2013 Rogers Centre Sell Outs over/under 29.5?

[gei]

You guys are grossly underestimating the magnitude of the Jays fan base.

I'm willing to bet that at LEAST 4 of the first 6 games of the season will be sellouts. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if all 6 were.

Game 1 is long since sold out - Game 2 will be sold out for all the people who couldn't get game 1 tickets. Friday's game against the red sox will be sold out for sure and likely saturday's too.

[The_Hater]

I think with the off-season hype the Jays are looking at somewhere from 2.6-3.0m attendance next year. And that is being incredibly optimistic IMO. Before the wheels totally fell off last year and late summer attendance dropped off, the Jays were on pace for about 2.2m last year (so I'll use 27k/gm as a base instead of 25k). You almost never see more than a 8k/gm jump from year to year anywhere without a new stadium to go with it, but in the Jays case, given all the market conditions, I'll say they achieve that based off hype and anything at or above expectations will draw more as the year progresses. Really if this team gets anywhere near 3m, it would be the most monstrous fan rejuvenation in NA sports history (probably hyperbole 'cause I'm no historian, but it would be huge). A 50% increase in ticket sales would be absolutely absurd, but I think with team success it could come quite close to that, although it's purely speculative; I just think the average TOR sports fan has been dying inside for going on at least a decade and even a glimmer of sunshine will bring us out in droves (I wanted to mix more metaphors, but I'm lazy).

I think your range is about what I was thinking.

Assuming that the wheels don't fall of the season and they're playing meaningful games in August-Sept, I think that 2.6 is the low end figure. They already increased almost 30% from 2009 to 2011 without putting a better product on the field (actually got worse).

I haven't seen this much hype, press and word of mouth about the team this high in over a decade and as you alluded too, the city of Toronto is absolutely starved for a winner.

[MGD24]

You guys are grossly underestimating the magnitude of the Jays fan base.

I'm willing to bet that at LEAST 4 of the first 6 games of the season will be sellouts. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if all 6 were.

Game 1 is long since sold out - Game 2 will be sold out for all the people who couldn't get game 1 tickets. Friday's game against the red sox will be sold out for sure and likely saturday's too.

FYI, game 1 isn't sold out yet. The tickets they set aside for flex packs/season tickets (approx 20, 000) is sold out.
The rest, along with all single game tickets, will go on sale Friday February 15 at 10am.
It will sell out within minutes though.

[satyr9]

You guys are grossly underestimating the magnitude of the Jays fan base.

I'm willing to bet that at LEAST 4 of the first 6 games of the season will be sellouts. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if all 6 were.

Game 1 is long since sold out - Game 2 will be sold out for all the people who couldn't get game 1 tickets. Friday's game against the red sox will be sold out for sure and likely saturday's too.

3 million fans basically puts you even with BOS, DET, and LAA last year (granted there's a reason BOS draws that many). With some base to build on and the vast capacity of Rogers Centre, I could see the Jays surpassing those numbers, but to expect them to go from 26k/gm to around 40k/gm or more from one off-season, well let's just say my projection was as optimistic as I'm willing to be and even I think I'm crazy.

[baulderdash77]

The problem remains the weekday games. Those games will be very hard to sell out.

One thing helping us (hurting us? not sure) is that the Yankees & Red Sox only have 1 weekend series each this season and it's both in April.

I wonder if that was on purpose because now we have all these marquee games during the week instead of the unappealing Kansas City or Seattle mid week games. If they can sell out those mid week Yankee/Sox games than that will really be the difference in total season seats, because I really think they're going to get 120,000 fans on just about every weekend game for this season. Last year we were doing close to that pretty regularly before the wheels fell off.

The other big thing will be the 13 September games. Last year we were probably getting 15,000 per game in September. If the team is in a playoff position or race, I think you'll see 35-50k fan at each of these games.

Overall I do think that the team can get up into that 2.8-3.0 million fan range if we're in playoff hunt and that would be awesome but I wouldn't expect a lot more than that.

[baulderdash77]

FYI, game 1 isn't sold out yet. The tickets they set aside for flex packs/season tickets (approx 20, 000) is sold out.
The rest, along with all single game tickets, will go on sale Friday February 15 at 10am.
It will sell out within minutes though.

I had heard that they were going to reserve around 30k tickets to the opener for season seats & mini-packs but I may have misheard that.

The other big thing is group ticket sales for the home opener which they're still selling now.

I would bet that there will be less than 10,000 single seats available to the public. So the home opener will indeed be sold out in minutes. The Boston weekend series will also probably sell out.

[Gibby]

I say we average about 30,000 in attendance this year, no idea about sellouts though.

[LittleOzzy]

I say we average about 30,000 in attendance this year, no idea about sellouts though.

I think it might be closer to 35,000 with all the hype.

We have averaged 30K in years past when the team sucked right out of the gate.

[tiger7]

I'd say under but they'll probably average 35-40k for most games I'd say about 10-15 sellouts.

[Schad]

Announced sellouts, perhaps, but most teams achieve those with creative math these days, unfortunately; the 45k+ stadiums don't truly sell out all that often anymore.

[Gibby]

I say we average about 30,000 in attendance this year, no idea about sellouts though.

I think it might be closer to 35,000 with all the hype.

We have averaged 30K in years past when the team sucked right out of the gate.

We are going to notice a difference in August, September. If this team is contending like we all expect the attendance will be great during those months

[JRG]

Sellouts probably wont be high just cause the capacity at Skydome is huge. But by golly I can see the attendance skyrocket from what it has been. Especially weekend games no matter whos in town and especially in the lead up to October. Its going to be damn exciting.