James Harden is a superstar

[UGA Hayes]

Historically, guys who relied on initiating contact for "soft fouls" to create an absurd FTA/FGA ratio (over .5) and had holes in their shot making ability have a tough time scoring consistently in the playoffs.

Could you expound on this a little more with some examples? Thanks.

Iwas about to ask the same thing. Is that statistically true?

[lorak]

Karl Malone, LeBron.

[fatal9]

Historically, guys who relied on initiating contact for "soft fouls" to create an absurd FTA/FGA ratio (over .5) and had holes in their shot making ability have a tough time scoring consistently in the playoffs.

Could you expound on this a little more with some examples? Thanks.

D-Rob, Bosh, 2010 Durant to an extent (he has obviously improved immensely each year with his iso scoring and versatility to get to where he is now) stick out as some examples off the top of my head. Harden last year as well, what happened against the Heat wasn't a coincidence. It's a general concept I believe in. Harden will get to the line no matter what, but foul calls don't come as predictably in the playoffs and vary night to night with how the game is being officiated. Reliable/versatile shot making ability (in conjunction with drawing fouls of course) is very important in the playoffs to give your scoring game more consistency. Harden does have some issues with that as of right now, his shot distribution is still so "either or" when facing a set defense, but he has the skill-set to improve that aspect of his game going forward.

[LarsV8]

Two games ago, the refs were calling NOTHING.

Harden still got 25.

[tsherkin]

Two games ago, the refs were calling NOTHING.

Harden still got 25.

But he WAS also totally useless in the fourth.

[fatal9]

Karl Malone, LeBron.

Yea, Malone and younger LeBron are good examples too. Not necessarily as reliant on fouls percentage wise for their scoring, but the lack of versatility in their scoring repertoire against set defenses made them look really, really bad at times. Harden doesn't have some sort of essential skill issues or anything, but he does need develop a few things and mix up his scoring game more.

[Krodis]

Harden's streak ends at 14, one point short.

[CKRT]

My Internet has been down so I didn't get to catch the game. Looks like Harden was bombing away from 3, didn't get to the line, and turned the ball over 6 times. What happened?

[Krodis]

Rockets have been struggling offensively the last two games. I think they could probably use a rest at this point, but they're not going to get one soon unless McHale pulls a Popovich.

[Doctor MJ]

Karl Malone, LeBron.

Yea, Malone and younger LeBron are good examples too. Not necessarily as reliant on fouls percentage wise for their scoring, but the lack of versatility in their scoring repertoire against set defenses made them look really, really bad at times. Harden doesn't have some sort of essential skill issues or anything, but he does need develop a few things and mix up his scoring game more.

Versatility issues I completely understand being an issue in the playoffs...

[Doctor MJ]

Historically, guys who relied on initiating contact for "soft fouls" to create an absurd FTA/FGA ratio (over .5) and had holes in their shot making ability have a tough time scoring consistently in the playoffs.

Could you expound on this a little more with some examples? Thanks.

D-Rob, Bosh, 2010 Durant to an extent (he has obviously improved immensely each year with his iso scoring and versatility to get to where he is now) stick out as some examples off the top of my head. Harden last year as well, what happened against the Heat wasn't a coincidence. It's a general concept I believe in. Harden will get to the line no matter what, but foul calls don't come as predictably in the playoffs and vary night to night with how the game is being officiated. Reliable/versatile shot making ability (in conjunction with drawing fouls of course) is very important in the playoffs to give your scoring game more consistency. Harden does have some issues with that as of right now, his shot distribution is still so "either or" when facing a set defense, but he has the skill-set to improve that aspect of his game going forward.

...but high FTA/FGA ratios that's really something. Thank you for elaborating. I don't know, there certainly are guys who seem to keep racking up the free throws in the playoffs so I'd have been inclined to say it's only an issue if you lack versatility.

Your point about high variability is interesting. Certainly what you want is to have Plan Bs, Cs, and D's, and presumably if you have those your game will be more consistent. I feel like though you're actually advocating not pursuing FTs as hard as you possibly can because there are more reliable ways to score...but whenever I see a guy who seems unstoppable in the clutch, it's pretty much a given that he's unstoppable because how easily he forces the defense to call fouls, and this certainly does happen in the playoffs too.

[fatal9]

Your point about high variability is interesting. Certainly what you want is to have Plan Bs, Cs, and D's, and presumably if you have those your game will be more consistent. I feel like though you're actually advocating not pursuing FTs as hard as you possibly can because there are more reliable ways to score...but whenever I see a guy who seems unstoppable in the clutch, it's pretty much a given that he's unstoppable because how easily he forces the defense to call fouls, and this certainly does happen in the playoffs too.

Not necessarily. I love Harden's attacking style, it's what makes him the player he is, he should always be in "attack mode". I just think his perimeter scoring game is lacking right now or rather, not being utilized properly yet. Against set defense, the three pointer is too much of a "go to" shot for him, he needs to work his perimeter game closer to the basket (ie. midrange game) so he can be a more reliable shot maker. It will also give him more spots on the floor to create offense for his teammates from (right now trapping him aggressively at the three point line can limit his playmaking). I wasn't painting high FTA/FGA as a bad thing, I was saying that if you don't have enough variability in your scoring game to surround your high FTA/FGA with, then you can end up being a really inconsistent playoff player.

Threes off the dribble are extremely low percentage shots (unless you're Steph Curry or Durant), and there are some good teams who can make him rely heavily on those type of shots. Drawing fouls is great, being a good three point shooter is great, but you need to a bit more variety in your game to succeed as a scorer against set defenses in the playoffs (maybe not even variety, a single efficient "go to" shot you can replicate consistently can go a long way). I think he's a pretty amazing offensive player, but his scoring ability isn't up to his boxscore stats (26.5 ppg on 61 TS%) yet for a couple of reasons, a) because he's playing in a very stat friendly system and b) not enough variability yet. Variability for him might be something that requires more skill work in the off-season or it could be as simple as making an adjustment to his shot distribution, we'll have to wait and see.

[Doctor MJ]

Thanks fatal. Great having your thoughts here.

[bbms]

I think the next step of development for Harden is surely the mid range game, but I'd like to see him getting his midrange shots using screens and mid-post game(he's a strong built guy with 6'11 wingspan, no reason for him not develop a post game). This would make him a more portable scorer. Pull up jumpers aren't something desirable. Fortunately, he's smart enough to see that.

He would instantly be the best offensive shooting guard in the NBA if he made these improvements.

[UGA Hayes]

Two games ago, the refs were calling NOTHING.

Harden still got 25.

But he WAS also totally useless in the fourth.

Yeah but this is such a microanalysis that its kind of useless. Every great player has sucked in a fourth quarter. If you are really focused on a player you are going to fit the argument to your perception. Really every great player playing today with the exception of maybe Dwyane Wade has had the didn't play well in the fourth quarter rep thrown at him at one time or another.

[tsherkin]

Yeah but this is such a microanalysis that its kind of useless. Every great player has sucked in a fourth quarter. If you are really focused on a player you are going to fit the argument to your perception. Really every great player playing today with the exception of maybe Dwyane Wade has had the didn't play well in the fourth quarter rep thrown at him at one time or another.

Right... but I'm neither arguing for nor against Harden, so this is kind of a meaningless response.

The question at hand is what happens when teams tighten up on him defensively and they start forcing him to take a lot of 3s and make it more difficult for him at the rim, especially coupled with the refs swallowing their whistles. Which is kind of what happened. He had a turnover when Rivers stole the ball from him, assisted on a bucket, missed three shots at the rim or close to it (all within 5 feet), got picked by Roger Mason, made a shot in the paint, then split a pair of free throws in a 9-point loss to the Hornets.

Now, that's just part of the story; we see that he was picked twice and was 1/4 from the field while splitting his only 2 free throws. It's a rough night, and everyone has them eventually; he was still GETTING into the paint. But let's look at those shots.

1)

Walked the ball up the court, took a screen to slash into the paint, jumped in seeking contact and didn't get the call, which left him with an only semi-controlled floating jumper from around 5 feet away. Solid move, a Eurostep, but if he'd pulled up at the bottom of the circle, he'd have had a much cleaner look. That shot would have tied the game.

2)

Isolation, great move, got all the way to the rim, blew a strong-handed layup. Earlier in the game, like the play above, might have gotten a call, but didn't this time. Pretty clean look, though, just missed. Hard to argue with this shot.

3)

Iso, drove, tried to finish against 3 Hornets, missed a layup on the right side but Patterson cleaned it up. Didn't really cost them anything, another pretty good move.

4)

A steal outletted to him for a layup in transition. Notice, though, success in transition and struggles in the half-court.

It's not wrong to say that Harden could stand to use a little more diversity to his game; he doesn't have much of a game in the top half of the key, he certainly doesn't show a ton of post-up game and his long two is really unimpressive. It's smart that he doesn't use it a LOT, but it'd be nice if he could get more shots around the elbow sometimes, you know? Houston's roster context is uninspiring as far as permitting him to play off-ball a lot because Lin is either red-hot or totally useless much of the time and there really isn't anyone else who can do much of anything on that team on a consistent basis offensively, so I get that he's taking a lot of unassisted threes, but it'd be nice to see a bit more diversity. Could have said much the same thing of a younger Dwyane Wade, though, who did basically nothing but take mid-screens and slash to the rim until he learned how to shoot mid-range Js as well. Harden is on a similar path, so there's not much reason to be worried, especially given how much better a shooter he is than Wade has ever been.

That said, he's not the physical specimen a younger Wade was.

I'll give you some examples of Harden's splits (all teams with better-than-average DRTGs):

2 G vs ATL: 36.5 ppg, ridiculous efficiency (> 58% FG, 40% 3P, 15 FTA/g)
2 G vs BOS: 22.5 ppg, 52.8% TS, 7.5 FTA/g
2 G vs CHI: 27.0 ppg, 70.2% TS (13 FTA/g)
1 G vs DEN: 15.0 ppg, 41.5% TS, 7 FTA (shot 5/15 FG, 5/7 FT, 0/5 3P)
2 G vs MEM: 24.5 ppg, 60.2% TS, 11 FTA/g
1 G vs MIL: 29 ppg, 68.8% TS, 7 FTA, 2/4 3P, 11/18 FG
1 G vs MIN: 30 ppg, 60.9% TS, 6 FTA, 2/5 3P, 11/22 FG
2 G vs OKC: 21.0 ppg, 47.7% TS, 9/33 FG, 12.5 FTA/g, 4/12 3P
2 G vs SAS: 31.0 ppg, 66.2% TS, 10 FTA/g, 6/10 3P
1 G vs WAS: 31.0 ppg, 64.7% TS, 9 FTA/g, 2/6 3P

16 G, so not a large sample, but you can see that he typically does his work with 3s and FTs.

His rim finishing percentage of 66.7% is bloody marvelous given how few assists he gets on those shots and of course he's assisted on around 45% of his 3s, which is about HALF of what most really good, prolific 3pt shooters put up, give or take 5%. He takes about 2.78 shots from 16-23 feet and makes ~ 1.03 (37/100, so exactly 37%, which isn't great), but at 18.9% assisted. He's brutally ineffective and doesn't use the elbow very much at all (less than 1.0 attempts per game at 35.7% FG). He's basically a guaranteed miss from 3-9 feet (so on those leaping Eurostep shots where he doesn't get fouled), at 29.2%.

He needs to firm up some of those shots, because a lot of the really good scorers go to those when they are having trouble getting good looks from three or against great defenses that pack the paint and tighten up against 3s. Houston runs a lot, which is nice, but against more set situations, he does seem to struggle a bit. He's fast, Harden's explosiveness is underrated a touch and if he starts his possession 35 feet from the basket and comes to a screen with a full head of steam, good luck catching up to him, he's getting into the paint. But he needs to have a counter move, he needs to work a pull-up jumper and a floater a little more frequently and rely a touch less on drawing contact, because it's not a consistent thing at the end of games and we saw a good example of that against the Hornets.

Is it a critical failing?

Lord no, dude's 23 years old and having a season right now that would leave him one of the best scorers in the game.

Just to frame things a little, though, for the sake of reference, let's talk about 3-9 and 10-15 footers in terms of volume and efficiency from other elite scorers. Let's talk about Durant, Lebron, Wade and Kobe.

Harden

3-9: 2.47 FGA/g, 29.2% FG
10-15: 0.78 FGA/g, 35.7% FG

Durant:

2013

3-9: 2.89 FGA/g, 44.2% FG
10-15: 3.22 FGA/g, 54.3% FG

2012

3-9: 4.05 FGA/g, 44.9% FG
10-15: 4.67 FGA/g, 45.5% FG

Wade:

2013

3-9: 3.3 FGA/g, 40.4% FG
10-15: 2.07, 33.9%

2012

3-9: 5.33, 44.4%
10-15: 4.06, 41.2%

Lebron:

2013

3-9: 2.68, 46.2%
10-15: 2.15, 42.5%

2012

3-9: 4.1, 46.5%
10-15: 3.6, 48.0%

Kobe

2013

3-9: 3.83, 42.0%
10-15: 3.14, 50.4%

2012

3-9: 4.62, 41.8%
10-15: 5.41, 42.4%

See what I'm saying?

This kind of aligns a little with the versatility comments that others are making about Harden. Obviously, his excellent efficiency comes from his shot selection, which is wise. He really is like Wade with a 3pt shot. But now and again, you need to diversify so that you can maintain efficacy against different types of defenses and when the refs turn against you (especially on the road). He is, for example, averaging roughly a full FTA/g less on the road than at home (~ 9.5 on the road versus ~ 10.5 at home).

It's not so much that he was bad in the fourth quarter against New Orleans; I'm not calling him a player who folds in the crunch, or even a guy who isn't clutch. He's a dastardly player to have to guard and two of those misses could have gone if he'd been a little more poised or a touch luckier. They were both good looks that just didn't go. But the first shot? That's a good example of an area where he blows goats if he isn't getting fouled, it's very much a get-fouled-or-turn-it-over situation the majority of the time, and that can be problematic at times, especially when you're behind.

Again, 23 years old. First year as a starter; these aren't hammer-blows to his quality of play, they're just realities of developing into a primary scoring threat, that's all. It is simply true that he needs to expand his game. It was, at one time or another, true of both Lebron and Wade as well, so it's hardly a horrible situation.

[rrravenred]

BTW, on the high-FTR players in the playoffs...

I did some numbers since 2005 (i.e. the new rules) on high FTA players (7+) and how their games changed in the playoffs.

Surprisingly, there's little variation by FTR. High FTR players like Dwight, Shaq or Wade are just as likely to have a drop or rise in the raw FTA numbers in the playoffs as low FTR players like T-Mac or Bryant.

Now to be clear, this is based on only 66 Player/seasons and discounts skillset and playstyle, but it's interesting that a "common sense" assumption doesn't seem supported by the (somewhat limited) available evidence.

[Krodis]

The Rockets could probably do a better job of getting Harden good looks off-ball. They don't run a ton of plays, and Lin and Douglas have a tendency to get tunnel vision towards the rim on drives.

[tsherkin]

The Rockets could probably do a better job of getting Harden good looks off-ball. They don't run a ton of plays, and Lin and Douglas have a tendency to get tunnel vision towards the rim on drives.

Yes, and they run hot and cold. Plus Lin, his December aside, is generally a lower-efficiency player to begin with because he really isn't a good 3pt shooter at all and he takes a decent volume of them. And because he's a turnover hound, too. That team in general really isn't a strong offensive squad, so it makes life more difficult for Harden.

[tsherkin]

The Rockets could probably do a better job of getting Harden good looks off-ball. They don't run a ton of plays, and Lin and Douglas have a tendency to get tunnel vision towards the rim on drives.

Yes, and they run hot and cold. Plus Lin, his December aside, is generally a lower-efficiency player to begin with because he really isn't a good 3pt shooter at all and he takes a decent volume of them. And because he's a turnover hound, too. That team in general really isn't a strong offensive squad, so it makes life more difficult for Harden.