James Harden is a superstar

fallacy · Post #841 » by **fallacy** » Tue Dec 4, 2012 5:05 pm

Krodis wrote:1. Sample size. Plus minus stats are near useless at this small of a sample size. Too much noise
2. He's using raw plus-minus. Heavily dependent on both teammates and opponents.

1. If we can't use stats due to sample size this entire thread is irrelevant and needs to be locked
2. I didn't know offensive rating, assist percentage, defensive rating, and effective field goal percentage were raw plus/minus

Maybe I should rephrase my previous comment to make you feel better, "James Harden this season, which is a small sample size to this point, has made his team worse when he's on the court when factoring in advanced plus/minus statistics."

Krodis · Post #842 » by **Krodis** » Tue Dec 4, 2012 5:27 pm

The implication you're still drawing is "has made his team worse when he's on the court", which is a flawed conclusion to come to. The fact that the team is worse when he's on the court doesn't mean he's responsible. One possible explanation, for example, is that he plays a lot of his minutes with Lin and Patterson who have even worse +/- numbers.

fallacy · Post #843 » by **fallacy** » Tue Dec 4, 2012 5:39 pm

Krodis wrote:The implication you're still drawing is "has made his team worse when he's on the court", which is a flawed conclusion to come to. The fact that the team is worse when he's on the court doesn't mean he's responsible. One possible explanation, for example, is that he plays a lot of his minutes with Lin and Patterson who have even worse +/- numbers.

I'm not bothering with explanations, I don't watch the Rockets to have enough knowledge of that team to determine why the Rockets are better with him on the bench. All I can tell is that the Rockets as a team perform worse when Harden is on the floor.

I don't know about blaming Patterson for it, when the Rockets played us Patterson was by far the rockets best player. He's also putting up 15 and 5 on .560 ts% and 16.7 PER. But I can get behind blaming Lin, i'm a huge Lin hater.

Rapcity_11 · Post #844 » by **Rapcity_11** » Tue Dec 4, 2012 5:43 pm

Hey fallacy, using your context-less look at on/off numbers, Durant was at +1.9 last year and -0.6 the year before. So he made his team worse in 10-11 right?

fallacy · Post #845 » by **fallacy** » Tue Dec 4, 2012 5:45 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:Hey fallacy, using your context-less look at on/off numbers, Durant was at +1.9 last year and -0.6 the year before. So he made his team worse in 10-11 right?

Probably, he was a terrible defender back then and they had Harden/Collison when he sat on the bench.

Post #846 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Dec 4, 2012 6:07 pm

Raw +/- has no value.

As to eFG% and such, it's relevant to consider that Harden is playing 38.8 mpg.

That means the sample of him off the floor, the total sample, is basically 4 games and is meaningless given the differences in how the team works and who they're facing.

Literally a single 2-minute stretch could skew things, let alone the BRUTAL shooting slump the starters had to open the season...

fallacy · Post #847 » by **fallacy** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 3:10 am

This Rockets/Lakers game isn't over yet, but it looks like the league is learning how to defend Harden on the rockets

Krodis · Post #848 » by **Krodis** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 3:47 am

Terrible shooting game from Harden, but some nice playmaking at the end and he almost never fails to get to the line. The rest of the starters weren't exactly helping, so it's really no surprise it was Harden + the bench that took over at the end.

And jeeze, the Rockets missed 63 shots and won in regulation. Getting 101 shots certainly doesn't hurt.

DreDay · Post #849 » by **DreDay** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 7:02 am

Harden has the potential to be by far the worst contract in the league. It's like paying Monta Ellis 5/80. Outside of two games Harden has really been pedestrian so far and nothing worth max money.

fallacy · Post #850 » by **fallacy** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 7:41 am

oaklandwarriors wrote:Harden has the potential to be by far the worst contract in the league. It's like paying Monta Ellis 5/80. Outside of two games Harden has really been pedestrian so far and nothing worth max money.

I wouldn't go that far. Harden currently hasn't been worth a max contract but he's far from the worst contract in the league.

DreDay · Post #851 » by **DreDay** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 8:22 am

That's why I said potential. He's not there yet but could be in 2-3 years. Right now he's not worth the max, but if he continues to play like this (nothing suggests anything different) it will be heavily debated in the future.

Geaux_Hawks · Post #852 » by **Geaux_Hawks** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 10:06 am

oaklandwarriors wrote:Harden has the potential to be by far the worst contract in the league. It's like paying Monta Ellis 5/80. Outside of two games Harden has really been pedestrian so far and nothing worth max money.

Post like this keep me sane. It's grade A comedy. Ellis is no where near the shooter, play maker, nor has the IQ of Harden. I would also go on to say isn't a better defender either.

Harden is shooting 43%, but has a 57 ts%. He's averaging about 9 FTA a game, and taking about 17 shots a game as the #1 and only guy, unlike Ellis, who will find a way to shoot 17+ shots even with other viable options on the team. He basically has no help offensively to relieve him of defensive pressure. Lin was thought to be that, but he is no where close. Parsons is a decent option, but he's no #2 guy, and neither is PP, who isn't better than Parsons.

Harden is no where near the worst contract in the league.

CKRT · Post #853 » by **CKRT** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 11:45 am

Krodis wrote:Terrible shooting game from Harden, but some nice playmaking at the end and he almost never fails to get to the line. The rest of the starters weren't exactly helping, so it's really no surprise it was Harden + the bench that took over at the end.

And jeeze, the Rockets missed 63 shots and won in regulation. Getting 101 shots certainly doesn't hurt.

Rockets gained a few possessions from Hack-A-Dwight. How many do they normally average? Like ~96?

BmanInBigD · Post #854 » by **BmanInBigD** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 3:12 pm

BmanInBigD wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
BmanInBigD wrote:Yeah well the chart shows that the only guys on there that are "superstars" were scoring a lot more than 15 points and did it for the whole season, and mostly multiple seasons, not 49 games in one season. You're gonna call me dumb when you're trying to prove Harden is a superstar cuz he is on some list near Cornbread Freakin' Maxwell and Chocolate Thunder? Fail

Like I said, let's see him do this with 22-25 points as first option then we can talk. He is not a superstar.

This is your original post:

Easy to shoot a high percentage when you can pick your spots to shoot and are not having defenses game-plan for you.

Which was proven to be completely untrue with %'s as high as Harden.

So yeah, your post was dumb.

Well how hard could it be if Cornbread did it three different seasons? He was what, fourth or fifth best player on that team? Point is, most good players eventually are gonna have to shoot more, especially if anyone is gonna call them a star, let alone a "superstar". And their efficiency in all likelihood will go down. If he wants to stay at Cornbread's level, fine, he'll be efficient and valuable and all. But good freakin grief, get off his jock already. This is really getting stupid with you people trying to make him out to be the next coming...

Still LOL at the title of this thread almost one year later.

The Infamous1 · Post #855 » by **The Infamous1** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 4:48 pm

It's crazy how great Kmart's efficiency is now(65% TS). That's what happens when you get to pick your spots more, face bench scrubs, and have Westbrook and Durant taking away all the defensive attention.

Efficiency is important but you have to put it into proper context. People don't do this though that's were you get the overrating of James harden

Wall34 · Post #856 » by **Wall34** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 4:56 pm

I've been lurking this place for a while and this thread still get's me going lol. Harden is incredible as a 2nd/3rd option i don't think he got enough touches last year on OKC so i don't blame him for going somewhere else but i never thought he was a potential superstar...It's crazy how last year a few people thought Harden was OKC's best player

ahonui06 · Post #857 » by **ahonui06** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 9:10 pm

It's pretty clear through a quarter of the season that Harden just isn't first option material. He needs a true first option in front of him to take away pressure from him offensively.

USA · Post #858 » by **USA** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 9:39 pm

bastillon wrote: James Harden is a superstar. he doesn't have flashy raw numbers, but he doesn't have a flaw in his game.

CBA · Post #859 » by **CBA** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 10:49 pm

Do the trolls come out every time Harden has a bad shooting game?

CKRT · Post #860 » by **CKRT** » Wed Dec 5, 2012 10:54 pm

ahonui06 wrote:It's pretty clear through a quarter of the season that Harden just isn't first option material. He needs a true first option in front of him to take away pressure from him offensively.

Not really. As been said about a million times, the Rocket are ass outside of Harden offensively. Let's see what Morey does to build an offense around Harden.