The OFFICIAL Rookie impressions thread pt. II

[Jon1798]

In college, his timing was like nothing I've ever seen. Seemed like he NEVER went for a pump fake. Now all of a sudden he's jumping on small fakes from David Lee 20 feet away from the basket.

It's weird, but like you said, I think it will come. I just think he's thinking about so many things out there still. Probably thinking about his closeout technique, or his boxout after the shot instead of simply playing basketball and defending the man. You just never know with a 19 year old.

[boogie-reke]

I think the bigger space you have to cover in the NBA and the floor being so open compared to the collage game has the biggest impact on him. He's clearly struggling with that imo.

[The Sebastian Express]

Hey, it was just a silly thing to say coming from a Blazer fan. There are many valid arguments that you used, but when you dismiss the other guys argument because he is a Hornets fan, that opens your argument up for dismissal because you are a Blazer fan. Obviously you don't think being a Blazer fan should disqualify your opinion, so hopefully you see why you shouldn't be talking like this:

Just remember that you're making these arguments because you have high hopes for Davis to win the Rookie of the Year

Jon obviously has his reasons he thinks Davis will be a ROY candidate, so if you want people focusing on your arguments and not your allegiance, you should focus on his arguments and not his allegiance.

All I did was put things in perspective on how the media views Lillard and the arguments Jon1798 used won't be even considered by the voters, something you're failing to see. Unless someone can prove me wrong, you can't dismiss or "disqualify" what I said. But then again, didn't you say these things about Lillard:

So I have currently convinced myself that Teague looks like the best NBA prospect among PG's in the draft.

I find it interesting that he is consistently rated below Marshall and Lillard.

If Lillard is not an elite NBA scorer, he has a very limited ceiling. Not a great playmaker or defender.

I seem to be alone on this, but I think Teague has more NBA potential

Lillard has too many red flags for a PG IMO.

He will undoubtedly face tougher defense nightly than he did in his division. He wont have an athletic advantage to rely on.

He is still older than the other PG's in this draft, and hasn't shown the development as a point guard that I want to see.

Lillard - well apparently this was the guy the Blazers wanted. I guess at this point I have to trust them, even if I didn't agree with him going into the draft.

Don't see anything flagrant here. These are tempered statements from prior to the draft.

His criticism of your commentary to Jon was valid. For you to in one breath say Jon is essentially avoiding reality because of his allegiance to the Hornets and wanting a Hornets' player to win the award in Davis, then go on and on about how a player of from our team, the Blazers, is leading in reality is hypocrisy. As if you or other Blazers fans don't have a desire to see Lillard win based on him being a Trailblazer. There is little to no difference between you and Jon in this situation.

It's December. There are four months left. Davis has been injured, it is possible he will stay healthy the rest of the season, it is possible Lillard will not. It is possible Lillard will go into a prolonged shooting slump. It is possible he will not. It is possible Davis will go on an insane 20/10 run. It is possible he will not. It's possible one will hit the rookie wall, and the other will not. Or both will, or both will not. There are too many possibilities to boldly claim that one is going to win and that media members are only going to remember one's accolades and not the other. For every point you make about what the media and voters will remember about Lillard, others can point out the voters and media may remember Davis' big games so far, in addition to his championship season last year and him being added to the Olympics rosters and earning a gold medal.

As much as Jon is tied to the Hornets and his desire to see a NO player win, you are tied to the Blazers and a desire to see a PDX player win. No one here can read the mind of the voters or dictate how they'll vote when we have four months and nearly 60 games remaining for both players. DRB's commentary was just.

[Jon1798]

For the record, I appreciate what seems to be a large amount of level headed Blazers fans. We have a handful of fans on here, but it can get lonely at times, lol.

[Downtown]

One reason I'm a bit guarded about predicting Lillard as the top rookie by seasons end is that he carries such a big load for Portland. Will he hit the "rookie wall" at some point? Will the wear and tear of his first long season catch up to him? At what point will teams that are desperately trying to make the playoffs decide to get physical with him to knock him off his game and thus disrupt Portlands offence?

As of now I would definitely have Lillard sitting in the top spot but it's a marathon, not a sprint. But if he can continue to do what he's doing and shoulder the workload logging big starters minutes and be the leader of the Blazers all the way till the end then I can see him hoisting the award.

[NO-KG-AI]

What rookie big man has been a better defender than Davis? That's always a huge adjustment. He's already ahead of where Dwight Howard was when he was a rookie, and probably into his second year as well.

Just going off the top of my head, you probably have to go back to someone like Tim Duncan as a better defender straight from college.

Davis is going to be a dominant defender, don't kid yourselves. He's already able to translate is length and athleticism into turnovers and challenged shots with the best of bigs.

[BrooklynBulls]

Bradley Beal:

35.8% FG
30.5% 3PT
2.3 Assists
1.7 TO's

Austin Rivers:

36.1% FG
37.5% 3PT
2.8 Assists
1.5 TO's

Rivers....doesn't deserve to be in NBA. Beal....top 5 rookie. Go figure.

Beal is a year younger, a better defender, a better free throw shooter, a larger more athletic player, who is more efficient due to his volume of 3 point attempts and his ability to make his free throws, and who scores at 150% of the rate Rivers does. You told me to go figure, so I went and figured it.

[NO-KG-AI]

I can't imagine what Rivers numbers looked like before he had a small streak of good play :/

[Smirk]

Beal is a year younger

They are both rookies that left after there Freshman year of college. They have EXACTLY the same amount of experience.

[ComboGuardCity]

What rookie big man has been a better defender than Davis? That's always a huge adjustment. He's already ahead of where Dwight Howard was when he was a rookie, and probably into his second year as well.

Just going off the top of my head, you probably have to go back to someone like Tim Duncan as a better defender straight from college.

Davis is going to be a dominant defender, don't kid yourselves. He's already able to translate is length and athleticism into turnovers and challenged shots with the best of bigs.

I dont know how you can say he's been a better defender than Andre Drummond this year.

[Jon1798]

Bradley Beal:

35.8% FG
30.5% 3PT
2.3 Assists
1.7 TO's

Austin Rivers:

36.1% FG
37.5% 3PT
2.8 Assists
1.5 TO's

Rivers....doesn't deserve to be in NBA. Beal....top 5 rookie. Go figure.

Beal is a year younger, a better defender, a better free throw shooter, a larger more athletic player, who is more efficient due to his volume of 3 point attempts and his ability to make his free throws, and who scores at 150% of the rate Rivers does. You told me to go figure, so I went and figured it.

Shooting more 3's at a lower percent is a good thing? And as Smirk said, they are both rookies with one year of college. Not sure how being bigger comes into play. There are certainly a lot bigger guys behind Beal in the rookie ladder. Of course Rivers is listed at 6'4, 200, Beal at 6'3, 207. not sure that makes a lot of sense anyway.

PS- I like Beal. Just find it funny that the #3 pick gets a pass to the point of being ranked 5th on a list like this, while Rivers picked 10th gets so much hate. I wish I could find one person that would admit to hating him with no reason to back it up.

Rivers does need to improve his FT's though. Would really put him on another level than he's at now.

[boogie-reke]

What rookie big man has been a better defender than Davis? That's always a huge adjustment. He's already ahead of where Dwight Howard was when he was a rookie, and probably into his second year as well.

Just going off the top of my head, you probably have to go back to someone like Tim Duncan as a better defender straight from college.

Davis is going to be a dominant defender, don't kid yourselves. He's already able to translate is length and athleticism into turnovers and challenged shots with the best of bigs.

Davis is giving up over 1 PPP (1.04 to be exact) defensively, which is dreadful. I'm not one to follow numbers blindly and trust my eyes - but the numbers fit what my eyes are seeing. He's playing terrible defensively on alot of occasions.

I'm not phased by his stat-stuffing numbers, which I'm sure leads most people to believe he's above average defensively this year and make their case for it.

Andre Drummond quite clearly have been the better defender, all while having awareness problems of his own, and in general rookie mistakes.

Festus Ezeli is another kid who clearly plays and holds his own better defensively so far. So there's 2 names off the top of my head, in his own class.

People who judge defense by numbers will be impressed and think he's doing alright looking at the steals, blocks etc - but that's not really the case up till now.

[Jon1798]

I've seen every second Davis has played in the NBA. His defense has not been stellar. The Hornets defense as a whole has been a real achilles heal thus far, which is crazy for a defensive minded coach and a team that has played great defense for years. They just make so many young mistakes. Way too many easy baskets on screwed up switches and wide open threes because we are completely collapsing.

Don't get us wrong, Davis still blocks his share of shots, and alters even more. He's just making mistakes, and it shouldn't be a surprise. But for him and his expectations, it is.

[TheKingOfVa360]

Beal shouldnt even be top 10 at this point.

Bradley Beal:

35.8% FG
30.5% 3PT
2.3 Assists
1.7 TO's

Austin Rivers:

36.1% FG
37.5% 3PT
2.8 Assists
1.5 TO's

Rivers....doesn't deserve to be in NBA. Beal....top 5 rookie. Go figure.

You obviously haven't watched Beal play. Even though his shot isn't falling, he is taking the right shot. Plus his defense and all around game has been amazing for a rookie. 12.5 ppg 3.6 rpg 2.3 apg 1.0 spg compared to Rivers 7.9 ppg 2.2 rpg 2.8 apg with horrible defense. I really don't see the comparison. Plus Beal is doing it on a team that needs him to perform every night if we have any shot to win. Three of our starters are hurt (Wall, Nene, and Ariza).

[TheKingOfVa360]

What rookie big man has been a better defender than Davis? That's always a huge adjustment. He's already ahead of where Dwight Howard was when he was a rookie, and probably into his second year as well.

Just going off the top of my head, you probably have to go back to someone like Tim Duncan as a better defender straight from college.

Davis is going to be a dominant defender, don't kid yourselves. He's already able to translate is length and athleticism into turnovers and challenged shots with the best of bigs.

Davis is clearly not a great defender right now in the NBA (I think the injuries and team defense has hurt him). I think he will continue to improve on defense throughout the season. Of course eventually he will be a premier defender in the NBA, he has all the tools.

[DusterBuster]

David Thrope of ESPN says Lillard has potential to be as good as the likes of Rose, Westbrook and Irving.....

His current PER ranks second to [Kyrie] Irving's last season for all these guards as rookies. Part of this success is due to his comfort at the position as the season began. [Russell] Westbrook had to learn how to be a lead guard after not doing much of it in college. Ditto [Jrue] Holiday. [Ty] Lawson was more of a manager than a scoring guard (a problem that still plagues him sometimes). [Stephen] Curry had to learn how to get teammates involved, while [Derrick] Rose had no clue how to use ball screens (he rarely used them in college).

Lillard is terrific, as a rookie, at all these things. He's excellent in the pick-and-roll game, patient in his game-managing as he lets plays develop, and aware that he must score for his team to win. He's not the shooter Irving is, or Curry, but he is far better than Rose, Westbrook or [John] Wall were at their rookie age, and maybe even today.

We still have a lot to study as Lillard plays out the season, and we won't know much about his defensive talents for another season or two. But it's clear he has a chance to get to the level of Rose, Westbrook or Irving, which is saying a lot. The Trail Blazers, as a franchise, have to be pleased that their pick has, at least, the talent and upside to be a potential All-Star.

He projects to be better than many of the starting guards who have entered the league in the past five seasons or so. And his rookie season has the potential to measure up to -- and even exceed -- them all, which is huge when you consider how marvelous Irving was just a season ago.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2012/12/20/3 ... -potential

[Jon1798]

Beal shouldnt even be top 10 at this point.

Bradley Beal:

35.8% FG
30.5% 3PT
2.3 Assists
1.7 TO's

Austin Rivers:

36.1% FG
37.5% 3PT
2.8 Assists
1.5 TO's

Rivers....doesn't deserve to be in NBA. Beal....top 5 rookie. Go figure.

You obviously haven't watched Beal play. Even though his shot isn't falling, he is taking the right shot. Plus his defense and all around game has been amazing for a rookie. 12.5 ppg 3.6 rpg 2.3 apg 1.0 spg compared to Rivers 7.9 ppg 2.2 rpg 2.8 apg with horrible defense. I really don't see the comparison. Plus Beal is doing it on a team that needs him to perform every night if we have any shot to win. Three of our starters are hurt (Wall, Nene, and Ariza).

Sure I have. And I've seen every game of Rivers'. Your argument is pretty much what we've been saying about Rivers. He has fantastic handles, he is making good decisions with the basketball, he actually is playing good defense, only thing he wasn't doing early on is getting his shot to fall. Something that he has made up for and then some as of late.

And I don't think you can sit there and say Beal is so much more needed on a bad team compared to Rivers. The Hornets have won 5 games, actually lost head to head vs the Wizards, and they've been without Gordon, Davis, and Jason Smith. Not to mention Aminu has just been completely benched for some reason. And this also ignores the fact that Rivers has twisted his ankle three times and has played with a couple of fingers taped after spraining them on his left hand.

My only real issue with Beal is everyone acting like he's Ray Allen. Austin shot the 3 better than him in college too. But trust me, my post was more about Rivers than it is Beal. This board has a sick obsession with him that is completely unfair.

[fart]

Zeller with 20 points in his first start yesterday. He has played great all year in limited minutes and I think at #17 he was an absolute steal. I can see him being a 20/10 big man for years to come with the Cavs after varejao is gone.

[BrooklynBulls]

Shooting more 3's at a lower percent is a good thing?

It is preferable to shoot 3's at 30.5% than to shoot 2's at a similar or worse percentage, yes. Beal's efficiency is higher than River's due to that and FT shooting.

And as Smirk said, they are both rookies with one year of college. Not sure how being bigger comes into play. There are certainly a lot bigger guys behind Beal in the rookie ladder. Of course Rivers is listed at 6'4, 200, Beal at 6'3, 207. not sure that makes a lot of sense anyway.

I dunno, I watch them play, and Beal looks significantly larger and more athletic to me. Rivers has the better handle and hesitation moves, but gets swallowed up inside more often than does Beal.

PS- I like Beal. Just find it funny that the #3 pick gets a pass to the point of being ranked 5th on a list like this, while Rivers picked 10th gets so much hate. I wish I could find one person that would admit to hating him with no reason to back it up.

I think Beal should be ranked lower than 5th because...he has not been good. Although he's playing with maybe the worst point guard rotation I've ever experienced. Jordan Crawford is my least favorite player in the world.

I don't have any particular hate toward Rivers, I just think he currently sucks a fat one.

[BrooklynBulls]

Zeller with 20 points in his first start yesterday. He has played great all year in limited minutes and I think at #17 he was an absolute steal. I can see him being a 20/10 big man for years to come with the Cavs after varejao is gone.

He'll have trouble getting to either 20 OR 10, but it's the 10 that super hard to envision. The guy couldn't even get 10 in College, and his rebound has been similarly mediocre in the league. He lacks the talent to pull down 10+.