RGM's Top 25 Most Valuable Players - Vote for #13

[shrink]

I'm sure I'm coming off as a total homer, but after reading those comparison threads, I got convinced that considering what's left, I'll vote:

Vote: Ricky Rubio

This year he has added the Adidas shoe contract to go with mega superstar-level endorsements like McDonalds in Spain. I highly value cheap rookie contracts (and the freed payroll they bring), but I have trouble voting for very young players at this level because I am also risk averse that I want to see some history that a player can compete against the NBA's best on big stages. Ricky helps me because I saw him as a teenager outplay Derrick Rose and Chris Paul in the Olympics representing his country. He has ridiculous court vision and veterans expertise at a young age, and makes miraculous passes that make you go "Dammmmn!" when you watch ESPN's Top Plays. He also seems sane and humble, and he's clearly going up the charts over the next six years - not declining.

I considered Kobe, who I have a hard time putting a value on, but at $27.8 vs $3.7 .. I just can't say Kobe's worth 6 times as much, and that big chunk out of a team's payroll. I considered Rondo, but I have concerns about his attitude, and how that would affect a team and his marketing potential. I also tried to pick Deron, but I think he's not the superstar he used to be. Marc Gasol is a very good player, but he's not a star, and the quality of being "above average" at everything, and great at nothing, doesn't get you there. I might consider Wade soon, but his contract gets real steep. So that left me looking like a homer, and voting for Rubio.

Nominate: Jeremy Lin

I don't know how much HOU's overseas deal is worth to broadcast Rockets games to the Chinese, but I hear that it's huge. I checked the January 3rd All Star ballots, and Lin may pass Chris Paul to be voted in as an All Star

Kobe Bryant (LAL) 1,177,456, Chris Paul (LAC) 651,893, Jeremy Lin (Hou) 605,624, James Harden (Hou) 337,585, Russell Westbrook (OKC) 268,558

I think that too often our RealGM voters talk about production, and if we are trying to match thefactors of trade value that actual GM's would consider, we don't put enough value into marketing.

[Sasaki]

I'm sure I'm coming off as a total homer, but after reading those comparison threads, I got convinced that considering what's left, I'll vote:

Vote: Ricky Rubio

This year he has added the Adidas shoe contract to go with mega superstar-level endorsements like McDonalds in Spain. I highly value cheap rookie contracts (and the freed payroll they bring), but I have trouble voting for very young players at this level because I am also risk averse that I want to see some history that a player can compete against the NBA's best on big stages. Ricky helps me because I saw him as a teenager outplay Derrick Rose and Chris Paul in the Olympics representing his country. He has ridiculous court vision and veterans expertise at a young age, and makes miraculous passes that make you go "Dammmmn!" when you watch ESPN's Top Plays. He also seems sane and humble, and he's clearly going up the charts over the next six years - not declining.

I considered Kobe, who I have a hard time putting a value on, but at $27.8 vs $3.7 .. I just can't say Kobe's worth 6 times as much, and that big chunk out of a team's payroll. I considered Rondo, but I have concerns about his attitude, and how that would affect a team and his marketing potential. I also tried to pick Deron, but I think he's not the superstar he used to be. Marc Gasol is a very good player, but he's not a star, and the quality of being "above average" at everything, and great at nothing, doesn't get you there. I might consider Wade soon, but his contract gets real steep. So that left me looking like a homer, and voting for Rubio.
.

I take the opposite approach, because I think that the whole 'the kid's on a rookie contract" is severely overrated, for the reasons you stated - people need to show production for a longer time. And while I could understand Rubio if he came back from the injury well, as someone who has Minnesota as one of his 5 LP teams, he hasn't. At all. Combine that with the fact that he has been horrifically bad at scoring now, and I am slowly starting to sort of wonder if we're seeing another Jay Williams. Rubio to me is easily the worst choice of the guys at the front page, and I'd argue that Bosh, Holliday, Ibaka, and my personal nomination of Tim Duncan should be above him.

[shrink]

V: Da white Howard- Chris Paul went 6th despite his upcoming Free agent status so i dont see why the best center in the league is getting snubbed

N: Ibaka- Cuz he aint bout dis life

More I think about it, the more I think Dwight should have been my vote. He may not be
100% healthy, and he's a headache, but he can be the 2nd most dominant player in the league any given day. Im a big believer in 'what have you done for me lately' but Dwight has a long-standing track record for dominance. Next round I think I'll go Dwight

I don't disagree with any of this, but our Trade Value poll is all about timing. As much as I'm a longterm valuation guy, we're taking a snapshot of what a guy's worth at this second.

On a normal max contract, healthy, I consider Dwight the #3 trade value guy in the NBA. Nobody can come close to doing what he can do on a basketball court. I don't think there's a greater gap between the #1 and #2 guy at any position.

But right now, would a team offer many good assets? I certainly wouldn't. Clearly the back is an issue, but because of Dwight's indecisiveness, I don't think even he knows where he'll play next year.

If we did this trade value poll in the off-season, when Dwight could be sign-and-traded, I think Dwight climbs back up into the Top 5, regardless of injury history or contract. I think that's the only time talking about trading him makes any sense for the Lakers too. But to me, on January 12th, 2013, Dwight Howard -- the elite player that he is -- may not even have Top 25 value. Weird.

[HartfordWhalers]

V: Da white Howard- Chris Paul went 6th despite his upcoming Free agent status so i dont see why the best center in the league is getting snubbed

N: Ibaka- Cuz he aint bout dis life

More I think about it, the more I think Dwight should have been my vote. He may not be
100% healthy, and he's a headache, but he can be the 2nd most dominant player in the league any given day. Im a big believer in 'what have you done for me lately' but Dwight has a long-standing track record for dominance. Next round I think I'll go Dwight

I don't disagree with any of this, but our Trade Value poll is all about timing. As much as I'm a longterm valuation guy, we're taking a snapshot of what a guy's worth at this second.

On a normal max contract, healthy, I consider Dwight the #3 trade value guy in the NBA. Nobody can come close to doing what he can do on a basketball court. I don't think there's a greater gap between the #1 and #2 guy at any position.

But right now, would a team offer many good assets? I certainly wouldn't. Clearly the back is an issue, but because of Dwight's indecisiveness, I don't think even he knows where he'll play next year.

If we did this trade value poll in the off-season, when Dwight could be sign-and-traded, I think Dwight climbs back up into the Top 5, regardless of injury history or contract. I think that's the only time talking about trading him makes any sense for the Lakers too. But to me, on January 12th, 2013, Dwight Howard -- the elite player that he is -- may not even have Top 25 value. Weird.

Even at S&T time, I don't see Dwight getting much. It doesn't give him more years, or more money per year.
The only thing it does is enable him to get to a team that doesn't have cap space. He has zero reason to demand a S&T to Atlanta or Dallas versus just going to them as a straight signing. And they have zero reason to offer a sign and trade, unless they are dumping players they don't want.

And even there its severely limited, becaue the sign and trade restrictions will be in effect:

Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade.

Which means the Nets would need to drop ~10m + Dwights salary to get him in a sign and trade, or in other words send out Brook Lopez + Joe Johnson.

Looking at it, I would actually say that Dwight would be almost worthless at S&T time, definitely not top 5, and not top 25 either. Now, when he signs that next contract he will jump up a lot immediately.

[shrink]

The reason Dwight would have value in the off-season in a sign-and-trade is that the team knows they will have Dwight on their roster for multiple years under the new contract.

If a team gave up assets now for his current deal, those assets could be lost for nothing when the indecisive Howard simply decided he'd rather be elsewhere next year and wouldn't sign with the team that traded for him on January 12th. He could promise to sign at the end of the season, but I don't think anyone could fully trust that promise -- even Howard himself.

[HartfordWhalers]

The reason Dwight would have value in the off-season in a sign-and-trade is that the team knows they will have Dwight on their roster for multiple years under the new contract.

If a team gave up assets now for his current deal, those assets could be lost for nothing when the indecisive Howard simply decided he'd rather be elsewhere next year and wouldn't sign with the team that traded for him on January 12th. He could promise to sign at the end of the season, but I don't think anyone could fully trust that promise -- even Howard himself.

I haven't voted for him now because of the things you mention about now. But having Top 5 value as a sign and trade seems unfathomable for all the same reasons and more.

To review:

--Teams without big payrolls like Brooklyn legally can't sign and trade for him.
--Teams like Atlanta and Dallas that are leading alternative contenders could sign him without giving up anything.
--It does zero for Dwight in salary or years, and actually takes assets away from where he would be considering signing.

Given that, why would anyone give anything for Dwight then? I don't even think S&T time Dwight has top 50 value, no team was a reason and a way to give up much of anything to make signing him part of a sign and trade.

Edit to add: If Dwight did have top 5 value at the end of the season, his value would be top 5 now. You get an all star center and an asset that is still top 5 in value in 5 months -- value now and value later. The reason Dwights value is so low now is because his vaue as a sign and trade is so minimal.

[roc]

V Drummond
N Monroe

[shrink]

The reason Dwight would have value in the off-season in a sign-and-trade is that the team knows they will have Dwight on their roster for multiple years under the new contract.

If a team gave up assets now for his current deal, those assets could be lost for nothing when the indecisive Howard simply decided he'd rather be elsewhere next year and wouldn't sign with the team that traded for him on January 12th. He could promise to sign at the end of the season, but I don't think anyone could fully trust that promise -- even Howard himself.

I haven't voted for him now because of the things you mention about now. But having Top 5 value as a sign and trade seems unfathomable for all the same reasons and more.

To review:

--Teams without big payrolls like Brooklyn legally can't sign and trade for him.
--Teams like Atlanta and Dallas that are leading alternative contenders could sign him without giving up anything.
--It does zero for Dwight in salary or years, and actually takes assets away from where he would be considering signing.

Given that, why would anyone give anything for Dwight then? I don't even think S&T time Dwight has top 50 value, no team was a reason and a way to give up much of anything to make signing him part of a sign and trade.

Edit to add: If Dwight did have top 5 value at the end of the season, his value would be top 5 now. You get an all star center and an asset that is still top 5 in value in 5 months -- value now and value later. The reason Dwights value is so low now is because his vaue as a sign and trade is so minimal.

I think you're missing the point of the timing and uncertainty.

If Dwight Howard woke up tomorrow and said, "Hey, today I'd sign with DAL, LAL, ORL, NYK, or BRK!" .. he's not worth much to any of those teams, because he might change his mind by the end of the season.

If Dwight Howard woke up on July 16th and said, "Hey, today I'd sign with DAL, LAL, ORL, NYK or BRK!" .. he's worth a lot, because the deal could be done before the end of the day and he changes his mind. Value comes just like anything in economics -- different buyers would make competitive offers to truly have his services for the next 4 years.

As for your examples, what we would see is that Brooklyn frantically tries to make other deals to cut salary, DAL can't rely on cap space because LAL wants more and must deal their cap space for trade assets, and heck, LAL might just keep him!

He doesn't have that trade value now because of the timing and uncertainty. Right now, we don't know that he won't wake up July 14th and say, "I will only sign a deal with DAL."

[Texas Chuck]

We know he wont wake up any day and want to sign with Dallas. Why would he? We have nothing to offer except a 1st class organization with a passionate owner willing to spend. And as much as I think Dallas is a great organization for players it simply cant be that much superior (if at all) to Orlando which had better pieces around him already and proved more than willing to spend around him.

We like always will simply be a tool agents use because people know Cuban is a creative/agressive/big-spending owner.

Sorry I know you were just using us as an example but I hate our stupid cap space plan and needed to have a little whiney rant.

[HartfordWhalers]

But again, if Dwight says he will sign with Dallas in july, is there a single reason to give lal anything of value?

No. Same for Atlanta. All of the teams with capspace have zero reason to give lal any value at all.

Signing Dwight outright makes more sense, and gives lal zilch, so it hardly matters if LaL says capspace isn't enough, they would have zero leverage and no one would care what they say, not Dwight and not Dallas or whoever.

[Dr Positivity]

It's not going to matter since only 1 other person is voting for him, but I'm switching my nomination to Paul George. Has the complete package to be a star wing, will be making his first all-star game this year at 22, and he's a great fit in any lineup due to spacing the floor and being able to guard multiple positions. I think he has the chance to be the Pau Gasol to Kevin Durant's Tim Duncan, not nearly as much of a competitive killer mentally has a similar profile in terms of skills/body/feel

[FNQ]

Trade value is subjective, but I define it as the ideal landing scenario for the player - ie the team that wants him the most, that will pay the most.

If Dwight were to be put on the block now, do I think he could fetch more than some of the guys already listed? Oh hell yeah. There are plenty of desperate teams out there that could be willing to roll the dice on him. Houston made a huge effort to land him in the offseason... not saying that Dwight would re-sign, but how much would that affect a desperate team?

I think he's been written off almost entirely because of his situation, but we're still looking at a potential top 2 player when healthy. I don't think he's dropped this far, at least not yet.

[Quackenboss]

Rondo
George

[Village Idiot]

vote: Lillard
nominate: Holiday

[Zubby]

Nominate: Jeremy Lin

I don't know how much HOU's overseas deal is worth to broadcast Rockets games to the Chinese, but I hear that it's huge. I checked the January 3rd All Star ballots, and Lin may pass Chris Paul to be voted in as an All Star

Kobe Bryant (LAL) 1,177,456, Chris Paul (LAC) 651,893, Jeremy Lin (Hou) 605,624, James Harden (Hou) 337,585, Russell Westbrook (OKC) 268,558

I think that too often our RealGM voters talk about production, and if we are trying to match thefactors of trade value that actual GM's would consider, we don't put enough value into marketing.

Individual teams do not make deals to broadcast games overseas... The NBA does that, and like jersey sales the proceeds are divided evenly among all the teams in the league. In the case of jersey sales those are divided among the players evenly.

Teams can profit from sponsors, but the higher paying sponsors will always go to the bigger markets. I think single players have less of an impact of finances than people think.

[theokie]

V. Rondo
N. Ibaka

Rondo's salary boosts his stock up a couple slots higher they he would be if he was being compensated for what he could get on the open market.

[shrink]

Nominate: Jeremy Lin

Individual teams do not make deals to broadcast games overseas... The NBA does that, and like jersey sales the proceeds are divided evenly among all the teams in the league. In the case of jersey sales those are divided among the players evenly.

Teams can profit from sponsors, but the higher paying sponsors will always go to the bigger markets. I think single players have less of an impact of finances than people think.

Thanks for posting. I have never heard anyone say this (can't say I researched it a lot wiith Yao or Lin) but it led me to a great article explaining these things:

http://keepingscore.blogs.time.com/2012/07/19/can-jeremy-lins-appeal-in-china-really-help-houstons-bottom-line/

[JasonStern]

vote: rondo
nominate: bosh

[lewdog]

v - Lillard
ROY and the ROY's contract makes this a no brainer.

n - George
Time to give some love to the face of the successful Pacers.

[Narf]

This is a hard one to vote for. I think I have to go with Wade, he is still a top 10 player in the league and locked up for a while. I would take him over Kobe personally, and it's not like he hasn't won championships on multiple teams.

V: Wade

N: Pekovic

Once I thought about it, this wasn't a hard Nomination. I was going to say Monroe, but there is no comparison between Pek and Monroe as a player right now.

In his 3rd year in the league, Pek has a career .583 TS%, 13.7 ORB% (yes you read that right). The last 2 years he's had over a 20 PER and a .164 WS/48.

Defensively Pek has been above average, and is the best player in the league at "boxing out". In other words, if he wants you to move he moves you (which is also how he gets his offensive rebounds). He's just a beast, and he is a RFA who will be locked up for another 4 years after this year.

He's gotta be right after Marc Gasol in value.