Jeremy Lin - An interesting case

[Daggy]

Hope this thread can be the official Lin thread of this forum.

I'm a Lin fan because of the kind of person he is and the flashes of potential he has shown, but I can see quite a few flaws in the guy's game.

I'm writing this on the date after his semi break out game vs. Spurs in a Houston uniform, let's see whether my unprofessional psycho analysis of the guy can stand up to the test of time.

Jeremy Lin is a very unique player. I think it's really important to keep that in mind. We can compare him with other NBA players, but his background, his path to the NBA, his personality, his skill sets dictate he's going to be an "one of a kind player" for quite a while, thus making him a pretty frustrating player to follow as well, because he's not "one of a kind special talent", he's just ... different from everyone else.

There's no doubt in my mind that his ceiling is high barring injuries (I won't mention injury again because frankly that's out of anyone's control). On any given night he can score 25 and dish out 5+ with 5 rebounds, that puts you into the elite guard category no matter how you look at it. However, on any night he can do that only if he's the Alpha on the floor.

This is not to say he's selfish, FAR FROM IT, this guy is one of the most selfless team player in the league and he really, really, really wants to be seen in that way. And that, my friends, is the single biggest snag in his personality that's going to give endless frustration to his followers.

We all know how he has developed that kind of personality, traditional Asian family, really devote Christian value system (during one of the interviews he said his preacher gave him a scolding after he became Linsanity because the old guy was worried that he'd become too full of himself... and Lin took it and thought it was a good thing), and most importantly, throughout his life everyone has told him he's not an elite talent.

Let's not underestimate this last point. Even though he was the top player on his team in his college days, but since he was in Harvard everyone simply didn't take his record that seriously. Later on the long discouraging road through the NBA D league & benches have reinforced that notion. I think deep down Lin himself has bought into that garbage. He knows he can play, but he's constantly doubting himself on how aggressively he should play. He's afraid of acting like an elite player because he thinks he's never going to be good enough on that level and people will really crap on him for thinking too highly of himself.

He simply doesn't want to be MJ, I think he wants to be Pippen or whichever important supporting guy on a good team. He wants people to say he's a selfless player more than he wants people to regard him as an elite scorer.

But that's unfortunately not who he is.

By fortune or misfortune depending on your perspective, he's developed a skill set through high school & college to be the Alpha on the team. We've all seen it, when all hopes were lost and everyone else was just a dis-spirited scrub like the Knicks team from last year, Lin could literally carry the team by himself. If they weren't playing the amazing Spurs last night, anyone have doubts Lin would win that game for the Rockets? Lin's skill set dictates he's a hybrid scoring guard. He truly shines when he knows he is the top option and his job is to make sure the team scores enough points, be it through scoring or passing, but he needs to be the one making those decisions, not someone else.

Again this is not to say he's selfish, he simply has grown used to be that option in his younger days, he can and will find ways to put the ball in the basket when he doesn't have to think, when he can just play and let nature take over.

Lin is like the hulk in a way, his natural instinct is really high as a ball player, but the demands and expectations of the world around him keeps his inner beast caged.

So now we have a problem. His strength doesn't fit his personality and his strength really gives a coach headaches. You can ask him to "play within the system", and we all know he wants to. You can ask him to be a complimentary player to the Alpha on this team which is Harden and you know Lin will make every effort to be that complimentary player, but by making such an unnatural effort Lin totally gets lost. When he brings the ball down the court instead of studying the defense he's looking for Harden to pass off the ball, when he cuts into the lane instead of thinking about how to score he's thinking about how to involve as many guys as possible, he has all those annoying 1-2 seconds hesitations because he's trying to think in the middle of the action and it totally messes his rhythm up.

He's constantly fighting against his nature and everyone knows that's a fight you don't want to have.

Now you can say, well, let him be the Alpha or let him handle the ball more. But it's just not that simple. Let's face it, we live in a competitive real world. Even though I think he can be really good, right now he's not as good a player as Harden and Harden finally getting out of the bench role from OKC is trying to prove himself. To co-exist with Harden is not a matter of choice, but a matter of necessity. To let Lin go to the bench is a also a really silly suggestion because frankly you are trying to develop both Harden & Lin, this is not Ginobli already being completely set as a player then got asked to take on a different role in a championship team by a championship coach due to age & injury concerns. To move Lin to the bench essentially is to give up on trying to build this team together before it got started.

Is it completely hopeless then for Lin?

Speaking for me... I don't think so. The number one thing us fans lack but really will gain a bit with age is patience. Who before the season really thought this team was going to be a championship team this year??? Who before the season really thought Harden was going to be THIS EXCEPTIONAL a scorer? Who among us didn't at least have some doubts of whether Lin could even be an average player? How much beef Morey caught for dealing for these three young core players? The fact is this year, no matter what flashes of brilliance you see, is just a transition rebuilding year. A 50/50 record should already be slightly above expectation, you will doubtlessly experience some really frustrating losses. Some guy mentioned that he's going out of his mind watching good leads slip away in late stages, but that's part of the growing pain every young team has to go through. The fact you get leads in late stages against good teams should be highly encouraging when you have such an experienced young core in their first year playing together, instead of being viewed in negative lights.

The key to Lin's success is really on the coach to free his mind a bit. He can't be afraid of his failures right now and frankly he has to convince himself that he's an elite player deep down, maybe not right now, but he needs to believe that one day he's going to be an all star. He can't keep thinking about taking a backseat first, he needs to play to earn his teammates trust and respect by being who he is. If he can prove that he can handle his part, Harden while has a chip on his shoulder is not really a total a$$, Harden will adapt to him as well and enjoys the fact that he has a lighter load. Right now the team is in a bad balance because Lin keeps thinking about deferring, that ruins his game so Harden feels he has to do more, now the more Harden does the less in rhythm Lin is, then Lin wants to defer more or doubts himself. That minimize what both of these players can do.

A lot of people rag about Westbrook, but without Westbrook's style maybe KD won't be as aggressive because KD is by nature a mellow guy. I think Harden is the typical great scorer that needs someone else to be a bit assertive to keep him in check, otherwise Harden does more than he should and costs team games.

In the end let me make some predictions. I think this year is going to be a very rocky year. I don't have a great deal of faith in McHale as a coach so Lin and Harden has to figure most of this out by themselves. I think Lin and Harden both need some moments of epiphany to come to the conclusion that they need to have a more balanced act between them two. This year it'll be too late before they figure it out, if they figure it out. At most the Rockets will squeeze in the first round.

Next year I feel good, I think the Rockets have a core that can go to the 5th or 4th seed because they are young, they can run and abuse the older teams. They'll learn to play with each other and they'll be more experienced. But I don't see how they can overcome a team like OKC or Spurs anytime soon. Spurs just has an exceptional coach and system, so it'll be very difficult. The Lakers while old has some unbelievable pieces, so that team's success really depends on how their coach performs more than anything else.

Lin no doubt in my mind will earn his contract at 8 per. I think by the third year we'll get a really good idea of where his ceilings may be. If you look at his numbers he matches very well with Parker and Nash at this stage of their career, but it's a bit hard to project him to reach that level... but why not? He has the physical tools and he has the brain, I just don't know whether he has the personality. He won't ever be a complete player like Lebron, but who is? But he can be a very special player with some manageable flaws.

I just hope he comes to the understanding that once he gets on the court, he needs to release the hulk... he can go back to be the humble passive nerdy guy after he gets off the court. It'd be a tragic loss for basketball fans if he doesn't learn the trick...

[Zubby]

Hey look its a LOF that hates/"thinks he better" than other LOFs because he doesn't like Jesus... Thats as far as I read




but seriously there is a thread right below yours where people are talking about the same thing.

[zapatasblood]

I only got that far and then scrolled down and damn this is to much to read about one average player.

[Zubby]

I only got that far and then scrolled down and damn this is to much to read about one average player.

lol
The day Lin drops 20+ again AND hits the game winner...

I think I might have to board up my pc for a week... or at least not come to realgm for a week, this board will explode with Lin threads and 1,000 new accounts complaining about the coaching staff, Harden, some bench player who didnt even get into the game, and for some reason Mike Dantoni, Melo and the Knicks.

[zapatasblood]

God help us when Lin hits a game winner. Fanboys are just to be insane and irrational although they already are but they will step thier game up. Almost want Lin to remain bad to average so that I don't have to hear from them.

[rocketsballin]

good god almighty i cant read all that. need some cliff notes

[columbiaa14]

TL;DR

-Jeremy Lin is a humble guy by heart, but has built up skills of iso and scoring. He has to let his natural strengths shine and overcome his deferring personality.
-Have patience and let Lin start with Harden. Tell Harden to play more of the traditional SG role and have Jeremy freely control the ball on offense like any other PG.
-Bringing Lin off the bench is silly because it does not fit with the long-term plans.

But the background on Lin and why he is a "special" player--100% agree with that. He has overcome so much in his career, and has countlessly overexceeded expectations and proven haters wrong.

Here's a bit of shameless advertising on my video recapturing all that

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WDK6NCsxzo[/youtube]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WDK6NCsxzo

[Daggy]

Thank you, great summary.

TL;DR

-Jeremy Lin is a humble guy by heart, but has built up skills of iso and scoring. He has to let his natural strengths shine and overcome his deferring personality.
-Have patience and let Lin start with Harden. Tell Harden to play more of the traditional SG role and have Jeremy freely control the ball on offense like any other PG.
-Bringing Lin off the bench is silly because it does not fit with the long-term plans.

But the background on Lin and why he is a "special" player--100% agree with that. He has overcome so much in his career, and has countlessly overexceeded expectations and proven haters wrong.

Here's a bit of shameless advertising on my video recapturing all that

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WDK6NCsxzo[/youtube]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WDK6NCsxzo

[Daggy]

I only got that far and then scrolled down and damn this is to much to read about one average player.

lol
The day Lin drops 20+ again AND hits the game winner...

I think I might have to board up my pc for a week... or at least not come to realgm for a week, this board will explode with Lin threads and 1,000 new accounts complaining about the coaching staff, Harden, some bench player who didnt even get into the game, and for some reason Mike Dantoni, Melo and the Knicks.

Now I see you really didn't read the post at all. A quick note on the Jesus thing, I have nothing against Jesus, but if someone never watched basketball before and is only watching because she just learned that Lin is a very devote Christian, that person would be a bit hard to talk to.

I think to distinguish myself from that kind of followers is pretty important before I talk about Lin. If you don't read it it's no big deal, sometimes people still talk beyond 140 chars, that's all.

[Mr. E]

You took the time to write it, so I took the time to read it!

I agree with your assessment of Lin's time with this team. He and Harden will have to figure something out, but you are right that there will be growing pains this year.

I'm willing to be patient with the guy. My hope is that the team would develop to the point where his primary focus on the offense is as the facilitator while being the 4th (maybe 3rd) scoring option. Score just enough to keep the defenses honest while trying to pick up the other guys on the court.

[Guy986]

Holy wall of text batman. What is this your masters thesis?

TL DR

[inquisitive]

Holy wall of text batman. What is this your masters thesis?

TL DR

His book report from last summer..

[M4P]

It's not the fact that he wants to be a sidekick more so than the fact that he's afraid of stepping on people's toes and making a mistake. Lin needs to realize that he's going to make mistakes and not be perfect. Once he realizes that, he'll easily be worth his contract.

[Daggy]

Holy wall of text batman. What is this your masters thesis?

TL DR

I don't always drink beer, but when I do, I write long posts...

[rockmanslim]

I read it, worth the read imo. You spent most of the post addressing the possible issues with his mental approach, which are very plausible. But another factor to his struggles might just be that he doesn't have the ability to be a consistently great player in this league. Like you mentioned, albeit only briefly, he has some serious flaws in his game. Those flaws have little to do with mental approach; they may simply be deficiencies in ability/talent/skill. See: his subpar play for most of this season. But then again he did just put up 38 and 7 on the Spurs, so I guess I'm like a lot of people, not sure what to make of it.

I guess time will tell. Anyway, good post, enjoyed reading it, coherent and flowed so well i didn't even notice it was a novel.

[UpNUnder]

You took the time to write it, so I took the time to read it!

I agree with your assessment of Lin's time with this team. He and Harden will have to figure something out, but you are right that there will be growing pains this year.

I'm willing to be patient with the guy. My hope is that the team would develop to the point where his primary focus on the offense is as the facilitator while being the 4th (maybe 3rd) scoring option. Score just enough to keep the defenses honest while trying to pick up the other guys on the court.

I bet that's exactly what he was told to do. He tried it and found his ass sitting on the bench. As a point guard your objective is to do whatever it takes to get your team to score points. You cannot be thinking about pecking orders. You have to find the guy that's in the best position to make baskets. Sometimes that guy is yourself. As a coach the last thing you want to tell your PG is "hey, you're the 4th option alright? Find Harden first, then Parson and 2pak, shoot it only when you have to". Imagine Pop telling Tony Parker that in his early NBA days. He would never be the point guard he is today. A great point guard generally always wind up making the right plays anyway. So if Harden, Parsons are the two best players, they will eventually score the most points for the team. But it has to happen naturally, not artifically arranged.

Look, I don't know what you see in him that makes you believe that his ceiling as a scoring PG is "a 4th (maybe 3rd) option". To me he is just a jumper away from being a great offensive player. The Rockets will be a heck of a team if the coaches let Lin play naturally and still wund up being the 3rd or 4th option.

[madmaxmedia]

He's unique, but more or less all NBA players are unique. Everyone has strengths and weaknesses. As an Asian, I think the whole 'Asian values' thing is overplayed. There's selfish and unselfish Asians, Blacks, Whites, Latinos, Pakistanis, whatever.

He's a very heady player but doesn't have the PG court vision of a top NBA point guard, so what he is best at is driving and generating offense for himself or teammates that way. You could attribute it to culture or alpha ball, etc. but at the end of the day not everyone can ball at PG like a CP3, we're literally talking the cream of the crop here. He's quick in body and mind but I just don't see that really high-level court vision from him.

By NBA standards he's a good athlete but does not stand out, that's why he's 'caged' compared to the top scorers in the league. If he were 6'6" then I think we're having a very different conversation about Jeremy Lin as he would be a SG.

His jump shot has been very inconsistent this year, especially spot up shooting. He really needs to improve this to increase his overall effectiveness, whatever the role.

I agree with a lot of the points about how he is best effective. When he was impressively leading the Knicks to wins, he didn't have to worry about being a floor general, he could run PnR's and iso's, and kick out to teammates who were playing off his drives. It was a LOT of fun to watch, but they weren't playing a lot of great teams during that stretch, much less a 7-game playoff series against a tough opponent.

I do wonder how he would perform leading a second unit in this way. I don't think it's necessarily a demotion to be the absolute leader of the second unit, vs. being a 3rd wheel in the starting five.

[madmaxmedia]

To me he is just a jumper away from being a great offensive player.

Which is a different thing that saying he is just a jumper away from being a great PG.

[Daggy]

I read it, worth the read imo. You spent most of the post addressing the possible issues with his mental approach, which are very plausible. But another factor to his struggles might just be that he doesn't have the ability to be a consistently great player in this league. Like you mentioned, albeit only briefly, he has some serious flaws in his game. Those flaws have little to do with mental approach; they may simply be deficiencies in ability/talent/skill. See: his subpar play for most of this season. But then again he did just put up 38 and 7 on the Spurs, so I guess I'm like a lot of people, not sure what to make of it.

I guess time will tell. Anyway, good post, enjoyed reading it, coherent and flowed so well i didn't even notice it was a novel.

First of all thanks a lot for the great compliment.

Now on Lin, I really don't see much deficiency in talent, he's not had a full season under his belt yet but he has put up some huge numbers in 40 some odd games. A lot of people will point to the 20 some bad games and say he's average, but I actually see a ton of potential instead.

Here's the thing, when a player is raw and young like Lin, polished skills and consistency actually don't count as much. You can be the most consistent scorer at 13 per and more often than not in five years you'll still be that guy, because a consistent player is ALREADY POLISHED, he's near his ceiling. I think it's much more exciting when a guy is 2/9 for stretches, act without a clue sometimes, but once he goes into "hulk" mode he drops 38 on Lakers and Spurs with two different teams. That shows me he has it in him, he just doesn't know how to harness it. That's why I did all those psycho analysis, I think it's his head, it's his inexperience and it's his youth. The good thing is all those things can be enhanced much more easily than talent.

[Daggy]

His jump shot has been very inconsistent this year, especially spot up shooting. He really needs to improve this to increase his overall effectiveness, whatever the role.

I think that'll come with age. Jason Kidd had a horrible jumper, but he's now one of the best 3 point shooter in the game. Hell, MJ was known more for dunking at the beginning, look at his jumpers near the end of his career, look at Lebron... jumper is something you don't worry too much at this stage of the career.

Last year lots of people were yapping about his turn overs, I said at the time not to worry about that because that's another thing that comes with age and is easily fixable. And Lin fixed it a lot sooner than I expected.

His free throws are smooth and accurate, he shows he can make big free throws in key moments, that's another sign that his jumpers will be more consistent down the road.

Now on court vision I agree, like I said in my post his skill set is a "alpha" skill set. He's a scoring PG. That's another thing I feel we shouldn't be too hang up on, there's not ONE WAY to play PG. Rondo, Westbrook, Nash, Kidd, Parker all play PG quite differently, some score more, some assist more, some defend more, some run more, they are all successful in their own ways. If Lin can be on their level in any one of those styles he'll be fine. Then it depends on what kind of teammates he has around him.

But I definitely don't think Lin has the natural talent or inclination to be an "assist first" type of PG, he really, really tries hard to be that, but that's not what he is. He needs to be in a scoring rhythm, constantly slashing to put pressure on the defense, then figure out when to pass. I think if the coach forces him to "think about other guys" all the time, it's going to really mess him up.