Why can't we develop players?

[nate33]

Why can't we develop players?

Think about it. Who was the last player we drafted who blossomed into a quality starter in this league? Here's a list of our recent draft picks:

2012
Beal - We don't know yet, but it's by no means a sure thing that he'll ever be a good starter.
Satoransky - Probably will never play in this league

2011
Vesely - A bust. At best, a role player off the bench
Singleton - Looks like a bench role player
Mack - Journeyman at best

2010
Wall - Starter, but was a starter as a rookie and has shown no significant improvement
Seraphin - Improving. Perhaps the only recent example of a developmental success. Though much of it might be because he plays for the French national team. And he's still not a starting quality player yet.
Booker - A role player. Was a pretty good role player as a rookie. No dramatic signs of development since. Won't be a starter.

2009
Traded pick for Mike Miller

2008
Javale McGee - 5th year in the league. Still not a starter.
Bill Walker - Journeyman. Is he even on a roster this year?

2007
Nick Young - Not a starter.
Dominic McGuire - Role player

2006
Pecherov - Bust. Out of league.

2005
Blatche - Still not a starter.

2004
Devin Harris - traded for Jamison
Peter John Ramos - Out of league

2003
Jarvis Hayes - Never any good. Out of league
Steve Blake - Journeyman role player

2002
Jared Jeffries - Never a quality starter
Juan Dixon - Journeyman role player.
Rod Grizzard - Out of league
Juan Carlos Navarro - Never panned out in the NBA

2001
Kwame Brown - Never a decent starter despite being the #1 overall pick

2000
Mike Smith - Who?

1999
Richard Hamilton - Yay! The most recent example of a bonafide success story of developing a draft pick. And we traded him.

Seriously. How is this even possible? It's been 13 frickin' years since this team has drafted a player and molded him into a quality starter. You would think that once or twice, we'd manage to get lucky and at least find someone. There are probably about 100 quality starters in this league who were drafted in the past 10 years, and we're not responsible for even one of them. We even blew a #1 overall pick with Kwame. And so far, Wall hasn't proven to be anything more than an average starter, and he was that good on Day 1 so we can hardly get the credit for grooming him.

What are we doing wrong? How can it be stopped?

[sashae]

I think there's a two-fold problem here. One, we have terrible developmental infrastructure due to years of just having overall bad roster talent, assembled by King Ernie the Dull. Without talented peers to challenge those around you, you won't get better. We can't hire talented coaches, or we can't retain them (Hopla, Thibs.)

The larger problem, IMO, is that we draft unbelievably poorly. This is wholly on Grunfeld's shoulders. The latest car wreck in Vesely is a prime example.

You look back at the draft, you arguably could have taken 10 players other than Vesely at that spot and done better -- this isn't even a situation of one guy going late and the draft that the board loved that would have been a better pick, but I'd argue that ending up with ANY of Kemba Walker, Brandon Knight, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic, Kawhi Leonard, Kenneth Faried, Bismack Biyombo, Chandler Parsons, MarShon Brooks, or hell, Isaiah Thomas we'd have been better off. The Vesely pick and Ernie's continued insistence on ignoring the second round is utterly criminal, and should be enough to can him alone, much less all of his other failings.

This is a travesty many, many years in the making, with many folks involved. Until you can Ernie I don't think you can fully unwind how f'd up things are.

[montestewart]

Multiple reasons, but getting rid of EG could help move the team past this and numerous other measures of failure. The team needs a general manager.

[Knighthonor]

I think there's a two-fold problem here. One, we have terrible developmental infrastructure due to years of just having overall bad roster talent, assembled by King Ernie the Dull. Without talented peers to challenge those around you, you won't get better. We can't hire talented coaches, or we can't retain them (Hopla, Thibs.)

Problem with that theory,
Is how did Lebron develop on the Cavs? What aout Kobe? Wade?
Lots of players did well developing around lesser talent.

[FAH1223]

we need to clean house with the front office and scouting department

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate, why can't some people cook good food? What makes some people good musicians? What is in the eye of a good artist that enables them to capture a scene and interpret on the canvas, or to create a great sculpture, or to work with various shapes and textures in a way that makes good art?

Washington's ownership and the collective who have given us the Wizards IMO are a pretty obtuse lot. They don't spend time on the most important things and their passion isn't for their young players. They don't use analytics well and they don't critically evaluate players in a sufficiently objective way to make good personnel decisions.

A really good cook has to spend a lot of time learning. They have to understand seasoning, sauce making, and every trick of culinary arts to provide tasty food. They know where to get the freshest ingredients. The Wizards pluck up stale stuff and day old bread at times.

I compare the Wizards to a tone deaf musician who refuses to practice the scales. Picking up other folks' veterans because they are "respected" is like listening to an auto-tune performing pop sensation and proclaiming them a great vocalist. Listen and discern with a critical ear. Don't just read reviews or look at that artists' gate receipts. Quality matters if you care about quality. The Wizard draft a guy like Vesely with an agenda in mind, IMO. Otherwise, they would have considered the quality of guys like Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried.

nate, this is all abstract stuff. I will tell you bluntly what I think:
1. They started off very poorly in 2005 picking finesse big men three seasons in a row.
2. For a long time, they ignored the need to beef up the frontcourt with a brawny rebounder.
3. With respect to roster construction, the Wizards have neglected balance and symmetry for years. Too many young "dumb" guys has been followed by "too many overpaid veterans" who by the way are taking minutes from young guys.
4. Ernie Grunfeld and Ted Leonsis. No Free Agent Wants To Play In DC ????? Damn. Just quit with that mentality.

I am too drained to fully articulate, but I think the #! reason is God Don't Like Ugly: Every player gets called a knucklehead. They very likely called the cops on Gil, wanted him prosecuted so they could void his deal. They care about what Ted wants--which IMO has nothing to do with a team that kicks ass. No, he and Ernie have their own thing, whatever it is.

It sucks.

[Halcyon]

It's funny actually, Ted wants to build through the draft, and we have a guy who's proven to be incompetent at finding good players in the draft.

[Knighthonor]

It's funny actually, Ted wants to build through the draft, and we have a guy who's proven to be incompetent at finding good players in the draft.

Yeah what happen to that second round euro guy anyway?

[AFM]

He's our ace in the hole. Keeping him in Europe until we make our late playoff run this year. Apparently he's a 6'7 PG with Chris Paul handles, Derrick Rose explosiveness, distributes like Rondo, and shoots like Ray Allen. We are just lulling the rest of the league into a sense of security before we unleash Weapon X-- Tomas Santorasky

[fishercob]

I think "player development" is somewhere between a myth and a misnomer and the real problem is that we just draft the wrong guys over and over.

We have consistently valued mystical potential over actual production and been moved by things like how high a guy jumps, how his shot looks when it goes in, and the kinds of skills he may possess for his size -- rather than soberly looking at actual performance and production.

McGee could jump to the moon. Young had a pretty jumper. Blanche could dribble behind his back before hitting a jumper on every 5th try.

You'd think we would have learned from that lesson, but instead took a reactionary and unbelievably stupid approach based on more mysticism -- get "winners," "competitors," guys who worked and practiced hard, etc. And while singleton and vesely and booker are a little easier on the soul, they're still not very productive. It's a failure of scouting and due diligence, plain and simple.

I wish I could find the clip -- I have looked -- of David Blatt on vesely. May have been draft night on ESPN. He says "he has no NBA position and isn't skilled or strong enough." it's not like the warning signs weren't there. We just have the wrong people making decisions. Until Ernie is replaced and our player evaluation is revamped, it will be more of the same.

[nate33]

To be fair, I should probably point out that I forgot Haywood in my initial list. He wasn't technically drafted by Washington, but we traded for him before his rookie year started (2001). I'd say Haywood qualifies as a draft pick who was ultimately developed into a legit NBA starter.

It's notable that, like Rip Hamilton, Haywood played his first few years under Doug Collins. Could it be that Collins was the last guy in Washington who knew how to develop players?

[nate33]

For giggles, here's a look at the recent draft history of another team that sucked real bad a decade ago: the Chicago Bulls

2000
Jamal Crawford - rotation player, borderline starting-caliber in his prime
Marcus Fizer - rotation player. Never really developed

2001
Tyson Chandler - top 10 at his position
Eddy Curry - ate himself out of league
Trenton Hassell - rotation player

2002
Jay Williams - career ending injury
Roger Mason - Journeyman
Lonny Baxter - out of league by end of rookie contract

2003
Kirk Hinrich - Starter for many years

2004
Ben Gordon - Had a few good years as a starter. Still a rotation player
Luol Deng - Top 10 at his position
Chris Duhon - Rotation player, had a few good years as a starter
Andres Nocioni - Borderline starter/rotation player

2006
Tyrus Thomas - Rotation player
Thabo Sefolosha - Starter

2007
Joakim Noah - Top 10 at his position
Aaron Gray - Journeyman

2008
Derrick Rose - Superstar and MVP

2009
Taj Gibson - Starting caliber player
James Johnson - Respectable rotation player

2010
Omer Asik - Starter

2011
Jimmy Butler - Too early to tell

2012
Marquis Teague - Too early to tell

So out of the 21 guys drafted between 2000 and 2010, the Bulls ended up with 1 MVP (Rose), 3 guys who are top 10 at their position (Chandler, Noah, Deng), 4 guys who were legit starting caliber players for a good chunk of their career (Asik, Gibson, Sefolosha, Hinrich), 3 more guys who were borderline starter or 6th man type of players (Crawford, Gordon, Nocioni), 5 more guys who are rotation-worthy players (Tyrus Thomas, James Johnson, Duhon, Hassell, Fizer), and 2 journeymen who were good enough to stick around the league for multiple contracts (Mason, Gray). One guy had a career-ending injury (Williams). Out of 21 players, there were only 2 guys that didn't really last past their rookie contract: Eddy Curry and Lonny Baxter.

Now THAT'S how you find and develop players.

In our draft history since 2000, we have 0 MVP's, 0 top 10 players, 2 legit starters (Wall and Haywood), and one guy who is a 6th man/borderline starter (McGee). Everyone else is a backup player at best, with Seraphin showing some promise to reach 6th man status.

[Zonkerbl]

Yowch.

[Zonkerbl]

You know, another way to compare us to the Bulls is do a side by side comparison by draft position -- #1 overall, Wall vs. Rose. Picks 2-5: Wash -- Beal, who else? Chicago -- ??? Picks 6-10: Wash -- Ves, ??? Chicago -- ???

Maybe we've just been screwed by the draft lottery and can legitimately claim not to have had the chance to draft starting quality talent. Or maybe we just plain suck at drafting.

For awhile it seemed like we were pretty much set at our starting rotation with Arenas, Butler, Jamison, and misc. SG (Hughes, Stephenson) and Ern used his late teen picks to make wild bets on talent that he hoped nobody else had seen (Pecherov) or noone was willing to take a chance on due to obvious knuckleheadedness (McGee, Blatche).

When you have to overhaul your whole roster, you can't swing for the fences. You have to draft the Jae Crowders of the world. You can't throw away draft picks. That's what Ernie did with Oakariza trade and the Sato pick.

On the other hand, how good would Chicago be without Rose or Boozer? Better than 0-12, probably. How good would Indiana be without Hibbert and Granger? Although you can't really give Ern a pass for Nene being injured -- sounds like there were warning claxons going off all over that Nene had foot problems. But, you know, I did some research on whatsisname who got plantar fasciitis at Sacramento (Billy something?) and he did eventually recover and played several good years afterwards. It just takes FOREVER to heal. Although I'm worried that Nene doesn't actually have plantar fasciitis but a ligament tear in his foot.

[fishercob]

Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Bulls (paraphrasing)
Now THAT'S how you find and develop players.

Again, I dont think it's about development as much as it is about selecting the right guys. I don't think any of the BUlls' success stories would have failed here or elsewhere. Their process for identifying talent is simply better than ours. The overwhelming majority of other teams' is too.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We have consistently valued mystical potential over actual production and been moved by things like how high a guy jumps, how his shot looks when it goes in, and the kinds of skills he may possess for his size -- rather than soberly looking at actual performance and production.

This is the reason most responsible for why Washington doesn't draft exceptionally well.

I think there is also some sort of art to assembling the right group of players to form a stable, supportive, functional, winning squad. I think the Wizards don't draft enough disparately skilled players. Rebounding, perimeter shooting, post scoring, ball handling, breakdown specialists, tall defenders, quick guards, etc. each have different skill sets. Washington seems to draft with no forethought of who they're picking. (Except in 2010, when they drafted defenders in a way that made sense IMO.) The scouting approach is lacking IMO.

Beyond drafting talented players the GM needs to know which free agents are likely to be positive contributors on and off the court. The coach should not throw young players under bus and create a toxic environment. The coach needs to have a winning persona. There has been a leadership void from ownership down, but Ted is relatively new.

I think Ernie and post coaches since Flip are much of the problem.

[Nivek]

I think "player development" is somewhere between a myth and a misnomer and the real problem is that we just draft the wrong guys over and over.

We have consistently valued mystical potential over actual production and been moved by things like how high a guy jumps, how his shot looks when it goes in, and the kinds of skills he may possess for his size -- rather than soberly looking at actual performance and production.

McGee could jump to the moon. Young had a pretty jumper. Blanche could dribble behind his back before hitting a jumper on every 5th try.

You'd think we would have learned from that lesson, but instead took a reactionary and unbelievably stupid approach based on more mysticism -- get "winners," "competitors," guys who worked and practiced hard, etc. And while singleton and vesely and booker are a little easier on the soul, they're still not very productive. It's a failure of scouting and due diligence, plain and simple.

I wish I could find the clip -- I have looked -- of David Blatt on vesely. May have been draft night on ESPN. He says "he has no NBA position and isn't skilled or strong enough." it's not like the warning signs weren't there. We just have the wrong people making decisions. Until Ernie is replaced and our player evaluation is revamped, it will be more of the same.

fish just summarized my thoughts on the subject. This past draft is a great example. They could have picked Jae Crowder -- highly productive in college, hard worker, leader, tough, strong, energetic, enthusiastic, smart -- and "developed" him into a starter at SF on the cheap. They burned the pick on Satoransky who might one day join the team -- and maybe not.

This offseason, they made a point of NOT pursuing young players with ability. Because they already had "enough." Which -- as some of us said at the time -- was a preposterously stupid thing to do.

Seriously, when the "braintrust" of the 2nd worst team in the league decides they don't need to add talent, there's a ginormous problem with the thinking aspects of franchise management.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Stupid just about sums it up.

We on this board have been trying to help for years but they've got the answers. (Wrong ones, consistently.)

[Higga]

Bad ownership
Bad Front Office
Bad coaching
Bad talent

[pancakes3]

Yeah to echo what a lot of people have said - we draft the wrong players. The idea of player development, as Fish said, is of the utmost hubris. The NBA is a league where you can't outrun or outjump. The difference between a 40 inch vert and a 30 inch vert is all of 0.23 seconds of hangtime. That can't compare to the advantage you get in positioning when it comes to rebounding, or anticipation in shotblocking.

Furthermore, teams don't develop talent - players do. In the offseason it's up to the individual to have a routine. You get a scrapper like Danny Green who's been forced to work his tail off and improve every season and he'll "develop" faster than say... Nick Young.

It's weird that the NFL and the NBA is still so heavily reliant on physical stats as opposed to result-oriented stats like baseball.