If you took over as GM today, what would you do?

[montestewart]

It was a shame that the clippers offered him 5/120. If it hadn't been for that, I think the wiz's offer would have been considerably lower.

5 years $120 million? I don't think they offered him that. They offered him what they gave Baron Davis which was something like 5 years $65 million.

I think GSW offered something in the $90 million range.

Wizards offered the max $127 over 6 years... Gilbert took a 'cut' of $16 million and so he signed for 6 years $111 million.

Yep, they apparently greatly outbid all other suitors for their own player, and presented it as if he'd been "generous"

[GhostsOfGil]

FAH, your right. I think GS offered 5 years 90 million.

Monte, I'm not sure "greatly outbid" is accurate since 5/90 was pretty much a max contract. IIRC the CBA allowed the wiz to offer 6 year deals while other teams could only offer 5. Regardless, it was a terrible move but I don't fault Ernie for that deal.

[montestewart]

The original 6 year offer was 37 million more than the GS 5 year offer. I guess the final deal was closer to the GS deal. In the end that was just one more year that had to be amnestied, but nobody k we that at the time. Still, resigning someone to a max k that has missed a year was a risky move.

[LyricalRico]

^ IIRC, at that point they had already extended Jamison, which meant letting Gil walk wouldn't have given them any cap space. So they had to either take the chance or lose Gil for literally nothing in return.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

MJ came in balling. He scored like 30 a night. Rubio's game is guile, crafty passing, pesky defense. He's not a burner. Most of all, Ricky's not a #1 overall-perceived-to-be-superstar.

Wall came in needing to find an outside shot. His game is speed and explosiveness. Take away his speed and he's a routine player. TKOV360, the first time they went head-to-head, Ricky Rubio outplayed Wall. I've seen Brandon Jennings, another young guy, outplay Wall. I've seen Darren Collison outplay Wall. Ty Lawson is flat better than Wall.

Wall is not in the class of a Jordan. This would be his third season if he recovers enough to play. He improved very little in year two.

All of that and a knee is why I would trade Wall. You guys may be right. I'm just not that impressed with Wall.

Head to head matchups mean squadoosh. The NBA is 5 on 5. Wall isn't completely at fault if his help never shows on D or his teammates brick open shots he's created. While Wall had plenty of bad games his first two years, he also had plenty of good ones where he statistically dominated his matchup. But It doesn't mean a damn thing without taking the entire body of work into consideration.

I don't think one can say for certainty how Wall will turn out. I think it's too early to even worry about a max long term extension. He hasn't earned anything close to that yet. He's certainly not in an ideal situation, he's likely to be rusty from resting the knee. The team is terrible and his questionable shooting only exacerbates the problem. If he raises his game and plays at a high level, I'll be real impressed. If he struggles but shows gradual improvement I may be more patient but if he's the same or regressed then certainly an extension may not be in our best interests.

If head-to-head doesn't mean anything then why couldn't the Wizards win when they had Jannero Pargo at PG?
--Why can't Vesely play SF every night?
--Why aren't the Wizards effective with veterans Trevor Ariza at SF and Emeka Okafor at C?
If an opponent is constantly outperforming the Wizard at a particular position, a wise opposing coach will exploit the matchup. Matchups mean something. The Wizards have only one player who wins his matchup nightly.

Dat, the context I used above was that Wall was outplayed at times by players just as young. Relatively speaking I don't see where he is any better those the guys. I used H2H stats to show their statistical advantages when they met up against Wall to illustrate that Wall is not yet a superstar who caused those players to have nightmare games.

I concede that Wall has the potential to become that superstar. I believe, however, others will trade quite a lot to get Wall.

[Dat2U]

You can't win with Pargo at PG or Vesely at SF because talent actually matters. And it's hard as hell to win 4 on 5 unless you have a superstar to carry the load of others.

You gave examples of Wall being outplayed to make your point about him not being that good. Again, that means nothing without looking at the entire body of work. I could point to examples where Wall outplayed Chris Paul, Ty Lawson and Kyle Lowry (on multiple occasions) but that doesn't mean Wall is better than any of those guys. And you'd be hard pressed to find enough statistical evidence that some of the guy's Wall's been outplayed by in head to head matchups in the past are actually better than Wall (Collison for example)

[dobrojim]

every dog has its day...just because player A on the Wizards outplayed
or got outplayed by Player B on the opp doesn't mean that much. It's the
ultimate in small sample size. If they do it every time they're matched up,
that's another story. When was the last time we beat SAS? When was the
last time we played them even close?

[hands11]

One of the worst mistake this team made was not trading Gil the year before his contract was up while everyone was drinking the Gil koolaid. Trade high. Buy low. They could have really gotten some assets. Instead they got a boat anchor.

Ridiculous.

There was never an ideal time to trade Arenas. Before Gerald Wallace body slammed him, he was having another sensational year posting a PER of 24 while playing 40 minutes a game. The team was 39-34. There was no way they were going to trade him then. Once Arenas got hurt and required the dreaded microfracture surgery, nobody was going to trade for him, not when his contract was due to expire in a year (possibly before he played another game).

The only thing the Wizards could have done would have been to refrain from resigning him. And frankly, I'm unmoved by anybody's boasts on whether or not they were right on that issue. The bottom line is that nobody on this board truly had any idea of the true condition of his knee and what the medical experts believed was his ability to recover. We were just guessing.

He was having another sensational year posting a PER of 24 while playing 40 minutes a game.

What do you think they could have gotten for him ?

Hey, no one said I would have been an easy decision to do. But it would have been the smart thing to do. They could have gotten a boat load for him. Maybe even Kobe if you remember what was going on at the time. I know I was saying they should do it. I never thought Gil was going to lead them anywhere even if he stayed healthy. The flaw in his personality as a top dog leader was a crack a mile wide. You were never going to build a winning team around paying a player like Gil max and we all know that was where it was headed. I said he would be an AI at beast and would only figure out the errors of his ways after his prime.

Well it turned out even worst then I expected. Should have traded him.

But, moving forward. Can't do anything about it know.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You can't win with Pargo at PG or Vesely at SF because talent actually matters. And it's hard as hell to win 4 on 5 unless you have a superstar to carry the load of others.

You gave examples of Wall being outplayed to make your point about him not being that good. Again, that means nothing without looking at the entire body of work. I could point to examples where Wall outplayed Chris Paul, Ty Lawson and Kyle Lowry (on multiple occasions) but that doesn't mean Wall is better than any of those guys. And you'd be hard pressed to find enough statistical evidence that some of the guy's Wall's been outplayed by in head to head matchups in the past are actually better than Wall (Collison for example)

Dat, I've had an epiphany. I was wrong to say he's not that good. That phrase is the whole sticking point. It's why we go around and around and around on this.

Yet another statistical measure has helped me reassess and modify my position on how good Wall was in 2010-2011.

http://www.hoopdata.com/advancedstats.a ... p=0&mins=0

I looked at EFF (efficiency), AWS (alternate win score), APER (adjusted player efficiency rating) per-40 minutes and sorted each by player. John Wall's name came up #31 on EFF, and #15 on both AWS and APER. Of players with any significant playing time, Wall came up #10 in USG (usage). Sorting Wall's weak area, TS% (true shooting %), John finished in the same vicinity as this players: Greivis Vasquez, Tyreke Evans, Andre Miller, Brandon Knight, Jose Juan Barea, Jrue Holiday. All of those players have shown their effectiveness on some level. Surprisingly, Wall had a fairly low AR (assist rate) and a fairly poorTOR (turnover rate).

This exercise has helped me consider Wall's game at his age and to see a lot better where he is a strong player. His shooting wasn't a damning weakness in 2011-2012 (but we know it is because he no longer tried to make the three). His playmaking numbers reflect what goes on at times in half court. He's not a bad playmaker but he is not elite. Dat, I would say Wall his a lot better than I thought based on numbers I FINALLY understand.

My (UPDATED) opinion is that there are a lot of players who are strong where he is not, but not many if any in his age/experience group who are close to as good as Wall.

I now see clearly why many of you get so upset with me posting Wall trade ideas. Let's face it. I've hated on John Wall for a while and said, "He's not that good" about 176 times in this forum by my accu-hate punch count.

I STILL WOULD TRADE WALL FOR VALUE because of his knee and contract timeline, just out of what I think is most likely to happen moving forward. I've already explained what I think value for Wall would be. Just wanted to say I appreciate better that his shooting is just one aspect but that for a young guy he's a top player (and therefore not -not good). Saying stuff like "not that good is inflammatory". I apologize.

[Illuminaire]

*slow, emotional clap*

[hands11]

Just another reason they have to get him out there to see what Wall can do with better players.

Last we saw him, he did not have vets like Nene, Okafor, Trever A and Webster to run with

As for resigning him, I would not do a contract longer then 3 years for big money. 12-13M over 3 years is good money. But they have to start winning now and to start next year or I would consider a trade at the trade line next year.

Actually, the fact that he will play only 20 mins for a while will be good. They can ease him back into the team instead of him coming in like a bull in a china closet. I think with Nene now playing 30 min and with Temple, they may be able to start to form an offense. Okafor compliments Nene nicely when out there together. If they can get Kevin to start playing more Neneish, they can start to form something and groom their future Nene replacement for down the road. I would keep Nene for the term of his contract and try to win now. Add Wall to the mix with Crawfords and his huge balls, and you have something that looks like an NBA roster.

Wall/Temple
Crawford/Beal
Trevor A/Webster
Nene/Ves/Booker
Okafor/Kevin

This above roster can compete nightly and if Beal could hit an outside shot, they would be playoff worthy. But in order to take the next step, they need to find is a pure shooter. Kolver, JJ Reddick, etc and something at least as good as Evan Turner at SF. If they could add someone at the Luol Deng or Josh Smith level, that would be huge.

To get there, I would consider trading anything from Beal, Singleton or Booker, Webster, Price, Martin, Mack, something from our picks ( like next years first, and maybe even Crawford.

If I keep my top pick, I draft a center from this next class so they are ready in a year or two. We should already have Nikola Vucevic from this last draft class but we didn't get that done. If I can't pick the right one is a draft, go after a Nikola Pekovic. The idea is to get a center who can replace Okafor as the starter so Kevin can move to PF full time. I would extend Okafor for fair value after his contract is up and have him as the eventual back up. He would be great in that role at 5-6M a year. Same with Trevor A. As a back up at the right price, he is a good piece to have. Long defensive SF with experience that can run. What they need is a starting SF who has at least 3 years experience. That is not a draft pick because they need it on the team to start next year.

I would be very careful dealing with Wall. If you feel like you are going to have to overpay him, I would trade him. Much like Gil at the time, I think they are fairly paid ( gil pre contract extension). Wall has been getting a nice raise every year and already made a boat load. His last year is at 8.7M So go 11, 11, 11 or 11, 12, 13 if he proves to be worth it. Team get killed to often overpaying. Specially at guard. I would rather over pay at F, C, or SF for a stud.

I think that would be more then fair. He would be 27 ish walking into his next deal. If he is all that, he can make the huge dough then. What he is worth will get proven by then.

After the added Nene for McGee ( which is was total steal ) they changed the course of this team. They have a 3-4 year window to WIN NOW. Getting Okafor and Trevor A ( while overpaid right now ) might actually turn out good if you can resign them for cheaper once their contracts are over. We haven't seen the fruit of it yet, but that Okafor/Trevor A trade may well have greatly accelerated their rebuild by giving Nene and Wall solid vets to win now with while also added future vet depth they they can sign for value as they fine the eventual starters for those positions. Both are solid NBA players in a defined role.

I can actually see this working out and with the right moves, they could be a 2nd round playoff team as early as next year while developing a few current picks like Kevin, Beal and Wall while adding new picks as they go who can step in two years after they are drafted.

[Dat2U]

Wall/Temple
Crawford/Beal
Trevor A/Webster
Nene/Ves/Booker
Okafor/Kevin

This above roster can compete nightly and if Beal could hit an outside shot, they would be playoff worthy. But in order to take the next step, they need to find is a pure shooter. Kolver, JJ Reddick, etc and something at least as good as Evan Turner at SF.

[hands11]

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400278174

Nikola Vucevic

The core of my 2011 draft idea was for the Wiz to trade down and get Nikola Vucevic and Brooks.
Kid is showing some game. Waiting on you Brooks.

This was the year most the board wanted us to trade up for Kanter. Some like D Williams. I couldn't stand him as a pick. He may still work out eventually but the early sign are not looking good for the 2nd pick.

Things may still work out for Ves but I just like what I saw in Nikola and I thought we needed to replace McGee with another young center. As for Singleton, let hope he shows some improvement. He could still end up being a good bench player one day if they find a legit stud to start at SF.

I like my picks better for earlier production and starter potential.

[AFM]

I would make hands the guy who wears the cape and throws the chipotle burritos out into the stands during timeouts.

[gambitx777]

OK, I'm going to address the john wall stuff here for a minute.
I have no problem trading john wall. I think he is a great PG but Knee injuries have doomed us the past couple years and it might be time to cut bait and run. i think if we trade him we need to just blow up the roaster. okariza, NENE, need to go, i think you only keep beal, and maybe Webster, i would say keep Jordan and Kevin but they might need to go two. I don't think johns a bust at all but some times you just have to move on. Maybe trade him to the pistons? something like this?

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bfdufql
Knight, Singler, Kravtsov and their pick this year. for John and chris.
Now their pick is supposed to go to the bob cats this year. But its top 14 protected. So they can send us their half of the protection.

the you find ways to move NENE, and okariza and you bring in what ever you can for them.
so i like john, I think hes a great player but im not opposed to moving him for a fair price.

[Deivy202]

Id trade wall and shop around atleast but dude come on thats a steal with knight . We need a clean house big time FO and GM.

[hands11]

I would make hands the guy who wears the cape and throws the chipotle burritos out into the stands during timeouts.

Good deal. Only I wouldn't be throwing them, I would be shooting them from the gun.

We could have you cleaning toilets after they get gobbled down.

[gambitx777]

Id trade wall and shop around atleast but dude come on thats a steal with knight . We need a clean house big time FO and GM.

a steal for who?

John Wall out plays Knight in every category except 3PT shooting. Kravtsov never sees the floor and singleton is a much better defender than Singler. I don't think its a steal i think its a pretty fair deal. putting Wall and Monroe together would be amazing for them.

[fishercob]

Well... most sensible possibilities have been posted, so I suppose this'll be repetitive -- I'll be quick in those areas:

1. Tell the owner that he and his previous GM have mostly done nothing but make mistakes. We're starting over, and within financial constraints *I* not he will make the personnel decisions.

2. Replace the clowns and dunderheads who people our FO, top to bottom, w/ the best we can get out of the SA and OKC organizations (preferably). Med staff too -- don't let the door hit your butt on the way out.

3. Every player on the team, w/ the possible exception of Beal, would be on the trading block. The idea of acquiring Love for any player or combo of players is great, of course. But... not likely.

4. Trade no picks (unless somehow getting better ones back). We're starting over.

5. Always trade multiple players for fewer players. I.e. no trades of 1 for 2 and not even any of 1 for 1. Unless we send out a long-term salary for an expiring one.

6. Trade any long-term salary for a significantly shorter one. Try to do well, of course, but it doesn't much matter as long as we are able to clear salary obligations.

7. Fill in if/as necessary for this season from the D League or... off the street? Who cares.

8. Say out loud and publically that we are going to be terrible for a while. What we did didn't work (again) and we don't have a path that goes straight from here to "better." The good news is that we can't really get much worse than we are.

We don't have a single player (again, possibly other than Beal) who combines good, or potential of good, play with a good contract or a good contract *situation*. Not one.

I'd be happy to trade Wall and/or Nene for some combination of youth, underratedness, picks, and/or good contracts/cap room.

Best post in the thread.

I'd add a frank discussion with Ted about his blog and PR efforts and how they are counterproductive. I have so much ill will towards the organization as a result of the North Korean "all is well" propaganda campaign. I'd ask Ted to either tell the brutal truth or stop talking. If you want support Jan Vesely, tell him you support him; don't blog that you support him, as it just rubs salt in the wounds of the paying customers. The "transparency" can be charming, but fans would much prefer a Bill Belichek environment if they team actually won.

I'd also hire Dave Joerger. We've discussed that a lot in the past, but I don't think I've seen it in this thread.

[verbal8]

I think at this point there isn't much that can dramatically change the talent level of the wizards. As mentioned earlier cousins and Derrick Williams are worth a gamble if they come cheaply. I might consider pursuing pau gasol. It might be a package of nene, Webster and even okafor might appeal if they could shed some salary in the deal.

However one of these acquisition would still leave the team well short of playoff level talent. It really needs to be a rebuilding that starts with the front office and medical staff.