The Lebron Thread

[C-izMe]

Lebron is freaky this season. It's like a new player out there. The team is dominating right now and all of the big three/Ray seem to be playing at the highest level they can (offensively). 3 20 point scorers so far and only one bad offensive game (Knicks). I think I like the way they played last year around mid season when Wade was healthy more though.

[SideshowBob]

Building on this, I wanted to point out MIA's TOV% in the first 4 games

vs. Bos - 7.9%
vs. Nyk - 21.5%
vs. Den - 7.8%
vs. Pho - 13.7%

Now 4 games is 4 games, but that NYK game definitely looked anomalous offensively. I'll give it some time, who knows, maybe the Knicks are just world-beaters defensively, but I don't think we should be expecting very many poor offensive showings to that extent by Miami this season, and I don't see them frequently having games with that high of a TOV% either.

vs. Bkn - 12.5%

Managed a 58.4% eFG% as well. So we're seeing more of the same, Miami's dominating offensively despite being awful with 2 of the 4 factors of offense (2nd to last in ORB% and about league average at FTR).

Stronger defenses are going to make easy shots quite a bit more difficult, so we're going to see those eFG% and TOV% numbers get a bit weaker, but that's when we saw Lebron's effort level shoot up and that relentless basket-attacking that's currently being largely used as only a threat, will actually come into play. That career low FT/FTA rate we've been witnessing? That's not going to sustain, we're going to see him rack up FTA attempts against the elite teams, and we should see the same with Wade (to a lesser extent). That covers the FTR factor, and that makes me confident that these high team ORTGs can sustain over the course of the season. What could be a bit problematic however, is the offensive rebounding. They're really going to have to make an improvement on that end, though of the 4 factors, I believe ORB% shows the weakest correlation to overall offensive performance, so I'm not too worried.

[SideshowBob]

Also, the statline right now means absolutely nothing.

Here's a random 9 game stretch from 2009, (2/22 - 3/7)

Code: Select all

G    MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TS%    ORTG   GmSc
9    36.5  23.6   7.0    6.3    1.1    0.9    .580    120    19.7

Here's a 5 game stretch in 2010, (10/28 - 11/5)

Code: Select all

G    MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TS%    ORTG   GmSc
5    36.9  22.6   8.4    7.8    1.4    0.4    .561    112    19.8

And I can find multiple stretches like that in almost every single season. They're just a lot more noticeable when they're early in the season like this because they show up on the seasonal statlines.

[jjgp111292]

I expect LeBron's numbers to finish around 27-28 PPG, .600 TS%. Looking at last season, it really is alarming how much that elbow-injury-induced slump dragged down his numbers. After the all-star break, he was really getting into a nice groove (28.9 PPG .607 TS%) but then those five straight poor shooting performances killed it dead in the water. But then in April he seemed to bounce right back and looked fantastic (29.5 PPG, .605 TS% in only 36.8 minutes per game). Barring any injury, he should be a complete monster this year.

[therealbig3]

There are only two ways he won't win MVP this year:

-an injury

-the media gets on the Durant bandwagon super hard, spins the same weird narrative about LeBron's "superteam", and completely ignores the fact that LeBron's clearly the best player in the game

[SideshowBob]

Through 5 games (remember, sample size), here are Miami's numbers with Lebron On/Off

120.9 ORTG On (+17.6), 108.7 ORTG Off (+5.4)

108.0 DRTG On (+3.1, dreadful), 102.7 DRTG Off (-0.6)

Defense obviously needs to improve, but Miami as a whole has been trending upwards on that front.

The big thing that stand out, Miami's playing elite offense with Lebron off the floor, they're still in the top 5. That makes that On court number even more impressive, that's a drastic lift for an offense that's already performing pretty efficiently.

We saw similar offensive lift in 09 and 10 in Cleveland.

2009

116.4 On (+8.1), 103.7 Off (-4.7)

2010

116.6 On (+9.0, 101.6 Off (-5.8)

What's different is that here he's lifting an elite team to GOAT level, rather than poor teams to best in the league levels. That speaks to his rejuvenated offensive portability. I believed that there was an argument to be made against 2011 and 2012's ability to lift great offensive teams to elite status as well as Cleveland Lebron's. This was essentially the macro-level effect of the problems I (and IG2/toodles23 had been describing earlier in this thread. He had progressed skill-wise, but had regressed in his strengths so far that the net effect was negative relative to 09/10. But with his revived on-ball creation ability this year, I don't see this as an issue anymore. In fact (and I mentioned this a page or two back as well), putting his relatively polished skillset together with his on-ball creation ability puts him at an even higher level offensively than before, while also bolstering his portability, and we're seeing the impact of that right now.

What remains to be seen is defense. The preseason was about the most active I've seen Lebron defensively, and Miami was dominating teams on that side of the ball, most largely due to his activity level (understand that I mean he was simply most responsible for that, not that it was all due to him; Miami's got a very good overall defensive system). If he can sustain somewhere close to that level of impact, while playing like this offensively (and then carrying this through the playoffs), I'm ready to start making the case for this being not just his best season or a GOAT level season, but essentially the GOAT season. I considered him close to Shaq and Jordan in 09/10 already, and a solid improvement from that would put him over the top for me.

[PCProductions]

There are only two ways he won't win MVP this year:

-an injury

-the media gets on the Durant bandwagon super hard, spins the same weird narrative about LeBron's "superteam", and completely ignores the fact that LeBron's clearly the best player in the game

I think people can still give MVP to someone even if the media admits that they aren't the best player in the league. Pretty sure this was the case with Derrick Rose.

[colts18]

So far the Heat have played 27.8 minutes (56 possessions) with the Big 3 on the court and either Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis on the floor (Both Lewis and Allen haven't played a minute together on court with the big 3 yet):

28 minutes
126.8 O rating
59.5 FG% (4-10 in 3 pts)
.673 TS%


It wouldn't surprise me if they finish with a 118-120 O rating with those guys on the court for the whole season. The Heat offense is going to be elite this year. The question now is whether the defense will hold up.

[SideshowBob]

So far the Heat have played 27.8 minutes (56 possessions) with the Big 3 on the court and either Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis on the floor (Both Lewis and Allen haven't played a minute together on court with the big 3 yet):

28 minutes
126.8 O rating
59.5 FG% (4-10 in 3 pts)
.673 TS%


It wouldn't surprise me if they finish with a 118-120 O rating with those guys on the court for the whole season. The Heat offense is going to be elite this year. The question now is whether the defense will hold up.

The defense will hold up. Here's how Lebron's teams have looked defensively for the last 4 seasons.

2012 - 100.2 (-4.4)
2011 - 103.5 (-3.8)
2010 - 104.1 (-3.5)
2009 - 102.4 (-5.9)

I maintain that Lebron looks better himself this season defensively than he ever has before. I expect that to translate at a team level (though if he's not playing substantial minutes, then I can see them taking a hit), so I expect them to be at least around -4.0.

[therealbig3]

There are only two ways he won't win MVP this year:

-an injury

-the media gets on the Durant bandwagon super hard, spins the same weird narrative about LeBron's "superteam", and completely ignores the fact that LeBron's clearly the best player in the game

I think people can still give MVP to someone even if the media admits that they aren't the best player in the league. Pretty sure this was the case with Derrick Rose.

Pretty much the only way the best player in the league doesn't win the MVP is when his team finishes significantly behind another team that's led by another superstar. I don't see the Heat trailing anyone in the standings too much this year though, if at all, and LeBron is clearly on another level than anyone else right now. If the Heat win 60+ games and LeBron keeps playing this way, it would take a ridiculous amount of hate to give the MVP to someone else.

[MacGill]

Sideshow, just wanna to give you props for keeping this thread going with respect to LBJ. At least when it's said and done we'll be able to come back here and get very good analysis' of major key aspects throughout his career. This will be a big bonus once he passes his overall prime

Nice job man!

[SideshowBob]

Sideshow, just wanna to give you props for keeping this thread going with respect to LBJ. At least when it's said and done we'll be able to come back here and get very good analysis' of major key aspects throughout his career. This will be a big bonus once he passes his overall prime

Nice job man!

Thanks, that's what I hoped to do. I even asked Doc once about trying to set up a whole bunch of player-specific threads on the PC board. It'd be great for posterity's sake and we'd have easy access to discussions and commentary.

[PCProductions]

Sideshow, just wanna to give you props for keeping this thread going with respect to LBJ. At least when it's said and done we'll be able to come back here and get very good analysis' of major key aspects throughout his career. This will be a big bonus once he passes his overall prime

Nice job man!

Thanks, that's what I hoped to do. I even asked Doc once about trying to set up a whole bunch of player-specific threads on the PC board. It'd be great for posterity's sake and we'd have easy access to discussions and commentary.

That would be a great idea. I feel like Chris Paul is another good player to have a thread like this about.

[JordansBulls]

There are only two ways he won't win MVP this year:

-an injury

-the media gets on the Durant bandwagon super hard, spins the same weird narrative about LeBron's "superteam", and completely ignores the fact that LeBron's clearly the best player in the game

I think people can still give MVP to someone even if the media admits that they aren't the best player in the league. Pretty sure this was the case with Derrick Rose.

Or how MJ even with the best record in the league and won 69 games still didn't get mvp when it was the tied for the 2nd most wins ever in a season.

[PCProductions]

There are only two ways he won't win MVP this year:

-an injury

-the media gets on the Durant bandwagon super hard, spins the same weird narrative about LeBron's "superteam", and completely ignores the fact that LeBron's clearly the best player in the game

I think people can still give MVP to someone even if the media admits that they aren't the best player in the league. Pretty sure this was the case with Derrick Rose.

Or how MJ even with the best record in the league and won 69 games still didn't get mvp when it was the tied for the 2nd most wins ever in a season.

Yeah pretty much. People get tired of handing the same player the award over and over even if they obviously deserve like Lebron or Jordan in their respective peaks.

[toodles23]

Yeah pretty much. People get tired of handing the same player the award over and over even if they obviously deserve like Lebron or Jordan in their respective peaks.

This season feels way more like '92 than '97, as far as the media goes. They'll be happy to hand him another MVP now that he's "proven" himself, it's next season where you'll see the voter fatigue set in.

[MisterWestside]

What's different is that here he's lifting an elite team to GOAT level, rather than poor teams to best in the league levels. That speaks to his rejuvenated offensive portability.

I agree with this, but there's much more that speaks to the Heat's super-charged offensive output.

1) team depth/talent. The Heat may have snatched up the Big 3 in their first season, but the spare parts on the roster were marginal: an old Ilguaskas, an old Dampier, an ineffective Eddie House, Arroyo, the brick-laying Mike Bibby, etc. Chalmers was in his 3rd season and didn't even start until the Heat parted with Arroyo. Mike Miller was injured. It was the Big 3 + a dysfunctional supporting cast, and even with the sheer talent of the stars you still have to put good parts around them to use against other 5-man lineups. While LeBron certainly benefited from going to the post, he also didn't have the luxury of playing an inside-out game with players that weren't all too efficient at making open shots, and this led to LeBron eating more of their usage with more shot-creation. It's not a coincidence that most of those players were not on the '12 Heat roster. Now compare that to the current roster: Allen, a healthy Lewis, Battier, a healthy Mike Miller, a more-seasoned Chalmers, Cole. Sure, LeBron going to the post allows the Heat brass to assemble the rest of the roster with those players, but those players are all superior offensively and most of them have experience playing in the James-Wade-Bosh dynamic. This help to eliminate rogue play on offense and more of the "pace-and-space" game we see from the Heat today.

2) circumstance. Remember, most other GOAT players didn't leave their team in their prime to join another team (not that this should be frowned upon, of course), and no other team in NBA history came together with three super-high usage players in their primes. The Bulls made MJ their guy and built around him, the Lakers did the same with Shaq (no, Kobe fans; Shaq was the focal point of those title squads). That wasn't the case for LeBron here, and therefore this isn't an apples to apples comparison.

[SideshowBob]

Wade's out tonight with the Flu and Allen's likely making the start. I'm interested in seeing how this starting lineup performs

[SideshowBob]

Scratch that, Miller started

[SideshowBob]

So-so game tonight. Didn't look to aggressive even with Wade out. Got to the rim a few times pretty easily. He was getting guys good looks late in the fourth, but they weren't converting. Didn't look to score at the end of the game, but I'd guess that he didn't want to bang around in the land with that bruised knee.