KOTB- The Last Stand MIL/MIN/DAL

[Texas Chuck]

Please vote clearly yes or no as to whether or not all teams vote yes or no.

This deal is based on feedback Ive received from Minny fans and Bucks fans regarding previous trades Ive made involving their teams. I cant provide either a RealGM Trade ID or a link to ESPN Trade Machine as both trade checkers dont like me trying to swap some of these pieces. Im still really confident the numbers work for each team.

The deal also takes place once Rubio is back and prior to the deadline and assumes Minny and Milw are still playoff contenders and Dallas is at-best a fringe playoff contender.


Milw out: Dalembert (6.7M exp)
Milw in: Kaman (8.0M exp)

Dal out: Kaman(8.0 exp), Mayo (4.0, 4.2 player option), Dahntay Jones (2.9M exp) Total Out $14.9M
Dal in: Roy(5.1M, 5.3 team option), Ridnour(4.0M, 4.3M), DWilliams(4.8M,5.0M,6.3M team option) Total 13.9M

Minny out: Roy(5.1M, 5.3 team option), Ridnour(4.0M, 4.3M), DWilliams(4.8M,5.0M,6.3M team option) Total 13.9M
Minny in: Dalembert(6.7M exp), Mayo(4.0M,4.2 player option), Dahntay Jones(2.9M exp) Total 13.6M

Milw does this because they are looking more and more like a real playoff contender in the East and Kaman gives them a different kind of big. They have plenty defensive-minded shot-blockers and Kaman gives them a post scoring option.

Minny does this to improve their shooting guard position and their team defense. Daly gives them a veteran defensive big and rim-protector something they currently dont have(no offense Stiesma), Dahntay gives them a lockdown wing defender esp dealing with shooting guards and Mayo obviously brings shooting and scoring from the SG spot. They clear out one of their extra pgs and cash in Williams to give themselves a legit shot to advance in the playoffs and give their young core a taste of winning. This also clears them plenty of cap to resign Pek (and Budinger whom they seem to see as core)

Dallas simply does this to take a chance on Williams figuring it out. Dallas desperately needs young talent. It hurts to give Mayo up but we knew he was only a rental when we signed him and if we really want him we can chase him in FA in the offseason. Williams and Ridnour cut into their cap for the offseason but they will still have room for a max contract if they want to chase a big fish. And obv Matrix and Dirk expire the next year so cap space really isnt an issue in Dallas.

[Trader_Joe]

Hmm....

Easy yes for the Bucks, in fact I would have them add more value.

Minny.. basically it's using D.Will to dump Ridnour and get better this season, though I do think they get considerably better. I'm not sure who sticks around of Daly and Mayo after this season which makes it a risk... though that risk is losing D.Williams which may not be a big deal and they may be the front-runners to re-sign these guys. Mayo may stick around to be on a quality team that drafted him originally.

Dallas... If they are ready to give up on this season it makes sense. The way Mayo is playing he was opting out anyway and Kaman and D.Jones expiring anyway. I don't know if they would be content giving up on this season and cutting into about $10m of their 2013 cap space, but since it's coming from a Mavs fan I'll trust you on this.

KOTB: Yes.

[lewdog]

I would personally drive the "Minnesota 3" to Dallas to make this deal. I might even have a future 1st in the glove compartment to cement this for Minny. Also, the deal seems more than fair for the Bucks. Yes for your KOTB.

[Texas Chuck]

Dallas... If they are ready to give up on this season it makes sense. The way Mayo is playing he was opting out anyway and Kaman and D.Jones expiring anyway. I don't know if they would be content giving up on this season and cutting into about $10m of their 2013 cap space, but since it's coming from a Mavs fan I'll trust you on this.

As far as this year goes, we are a mess. We have major problems all over the place and as much I as believe in Dirk Im just not sure he gets back soon enough to have all our new pieces adjust to playing with him in time to make us more than a fringe playoff team and even with Dirk we still have no pg, struggle mightily on the glass(Dirk will help some here but not enough ) and we arent very good defensively.

I also dont think Dal should be a big player in FA this year (barring of course Paul or Howard wanting to come--which obv they wont). I dont want to spend big longterm $$$ on the 2nd tier guys when we dont have any core in place. Im more than willing to sacrifice cap next year to get some young assets.

[jscott]

This would be a Yes from a MN fan. I can't speak for the rest of the teams involved.

[ModIn]

Easy no from Dallas.

Don't see what it does for us? It might worsen our record and better our draft pick.
But with Dirk back we will never get to pick Top 5.
And besides that its basically a crapshoot anyways.

Value wise its horrible.
I mean yeah Kaman and Mayo are expiring. But what Ive seen so far this season, they would probably the two guys I would resign first in FA. Mayo is playing pretty good basketball. And Kaman next to Dirk could be something to watch out for.

I am not a fan of DWilliams. Not at all. Especially with Dirk still occupying that PF spot. Does anyone think he is a future starting SF or that he could "replace" Dirk in a few years.
Roy having surgery again basically means that he is done for. Mayo is better than him anyways. Ridnour adds money next year and is not really of anyhelp for Dallas. If we give up on the season, we better figure out which of our guys backing up Collison is worth keeping.

Basically, Mayo vs Roy, Dahntay vs Ridnour (1yr longer contract) and Kaman vs Dwill.
And we don't get even a pick. Ugh.

[shrink]

Easy no from Dallas.

..

Basically, Mayo vs Roy, Dahntay vs Ridnour (1yr longer contract) and Kaman vs Dwill.
And we don't get even a pick. Ugh.

It's interesting when you write it this way. Since I see this deal as DAL looking ahead, I don't agree with your contention:

Mayo vs Roy: DAL loss -- Next year, Roy will be released with his team option, so it's nothing vs nothing. This year, Mayo is playing, and he got paid perhaps a little under market.

Dahntay vs Ridnour: DAL slight win: -- the question comes down to whether you think Ridnour is worth $4.3 next year. I'd say that's a decent price - many posters from other teams are OK with it too.

Kaman vs D Williams: DAL win: Again, since Kaman is an expiring, it's a question of whether Williams is worth his rookie scale contract next year. I think the answer has to be yes. Sure, it's fair to be unimpressed with the bulk of his work, but there is no denying the athleticism and potential. Williams is averaging 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG. If he did this every game, I'd say, "meh." However, he has fits and starts. Two games back, he 4 pts and 5 RB. Last game, he had 23 PTS, 7 RB and 4 BLKS. With top picks, you look at flashes of brilliance, and Williams still has those -- amidst the majority of mediocrity. I think that means he still has value for a team that is looking for upside.

[mattg]

The value is fine for the bucks, but the trade is totally unnecessary. Kaman would be a bad fit and would probably be unhappy with getting back up minutes because he's an atrocious defender. Also, I'd rather keep Daly as a situational big for matchups against teams with big bodied centers that sanders and Udoh have trouble with.

[ModIn]

It's interesting when you write it this way. Since I see this deal as DAL looking ahead, I don't agree with your contention:

Mayo vs Roy: DAL loss -- Next year, Roy will be released with his team option, so it's nothing vs nothing. This year, Mayo is playing, and he got paid perhaps a little under market.

Dahntay vs Ridnour: DAL slight win: -- the question comes down to whether you think Ridnour is worth $4.3 next year. I'd say that's a decent price - many posters from other teams are OK with it too.

Kaman vs D Williams: DAL win: Again, since Kaman is an expiring, it's a question of whether Williams is worth his rookie scale contract next year. I think the answer has to be yes. Sure, it's fair to be unimpressed with the bulk of his work, but there is no denying the athleticism and potential. Williams is averaging 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG. If he did this every game, I'd say, "meh." However, he has fits and starts. Two games back, he 4 pts and 5 RB. Last game, he had 23 PTS, 7 RB and 4 BLKS. With top picks, you look at flashes of brilliance, and Williams still has those -- amidst the majority of mediocrity. I think that means he still has value for a team that is looking for upside.

I disagree.
It is not out of the question that the Mavs resign both of Mayo and Kaman. In fact i would recommend it if (and we most likely will) strike out again in free agency. Kaman is Dallas only true center right now....
And in comparison to Dwilliams and Roy, they could help you win some games. If Dallas decides to tank ( which they won't with Dirk being healthy and if he is out for the season, it does not matter anyways), they should get better rental value plain and simple. Mayo is a complete bargain this year. And so is Kaman.

Roy is done. Especially as a future asset for a rebuilding franchise.

DWilliams does nothing for Dallas. If he ever puts it together, he will do it as a PF. Dirk will occupy that spot for the next 2 years. Even if DWill breaks out and plays great, he won't start over Dirk during that timespan. Don't think that a backup will garner you much in a trade.
Afterwards you have to pay him if you want to annoint him to Dirks successor.
I don't see anything that makes me believe that you want to have him as a cornerstone of your franchise. Still would rather pay and have Mayo going forward.

Dahntay is a very serviceable defender at the 2 spot. Ridnour is a good backup PG. If we however downgrade massively from Kaman and Mayo to Roy and Williams, we really don't need one. Beaubois, Jones and Cunningham are 3 1st round picks which compete for this spot. I rather see what they can do if we don't care about winning at all this season.

[shrink]

Thanks for your post. You made quite a few points, but let me address one of the main ones:

It is not out of the question that the Mavs resign both of Mayo and Kaman.

This is true, but they are free agents. Whatever you pay for them, it's at best market-value. They are worth exactly what they get paid -- probably less because you need to outbid all other teams. I think we can treat that as having a net zero-value in the future, assuming they are paid what the market will bear.

If these are net zero players next year, then you can simply look at the other players and their current contracts and say, "Is that a better way to spend our cap space?" At this point, it becomes subjective over who you think is on a good contract or bad one, but the net-zero approach simplifies the decision. Then you can decide "Is Williams a better asset than the cap space?" "Is Ridnour?" Personally, I think they both have slightly better value than that.

[Texas Chuck]

The value is fine for the bucks, but the trade is totally unnecessary. Kaman would be a bad fit and would probably be unhappy with getting back up minutes because he's an atrocious defender. Also, I'd rather keep Daly as a situational big for matchups against teams with big bodied centers that sanders and Udoh have trouble with.

Kaman isnt a terrible defender by any means. Hes not an elite defender of course and not as good as Daly but he can hold his own and is plenty big enough(bigger than Daly for sure) to deal with those big centers you mentioned. I thought he would be a great fit because you have so many PF types who are decent defenders (Sanders,Udoh,Henson) and he brought a new dimension. If hes guarding the other teams 2nd best offensive big hes not going to hurt you and he adds a lot at the other end.

I could easily have left Milw out of the deal and I think it still holds interest for Minny but I truly thought Kamen was a good fit in Milw and that Minny had less need for Kamen's offense and would prefer the better defender.

I appreciate the Milw perspective tho.

[ModIn]

Thanks for your post. You made quite a few points, but let me address one of the main ones:

This is true, but they are free agents. Whatever you pay for them, it's at best market-value. They are worth exactly what they get paid -- probably less because you need to outbid all other teams. I think we can treat that as having a net zero-value in the future, assuming they are paid what the market will bear.

If these are net zero players next year, then you can simply look at the other players and their current contracts and say, "Is that a better way to spend our cap space?" At this point, it becomes subjective over who you think is on a good contract or bad one, but the net-zero approach simplifies the decision. Then you can decide "Is Williams a better asset than the cap space?" "Is Ridnour?" Personally, I think they both have slightly better value than that.

Well in a vacuum only looking at the next July 1st they both are net zero-value.
But than again if you follow this logic, every non-max-non-rookie-contract signed is at best a net-zero value asset ( if you leave out guys like Ray Allen taking a discount).

A

A new contract represents usually the current market value of the player. That does not mean that he does not have any trade value.
Could both of them walk? Sure. Could Mayo sign an extension before July 1st? Why not? There have been reports that Cuban will atleast offer one.
And Kaman has this whole Dirk-German team connection. It is not a coincidence that both came to the Mavs.
But lets say, Dallas thinks that they will not resign and that Dallas wants to give up on this season and accept a downgrade in exchange for futures. This decision has to be made at the deadline and it will be made.

For the purposes of this trade you have to look at the value of each piece at the trade deadline. Not at July 1st. On July 1st, this trade is not possible.

Now it is not Kaman,Mayos, Jones expirings vs Ridnour and Williams + Roy (exp).
It is value of potential pieces acquired in a deadline deal from selling off Kaman, Mayo and Jones vs Williams and Ridnour.

Under the tanking premise, I would be tempted to call Sam Presti and ask what he thinks of a rental of Kaman, Mayo and everyonelse he wants in exchange for some of his future assets (they have a future DAL 1st!).
Westbrook/Mayo/Durant/Ibaka/Kaman for example could be pretty lethal offensively and you would still have enough defenders to shuffle in from the bench to make this work.

You have to be very very convinced that Williams is capable of outperforming his contract in order to make this a viable deal for the Mavs.
And that on a team with a hall of fame PF and almost nothing else left. Williams is an undersized PF.....

[lewdog]

It's interesting when you write it this way. Since I see this deal as DAL looking ahead, I don't agree with your contention:

Mayo vs Roy: DAL loss -- Next year, Roy will be released with his team option, so it's nothing vs nothing. This year, Mayo is playing, and he got paid perhaps a little under market.

Dahntay vs Ridnour: DAL slight win: -- the question comes down to whether you think Ridnour is worth $4.3 next year. I'd say that's a decent price - many posters from other teams are OK with it too.

Kaman vs D Williams: DAL win: Again, since Kaman is an expiring, it's a question of whether Williams is worth his rookie scale contract next year. I think the answer has to be yes. Sure, it's fair to be unimpressed with the bulk of his work, but there is no denying the athleticism and potential. Williams is averaging 10.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG. If he did this every game, I'd say, "meh." However, he has fits and starts. Two games back, he 4 pts and 5 RB. Last game, he had 23 PTS, 7 RB and 4 BLKS. With top picks, you look at flashes of brilliance, and Williams still has those -- amidst the majority of mediocrity. I think that means he still has value for a team that is looking for upside.

Shrink I respectfully disagree. This deal is too amazing to pass up. A squad comprised of:

Rubio/Barea/Lee
Mayo/Shved
Kirilenko/Howard/Bud
Love/Cunningham
Pek/Dalembert

would have the potential to possibly do some serious playoff damage. And getting into the playoffs (without giving up a key piece) should obviously be the first goal of this seemingly cursed franchise.

[Swimmer]

I'd have to say no from this MIN fan. I'm with shrink in terms of the valuations of the players.

I guess a major deterrent is the fact that Minnesota ownership and management has never really shown an interest in OJ Mayo, and I can't say that I blame them.

[Texas Chuck]

Im pretty sure that Shrink post you guys keep referring to doesnt represent his feelings on this from a Minny perspective but his take on it from a Dallas perspective. Maybe Im reading it wrong but I dont think when he says Dallas wins or Dallas loses in his breakdown that he automatically means the opposite for Minny.

[shrink]

Im pretty sure that Shrink post you guys keep referring to doesnt represent his feelings on this from a Minny perspective but his take on it from a Dallas perspective. Maybe Im reading it wrong but I dont think when he says Dallas wins or Dallas loses in his breakdown that he automatically means the opposite for Minny.

That's astute. Each team has it's own needs, and it's own goals, so it will value players slightly differently. For DAL, I'm saying they may do the deal because they don't care as much about production this year, but get pieces that would have more value to them next year than cap space. MIN, who's more win-now, may put more value into what Mayo and Dalembert/Kaman can do right now.

Overall, if you asked me who could get more value with their pieces from other teams, I think I'd lean towards MIN. However, even if I'm right, MIN may want the pieces, even if they have to overpay a little. As you may have noticed, I don't vote in KOTB competitions because to me, the question changes. Do I answer "MIN says yes" even if I think MIN should say no? And does that mean a trade is a failure? I don't know.

I can say that if I ran the Wolves, I'm with swimmer -- I wouldn't make this trade for Mayo. The wolves have 6 of their top 8 players out, and they are still 5-4, because of one thing .. chemistry .. and I don't think Mayo would fall into a team-first concept. However, just because I wouldn't do it doesn't mean Kahn wouldn't do it. And moreover, if Mayo and the centers continue to do well, they may be able to convince me by the trade deadline. I like this trade better than 90% I read - maybe better if Mayo was spun elsewhere.

[Texas Chuck]

well I feel like Im slowly learning more about what Minny fans are looking for. I had originally posted a 3 team deal that had Minny giving up Ridnour/Williams and getting back Kevin Martin. I heard from a couple Wolves fans that they would be more interested in Mayo(who went to OKC in the deal) than Martin but also that they were looking for a bigger defensive minded 2. I know ideally that would be one guy but I included Dahntay to be more than just an expiring here because he would have a real role against teams with good wing scorers especially in a playoff series.

I appreciate all the feedback from everyone and telling me why my idea is flawed instead of just saying you dont like it.

[JayMKE]

eh I'd probably do it as a Bucks fan but it's not a significant enough upgrade to add any other assets

[Narf]

I want a bit more for Minny.
Mayo on an expiring contract is scary to me, someone might pay him big money. If you think adding Mayo gives the Wolves a legit shot at the WCF, maybe. But otherwise its selling young talent on a 1 year rental to possibly get to the 2nd round of the playoffs. I think I keep Williams or trade him for another young talent on a rookie contract when Love comes back healthy.

If the Wolves look like they can contend, though, I pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

[AussieBuck]

The Bucks need to get rid of Dalembert so that we can play our younger better players all the time. Kaman would only make that situation worse.