OT: Sanchez going back to Detroit: five-year, $80 million

[overdose]

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm
Anibal Sanchez has signed with the Chicago Cubs

[overdose]

Apparently it's for five-year deal worth $75 million dollars

[Ado05]

So I guess this means JJ will get around 20 mill a year if he has a decent season???

[Skin Blues]

Maybe if it's a short-term deal. I doubt he gets much more than $15M/yr if he wants long-term like Anibal. Too many question marks about his shoulder and lost velocity. Then again, sometimes free agency isn't logical as it just takes one team making a dumb decision to have a crazy contract.

[flatjacket1]

So I guess this means JJ will get around 20 mill a year if he has a decent season???

Haha. 20M? Grienke got 24.5M for 3.5 ERA in 2012. Josh Johnson CAREER ERA is 3.15. If JJ pitches 200 innings under 3.5 ERA you are talking 25M+ with inflation+baseball inflation. Anthony over 200 innings with less than 4 ERA gets him 22+

I still think he'd be crazy to sign a deal now. I'd offer him 105M/6 years and hope he accepts.

[xAIRNESSx]

Apparently not a done deal. Seems the Tigers are mulling over whether to match or not.

[SharoneWright]

Apparently not a done deal. Seems the Tigers are mulling over whether to match or not.

O man, you give him a 'take it or leave it offer' like the Angels did with Hamilton. You refuse to get played. And dude signs.

[Hendrix]

So I guess this means JJ will get around 20 mill a year if he has a decent season???

Haha. 20M? Grienke got 24.5M for 3.5 ERA in 2012. Josh Johnson CAREER ERA is 3.15. If JJ pitches 200 innings under 3.5 ERA you are talking 25M+ with inflation+baseball inflation. Anthony over 200 innings with less than 4 ERA gets him 22+

I still think he'd be crazy to sign a deal now. I'd offer him 105M/6 years and hope he accepts.

I don't see that to tell you the truth.

Grienke didn't get paid for a 3.5 ERA in 2012. He got paid that because he's been consistently one of the best pitchers in baseball averaging 5.7 WAR/year, and 207 innings for the last 5 years.

Johnson otoh hand has averaged 3.9 WAR and 146 innings over the last 5 years and had shoulder problems as well as Tommy John surgery.

Johnson hasn't been as good, hasn't been as consistent, and has more injury risk so I can't see him making more money than Grienke.

Caine got $127.5/6 years (21.25mm/year). I'd say Johnson has been approximately as effective, but is a lot riskier than Caine who has averaged 220 innings for the last 5 years, with none under 200.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say somewhere around what CJ Wilson got. Wilson averaged 5.5 WAR over a couple years with 211 innings/year, but had some question marks/risk just like Johnson (though the question marks were for a different reason). $15-$18 million per year (depending on the length of the contract), seems about right.

[flatjacket1]

I don't see that to tell you the truth.

Grienke didn't get paid for a 3.5 ERA in 2012. He got paid that because he's been consistently one of the best pitchers in baseball averaging 5.7 WAR/year, and 207 innings for the last 5 years.

Johnson otoh hand has averaged 3.9 WAR and 146 innings over the last 5 years and had shoulder problems as well as Tommy John surgery.

Johnson hasn't been as good, hasn't been as consistent, and has more injury risk so I can't see him making more money than Grienke.

Caine got $127.5/6 years (21.25mm/year). I'd say Johnson has been approximately as effective, but is a lot riskier than Caine who has averaged 220 innings for the last 5 years, with none under 200.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say somewhere around what CJ Wilson got. Wilson averaged 5.5 WAR over a couple years with 211 innings/year, but had some question marks/risk just like Johnson (though the question marks were for a different reason). $15-$18 million per year (depending on the length of the contract), seems about right.

Look at the rate statistics, Johnson gets more fWAR/inning. If he proves he can handle 200 IP still he will get paid. Injury risk or not, he's been one of the best pitchers over the last 5 years including the time he has missed.

A surefire ace gets paid. Cain was years ago, and look at his fWAR over the last 5 years compared to Johnson. Shockingly similar. Baseball + normal inflation.

[Hendrix]

Look at the rate statistics, Johnson gets more fWAR/inning. If he proves he can handle 200 IP still he will get paid. Injury risk or not, he's been one of the best pitchers over the last 5 years including the time he has missed.

A surefire ace gets paid. Cain was years ago, and look at his fWAR over the last 5 years compared to Johnson. Shockingly similar. Baseball + normal inflation.

Cain's contract was 9 months ago. Imo, Johnson has more risk than him.

The rate statistics are not everything though. If he was pitching 207 innings every year like Grienke then he would be producing about the same WAR as Grienke. But, unfortunately he hasn't done that due to some pretty crappy injury problems. If he was healthy all those years, then yeah, he'd be getting paid Grienke-money. But, with the injury issues/risk he's going to get quite a bit less than Grienke. It's something that has to be factored in, and is going to keep him from getting 25mm/year. If he was healthy all of the last 6 years then year, I could see 25mm/year.

I don't think you can really call him a surefire ace. Halladay was a surefire ace for years. Johnson's missed significant time in half of the last 6 seasons.

[flatjacket1]

The rate statistics are not everything though. If he was pitching 207 innings every year like Grienke then he would be producing about the same WAR as Grienke. But, unfortunately he hasn't done that due to some pretty crappy injury problems. If he was healthy all those years, then yeah, he'd be getting paid Grienke-money. But, with the injury issues/risk he's going to get quite a bit less than Grienke. It's something that has to be factored in, and is going to keep him from getting 25mm/year. If he was healthy all of the last 6 years then year, I could see 25mm/year.

I don't think you can really call him a surefire ace. Halladay was a surefire ace for years. Johnson's missed significant time in half of the last 6 seasons.

About the same as Grienke? Sure. Look at Cain though.

Grienke: 1035 innings, 28.5 fWAR = 36.3 innings per fWAR
Josh Johnson: 731 innings, 19.5 fWAR = 37 innings per fWAR
Cain: 1099 innings, 19.2 fWAR = 57 innings per fWAR

Even with the injuries he is smashing everything and everybody who throws. Basically, broken Josh Johnson > healthy Matt Cain.

If JJ pitches 200 innings this year, he takes away a lot of doubt about his previous injuries. He is a top 15 pitcher over the last 5 years, and pitched 300 innings less than most of the people above him.

[Hendrix]

Yeah, he's been better than Cain when he's pitched. But, he hasn't been able to pitch near as much. That's a factor that works against him vs. Cain. There's value in going into a season knowing you're going to get 220 innings eaten up from 1 of your pitchers, compared to going into a season and having one of your pitchers only pitch 60 innings, and having to call up some AAA pitcher to fill in, and put preasure on the pen. Or even worse, having the guy re-injure his shoulder or elbow half way through the contract and providing nothing for the last few years @ $25+mm/year.

This isn't really about Cain though. It's about Grienke, and this.

If JJ pitches 200 innings under 3.5 ERA you are talking 25M+ with inflation+baseball inflation.

So you are saying JJ would get more than 25mm if he pitches under 3.5 ERA (and more than Grienke). Well, Grienke pitched slightly sub 3.5 ERA last year, and didn't get quite that kind of money, and has a way better track record over the previous 5 years.

So, what you are saying is....

Pitcher A- sub 3.5 ERA the year before signing a contract, with 5.7 WAR/year, and 207 innings over the last 5 years, and no injury history, gets 24.5mm/year.

Pitcher B- sub 3.5 ERA the year before signing a contract, with ~4 WAR/year, and ~155 innings/year over the last 6 years, with pretty major injury issues gets over 25mm/year.

I don't see how that adds up.

[Skin Blues]

If JJ can't get his velocity back then what he did pre-injury won't be as important. Greinke and Cain have been very healthy. Have a look at Josh's IP per season, it's pretty scary. Last year he wasn't able to pound the zone like he has in the past because he can't get his fastball by hitters anymore. As a result he's throwing more pitches, missing less bats, and getting hit harder. If he repeats what he did last year then I doubt we'll be seeing anything close to a Cain/Greinke-like contract for him. I personally hope he can add 1 or 2 MPH to his fastball and return to the pitcher he was a couple years ago, but that is not a very common occurrence. Shoulder injuries are a bitch.

[overdose]

ummmm nvm he's going back to Detroit...

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

Jerry Crasnick reports the Tigers have a 5-year, $80m deal with Anibal Sanchez. Separately: Edwin Jackson is going to get paid in a big way.

[TheMainEvent]

80-for-5 seems large, but overall, I'd say 16 mill a year for Sanchez isn't too bad. It's still easy to say that it's a large contract, but this is basically the norm for baseball's current market. Plus, his basic stats aren't too different than Greinke's the past three seasons.

[Raptor_Guy]

80-for-5 seems large, but overall, I'd say 16 mill a year for Sanchez isn't too bad. It's still easy to say that it's a large contract, but this is basically the norm for baseball's current market. Plus, his basic stats aren't too different than Greinke's the past three seasons.

Exactly! I've been saying this for a while, I don't see how Greinke gets nearly double Sanchez just because people view Greinke as an ace even though his stats are similar to Sanchez. Sanchez has been a model of consistency and durability, and I feel those are 2 attributes of a pitcher that are underrated.

[James_Raptors]

Just announced on the Fan 590.
So much for the Cubs I guess.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/tigers-to-sign-anibal-sanchez.html

[James_Raptors]

"The five-year preserves the Tigers' formidable rotation. Led by Justin Verlander, the group also includes Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly.It's possible Porcello will become a trade candidate once the Tigers complete their deal with Sanchez; the 23-year-old has already drawn interest from a number of National League teams."

[flatjacket1]

Yeah, he's been better than Cain when he's pitched. But, he hasn't been able to pitch near as much. That's a factor that works against him vs. Cain. There's value in going into a season knowing you're going to get 220 innings eaten up from 1 of your pitchers, compared to going into a season and having one of your pitchers only pitch 60 innings, and having to call up some AAA pitcher to fill in, and put preasure on the pen. Or even worse, having the guy re-injure his shoulder or elbow half way through the contract and providing nothing for the last few years @ $25+mm/year.

What your saying is:
Player A who hits 20 HR's but only plays 50 games < Played B who plays 100 games and hits 20 HR's.

I'm saying IF JOHNSON PITCHES 200 INNINGS THIS SEASON... For the last time. IF HE PITCHES 200 INNINGS. IF HE PITCHES 200 INNINGS. GM's don't look at careers when evaluating a player. They look at the last 3 years typically, sometimes the last 5. Nobody cares about what said played did when he was low 20's. If JJ pitches 200 innings we can expect around 7+ fWAR, so we'd be talking after that.

Injuries suck but when a player with them has still outperformed players without them, your talking about a darn good player.

This isn't really about Cain though. It's about Grienke, and this.

Why mention Cain then? I never brought him into this, YOU did.

So you are saying JJ would get more than 25mm if he pitches under 3.5 ERA (and more than Grienke). Well, Grienke pitched slightly sub 3.5 ERA last year, and didn't get quite that kind of money, and has a way better track record over the previous 5 years.

Yes. I am saying exactly that. This is literally like Bautista hittig 200 HR's over the last 5 years in limited playing time. They are going to look at the injuries as a plus, not a minus, as if he was healthy he'd easily of dropped close to 280.

So, what you are saying is....

Pitcher A- sub 3.5 ERA the year before signing a contract, with 5.7 WAR/year, and 207 innings over the last 5 years, and no injury history, gets 24.5mm/year.

Pitcher B- sub 3.5 ERA the year before signing a contract, with ~4 WAR/year, and ~155 innings/year over the last 6 years, with pretty major injury issues gets over 25mm/year.

First of all, that's so stupid. You are using 6 years for Johnson, but 5 years fro Grienke. Bias much? You are clearly manipulating stats. Learn how to compare players properly, then come back to me.

[Hendrix]

Jesus you are whiny. You know, it's not the end of the world to simply say "hmmm, yeah maybe he won't make more than Grienke". It's a lot better than throwing a tantrum, mashing capslock, and sticking to your incorrect guns all the time.

GM's don't look at careers when evaluating a player. They look at the last 3 years typically, sometimes the last 5

He missed most of a season 5 years ago due to Tommy John surgery, and missed a good chunk of a couple years ago with shoulder problems. Fastball has lost velocity. I'm not even sure what it is you are arguing. You are making my case for me by saying that this is all relevant information as it is inside your time parameters.

And, if we were to look at just the last 3 years (assuming he has a good year this year) he would have provided 5.5 WAR the first 2 years of those 3 years. The other day you were going on about how Dickey didn't do anything the 2 years before his Cy Young, even though he compiled 5.3 WAR in those 2 years. So, Dickey didn't do anything? Yet, Johnson's worth more than Grienke?

First of all, that's so stupid. You are using 6 years for Johnson, but 5 years fro Grienke. Bias much? You are clearly manipulating stats. Learn how to compare players properly, then come back to me

Seriously..... Are you kidding?

You have to be kidding about me being bias. What possible reason do you think I have to be bias against a player on my own team? Especially considering I already posted the 5 year comparisons in a previous post. The only reason I posted 6 years vs. 5 years was because I had already calculated both 5 year comparisions in an earlier post, and since I had to factor in your projection of a what he would do this year into it, it was easier to just tack it onto my earlier calculation then go back, and calculate everything again.

And, it hardly makes any difference at all. The same point still stands, which you completely sidestepped. Maybe the #'s are slightly different, but they still paint the exact same picture. I simply do not know how you think Player B in that situation deserves more money than player A.