So I don't know if it's been documented somewhere (that I missed) but I was just looking over our cap numbers for next season. In my boredom I was looking some possible paths we may take into consideration. My source is storytellers:
http://storytellerscontracts.com/As far a hard numbers go, after extending rookie options we have 7 players under contract for next season: Kemba, Sessions, MKG, JT, Tyrus, Biz, and Haywood. That brings our initial (known) commitments for 2013-14 to 26.8 million. (The cap is expected to be in the 58-60 range).
And then the other 7 players are various forms of expirings:
Hendo (QO)
Gordon (PO)
Turtle
Mully (QO)
Warrick (TO)
Adrien (Not Fully Guaranteed)
Diop
Of those 7, let's assume Gordon exercises his PO (which increases our cap hit by 50%), we decline The Drim's TO, we keep Adrien and his sub-1 million salary, and we let Turtle and Diop walk. This brings our cap number from 26.8 to about 40.9, still about 17-19 below the projected cap number.
Now the parts that are much more difficult to predict...
1. Do we keep Hendo? (4.3 million QO): His market value is probably a little south of DeRozan's, but that's not too comforting when you consider DeRozan just got 9.5 per. Is Hendo really worth 8 million or so? I'm not so sure. Perhaps the number of shooting guards in the upcoming FA class (Mayo, Ellis, Iguodala, etc.) will force his pricetag down a bit.
2. Do we keep Mully? (3.3 million QO): Mully's price is a tough one to peg. Yeah, he's a defensive liability, but he's a very athletic big and that alone will drive his price up a bit. When you look at this year's class of FA bigs, he's not that far down the list IMO. You have Dwight and Bynum who are gonna max out, then you have 2nd level guys like Josh Smith, West, Millsap, Jefferson, Pekovic who will all be paid handsomely as well. After that? Do you want an experienced journeyman? (Jamison, Brand, Diaw, Odom, Kaman). Or do you want to go for a younger guy with potential? (Hickson, Hansbrough, Mozgov, Splitter...Mully). It probably makes the most sense to restrict him and let the market determine his value...all the while we can entertain the idea of a few other bigs (Jefferson, Millsap, Pek, Hickson, etc.) and if nothing materializes we'll be able to match any offer for Mullens.
3. Do we keep Tyrus? (8.7 next season, 9.4 in 14-15, expires in 15-16): Our last amnesty-eligible (amnestiable?) player. We can pull the trigger either this or next offseason, but I kinda doubt we will (at least this year). For now, he's keeping us above the minimum, but perhaps we decide to make a few moves this year and his cap space prevents us from doing so. I do wonder though if we have a relatively quiet offseason, in preparation for the 2014 draft, and then amnesty Tyrus next season before making a run at some of the FAs available next offseason (when we should have a ton of cap space).
So if we were to keep Tyrus, and keep Hendo and Mully via their QOs we'd be at about 48.5 million. Still about 10-12 under the cap; but if we extend them (let's say spending 14 million on them combined) we would only have about 3-5 million in space with only 11 players under contract. Of course you can extend one and not the other but there's several other scenarios I could continue to harp on, I just wanted a place to put all my scattered thoughts down
