James Harden is a superstar

[tsherkin]

Yeah but in your links there is hardly a concensus, with economics guys arguing the opposite. I think its a mistake to be making some kind of broad base rule that applies to everone or to even a position.

I directly acknowledged that there are specific factors that must be considered, and even outlined a few. Obviously, as I even said, volume of increase, on-court role and so much else needs to be considered. It's not an absolute correlation, but Harden's situation fits the basic bill well. This is very much a wait-and-see situation, which was my point, and I did acknowledge the possibility that he could be an outlier.

Whats seems more likely is that there is a usage threshold in which a player starts to decrease in efficiency

Which is exactly what I believe, yes.

and I think its nonsense that that threshold is somehow universal.

And I don't believe it IS universal, so this isn't a salient point. I've made direct statements noting that it's contextual.

To me whats more likely is that Harden can improve his efficiency now b/c instead of taking the scraps of offensive posessions he gets to choose what he wants to do, AND b/c he can shoot/drive/pass/dribble his threshold before seeing diminshing returns is better than a guy who lacks one of those attributes.

This is a strange notion that flies in the face of 60 years of NBA history, unless you think he'll be the most efficient player in NBA history.

So yeah his current level may be unsustainable but I don't think people are really arguing about maintaing his current level but that he will still play at a superstar offensive level. I think its great that we aregetting a chance to put the argument to the test b/c as this thread attests to, Harden (along with Asik) are a couple of the analytics posterboys.

It's interesting, that's for sure. We'll learn something useful about how a fairly bi-nodal scoring approach translates to higher usage, that's for sure, and if Harden can/will/needs to expand his game.

^ Plus stopping a player from shooting 3s is easier said then done, especially one who can dribble. I'm not really sure you can force him into a midrange game.

Aggressively pressure him on the wing and pack the paint. It won't work flawlessly, but it'll help. Also, forcing him to raise his 3PA/g will itself cause a diminishing return unless he's Ray Allen from 3, except as an on-ball shooter.

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[MisterWestside]

To me whats more likely is that Harden can improve his efficiency now b/c instead of taking the scraps of offensive posessions he gets to choose what he wants to do, AND b/c he can shoot/drive/pass/dribble his threshold before seeing diminshing returns is better than a guy who lacks one of those attributes.

Not true. High-usage guys over a season routinely take shots that they are "forced" to take, especially guarded shots and lower efficient midrange shots.

[tsherkin]

Stupid TapaTalk ate my other post, grr... *hate*

On the other hand, putting up 66% TS% on 19 PP36 isn't exactly common either,

True, but per-minute stats do not consider everything involved in raising MPG and not all stats actually correlate with a linear increase.

My question is where exactly he would fall in terms of volume. A modest improvement to 22 PPG, or where he was per 36 with the second unit, which was 30 PPG. Well two games gives some indication it might be closer to the latter, although obviously he's not going to sustain 41 PPG on 76% TS%.

I doubt he'll be anywhere near 30 ppg and 60% together, unless he magically breaks out as the best wing scorer since MJ at his absolute physical apex. He'll very likely be in the 20-24 ppg range, perhaps even higher, but his efficiiency will not stay at 60%+ at super-high scoring volume. He will not be able to continue taking the same rim/3pt-only shot selection at the shooting volume necessary for ~ 30 ppg, and shots from 3-23 feet have diminishing FTR and hover between 40-44% mostly, and often closer to the 40 side.

[tsherkin]

Also, if Harden increases his 3PA/g without maintaining his AST% on those shots, he's going to see diminishing returns. That is likely, as well, since they'll mostly be on-ball 3s, unless Houston starts spamming spot-up sets for him ala Ray-Ray.

[UGA Hayes]

To me whats more likely is that Harden can improve his efficiency now b/c instead of taking the scraps of offensive posessions he gets to choose what he wants to do, AND b/c he can shoot/drive/pass/dribble his threshold before seeing diminshing returns is better than a guy who lacks one of those attributes.

Not true. High-usage guys over a season routinely take shots that they are "forced" to take, especially guarded shots and lower efficient midrange shots.

Well the crux of the argument to me is that I feel like you are using the term high usage as some kind of constant universal force sort of like gravity and I don't think it quite works that way. For me Harden is more like a Nash or Paul, a guy with so many tools, the basketball equivalent a five tool player, that he can weather the effects of increasing usage better than other high usage players.

Also I don't buy that Harden wasn't already taking those kind of shot and rountinely too when he was on OKC. They were a low assist, high isolation team so he was likely taking his share of at the end of the clock/contested shots

[Vator]

I have been lurking in this thread for nearly a year (oddly enough because I never thought that my team would ever have the opportunity to aquire Harden, but I was a fan of his) because you statistic geeks (and I mean that in the most endearing of ways) amaze me. I don't completely even understand what you guys are talking about 15% (or more) of the time, but I also imagine that these are the type of debates and conversations that the GM of the Rockets has often since he is one of the poster boys in the NBA for this type of advanced statistical data type stuff. You guys are awesome!

I completely agree with the guy who was saying that this will be a fun season to watch and see if guys like Harden and Asik can prove the analytics guys correct in player evaluation. I think Morey's job is definitely on the line here. So far so good...

[An Unbiased Fan]

Superstars aren't made in a few games, they're made throughout a season. We'll have to see how Harden holds up for a full 82-games, after teams have gameplanned for him.

I will say this though, Harden has the tools to become a superstar. I'm MJ wishes he could have moved CHA's pick for harden back during the draft.

[MisterWestside]

Well the crux of the argument to me is that I feel like you are using the term high usage as some kind of constant universal force sort of like gravity and I don't think it quite works that way.

Well it's something that you can observe form watching basketball and also measure empirically. No one's arguing that it's universal (players differ skillset-wise of course, so different "tradeoffs" exist) but this is not some made-up phenomenon.

For me Harden is more like a Nash or Paul, a guy with so many tools, the basketball equivalent a five tool player, that he can weather the effects of increasing usage better than other high usage players.

Nash and Paul don't do this. Like other points, most of their shots are unassisted -- but they don't shoot the ball alot anyway, and they'll more often pass the ball to an open man instead of taking a tough shot.

Also I don't buy that Harden wasn't already taking those kind of shot and rountinely too when he was on OKC. They were a low assist, high isolation team so he was likely taking his share of at the end of the clock/contested shots

Not any more than Westbrook and Durant (low teens % wise).

Also, James Harden was assisted on half of his shots in '12 OKC. Durant's assisted on alot of shots too, but the difference is that Durant took more shots per game and also often took the least efficient shots on the floor from midrange, shots that lower-usage players hate taking (40% of Durant's shots were from 10-23 feet from the rim). Harden took 10 shots a game, and half of those shots came from three with a near mid-80s% of those 3-pters assisted. Another 3 shots came at the rim with 30% assisted. He didn't take alot of shots anywhere else.

In Houston, he'll be forced to take more shots, and more shots out of his comfort zone as defenses gameplan for him.

[Doctor MJ]

^ Plus stopping a player from shooting 3s is easier said then done, especially one who can dribble. I'm not really sure you can force him into a midrange game.

Oh I disagree. There is a reason why the best superstar 3-point shooter don't actually shoot that many 3's. The key to making the 3 is getting a good look more than it is being ridiculously gifted as a shooter.

So yeah, I think the questions asked about Harden's layup & 3 shooting habits are exactly the concerns to have. I just had a good amount of faith in his IQ and adaptability, so I thought he could translate to a true alpha solidly.

Of course it goes without saying that I certainly wasn't expect him to score 40 PPG on hyper-efficiency, since it would be absurd if he kept it up. It is however hard for me to imagine that Harden isn't actually even better than I thought he was given what we've seen. I know, I know it's only two games, but Harden just looks so damn comfortable out there despite the defense being fixated on him.

[UGA Hayes]

^ Plus stopping a player from shooting 3s is easier said then done, especially one who can dribble. I'm not really sure you can force him into a midrange game.

Oh I disagree. There is a reason why the best superstar 3-point shooter don't actually shoot that many 3's. The key to making the 3 is getting a good look more than it is being ridiculously gifted as a shooter.

So yeah, I think the questions asked about Harden's layup & 3 shooting habits are exactly the concerns to have. I just had a good amount of faith in his IQ and adaptability, so I thought he could translate to a true alpha solidly.

Of course it goes without saying that I certainly wasn't expect him to score 40 PPG on hyper-efficiency, since it would be absurd if he kept it up. It is however hard for me to imagine that Harden isn't actually even better than I thought he was given what we've seen. I know, I know it's only two games, but Harden just looks so damn comfortable out there despite the defense being fixated on him.

Yeah but how many superstars are great three point shooters and among the better ball handlers at their position especially at the guard/wing position. Nash and.... KD, Dirk, Love and to a lesser extent Pierce aren't as good handling the ball, while guys like Kobe, CP3, Melo, Rose can handle but aren't great 3 point shooters. Even a similar player like Ginobil isn't as good a shooter or ball handler. McGrady in his heyday had a similar skill advantage and he wasn't as good a shooter either. Vince Carter maybe had a similar combo and he was considered a supertalent. IMO Harden is a fairly unique player in that respect and its why I think he is sort of getting underrated. His combination of shooting, size, and skill should on potential alone make him a top 5 offensive talent.

[tsherkin]

Yeah but how many superstars are great three point shooters

Not many, because in order to be a great three-point shooter, you usually need to be an off-ball player. Once AST% on 3PA goes down, you start to see players struggling more and more to shoot the 3 very effectively unless they happen to have the shot going that night.

McGrady in his heyday had a similar skill advantage and he wasn't as good a shooter either.

You'll want to amend that to read "as good a shooter," because McGrady had a nasty jumper before he hit Houston, and that was a big part of why he was so much less efficient as a Rocket, because that J was gone with his knees and back.

IMO Harden is a fairly unique player in that respect and its why I think he is sort of getting underrated. His combination of shooting, size, and skill should on potential alone make him a top 5 offensive talent.

Mmm... but even still, Harden gets assisted on 82.3% to 92.3% of his 3PA/g, so it's hard to really say what he'll do with the 3 as a Rocket over the season. Comparatively, Kobe has maxed out at 68.0% over the past 6 seasons, and that's a big part of why he's not shot over 36.1% in that time frame. Also, he has the worst shot selection I've ever seen from 3 this side of Antoine Walker, but again, that's part of it: they aren't assisted buckets created by the offense, they're iso shots and heat checks. The same deal kind of applies to Jordan; we could see fairly clearly that when he was regularly taking the 3, even without the line pulled in, he was a pretty good shooter from there. Not epic, but still pretty good. When he was only taking an end-clock shot here or a bail-out there, on the other hand, his efficiency plummeted. So you can't really look at Harden and assume that his 3P% from OKC will necessarily carry over into Houston.

It might, which would be fantastic, but unless the team expends a lot of effort setting him up for those shots, he is likely to see his 3P% decline, at least a little, which will mollify the effect of that shot on his game.

[Ayt]

The season is not over yet. Harden just had a 1-11FG 0-8 3-P shooting last game.

Plus, he is the only player in that list that is a bench player. All the other players are starters playing against starters.

Sorry, he is not a superstar. Whoever gives him a max contract will regret it big time.

I am calling it now and you guys can bookmark it.

Nice bookmark.

[Doctor MJ]

Yeah but how many superstars are great three point shooters and among the better ball handlers at their position especially at the guard/wing position. Nash and.... KD, Dirk, Love and to a lesser extent Pierce aren't as good handling the ball, while guys like Kobe, CP3, Melo, Rose can handle but aren't great 3 point shooters. Even a similar player like Ginobil isn't as good a shooter or ball handler. McGrady in his heyday had a similar skill advantage and he wasn't as good a shooter either. Vince Carter maybe had a similar combo and he was considered a supertalent. IMO Harden is a fairly unique player in that respect and its why I think he is sort of getting underrated. His combination of shooting, size, and skill should on potential alone make him a top 5 offensive talent.

The fact that there aren't a ton of super 3-point shooting superstars doesn't seem that relevant so much as that when you look at the ones who are super-good, they don't typically shoot that much.

To this point, in terms of all around shooting ability, Harden's still not nearly as proven as the Dirks & Nashes of the world. That he shot more 3's than them last year was not a product of him being their equal shooting-wise, but a product of his off-ball play.

Now, can you have an offense that attempts to play up Harden's off-ball shooting even more in Houston? To some degree sure. You do have to worry about the defense never shying away from Harden because there is no Durant on the floor with him, but yes, if it's your goal, you can have a great 3-point shooter shoot a lot of 3's.

The entire theory though behind Harden being Houston's max guy is that his playmaking ability and more dynamic shot creation ability will catapult his value up to that level. If you do that, he's not going to be doing a ton of on-ball 3's unless he's playing stupid hero ball, and ff you go away from that, then he's not worth it.

[UGA Hayes]

I don't disagree with parts of what you say but I don't see why Harden won't get the same looks in Houston. So he was assisted on a bunch of his 3s, so what? Its not like OKC was this great passing team, in fact they were one of the worst in the league, so I don't really see an implied threat that he wont see the same looks, especially since he plays with a guy who can drive and kick. And your comments on Kobe IMO are in line with what I have said. Kobe could be in the 5 tool category but he prevents himself from being in it by taking bad shots, that Harden won't take, so why is that being held against Harden.

I forgot one name who acually could be argued as a good 3 point shooter and driver and that is Deron Williams, and a lot of people consider him a superstar (I don't), and Harden numbers project to be better then Deron's.

[Ayt]

To the guys touting Harden as a max player, do you know what that value implies?

That kind of careless spending is exactly the sort of tom-foolery that ruins team finances for years at a time. Harden isn't a franchise player; he's a talented guy critical to their success and he's performing very well off of the bench but that doesn't make him a max level player. Certainly not predicated upon the role he has played thus far. Max money equates him to Durant, Lebron, etc in value, which is laughably absurd.

What is absurd is equating a max contract with the need to be on the level of a LeBron or Durant. With an artificial cap on individual salaries, players like Harden are easily worth max contracts. That is especially true of guys on their first max deal.

[tsherkin]

To the guys touting Harden as a max player, do you know what that value implies?

That kind of careless spending is exactly the sort of tom-foolery that ruins team finances for years at a time. Harden isn't a franchise player; he's a talented guy critical to their success and he's performing very well off of the bench but that doesn't make him a max level player. Certainly not predicated upon the role he has played thus far. Max money equates him to Durant, Lebron, etc in value, which is laughably absurd.

What is absurd is equating a max contract with the need to be on the level of a LeBron or Durant. With an artificial cap on individual salaries, players like Harden are easily worth max contracts. That is especially true of guys on their first max deal.

Heh, this is what I get for commenting on contracts without properly recalling that "max money" is a relative term. When I wrote that post, I was thinking about a larger contract than the one that Harden has actually received right now, which was duly pointed out to me at the time.

[UGA Hayes]

So lets take a break from arguing and actually predict what we think Harden's end of year numbers are going to be. I will go first.


26ppg, fg: 50%, TS%: %65% ish, 3 pt%:, 39%, 5 rbds, 5 assists, TO 3.5

[Doormatt]

26 points on 65TS% while being that good of a playmaker is like MVP/best player in the league type numbers.

[Dr Positivity]

I'll go high and say 28 pts, 7 asts, 5 rebs .58 TS%. Rockets will need to rely on Harden's scoring a lot considering their lack of depth.

[tsherkin]

So lets take a break from arguing and actually predict what we think Harden's end of year numbers are going to be. I will go first.

At this point, I want to point out AGAIN that numbers of that sort aren't common.

There have been 3 seasons where a player has managed 26+ ppg and 65%+ TS over 41+ games.

Kevin McHale, Adrian Dantley and Charles Barkley.

What's the theme there?