2013 dodgers lineup projection

[Neddy]

I'm sure everyone will have their own take on this, and i would love to discuss pros and cons of each move. please voice your opinions on this topic.

here is my projected lineup, and(wishful?) stats with roster as is. i did not project OBP, SLG, OPS or OPS+ even though i prefer those stats over conventional stats, for the convenience

1. L. LF. Carl Crawford .290 10 40
2. R. 2B. Mark Ellis .260 5
3. R. CF. Matt Kemp .320 35 20
4. L. RF. Andre Ethier .290 20
5. L. 1B. Adrian Gonzalez .300 25
6. R. SS Hanley Ramirez .270 25 20
7. R. 3B. Luis Cruz .275 10
8. R. C. A.J. Ellis .270 10

of course, this lineup is still not the most ideal, because

first, carl crawford has traditionally fit much better as #2, seeing more fastballs in front of the meat of the order. carl also rarely hits into double play, which is a big asset batting second, at least far better than andre as ethier is nearly twice more likely to GIDP according to baseball-reference.com. never the less, mark ellis and his supreme bat control is needed as #2 guy, and his 2 digit OPS numbers and so-so OBP and no threat on bases makes him even lesser desirable as a leadoff, pushing carl to be our leadoff.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=11,a

secondly, ethier's inability to hit leftys can be somewhat hidden if we move him ahead of guys who can hit leftys. the trick to fool the opposition is to have another lefty follow him so the opposite manager would leave the lefty in the game after ethier, and that is gonzo who's lefty-righty split is perfectly even. when hitting against right handed starters or reliefs(doubt ethier will see much of right handed relief) ethier will crush the ball at better than .900 OPS rate, which should translate into lots of games with early runs on the scoreboard.
adrian's sudden drop of bat speed should also be in consideration in dropping his batting order to 5th. i do understand that this idea will not be popular at all.

thirdly, the above two reasons will drop hanley to 6th, which i like because he brings high SLG and decent BA for a SS although i prefer to see him switch over to 3B and move luis cruz to SS, i just don't see the dodgers make that move to improve the middle infield glove. anyhow, he is streaky and his OBP does suffer to be an ideal batter in 3-4-5 spots imo.

lastly, i would like to see what AJ can do batting 7th and still be able to retain similar OBP as he did last year batting 8th, but i hate to see a free swinger such as cruz bat ahead of a pitcher and make last out too many times to have a pitcher start off the following inning.

overall, this lineup still leaves a few areas unfulfilled, such as better OBP in top two spots, another lefty bat to balance out the bottom half of the order, or another righty power bat to split some existing leftys to be pushed down the lineup. however, i am pretty optimistic that this lineup should be able to put up some runs to give our re-tooling rotation a chance to win every game.

all stats evaluated from baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com

[TyCobb]

Ya'll are about to cash in from Fox Sports. I'll post mine soon.

[Neddy]

i prefer that we don't. let nov 30th exclusive deal deadline pass and we can deal with anyone. 6-7 billion is great but i think it is worth more. get time warner to bid against fox and i can see us netting up to 9 b.

back to the lineup tho, if we do sign a FA bat, i hope it's not josh hamilton for a long term deal. his stats indicate a very strictly player who dominates conventional stats but not as impressive when further analyzed. yes his HRs are sexy, he does have 10% higher ERA+ and .100 higher OPS, but not enough of a difference to commit anything more than 3 years deal for a guy with substance abuse history, who tends to get cold for a very long stretch who struck out 162 times last year.

and oh BTW, ethier has a slight edge over josh at WAR, which in the end, is the only stat that really counts for your team winning more games.

[Quake Griffin]

i want Mark on the back half of the lineup.

Luis should hit 2nd in this lineup imo.

[Neddy]

well the small issue i have with cruz hitting 2nd is that his OBP relative to his BA isn't good, and practically never takes a walk. in other words, his doesn't get on base unless he makes a hit.

but on the other hand, neither is crawford in last couple of seasons. carl isn't an ideal leadoff either, or bat 2nd from that pov.

mark gets on base at a better rate relative to his BA, and his bat control and plate discipline is good enough to be an asset as #2, although in his case, he doesn't hit well enough to maximize his OBP and doesn't steal bases to be a threat or induce fastballs for kemp or gonzo when he does get on.

truthfully, we don't really have any ideal 1-2 guys on our roster, but we can formulate a lineup according to your liking and we can come out with something like

1 L crawford
2 R cruz
3 R kemp
4 L gonzo
5 R hanley
6 L ethier
7 R mark
8 R AJ

with this lineup, i flipped ethier down and pushed the other 2 up, and mark is hitting 7th. the reason for this rather than taking him all the way down to 8th spot is that AJ as a right handed hitter, hits more like a lefty and cannot hit a lefthanded pitching at all, a lot like ethier. having ethier and AJ back to back will make it easier for the other team to keep a lefty specialist in latter part of the game and make 2 easy outs, then have mark and a pitcher spot come up next inning to make another easy killing.

if we were to sign michael bourne as we were discussing elsewhere, things get much easier to set up a linup.

if we were to sign kevin youkilis, his OBP allows us to move him to #2 spot, or utilize his power and have him bat behind our core guys. but his 235 BA is atrocious, and his OPS is not any better than luis.


here is an interesting idea. according to bill james, the father of advanced metrics, lineups doesn't really matter in a large sample of games. regardless of how lineups are formulated, teams with enough players with better WAR (wins above replacements) will produce exactly what they are supposed to and the team as a whole, in a long season will create same number of runs independent from their batting order.

do i absolutely believe this to be true? well that's debatable.

[Kilroy]

Lineups eventually meet the law of averages and even any benefit out. I believe that... But I think there's a psychological aspect to a given player batting at a given point in the lineup.
Consistent hitting is a pretty fragile thing, so any little advantage helps...

I'm not sure what it's going to look like to start the season... This team is such an unknown right now with the ownership situation finally settled, it's hard to get a feel for what will happen.

I see us going big though... How successful we'll be with the money's no object mindset we seem to have remains to be seen.

[Neddy]

hypothetically yes, but pushing a cleanup guy to the 8th over 162 games would result in cutting his PA by 100 or so. that is alot of HRs that your team is missing.

but when bill james ran computer simulations of every random lineup possible on computer for 100 seasons, his result was consistent every time with same W^2/L^2 = Ws/Ls so maybe it is true.

[haterade]

What do you think about this?

1 - Carl Crawford
2 - Hanley Ramirez
3 - Matt Kemp
4 - Adrian Gonzalez
5 - Andre Ethier
6 - Mark Ellis
7 - Luis Cruz
8 - A.J. Ellis

I think this puts more preassure on the opposing pitching especially at the top of the lineup.

[Neddy]

What do you think about this?

1 - Carl Crawford
2 - Hanley Ramirez
3 - Matt Kemp
4 - Adrian Gonzalez
5 - Andre Ethier
6 - Mark Ellis
7 - Luis Cruz
8 - A.J. Ellis

I think this puts more preassure on the opposing pitching especially at the top of the lineup.

i like it to a certain degree, that it is extremely fearsome lineup 1 through 5 on paper. i do have some reservations due to mark's inability to hit the long ball or hit for average will force either to be pitched around with a righty and a complete shut out against a lefty without a protection. but if an inning comes to an end with ethier, mark-luis-AJ is a poorman's top of the order to create some opportunities.

i also think that lineup will benefit carl the most, as he needs a powerbat to protect him to be efficient, and having 2-3 hitters to leadoff, better chance we have to score runs when bottom of the order gets on scoring position in latter innings.

as bad as i think our lineup is in terms of truly defined role guys, we have so much flexibility in terms of where they can hit is great to ponder around especially during these boring offseasons.

[Quake Griffin]

i want to sign AJ Pierzynski.

sorry AJ
but I want AJ.

nutsy, gamer.
clutch.

i want

[Neddy]

AJ Pierzynski's OPS .872, OPS+118 last year, but the last time he had an above 100 OPS+ before the last season was 9 years ago.

AJ Ellis' OPS+ last year was 118, identical to the other AJ. and he has done it in back to back years and younger.

i personally see no benefit of the other AJ.

[Quake Griffin]

AJ Pierzynski's OPS .872, OPS+118 last year, but the last time he had an above 100 OPS+ before the last season was 9 years ago.

AJ Ellis' OPS+ last year was 118, identical to the other AJ. and he has done it in back to back years and younger.

i personally see no benefit of the other AJ.

who do you want in the foxhole man?

who do u want in the foxhole with u?
Ellis or Pierzynski?

just giving me the choice...no stats involved...AJ.
clutch as fuuu too

[Neddy]

it's easy to fall for AJP's HR numbers and think he is an offensive juggernaut, but he isn't. his OBP is barely .300 and again he spent the 9 years prior to last season hitting below average.

if you want tangibles, it's no contest. our AJ played through injuries without ever complaining once to the media or the FO while holding our mediocre rotation outside of clayton to the 3rd best for the season, the other AJ is MLB's one of the most hated players in the history of baseball.

AJ Ellis all the way for me.

besides, if you were literally in a foxhole with AJP, he may shoot you in the back and use your lifeless body as his shield.

[Quake Griffin]

Pierzynski is Matt Barnes...but more impactful.

u hate the guy when he's not on ur team but love him if he's on yours.
mlb trade rumors...cant remember the writer said the chances of it happening are slim.
odd as it may seem....I see Pierzynski as fearless...the type of dude i wanna take to a weekend series in SF...i see AJ Ellis as lucky, a product of batting 8th for our team all year and being just serviceable.

but he fits in...so i don't mind


however, i really feel if this team/ ownership is about being a somebody....really about being a contender....we'll be on the phone with these Rangers trying to bring in Elvis Andrus.

how many problems would trading for Elvy Andrus solve?...i can count like 17 off the top of my head
he'd transition fine from the 2 hole to lead off.

andrus
crawf
kemp
a-gon
hanley
andre (if we didn't deal him for andrus)
mark
AJ

Sweet Jesus if that team doesn't win a WS

[Neddy]

now that our rotation seems to be set, it is time to take another look at our lineup.

despite what any of us consider the most efficient lineup to be, from everything i read the dodger brass seems to project our lineup to be

R mark ellis
L carl crawford
R matt kemp
L adrian gonzalez
R hanley ramirez
L andre ethier
R luis cruz
R AJ ellis.

the obvious holes are #1 and #7. with this line up, the only hitter with below average OPS+ is mark ellis, and it is hard to count on a half a season of stardom of a perennial minor leaguer luis cruz. i love mark's bat control as i have posted numerously and cautiously optimistic on cruz but would not hesitate to make a move if better options surface.

one option out there on FA market is kevin youkilis. but conflicting reports are out there whether we are even interested in him. as i have expressed prior, his OPS+ production and WS numbers are not superior to luis cruz, but we can count on kevin to be consistent in his production, even if it's one that is in decline.

another option out there, and the one i like is, a trade with indians for asdrubal cabrera from the indians. the Dirtbags are in serious talks with indians and it would be a great way to defuse our division rival's attempt at improving, and also a great option to upgrade the defense at SS as well as adding a switch hitter at the top of our lineup. he is more of a #2 hitter than a leadoff, but he is an option that is an upgrade over mark ellis. if crawford is willing to hit first, carbrera is an ideal #2 hitter as well.

there is a chance that we are looking at robinson cano @2B after next season and we are gonna let mark's contract run its course, but that doesn't help us this season and neither of the options i proposed fixes our offensive production at 2B. one alternative option would be, to trade for asdrubal and move him to 2nd, and sign kevin to play 3rd. hanley at SS everyday makes me very nervous, but our offense can overcome plenty of his defensive shortcomings. if this was the case, our lineup can look like

L carl crawford
S asdrubal cabrera
R matt kemp
L adrian gonzalez
R hanley ramirez
L andre ethier
R kevin youkilis
R Aj ellis

that lineup, along with our rotation will be a total destruction for our opposing teams and can win 100 games next season.

[Quake Griffin]

Dee Gordon pisses me off so bad.

how could you blow it this bad?
we're stuck without a leadoff hitter and the organization has seemingly turned the page on this guy....so much that we're banking on Hanley to improve on being an SS (which is fine, he'll just never be great)

screw you Dee.
Mark is a nutsy kinda guy...he'll make due....but this problem will have to be addressed before the year is out.

[Quake Griffin]

liking the schumaker deal.

familiar with mark mcgwire....2b and do all the outfield positions.

[Neddy]

if gordon's OBP was around .330, his speed on base would make him a fearsome leadoff hitter regardless of his BA, but unfortunately that isn't the case for him.

i am sort of 'meh' on skip deal. he is a lefty utility player that will balance out our bench, but his infield defense isn't anything to brag about. he can, however play center field well enough to give matt some breather and can make contact against the right handed pitching. i hope we don't see a complete platoon at the second base with mark ellis as mark is a much, much better defender.

the upside of this deal is, we now have hairston/punto/schumaker to fill in any position other than pitching and catching to provide lots of flexibility. R-S-L as well respectably to make pinch hitting situation a bit more troublesome to the other team as well.

[Neddy]

what about this idea? it kills speed on base but maybe the best way to revive ethier and his power bat into our lineup

1. R mark ellis - we all know he will leadoff as carl has been inked in at #2 by donny
2. L carl crawford
3. L adrian gonzalez - with his bat troubles last year, i want him to see more fastballs and have a real protection
4. R matt kemp - loses protection of adrian but now gives.
5. L andre ethier - better protection for our cleanup against righty than hanley
6. R hanley ramirez - when against lefty, our 5-6 guys will switch
7. R luis cruz - hope for the best......... he can't get on base unless he hits and his BABIP last year screams luck
8. R AJ ellis - he is practically a left handed hitter. just look at his L-R split.

i feel that gonzo's even split between RHP and LHP gives us a guy who won't give up going L-L at 2-3 spot while giving us a chance to see what kemp-ethier-hanley can do together with plenty of protection for ethier there in between. i have felt all season that we plugged hanley in as 5th because he was a right handed player that fits the scheme, but didn't have what it took to be that player. ethier did, but we didn't want back to back Ls. now this line up will provide that chance.