James Harden is a superstar

MisterWestside · Post #461 » by **MisterWestside** » Sat Nov 3, 2012 9:53 pm

UGA Hayes wrote:So he was assisted on a bunch of his 3s, so what? Its not like OKC was this great passing team, in fact they were one of the worst in the league, so I don't really see an implied threat that he wont see the same looks, especially since he plays with a guy who can drive and kick.

Assisted shots are more likely to be converted than unassisted shots http://www.82games.com/assisted.htm

Combine this with using a lower volume of possessions, and efficiency can stay dang high.

Post #462 » by **UGA Hayes** » Sat Nov 3, 2012 10:12 pm

Ok so give us the numbers you think he will get. Thats the point of the exercise. You have even cited a formula by Oliver that predicts the amount of drop in efficiency he will have as his usage goes up so you must have a number in mind if you trust the formula.

Post #463 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sat Nov 3, 2012 10:14 pm

MisterWestside wrote:
UGA Hayes wrote:So he was assisted on a bunch of his 3s, so what? Its not like OKC was this great passing team, in fact they were one of the worst in the league, so I don't really see an implied threat that he wont see the same looks, especially since he plays with a guy who can drive and kick.

Assisted shots are more likely to be converted than unassisted shots http://www.82games.com/assisted.htm

Combine this with using a lower volume of possessions, and efficiency can stay dang high.

Right, an assisted shot implies that the ball was passed to him because he was open and ready to take an efficient shot. That a team isn't a "great" passing team speaks to how often such great opportunities occur not whether they happen.

And of course, the general trend with 3's basically always since teams truly embraced it as an offensive lifestyle is that you want your open role players taking the shot because it will lead to these opportunities presenting themselves. Hence, it's basically the exact sort of thing you'd expect to go away when a guy turns alpha.

Post #464 » by **tsherkin** » Sat Nov 3, 2012 10:16 pm

UGA Hayes wrote:Ok so give us the numbers you think he will get. Thats the point of the exercise. You have even cited a formula by Oliver that predicts the amount of drop in efficiency he will have as his usage goes up so you must have a number in mind if you trust the formula.

I've done so already.

EDIT: Although it's not based on the formula, per se. The formula was only ever brought up to highlight the fact that there has been a lot of discussion about the usage-efficiency tradeoff, not because I specifically wanted to advance the idea that the precise details of the conclusions were gospel.

SunKing · Post #465 » by **SunKing** » Sat Nov 3, 2012 11:42 pm

UGA Hayes wrote:So lets take a break from arguing and actually predict what we think Harden's end of year numbers are going to be. I will go first.

26ppg, fg: 50%, TS%: %65% ish, 3 pt%:, 39%, 5 rbds, 5 assists, TO 3.5

I'm on the Harden bandwagon but dude that some sick stuff ! Even prime MVP/NBA Winner (2007 and 2011) Nowitzki was barely ever able to score 23+ and being above 60TS%

Then again Gilbert Arenas had 58TS% season, if Harden can go as often to the line as him (very possible), still being a 39% 3 point shooter with something like 6 a game and still finish as strong to the rim through the whole season he can have a 60TS% but that's the absolute peak I see in him this season because you're predicting is Harden being the most efficient volume guard scorer in the history of the game... Better in this aspect than a prime Wade or a prime Jordan

C-izMe · Post #466 » by **C-izMe** » Sun Nov 4, 2012 2:08 am

I'm going 22/5/5 on 57TS.

Lightning25 · Post #467 » by **Lightning25** » Sun Nov 4, 2012 7:10 am

UGA Hayes wrote:So lets take a break from arguing and actually predict what we think Harden's end of year numbers are going to be. I will go first.

26ppg, fg: 50%, TS%: %65% ish, 3 pt%:, 39%, 5 rbds, 5 assists, TO 3.5

22-25 ppg, 5/5 assists/rebounds with 45-47% FG, and 56-58% TS% and I think he'll average about 3.5 topg as well.

Amare_1_Knicks · Post #468 » by **Amare_1_Knicks** » Sun Nov 4, 2012 6:13 pm

If he keeps taking around 18-20FGA per game and getting to the line about 8 times per game -- then IMO it woudn't be outrageous for him to be putting up 25-28PPG.

I'll say he puts up 26.5/5.5/6 for the season on 58%TS.

fast-break · Post #469 » by **fast-break** » Sun Nov 4, 2012 8:47 pm

Hardens looking great, but he's also pulling in heavy minutes carrying the load alongside Jeremy Lin so you have to wonder how that'll wear on him throughout the season. 25ppg this season is looking pretty realistic though.

Post #470 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Nov 4, 2012 9:09 pm

fast-break wrote:Hardens looking great, but he's also pulling in heavy minutes carrying the load alongside Jeremy Lin so you have to wonder how that'll wear on him throughout the season. 25ppg this season is looking pretty realistic though.

Eh, we'll see what the minutes look like with more sample size, but this is a 23-year old here, some young guys can play a ton of minutes without feeling it.

colts18 · Post #471 » by **colts18** » Sun Nov 4, 2012 10:23 pm

24-5-5, 61 TS%

pancakes3 · Post #472 » by **pancakes3** » Mon Nov 5, 2012 12:15 am

Dr Positivity wrote:I'll go high and say 28 pts, 7 asts, 5 rebs .58 TS%. Rockets will need to rely on Harden's scoring a lot considering their lack of depth.

That's peak wade territory.

JordansBulls · Post #473 » by **JordansBulls** » Mon Nov 5, 2012 5:05 pm

I think this guy will probably lead the league in scoring this season. Not sure if his efficiency would stay up though.

ahonui06 · Post #474 » by **ahonui06** » Mon Nov 5, 2012 5:11 pm

Harden had an awful shooting night against Portland because they have athletic, lanky wings who can alter his shots. Batum was over Harden all night and that lead him to shoot 8 for 24. When Harden goes up against the taller more athletic wings like Batum and Marion he will have some issues.

JordansBulls · Post #475 » by **JordansBulls** » Mon Nov 5, 2012 5:36 pm

ahonui06 wrote:Harden had an awful shooting night against Portland because they have athletic, lanky wings who can alter his shots. Batum was over Harden all night and that lead him to shoot 8 for 24. When Harden goes up against the taller more athletic wings like Batum and Marion he will have some issues.

That is until he learns how to adjust or maybe just adapt his game. Not to mention it was his first home game as a Rocket so more pressure.

bbms · Post #476 » by **bbms** » Mon Nov 5, 2012 7:08 pm

24 ppg, 5 rpg, 5.5 apg, 4 topg, 60% TS. Top 20 player in the league at least.

I think he will slow a lot down when defenses figure out how to press his pick and roll game. But once Houston get an elite big and gets cohese on defense, they'll do harm.

Krodis · Post #477 » by **Krodis** » Mon Nov 5, 2012 10:28 pm

ahonui06 wrote:Harden had an awful shooting night against Portland because they have athletic, lanky wings who can alter his shots. Batum was over Harden all night and that lead him to shoot 8 for 24. When Harden goes up against the taller more athletic wings like Batum and Marion he will have some issues.

Actually, he got a lot of good shots. He just missed some layups. He had tired legs.

Tirion · Post #478 » by **Tirion** » Tue Nov 6, 2012 7:21 am

Baiting

JordansBulls · Post #479 » by **JordansBulls** » Tue Nov 6, 2012 7:49 pm

bbms wrote:24 ppg, 5 rpg, 5.5 apg, 4 topg, 60% TS. Top 20 player in the league at least.

I think he will slow a lot down when defenses figure out how to press his pick and roll game. But once Houston get an elite big and gets cohese on defense, they'll do harm.

Wait huh? He was pretty much a top 20 player in the league last season as a 6th man. Now he is the #1 guy on a team. I think he will be a top 10 player this season.

Mavericksfan · Post #480 » by **Mavericksfan** » Thu Nov 8, 2012 3:37 am

Another good team, another bad game...

Next up, Tony Allen.