't compromise with people who don't want it or reward it. Sadly the only solution for the Dems is to be as stubborn as the Rs until they change their tune. That or you need more independent elected. Dems and Independents would work together fine.

...
Honesty. Integrity. Knowledge. Service. Those are the core characteristic of what I call a good sales person. Actually, they are good characteristics in general.

Hands, if we are talking core principles, I don't want my representatives compromising either. That's why it's so difficult to have a coherent debate about abortion. If we are talking negotiating numbers, a willingness to compromise or not is just a negotiating strategy and how well it works depends on what you want to get done and if you want it more than the other side. The Democrats generally want to fund government programs more than Republicans do so they logically would be more likely to compromise.

(note: There are people like Ron Paul for whom spending issues ARE core principles and so they are much less likely to compromise . . . and shouldn't be. I don't think that's true of the Republican leadership generally as they showed in the G.W. Bush era they could spend just as profligately as Democrats).

It wasn't just the Bush W years. It was the Reagan years as well. And before someone posts something silly like, well Reagan had Dems in the house. Actually they gave him less then he asked for. And in the 12 years of Reagan/Bush the nation debt tripled from 1 trillion to 3 trillion. I have been screaming bloody murder about this crap since back then so the idea that Rs have finally gotten religion on this issue is laughable to me. Why didn't the Reagan economic approach work ? Because Trickle Down is Voo Doo economics. It was then and it is still today. Once upon a time, R know that fact. Move to today, and its still the core economic plan of Rs. That alone makes them unelectable in my book.

Dems believe in our Government and rightfully so. Our government is the pride of the world.
They also believe in paying for the things the government/we do. Pay Go
The non fairytale answer to that is you need to collect taxes to do these collective things.
The fairytale answer is, we can lower your taxes and make up the different in exponential growth. lol
That dog don't hunt.

Republicans say they don't believe in Government
They say they hate debt but in actuality, they pile tons of it on every time they are in power.

So now the Rs are running on this idea that we have to cut the debt because it is unfair to future generations. Really ? Where were you the last 25 years. Now after they busted the bank, all the sudden they care about debt ?

Basic common sense say you don't apply the same approach to fixing a problem that created the problem.

But in the down is up and up is down world of R logic, I guess any fact can be flipped on its head. Hey, Mitt saved the auto industry and Obama shipped Jeep jobs to China.. right ?

At some point we need to make some tough choices but we can't have a debate about them until the Rs return to a fact based world. Where we are today is simply, they were losing the debate on facts so instead of conceding or compromising, they decided they would start making up there own facts. That along with their false equivalency stuff has poisoned any honest public debate.

[barelyawake]

My closing salvo before this election...

Go re-watch the movie "The Shock Doctrine" and understand WHY the neocons want to force a war with Iran (and the world). It has nothing to do with their nuclear program, and everything to do with "Shock Capitalism." And thus, they will invent a reason to attack, whether one exists or not.

[Kanyewest]

I really don't trust the media in saying that it is a historically close election. I feel that the media is motivated to do so to increase ratings. I think Obama is going to win based on the 538 forecasts. If Romney happens to win, I will be surprised although not really shocked because he does have a chance to pull it off according to the numbers. Still, I don't consider getting electoral predictions from either Democrat or Republican prognosticators who seem to look for ways in which the numbers support their political causes. It's not like either sides pundits will be considered to make silly predictions like these in the future if they are in fact wrong.

[hands11]

My closing salvo before this election...

Go re-watch the movie "The Shock Doctrine" and understand WHY the neocons want to force a war with Iran (and the world). It has nothing to do with their nuclear program, and everything to do with "Shock Capitalism." And thus, they will invent a reason to attack, whether one exists or not.

Thanks for the post. Shock Capitalism.

No doubt this goes on. Money loves a world of bubbles and busts and manipulating markets.

[dobrojim]

Shock Doctrine, I've read the book. Surely one of Sev's favs
along with Griftopia. Don't remember hearing it was a movie.

[Nivek]

What I'm looking forward to most? The end of political ads. Yeesh.