James Harden is a superstar

[UGA Hayes]

Tsherken I don't understand your pessimism on Harden. He isn't increasing his minutes that much, yet he will be increasing his usage a ton. I actually think that is the flaw in your thinking. That when his usage goes up that his efficiency will go down, but I think the evidence is actually much stronger in the opposite direction that almost any player who is a good handler who sees their usage go up more will improve their efficiency b/c they have greater control of what shot they can take. IMO its why every once in a while a ball dominant guard who takes the reins of a tema think Dicakau and Collison in NO ends up paying well stats wise-b/c they get to be selective on their shots. Similar phenomenon I think exists for point fowards like Kirilinko, Dunleavy, etc.

[MisterWestside]

That when his usage goes up that his efficiency will go down, but I think the evidence is actually much stronger in the opposite direction that almost any player who is a good handler who sees their usage go up more will improve their efficiency b/c they have greater control of what shot they can take.

Haven't seen anything that support this once you control for other variables.

It's true that the high-usage guys won't see as much of an efficiency hit as they assume more offensive burden, but they still tax themselves performance-wise.

[Kabookalu]

If you covered the names you would think that Houston traded for Kevin Durant. Harden's start to this season has been unreal. I doubt he continues playing like a scoring machine but he's far exceeded my expectations as a main option.

[rrravenred]

He's also a new player in a new-look Houston offence. I expect the past couple of games will allow other teams to gamaplan for him a lot better.

Edit: T-mac moving to Orlando after Toronto is an interesting parallel to this...

[Kabookalu]

He's also a new player in a new-look Houston offence. I expect the past couple of games will allow other teams to gamaplan for him a lot better.

I was thinking the same thing, although that's mostly off of assumptions based on possibilities that makes most sense because I actually haven't seen any of the Houston games.

[Dr Positivity]

Daryl Morey man. He had the balls to be all "I can build rebuild a team without tanking" and then he like, did it.

[Mavericksfan]

Tsherkin seems to be the only voice of reason ITT lol.

A lot of you guys seem to believe Harden will go down as an all time great

[ardee]

Tsherkin seems to be the only voice of reason ITT lol.

A lot of you guys seem to believe Harden will go down as an all time great

He will

[Volcano]

To be a superstar, he needs to 1) make a mark against tough D or in pressure situations (see last years finals)

2) Have the same impact on D at least up to Lebron/Wade's level

Right now he's still tier two.

[tsherkin]

my thoughts exactly that's the way to make poor tsherk feel bad. argue against the guy and he'll put up a 45 I feel you.

Heh.

Well, you know what? He played a great game, and I will never bitch so much in defense of a point I'm making that I can't stop and appreciate a really fantastic game of basketball, which is what Harden played. It's still a single game that's so far deviant from sustainable percentages as to mean nothing in the context of the argument, but the timing was FANTASTIC!

Tsherkin seems to be the only voice of reason ITT lol.

A lot of you guys seem to believe Harden will go down as an all time great

Well, we can't discount the possibility that he might, right? It would seem highly improbable, but stranger things have occurred than a really good player getting an opportunity to go elsewhere and exploding.

Tsherken I don't understand your pessimism on Harden. He isn't increasing his minutes that much,

Actually, over the first two games, he's played about 11 more minutes per game than he did last year. He's playing a LOT more minutes, and that won't likely sustain.

But keep the following in mind as well; over two games, this is his stat line:

41 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 7.0 apg, 63.6% FG, 75.8% TS

His eFG% is at 70.5%. He's managing .484 WS/48 (when the all-time single-season record is KAJ at .3399). I mean, no matter how you look at it, we're viewing unsustainable production and trying to extract some kind of predictive value from it, which isn't going to happen.

There is no way that he will sustain anything like that level of efficacy. No way. So right now, we're looking at a pair of really hot games that don't really describe anything. We need a larger sample to see how he does against different defenses, then we need to see what happens when teams see him for the second time, how fatigue wears on him over the course of the season with the extended minutes load...

There's too much at play to draw anything useful out of two games played at the beginning of the season against mostly unimpressive defense. It's encouraging, it's great to see, and it's very much good for his PR campaign, but it's not at all illuminating as to his ability to perform over the length of the season.

yet he will be increasing his usage a ton. I actually think that is the flaw in your thinking. That when his usage goes up that his efficiency will go down, but I think the evidence is actually much stronger in the opposite direction

This is a well-documented correlation, though, it has nothing to do with "my thinking."

Here is a starting point. It's focused on Ewing, but it shows data for Shaq and Garnett, among others, describing a decline in efficiency that correlates strongly with increased usage.

Here is another one, though it's mostly looking at college players.

Then you get this from NBAStatStuffer.com.

Then you pop over to the APBR boards, where it's a topic which has been beaten to death, since it is so important:

Here is a thread you can start in, and here is yet another.

For reference, Dean Oliver has a similar study documenting this phenomenon.

The basic accepted finding from all over is this:

If a 1% increase in a lineup’s summed usage results in a drop of 0.25 points per 100 possessions

Which is then translated to a player level as follows:

for each 1% a player increases his usage, his efficiency drops by 1.25 points per 100 possessions.

Though the above study acknowledges diminishing returns, right, you don't linearly decrease by -1.25 ORTG for all increases of usage. Obviously, there must be some attention paid to the idea that lower-usage players can increase usage without a ton of the changes I've been talking about earlier in this thread, and that if they aren't overextending themselves, then this phenomenon might not kick into effect, but all I'm trying to point out is that the decline in efficiency with significantly increased usage is a documented phenomenon, and not some unsubstantiated invention concocted in my brain. Naturally, it's not a perfect correlation and for many different reasons, there are outlier performances.

McGrady is one, for example. He went from bad ITO scoring efficiency to merely below average, in terms of efficiency, moving from Toronto to Orlando (and with the exception of his dominant 02-03 season).

He was -1.9, -0.7 and -1.4 percent TS% relative to league average as a Raptor, then jumped to +0.3 the year after with a huge increase in role, then +1.2, +4.5, +1.0... and then he went to Houston and returned to being a total waste of skin ITO efficiency (-.4, -4.1, -2.6, -5.3, -5.3) before his career fell apart and he became a roleplayer, then left the NBA.

So he's a weird outlier, but apart from the 02-03 season, he was also shooting way too much for his performance level, and he "improved" from godawful to "barely above league average" ITO efficiency, which isn't a train to which I'd want to hitch my wagon. So to speak.

[bastillon]

where we disagree tsherk, and I think it's because you didn't watch enough OKC last year, is Harden's increased mins and usg and their effect on his efficiency. you seem to be thinking he doesn't have a stamina to play extended mins, but where is the evidence for that ? he only played limited mins last year because OKC had too much talent. when someone was out and Harden had to play more, he did it. same goes for his production with increased usage, when he was the guy who carried the load for extented period of time, his production went up, not down. I'm not even that surprised Harden is putting up games like that. it aint sustainable obviously but he's capable of playing games like that on a consistent basis if teams dont pack the paint more. he has a style of play which puts tons of pressure on the opp defense because he's going to the rim every possession. they just need to understand you have to collapse on Harden to stop him, you have to crowd him as much as possible and make him shoot jumpshots. you also have to take the ball out of his hands at times, which opp haven't been doing at all. the difference between Harden and all those other low efficiency guys is that Harden is actually better creating for himself than playing off ball (though he's elite off ball player). the comparison everyone should be making right now is Steve Nash. different players, different styles, but comparable outcomes as far as increased usage.

[tsherkin]

where we disagree tsherk, and I think it's because you didn't watch enough OKC last year, is Harden's increased mins and usg and their effect on his efficiency.

Stick to discussing the topic, not posters, bast. I watched a ton of OKC last year before the playoffs.

you seem to be thinking he doesn't have a stamina to play extended mins, but where is the evidence for that ?

Nope, not what I said.

What I've been saying and implying is that under the weight of his first year playing extended minutes with a greater scoring role, it's possible/likely that he'll struggle. It's not a comment on his ability to handle the minutes in terms of health or anything, so much as a comment on the fact that defenses will eventually begin making it more difficult for his limited shot selection to maintain and I expect him to have to take more lower-percentage mid-range shots to compensate for that. Plus yes, fatigue will usually play some role in things, especially if the 40+ mpg he's playing right now maintain. But I think fatigue is distant and secondary to the increased face that the defense will have to work with more than anything else.

they just need to understand you have to collapse on Harden to stop him, you have to crowd him as much as possible and make him shoot jumpshots. you also have to take the ball out of his hands at times, which opp haven't been doing at all.

I agree with this section for sure. And again, we'll see this happening more over time because he'll be a focal player rather than a #3, which is why I'm saying we need to observe him at the quarter marks to see how defenses are reacting and game-planning against him after their first (and even second) look.

the difference between Harden and all those other low efficiency guys

Perhaps it's not your intent, but try not to make the mistake of thinking that I'm saying Harden is going to be a low-efficiency chucker. The foundation of his game is a timeless play that doesn't lose its efficacy; I think Harden is going to be good regardless, I'm just arguing that the specific level of efficacy people are discussing and expecting is perhaps a bit much for a first season with all of the floating variables involved in this situation for the 2012-2013 season. I'm not saying he's going to be, whatever, Larry Hughes, you know what I mean? Just be mindful that people are basically predicting +5.5% TS or better, and that's not exactly common, and is almost exclusively done in the second year or later of a player being thrust into a primary situation, as outlined in my earlier post.

the comparison everyone should be making right now is Steve Nash. different players, different styles, but comparable outcomes as far as increased usage.

Mmm... except that Nash's mid-range game blows Harden's out of the water and his efficiency on long-range twos assassinates basically any not-Dirk player in the league, so it's very difficult to comment upon that comparison effectively. Nash is an outlier in terms of his ability to make defenses pay with his middle game, even on some of what are traditionally the most inefficient shots in basketball. Harden is not; he's shot basically 38-41% from 16-23 feet, as compared to the 44-54% Nash has managed (hovering around 50%) in that same vein. Both are obviously exceptional at manipulating screens, but Nash's passing game and jumper make him a poor comparison. Harden has not evidenced a mid-range game of any consequence, which was the foundation of my comment about versatility; it remains to be seen if he can develop one, which is what I'm waiting to see... but which he hasn't been much employing so far this season (in the maniacally small sample we have, granted).

We'll see what happens. Harden's efficiency comes from basically doing nothing but taking the two best types of shots in basketball, shots at the rim (high FG%, high FTR) and 3PA. Part of what I have been saying is that the distribution of shots we should expect to develop over time will likely reflect increase usage of those more inefficient zones on the court as defenses tighten up on him (especially if the rest of the Rockets stay as tepid as they've been so far) and on his favorite locations. It'll be fun to watch him against, for example, Boston, Chicago and Miami.

[pancakes3]

On one hand, I agree with Tserk's "slow your roll" attitude. Of course this production is unsustainable and will inevitably have multiple sub-10point outings this season. On the other, it does seem to move the goalposts a bit since the OP is asking if Harden is a superstar.

Much like his backcourt teammate, the nation is abuzz over Harden's hot streak and is curious to see if it'll continue. I say we let the hysteria sweep us over irrationally. It's part of what makes being a fan so great. We get Linsanity and Hardenmonium - on the same team no less.

[TwentyOne920]

I think Harden could have his first subpar game against Denver - they have one of the best defensive wings in the game in Andre Iguodala, and unless the Nuggets frontline decides that they'd try and go for the block (McGee, I'm looking at you) they could reduce his forays into the paint. Of course, Denver has a tough patch right now (then again, they blow on the road - and the Nuggets ARE playing at the Toyota Center instead of the safety of the Can) but anything goes.

If Harden blows up on Iggy I dunno what Tony Allen can do - then his next biggest challenge will be hosting Dwyane Wade.

[UGA Hayes]

Yeah but in your links there is hardly a concensus, with economics guys arguing the opposite. I think its a mistake to be making some kind of broad base rule that applies to everone or to even a position. Thats one of the reasons I qualified my statement to include ballhandlers. Plus there is an intuitive element that says Oliver statement, the one you quoted isn't totally applicable or at least simplistic or else a guy would have a negative efficiency from the second he steps on the court. Whats seems more likely is that there is a usage threshold in which a player starts to decrease in efficiency and I think its nonsense that that threshold is somehow universal. To me whats more likely is that Harden can improve his efficiency now b/c instead of taking the scraps of offensive posessions he gets to choose what he wants to do, AND b/c he can shoot/drive/pass/dribble his threshold before seeing diminshing returns is better than a guy who lacks one of those attributes. The fact that Harden as a sub was so efficient indicated either an outlier or that he hadn't come near reaching his threshold yet.

So yeah his current level may be unsustainable but I don't think people are really arguing about maintaing his current level but that he will still play at a superstar offensive level. I think its great that we aregetting a chance to put the argument to the test b/c as this thread attests to, Harden (along with Asik) are a couple of the analytics posterboys.

[Krodis]

Just be mindful that people are basically predicting +5.5% TS or better, and that's not exactly common, and is almost exclusively done in the second year or later of a player being thrust into a primary situation, as outlined in my earlier post.

On the other hand, putting up 66% TS% on 19 PP36 isn't exactly common either, and Harden has plenty of experience being "the man" on offense, even if it was against second units (it also was WITH second unit teammates. I mean, Nick Collison is great, but Reggie Jackson/Derek Fisher, Daequan Cook, and Nazr Mohammed are certainly worse than Lin, Parsons, and Asik) This is actually a bit of a new situation for Harden in that he does have control of the offense, but he also has a secondary ball-handler he can defer to who can make a play if necessary. Maynor could do it a little, but not nearly to the extent Lin can. So to me, and having watched a LOT of Thunder games over the last couple years, I have every confidence in Harden's ability to put up a 60% TS% season as the first option. My question is where exactly he would fall in terms of volume. A modest improvement to 22 PPG, or where he was per 36 with the second unit, which was 30 PPG. Well two games gives some indication it might be closer to the latter, although obviously he's not going to sustain 41 PPG on 76% TS%.

[TwentyOne920]

I think what one misses about absurd TS% ratings like what James Harden put out is shot selection. He takes only 3s (and converts at a well above average rate), shots at the rim (and converts well enough), and FT attempts (where he's pretty golden).

If teams want to shut him down, take away the paint and the 3 point line from him, forcing him into an uncomfortable mid-range game (look at Kevin Love). The problem is that he can then shift back into a distributor role, finding shooters, cutters, or a roll man.

If the Rockets trade for a quality two-way big (like Paul Millsap) they could be scary.

[UGA Hayes]

^ Plus stopping a player from shooting 3s is easier said then done, especially one who can dribble. I'm not really sure you can force him into a midrange game.

[MisterWestside]

Yeah but in your links there is hardly a concensus, with economics guys arguing the opposite.

Um, that's exactly the problem.

Keep in mind that in a game with many confounding variables, this isn't an simple phenomenon to observe. Witus's study (http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008 ... fficiency/) is the only one that has looked to address this so far; he used 5-man units to eliminate selection bias.

[tsherkin]

On one hand, I agree with Tserk's "slow your roll" attitude. Of course this production is unsustainable and will inevitably have multiple sub-10point outings this season. On the other, it does seem to move the goalposts a bit since the OP is asking if Harden is a superstar.

No, I think it tidily answers both issues:

It's too early to tell. Signs point to yes like 2.5% of the way through the season, but that doesn't matter. I'm not saying that Harden isn't, I'm saying we don't know enough. He looks great so far, but he's also playing at an unsustainable rate and hasn't been second-scouted as a primary scorer, that's all. Can't tell a superstar from 2 games.


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