ImageImageImageImageImage

GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm

Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart

hands11
Banned User
Posts: 31,171
And1: 2,444
Joined: May 16, 2005

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#321 » by hands11 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:56 am

The Consiglieri wrote:
dandridge 10 wrote:I think its way, way too early to call Beal a bust. However, I don't think its too early to express some concern. Beal came out of high school billed as a elite shooter. However, through his first year in college and the beginning of his pro career he has been anything but. Moreover, he hasn't shown that killer instinct that you would have from a potential star player. Last night was a perfect example. When Mullens switched on him last night in double overtime, Beal's eyes shot have lit up and he should have went right at him. Instead, you could tell he just wanted to get rid of the ball.

Again, Beal is very, very young, and he certaintly has plenty of time to turn it around. He certainly seems coachable, has good instincts, shooting mechanics, etc so I am not going to write him off. However, I think its not too early to express concern on whether he has that "it" factor.

And, while I think Beal will turn out to at least be a good player, the thing that concerns me the most is that there is certainly a chance that our 1st, 3rd, and 6th picks in the last couple of drafts don't amount to anything more. When you have that many low picks, you have to at least get one all-star and at least one borderline all-star to truly rebuild. I'm not sure one of our low picks are close to either type of player. That scares me.


i expect Wall to be at worst, a very good player, I already think he's a good one. Vesely, a busted pick in a busted draft. The sad fact is that draft was bad to begin with, and when we got completely hosed in the lottery for the umpteenth time AND refused to trade up, but got fixated on a guy with no seemingly discernible technical skills and no shot, that draft was botched. This draft considering where we were slotted, offered no players with elite potential at a position of need, only Drummond, and maybe Lillard struck me as guys with potential greatness in him (All the barnes hype is silly to me, hes in a perfect situation, and it shows, and he's a professional and always was, his problem has always been passivity and an inability to live up to his potential on the court, and he has 70 college games at an elite instititution with elite coaching where he should have been the #1 option and wasn't even the #2 to show these faults). The one miss we may regret, to me, is Drummond. If he gets it, he'll be great. And we would have easily shoved Seraphin aside for what he could be. That could hurt in time. Nobody else other than maybe Lillard, and he was a PG.


While this may not have been a HOF pick, this is was what I was thinking that year.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Nik ... evic-5828/

We sure could use a young center prospect. I think this kid is going to keep getting better.

If a trade down was possible that year they would have picked from

Markieff Morris or Nikola Vucevic or Kenneth Faried to address the front court and added
Marshon Brooks as the SG prospect.

Personally, I was leaning toward Nikola Vucevic and Brooks but clearly Faried would have been a good pick.

That would have made for a nice draft. Then even if they did go Beal this year, the roster would look a lot better.

Wall/Livingston/Price
Brooks/Crawford/Beal
Trevor A/Webster
Nene/Kevin/Booker
Nikola/Okafor

They would probably still stink this year with Wall and Nene injured, but you could have two young prospects who would already be productive that add things to the team needs. Then they could go into this draft focused on adding a SF and depth at any position. Seems they are a year behind because of the Ves, Singleton draft. Maybe both will still work out, but I would have preferred adding players who had a little more offense.
noworriesinmd
Junior
Posts: 412
And1: 69
Joined: Jan 02, 2012

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#322 » by noworriesinmd » Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:11 pm

I'm not calling Beal a bust, however I hate the talk of "let us see what he does with a real point guard".
There are things that just come naturally, for example...even without a good PG Vesely is a hustle player. He runs hard, is always moving...etc

Things I've noticed, which should not have anything to do with a point guard
1. Beal does not move a lot without the ball
2. Beal is timid and is not aggressive.
3. Beal seems to lack a high release
4. Beal is missing open shots


This has NOTHING to do with having an elite PG.

Again, I'm not saying he is a bust..
Zonkerbl
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 9,136
And1: 4,792
Joined: Mar 24, 2010
       

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#323 » by Zonkerbl » Mon Nov 26, 2012 3:54 pm

Things that worry me about Beal have nothing to do with his playmates.

When he drives to the basket he does not seem to be able to draw contact. He needs to watch some tape of John Stockton. He should be able to get to the line more than he does.

He is too passive. He needs to force the defense to react to him before passing off to someone else.

His three point shooting is pretty mediocre. But I have a feeling that will improve. Right now he is in the rookie mode of constantly thinking. Once things become more instinctual the jumpers will fall more regularly.

His defense looks great btw.
I've been taught all my life to value service to the weak and powerless.
User avatar
Nivek
Head Coach
Posts: 7,406
And1: 959
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Contact:
         

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#324 » by Nivek » Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:14 pm

Everything "wrong" with Beal is related to his low FG%.

Average SG gets 3.1 FTA per 40 minutes. Beal shoots 4.4.

He gets half a rebound more than average for a SG per 40 minutes.

His per minute assists are right at league average for a SG. Same for his steals (well, he's 0.2 below average in steals).

He commits 0.4 turnovers more than average for a SG per 40 minutes. He gets half a block more per 40. He fouls less often than the average SG.

He shoots more often than the average SG (15.0 FGA per 40 minutes for Beal vs. 13.8 per 40 for the average SG).

Dial in the panic. Literally, everything "wrong" with him relates to his poor shooting percentage from the floor -- more specifically, his poor percentage from 2pt range. For all the fretting about his 3pt shooting, he's made a third of them, which isn't bad. Wild guess, but he's going to start shooting better from 2pt range.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
User avatar
Illuminaire
Veteran
Posts: 2,970
And1: 606
Joined: Jan 04, 2010
 

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#325 » by Illuminaire » Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:23 pm

Huh. So what you're saying is, our 19-year old rookie who looks terrible and overwhelmed is already playing at league average levels in most major categories? That despite appearances, he's displaying a decent all-around game that is surprisingly productive for a young player in a bad situation?

Pfft. That's crazy talk! Get your numbers and rationality out of my embittered disillusionment!
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 17,060
And1: 4,190
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#326 » by dobrojim » Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:41 pm

dangermouse wrote:
AFM wrote:Not necessarily true... check this out
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... oga01.html

He's 19, man. I think thats when I lost my virginity.
Kidd Gilchrist is averaging 11 and 6. Is he a bust too?


So what you're saying is we need to get Beal some pussy?


LMAO

I doubt that's a problem even though he can't go clubbing. Ever since the
Magic Johnson aids story (and Wilt's bio) ripped what should never had been
much of a secret, we know sex is one thing NBA players (not to mention other
highly paid pro athletes) have available to them in abundance.

More likely he's blissed out and passive as a result if we really want to go there...
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,723
And1: 23,220
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#327 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:49 pm

Nivek wrote:Everything "wrong" with Beal is related to his low FG%.

Average SG gets 3.1 FTA per 40 minutes. Beal shoots 4.4.

He gets half a rebound more than average for a SG per 40 minutes.

His per minute assists are right at league average for a SG. Same for his steals (well, he's 0.2 below average in steals).

He commits 0.4 turnovers more than average for a SG per 40 minutes. He gets half a block more per 40. He fouls less often than the average SG.

He shoots more often than the average SG (15.0 FGA per 40 minutes for Beal vs. 13.8 per 40 for the average SG).

Dial in the panic. Literally, everything "wrong" with him relates to his poor shooting percentage from the floor -- more specifically, his poor percentage from 2pt range. For all the fretting about his 3pt shooting, he's made a third of them, which isn't bad. Wild guess, but he's going to start shooting better from 2pt range.

Nivek,

Do you have any sense on how much one can expect a rookie to improve in these categories? Anecdotally, my sense is that FG% and TO rate improve, and maybe assists as well, but rebounding doesn't improve and shot blocking (and maybe steals as well) tend to decline as they learn that gambling doesn't pay off.

If I'm right, Beal looks on pace to pan out to be a pretty average SG, and that's only if his FG% improves dramatically. The one encouraging sign is his slightly above-average FTA rate (though it's not all that great once you factor that he takes an above-average number of shots).
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 17,060
And1: 4,190
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#328 » by dobrojim » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:05 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
PG - Price
SG - Webster
SF - MARTIN!!!! (fixed)
PF - Nene
C - Okafor

With Beal, Singleton, Vesely, Seraphin, and Martin off the bench. I would trade Crawford for anybody's second round pick. Livingston I am sure is useful, but I would be looking to upgrade at PG--which is what will happen when Wall returns.


3 shooters and 2 bigs.

Agree that Barron needs more opportunities and those other guys would be better
suited to come off the bench.

Agree that patience is needed on Beal. We don't know that he isn't being told to
camp out in the corners. I'm guessing he is. He mostly needs to start splashing more of
those good looks that he does get.

Also the rebound Walker stole from Nene (if I'm thinking of the right play)....
how is that a foul on Nene? A guy comes flying in from outside the lane and
creates contact with the guy who caught the ball. SMH.

Singleton needs to play ahead of Ves (duh).

Ves has looked completely awful, no question. He needs Wall out there
as much as anyone on the team.

Wes needs to come in and show Kev how to set a pick so Beal can
start resembling Chenier or JMalone.

We lost mostly because we let Freaking Mullens be the most productive
player on the court. That's what 3 pt shooting can do for you as SAN and
Matt Bonner etal is likely to show us tonight.

BTW - I did NOT wear my paper bag nor did I see anyone else wearing one.
They fought hard and missed it by that much (max smart). I did have it with
me though as I will tonight in case it gets fugly which it well may.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
Severn Hoos
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,443
And1: 223
Joined: May 09, 2002

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#329 » by Severn Hoos » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:13 pm

Kind of a tangent (I guess), but as it relates to the Bobs - over 60% of their scoring Saturday night came from Mullens, Sessions, and Gordon. That's two guys who are the very definition of "NBA journeyman" and a third who was ransomed out of town because his previous team didn't want him and his contract any more.

I suppose the Wiz would have a better record right now if they had made those moves instead of the Bobs. But unless you think any of those guys is part of the long-term answer (and I certainly don't), I wouldn't be casting longing glances over at the Charlotte bench and thinking "if only..."

[Obviously, you can make that case for MKG over Beal, but beyond that, I don't think there's more reason for optimism over the long term in Charlotte than in DC.]

And lastly - maybe Singleton should be staring at PF? (As much as I'd like to say this in reference to James, I am in fact referring to Chris. Still, he may be the best overall option at PF on the roster right now. Certainly the best rebounder at that position...)
"A society that puts equality - in the sense of equality of outcome - ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom. The use of force to achieve equality will destroy freedom" Milton Friedman, Free to Choose
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 17,060
And1: 4,190
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#330 » by dobrojim » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:16 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:As to Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton looked disgusting last season. He is better this season. I still wouldn't rule out marginal improvement in the future from Jan. However, this season having Okafor new to the roster and Booker back from injury, starting; and also having Chris Singleton playing PF because of Ariza at SF, was enough to force Vesely into uncomfortable territory. Who is Vesely better than? Seraphin can score on the block. What is Jan's role?

Vesely is definitely a bust for a #6, but the guy plays with energy, moves without the ball, and does all the garbage things that help a team. His weaknesses are his horrific free throw shooting, has bad-to-non-existent perimeter game, his weakness at C, his slowness at SF, and his not having one thing he does exceedingly well. Maybe he dives, catches, and finishes fairly well.[b]

I STILL SAY Vesely is good next to Nene or Kevin, but that's not going to happen much due to this roster chaos created by EG and Ted. It was really bad to draft him at #6 and now they've pretty much sealed his fate barring some roster moves.


Ves has got a lot of development to do. He has some innate gifts. MAYBE he'll be a decent
role player by his 3rd/4th year. Maybe.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
llcc25
Senior
Posts: 532
And1: 1
Joined: Feb 13, 2002

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#331 » by llcc25 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:47 pm

My few observations that stuck out from watching game live few rows up from courtside:

1) Nene was our best player by a mile. Even with his limited mobility, he just knows how to play the game (i.e., defense, spacing, passing, attacking).

2) Vesely is awful. He shot an airball on a FT and it was so funny seeing John Wall just shake his head. How does an NBA player consistently airball a FT. He must hold the record for that. I'd be surprised if he is on an NBA roster past this year.

3) We lack players that can create their own shot and attack. Bobcats have 2 guys (Sessions and Walker) who were constantly attacking the basket and putting pressure on our D.

4) Mullens killed us from outside. He was the beneficiary of open looks due to Sessions and Walker's penetration.

5) Beal lacks the killer instinct IMO to be top flight SG in this league. One play end of game in OT summed it up where we could've taken the lead. He was one on one with Mullens guarding him on the outside. Rather than attack the basket he timidly dribbles left and right and passes off to Nene. I can't see Kobe, Wade or let alone Waiters doing that if they were one on one against a center in that scenario.
queridiculo
RealGM
Posts: 17,938
And1: 9,319
Joined: Mar 29, 2005
Location: So long Wizturdz.
   

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#332 » by queridiculo » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:50 pm

Severn, I wouldn't necessarily categorize a 4 year player as a journeyman. He strikes me as project whose producing at a pretty respectable clip, after showing some promise the previous year.

With respect to Gordon and Sessions I guess I see your point, but would I rather have Gordon and Sessions than Ariza and Okafor?

****.
queridiculo
RealGM
Posts: 17,938
And1: 9,319
Joined: Mar 29, 2005
Location: So long Wizturdz.
   

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#333 » by queridiculo » Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:57 pm

dobrojim wrote:
Ves has got a lot of development to do. He has some innate gifts. MAYBE he'll be a decent
role player by his 3rd/4th year. Maybe.


Quite the endorsement... It's just like Washington to wait 5 years for a lottery pick to turn into a role player, when they could have signed D-leaguers for that purpose instead.

James Singleton would have been a better pro given the opportunity.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,723
And1: 23,220
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#334 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:17 pm

queridiculo wrote:
dobrojim wrote:
Ves has got a lot of development to do. He has some innate gifts. MAYBE he'll be a decent
role player by his 3rd/4th year. Maybe.


Quite the endorsement... It's just like Washington to wait 5 years for a lottery pick to turn into a role player, when they could have signed D-leaguers for that purpose instead.

James Singleton would have been a better pro given the opportunity.

Exactly.

This is the problem with the Wizards. They wait out an entire rookie contract just to groom a role player.
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 17,060
And1: 4,190
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#335 » by dobrojim » Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:21 pm

the complete list of EG's drafts is a major indictment. It's one thing
to miss a player here or there that many other teams also miss.
It's quite another to miss with the kind of regularity that EG has.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
MDStar
Senior
Posts: 571
And1: 120
Joined: Oct 22, 2003
Location: Washington, DC

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#336 » by MDStar » Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:22 pm

Dang Nate. I've been reading this board for years and I've never seen you even remotely close to the way you are now.
Just let the young boys play! It's truly the only hope at this point.
dobrojim
RealGM
Posts: 17,060
And1: 4,190
Joined: Sep 16, 2004

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#337 » by dobrojim » Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:33 pm

post election depression?

(dime store psych)
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
User avatar
Nivek
Head Coach
Posts: 7,406
And1: 959
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
Contact:
         

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#338 » by Nivek » Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:54 pm

nate33 wrote:
Do you have any sense on how much one can expect a rookie to improve in these categories? Anecdotally, my sense is that FG% and TO rate improve, and maybe assists as well, but rebounding doesn't improve and shot blocking (and maybe steals as well) tend to decline as they learn that gambling doesn't pay off.

If I'm right, Beal looks on pace to pan out to be a pretty average SG, and that's only if his FG% improves dramatically. The one encouraging sign is his slightly above-average FTA rate (though it's not all that great once you factor that he takes an above-average number of shots).


I haven't studied the issue myself. Others have taken looks, but usually in terms of overall production, not category by category. My recollection (being on the road and away from my links) is that teens in the NBA on produce on average about 60-65% of what they'll produce at their peak. Those studies are looking at full-season data, of course.

Beal is at 310 career minutes. When I'm analyzing a full season, I exclude everyone with fewer than 500 total minutes. The sample size is still so tiny that if Beal made one additional two-point shot per game, he'd be shooting 49% from 2pt range instead of 32%.

My feeling is that Beal's numbers will improve across the board. I want to study the issue in greater depth when I have time. But, I still think it's waaaaaaaaaaay to early to be worried about him.
"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

Check out my blog about the Wizards, movies, writing, music, TV, sports, and whatever else comes to mind.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 70,723
And1: 23,220
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#339 » by nate33 » Mon Nov 26, 2012 7:14 pm

MDStar wrote:Dang Nate. I've been reading this board for years and I've never seen you even remotely close to the way you are now.

Yeah. I've finally taken off the homer glasses and I'm seeing things more clearly now. I guess I sound a lot more like Dat2U. And Dat2U has been consistently right.

I'll cede that I may be jumping the gun on Beal. 11 games out of a 19-year-old is hardly a fair sample size. That said, I'm not really judging Beal on his numbers, but more on what I see out there. I just don't see any stand-out skills. He doesn't blow me away in any category at all. He's just... average; average with poor shooting. Shooting is probably the worst thing to judge with a poor sample size so I'll stay open minded on that front. If he turns out to be average across the board AND shows an elite shooting stroke, then he'll be Ray Allen and I'll be happy. But if is average across the board with merely an average shooting stroke, then there's nothing whatsoever to be excited about.
Dat2U
RealGM
Posts: 24,220
And1: 8,048
Joined: Jun 23, 2001
Location: Columbus, OH
       

Re: GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm 

Post#340 » by Dat2U » Mon Nov 26, 2012 7:20 pm

I think Beal will be fine. I'm 100% comfortable saying he's not going to be a bust. However I've always had questions about how good Beal really will be in time. Solid? Yes. Above average starter at his position? In time, yes. All-star? I just don't see an all-star caliber player unless the hype about his jumper is eventually justified.

That's why I really was favoring MKG. I felt much stronger about what he could bring to the table. His strengths were clearly defined IMO. He's going to be the best SF outside of Durant, LeBron and maybe Melo (and LeBron & Melo are playing the 4 extensively now) in a year or two. After his pick on draft night, I suggested if I had any inclination Charlotte would have taken MKG, I would given up a lot to move into their slot and grab him.

Return to Washington Wizards