OT: Angels trade Morales for Vargas

Raptors Realtor · Post #1 » by **Raptors Realtor** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:25 am

I didn't see this anywhere...

Angels make an interesting trade to add pitching depth by trading 1B/OF Kendrys Morales to Seattle for Jason Vargas... I wonder if this was a reactionary move after the Jays traded for Dickey because they have to be thinking we're currently their biggest competition in the AL.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=411968

The_Hater · Post #2 » by **The_Hater** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:33 am

Raptors Realtor wrote:I didn't see this anywhere...

Angels make an interesting trade to add pitching depth by trading 1B/OF Kendrys Morales to Seattle for Jason Vargas... I wonder if this was a reactionary move after the Jays traded for Dickey because they have to be thinking we're currently their biggest competition in the AL.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=411968

I don't think the move had anything to do with the Jays except the Angels were interested in Dickey themselves. The Angels have about 10 OF/1B types on the roster but only 2 decent starting pitchers so a move like this was going to happen at some point.

I have no doubt that the Mariners will lose this trade, they've been getting taken to the cleaners on trades ever since they handed the BoSox Varitek and Lowe. Nobody makes more lopsided trades than the M's.

satyr9 · Post #3 » by **satyr9** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:12 am

I don't know, I don't much like Vargas and I think I remember reading something about him and Safeco on top that made it worse, but apparently it wasn't noteworthy enough for me to actually remember the specifics. (I only leave in the mention, 'cause I fully expect someone else to remember what I'm talking about. Please do my work for me.

)

Morales is kind of a wildcard, 'cause before those years he missed he looked like he was panning out as a pretty damn good player. Given some time in the heart of that order now that he's had a year back, I wouldn't be shocked to see him working out as a solid pick-up for the M's. I do think the M's keep stacking up guys with boom/bust potential at the same spots though. Does this make Montero a full-time C or is Morales supposed to be a LF or is this the end of Smoak? They've spent a lot of assets trying to lock down the same spots, but in this case I don't see Vargas as a huge asset and they've got just a bonanza of young guys about to break into that rotation.

The other thought I have is the Angels have to be a cautionary tale for Jays fans. They had the biggest off-season of all teams last year, adding Wilson and Pujols, then got a career year out of Hunter, an MVP season out of a rookie Trout, had a Weaver/Wilson/Greinke/Haren/Santana rotation after the trade deadline and missed the playoffs. They didn't even have that many total busts. Santana for sure. None of the other starters performed to expectations, but they didn't kill them either and were totally healthy (maybe I'm being kind to Haren here, but he still accumulated almost 2 fWAR, which is another indicator that maybe we should stop use fWAR for pitching, 'cause Arrieta tossed 100IP in 16 starts with an ERA over 6 and generated 1.6 fWAR, meaning if he has a full season he throws 200IP of 6+ERA ball and generates more than 3 fWAR. I don't care how bad his BABIP was, that shouldn't be). The next biggest problem was that LaTroy and Isringausen proved to be done. Who would think 1 starter slot and 90 innings of relief would totally doom a season where you owned in offense, defense, and on the basepaths?

You look at their squad in comparison to the O's and Athletics and it should've been as close to bulletproof as you can get in professional sports by comparison. It's crazy to me that you can have the difference between LAA and BAL on offense, defense, and speed, with almost equivalent starting and be totally offset and even surpassed by the difference in bullpen. WPA proponents should use those two as exhibit A 'til the end of time, 'cause on paper, both in talent and almost every traditional statistic, the Angels should've whooped BAL in the standings last year.

/offtopic

UN-Owen · Post #4 » by **UN-Owen** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:33 am

Vargas is coming off a pretty good year. 14 - 11 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:39 am

The_Hater wrote:I don't think the move had anything to do with the Jays except the Angels were interested in Dickey themselves. The Angels have about 10 OF/1B types on the roster but only 2 decent starting pitchers so a move like this was going to happen at some point.

I have no doubt that the Mariners will lose this trade, they've been getting taken to the cleaners on trades ever since they handed the BoSox Varitek and Lowe. Nobody makes more lopsided trades than the M's.

Terrible though the Mariners have been in trade (it's been some time since Jack Z was a godlike figure alongside AA) this looks like a very good deal for them. Vargas is pretty average...below average, really, when you factor out Safeco. Morales is a good bat, and one whose penchant for doubles should limit his drop-off in production in that park.

Vargas is coming off a pretty good year. 14 - 11 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP

Opponents' OPS jumped by 207 points away from Safeco. He was dominant there, but AAAA-level on the road.

BigLeagueChew · Post #6 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:46 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
Opponents' OPS jumped by 207 points away from Safeco. He was dominant there, but AAAA-level on the road.

Are the Mariners not moving their homerun fences in as well? This may have made his numbers worse at Safeco than in previous years making it a good time to trade him. Unless it won't make much of a difference, you would know better than I would I think.

satyr9 · Post #7 » by **satyr9** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:47 am

This wasn't what I read earlier, but I did a cursory look in the usual places and this is close to what I read before (although it's in an article about fantasy advice, which I usually ignore):

Mike Podhorzer wrote:His (Vargas) xFIP in away games is an awful 4.90, but a .253 BABIP and nearly 80% LOB% has kept his ERA from looking disastrous.

That's good news if you're the Jays though.

Post #8 » by **Schad** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:48 am

BigLeagueChew wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
Opponents' OPS jumped by 207 points away from Safeco. He was dominant there, but AAAA-level on the road.

Are the Mariners not moving their homerun fences in as well? This may have made his numbers worse at Safeco than in previous years making it a good time to trade him. Unless it won't make much of a difference, you would know better than I would I think.

No, I agree. They sold high on a guy who might not be rotation-worthy this year.

CapeCrusader · Post #9 » by **CapeCrusader** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:54 am

The_Hater wrote:
Raptors Realtor wrote:I didn't see this anywhere...

Angels make an interesting trade to add pitching depth by trading 1B/OF Kendrys Morales to Seattle for Jason Vargas... I wonder if this was a reactionary move after the Jays traded for Dickey because they have to be thinking we're currently their biggest competition in the AL.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=411968

I don't think the move had anything to do with the Jays except the Angels were interested in Dickey themselves. The Angels have about 10 OF/1B types on the roster but only 2 decent starting pitchers so a move like this was going to happen at some point.

I have no doubt that the Mariners will lose this trade, they've been getting taken to the cleaners on trades ever since they handed the BoSox Varitek and Lowe. Nobody makes more lopsided trades than the M's.

Are you saying the Angels only have 2 decent pitchers?

SharoneWright · Post #10 » by **SharoneWright** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:29 am

Excellent deal for the M's.

The_Hater · Post #11 » by **The_Hater** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 5:48 am

CapeCrusader wrote:
Are you saying the Angels only have 2 decent pitchers?

I guess that depends what you think of Hanson but he's been getting worse every season and was clearly below average in 2012.

They've also added Blanton who's been bad lately but can eat innings and now Vargas so I guess that's their 5.

UN-Owen · Post #12 » by **UN-Owen** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:34 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
The_Hater wrote:I don't think the move had anything to do with the Jays except the Angels were interested in Dickey themselves. The Angels have about 10 OF/1B types on the roster but only 2 decent starting pitchers so a move like this was going to happen at some point.

I have no doubt that the Mariners will lose this trade, they've been getting taken to the cleaners on trades ever since they handed the BoSox Varitek and Lowe. Nobody makes more lopsided trades than the M's.

Terrible though the Mariners have been in trade (it's been some time since Jack Z was a godlike figure alongside AA) this looks like a very good deal for them. Vargas is pretty average...below average, really, when you factor out Safeco. Morales is a good bat, and one whose penchant for doubles should limit his drop-off in production in that park.

Vargas is coming off a pretty good year. 14 - 11 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP

Opponents' OPS jumped by 207 points away from Safeco. He was dominant there, but AAAA-level on the road.

I just took a quick glance at his stats to see what the asking price for Morales would have been for the Jays

While Safeco is a pitcher's paradise, I think most pitchers fair better at home regardless of their home park, no?

Coors Field being an obvious exception

CapeCrusader · Post #13 » by **CapeCrusader** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:09 am

The_Hater wrote:
CapeCrusader wrote:
Are you saying the Angels only have 2 decent pitchers?

I guess that depends what you think of Hanson but he's been getting worse every season and was clearly below average in 2012.

They've also added Blanton who's been bad lately but can eat innings and now Vargas so I guess that's their 5.

Hanson could still be the pitcher ATL was hoping he would be when they had him. Not scared of Blaton or Vargas. I was just surprised when you said the word "decent" to describe Wilson and Weaver. Weaver is one of the best in the game and has the stuff to possibly be best in the game (barring injuries). Wilson was up and down last year. But he still is a top starter in the league.

TheMainEvent · Post #14 » by **TheMainEvent** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:48 pm

About a minute after I talked with a friend about the idea of the Jays trading Happ for Morales, I saw this trade =(

Vargas is probably better. Angels needed better starting pitching, so this was a good trade for them. And Seattle ALWAYS needs hitting.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #15 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 2:23 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:
BigLeagueChew wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
Opponents' OPS jumped by 207 points away from Safeco. He was dominant there, but AAAA-level on the road.

Are the Mariners not moving their homerun fences in as well? This may have made his numbers worse at Safeco than in previous years making it a good time to trade him. Unless it won't make much of a difference, you would know better than I would I think.

No, I agree. They sold high on a guy who might not be rotation-worthy this year.

Definitely sold high, considering Seattle is also bringing in the fences this year. Great trade for them, gambling on Morales.

The_Hater · Post #16 » by **The_Hater** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:09 pm

CapeCrusader wrote:
The_Hater wrote:
CapeCrusader wrote:
Are you saying the Angels only have 2 decent pitchers?

I guess that depends what you think of Hanson but he's been getting worse every season and was clearly below average in 2012.

They've also added Blanton who's been bad lately but can eat innings and now Vargas so I guess that's their 5.

Hanson could still be the pitcher ATL was hoping he would be when they had him. Not scared of Blaton or Vargas. I was just surprised when you said the word "decent" to describe Wilson and Weaver. Weaver is one of the best in the game and has the stuff to possibly be best in the game (barring injuries). Wilson was up and down last year. But he still is a top starter in the league.

Thanks for pointing out that Weaver is a stud. Much appreciated.