The Lebron Thread

[OptimusOne6]

Yeah not too impressed tonight.

Also, Miami isn't getting anywhere near a championship with that defense. It's not happening.

The defense will pick it's intensity in the playoffs. I wouldn't be concerned about that. The only thing that the Heat should be concerned about is rebounding, maybe things will change when LBJ plays more PF in the playoffs but I have no idea how this team just got so much worse rebounding in the past 2 years when they practically play the same players.

[IG2]

Still hasn't recovered clearly. Just a complete lack of activity in the 3rd quarter there. He really should have sat out to start this road trip

Hmm, I thought he looked world's better compared to the previous 3 games. About 85-90% of what he showed before the Pacers game. The passiveness in the 3rd qtr with his team falling apart was very frustrating, I'll admit, but other than that, I thought he played a very good game.

The real issue is that pretty much everyone on Miami outside of him is struggling. Wade's a far cry from the player he was from 05-11. Bosh is just as soft as his reputation. The shooters are in a slump and they have no size. Add their tendency to coast a lot and it's easy to see why they're a struggling team.

[ardee]

The load he's carrying is ridiculous I know it's been said multiple times, but wasn't the point of coming to Miami to relieve him of having to bear such a burden?

[PCProductions]

I don't know what it is about other teams when they play Miami but it seems as if the Heat bring out the best in other teams' shooting. Lebron played efficiently and aggressively, but he still doesn't look quite recovered.

I wonder how the Heat will do against my Warriors on Wednesday. I'm thinking he's going to be pretty pissed off about these losses and take it out on us, personally.

[SideshowBob]

Let's take a quick look at Miami's Four Factors on Defense in the past 3 seasons (rank in parenthesis).

Code: Select all

Season    eFG%       TOV%       DRB%       FT/FTA      DRTG
2010-11  .475 (4)   .126 (26)  .755 (4)   .223 (11)    103.5 (5)

2011-12  .479 (9)   .158 (3)   .739 (10)  .200 (12)    100.2 (4)

2012-13  .486 (12)  .137 (16)  .720 (25)  .205 (16)    105.9 (17)

So while rebounding has been the biggest issue, it hasn't been the only issue. They've dropped in each of the 4 factors from last season in rankings and %s. They aren't creating turnovers at anywhere near the same rate as last season, and what's significant there is that there is not strong correlation between DRB% and TOV%. Their perimeter defense is clearly not what it was last year. The eFG% and FT/FTA drops go somewhat hand-in-hand. They have no inside presence that either A) contests shots near the basket or B) scares opposing guards into even getting deep into the paint. Generally, good defensive teams that lack an inside presence (see 2010-2012 Heat, 08-10 Cavs) make up for this by having an exceptionally strong and chaos-inducing perimeter defense. Prevent penetration, recover quickly, be disciplined with rotations, cover the WHOLE floor well, and you can create an elite defense. However, as evidenced already by the TOV%, the Heat haven't been doing that.

To compensate, especially of late, we've actually seen Lebron be all over the place on defense (see last night). He's been trying his best to cover for the rest of team, make up for poor recovery, missed rotations, etc. He's putting far too much effort in for results that aren't showing. Miami this season, has been the worst defensive team with Lebron OFF the floor (108.7 DRTG +3.4 LA) that Lebron has EVER played on. They've been so bad that even with Lebron on the floor they're only being lifted to about league average level (Spo's lineups and general team complacency have not helped either), and I'm starting to think that THIS is the catalyst for his stamina issues this season.

[SideshowBob]

I expect assertiveness tonight. He's got to be hella pissed at this point, considering how they've done on this trip thus far. Expect strong games tonight and tomorrow night.

[IG2]

Don't like how he's moving in this game. Looked much better against Utah.

[IG2]

Well, good thing he's such a good jump shooter this season, because he's slow as **** today.

[CJ_18]

23/9/6 in the beginning of the 3rd.

He is moving slow but he's doing just fine nonetheless. I hope the Heat can carry this into LA tomorow and finish this trip strong and get back some of the credibility they've lost recently.

[SideshowBob]

Looked explosive catching the ball on the move to the basket on one play early on, but otherwise looked slow. Jumper inside the arc looked great, but I've got to say, he's really diminished at creating in the mid-range off the dribble compared to 2010 and 2011, his set-ups look pretty awkward. 3 point shot was clearly off.

Miami and Lebron's defense looked solid tonight against a relatively smaller team. Put up a DRTG of 78.8, and it was under 70 with Lebron on the floor (who's defense hasn't been nearly as recognized by the media this season due to Miami's team defensive struggles).

Expect a bigger game tomorrow night.

[SideshowBob]

I've been going through the numbers for the 2012 playoffs again, and I think I didn't really grasp how good Lebron and Miami were despite how "grind-it-out" the run looked. Just note that I used two methods for playoff SRS calculation (one just uses team SRS values from the regular season, while the second adjusts for team play in the previous series), and I list both.

Overall (23 games)

SRS: 10.37 or 10.95
ORTG: 110.5 (+5.9 league average)
DRTG: 102.4 (-2.2 league average)
James: 30.3/9.7/5.6 on 57.6% TS

With Bosh (14 games)

SRS: 12.90 or 13.41
ORTG: 112.3 (+7.7)
DRTG: 101.7 (-2.9)
James: 30.0/9.8/5.6 on 58.2% TS

Pre-Indiana Game 4 (8 games)

SRS: 9.59 or 9.82
ORTG: 105.9 (+1.3)
DRTG: 97.4 (-7.2)
James: 27.6/7.8/5.1 on 56.2% TS

Post-Indiana Game 4 (15 games)

SRS: 10.79 or 11.56
ORTG: 113.0 (+8.4)
DRTG: 105.0 (+0.4)
James: 31.7/10.8/5.9 on 58.3% TS

IND Game 4 - BOS Game 7 (10 games)

SRS: 10.96 or 11.68
ORTG: 112.1 (+7.5)
DRTG: 102.2 (-2.4)
James: 33.3/11.1/5.1 on 59.4% TS

Wade Indiana Hot-Stretch (3 games)

SRS: 19.93 or 20.54
ORTG: 119.0 (+7.5)
DRTG: 99.7 (-2.4)
Wade: 33.0/7.3/3.7 on 64.4% TS
James: 32.8/11.3/8.0 on 61.3% TS

Miami was essentially just under a +11 team over the course of the playoffs, and close to +13 with Bosh playing AND when the going was at its roughest. Lebron put up 32/6 on 58% TS anchoring a +8 offense playing 10 of 15 of those games against top 5 defense. Just a phenomenal performance, and I see now that I was personally underrating his 2012 season big time. I'm not willing to call it his best, but its certainly higher in my mind now than it was back in April and June.

[ThatsWhatIShved]

I've seen a lot of discussion on LeBron's defense on the PC board, but no definitive post on it yet. Can anyone do a breakdown of it? I mean, I think we all know the basics - the versatility, court coverage, his great help defense... Is his impact as close as a non-Scottie perimeter player ever going to get to an elite defensive big?

Not even close. James has never ever been a top 50 defender in a season, let alone alltime. He's never even been the best defender on his own team. Good defender, but far from the Iggy/Allen/George/AK47/Johnson/Bradley/Mbah Moute/etc. tier.

[Greatness]

I've seen a lot of discussion on LeBron's defense on the PC board, but no definitive post on it yet. Can anyone do a breakdown of it? I mean, I think we all know the basics - the versatility, court coverage, his great help defense... Is his impact as close as a non-Scottie perimeter player ever going to get to an elite defensive big?

Not even close. James has never ever been a top 50 defender in a season, let alone alltime. He's never even been the best defender on his own team. Good defender, but far from the Iggy/Allen/George/AK47/Johnson/Bradley/Mbah Moute/etc. tier.

I've seen some crazy statements on realgm, but this might be the craziest yet.

[TheChosen618]

I've seen a lot of discussion on LeBron's defense on the PC board, but no definitive post on it yet. Can anyone do a breakdown of it? I mean, I think we all know the basics - the versatility, court coverage, his great help defense... Is his impact as close as a non-Scottie perimeter player ever going to get to an elite defensive big?

Not even close. James has never ever been a top 50 defender in a season, let alone alltime. He's never even been the best defender on his own team. Good defender, but far from the Iggy/Allen/George/AK47/Johnson/Bradley/Mbah Moute/etc. tier.

Who exactly was a better defender than Lebron was in the 2009 and 2010 Cavs?

I don't even think you can make an argument there was a better defender alongside him.

He was quite clearly the best defensive player on those Heat teams too. Lebron defended the best perimeter players better than Battier and Wade did in that 2012 playoff run.

[GSP]

Varejao was better defender than Lebron so was Ben Wallace and Ilgauskas. Lebron mightve been the best defender in 2010 tho maybe Joel was better.

[TheChosen618]

Varejao was better defender than Lebron so was Ben Wallace and Ilgauskas. Lebron mightve been the best defender in 2010 tho maybe Joel was better.

Are you kidding? Varejao is the only one that made sense at least for 2010. He wasn't that good of a defender in prior seasons, hence why he only made the all-defensive team that season.

The corpse of Ben Wallace? Big Z? Are you trolling?

[IG2]

That was a sweet performance. Probably my favorite this season, given how much people were looking forward to tonight's game. Moved better than he did last night, but what I really liked was his resolve in the 4th. Was bricking jumpers all game, but suddenly started knocking them down when it mattered. That was complete mental mastery.

And does he own Kobe's soul or what? Has flat out outplayed him in career H2H meetings.

[SideshowBob]

Well that was probably the best offensive regular season game he's played in a Miami uniform, without even glancing at the boxscore. That's the most active and engaged he's been in initiating offense all game long for himself and for the rest of the team. From quarters 1-3, he could not buy a single jumper but he managed to not only stay active, but consistently create for himself and go 13/20. Fourth quarter was a different story of course, he just magically found the jumper and held confidence in it. Awesome.

Points by quarter:
1st - 12
2nd - 6
3rd - 11
4th - 10

I doubt you can more than 5 Miami games with a quarterly scoring distribution like that. The fact that he can just turn up to this level seemingly at will now just really has me looking forward to the postseason. I'm really starting to believe that we're going to see 09 level offensive dominance again once April rolls around, even in terms of volume.

[JordansBulls]

Well that was probably the best offensive regular season game he's played in a Miami uniform, without even glancing at the boxscore. That's the most active and engaged he's been in initiating offense all game long for himself and for the rest of the team. From quarters 1-3, he could not buy a single jumper but he managed to not only stay active, but consistently create for himself and go 13/20. Fourth quarter was a different story of course, he just magically found the jumper and held confidence in it. Awesome.

Points by quarter:
1st - 12
2nd - 6
3rd - 11
4th - 10

I doubt you can more than 5 Miami games with a quarterly scoring distribution like that. The fact that he can just turn up to this level seemingly at will now just really has me looking forward to the postseason. I'm really starting to believe that we're going to see 09 level offensive dominance again once April rolls around, even in terms of volume.

Lebron is always pumped up playing against Kobe though.

[starvinmarvin17]

Picture 09 Lebron with Miami lebron mindset and skill level. Man can't wait for the playoffs