Pacers 2014

[pacers70]

There has been a lot of talk about trading Tyler, Green and Granger. Here is my opinion of what the Pacers plan is. I don't know how they are going to get there, but here is the roster I think they will be trying to get to start the 2014-15 season.

First the players that are all ready under contract:

Hibbert......$14.9 million
Hill................8
Ian................4
Green............3.5
Plumlee.........1.2
OJ.................0.9

That totals 6 players and $32.5 million in salary.

They will have their 1st round draft choices of 2013 and 2014. Using $1.5 million per choice will increase the roster to 8 players and $35.5 million.

They will have either their 2nd round draft picks from 2013 and 2014 or a couple of low cost FA's or a combination. Using $1 million per spot will increase the roster to 10 players and $37.5 million.

They will resign Paul George. He will get a contract similar to Hibbert's. Using an even $14 million will bring the roster to 11 players and $51.5 million.

The Pacers will either want to resign West or perhaps look for a younger PF like Millsap. In any case it will cost them pretty much the same. In my opinion, they could get West for something like $14 million the first year and $10 million for 3 years after that. For this example, I'll just use $12 million per year. The roster would now stand at 12 players and $63.5 million.

Finally, the Pacers will resign Lance Stephenson. They could probably get him for $5 million per year. You are now looking at a 13 man roster and a payroll of $68.5 million. They Pacers have a pretty good roster and they stay under the luxury tax.

[Jake0890]

$14 millions for David West? I doubt it. Isn't his current contract $10 million? And he's not getting any younger.

[Hoop Hunter]

If your math is right, sounds really good to me. Unless there's a trade offer we just can't refuse, highly unlikely though.

I like this team going forward with the same core for at least 2 more seasons after this one, we have a great starting 5. We need to let them continue to grow as a team. A veteran team with great chemistry are the only hopes of us being a contender and competing against the super star teams in the near future.

added: I agree with jake, sure hope we can get West for much less.

[pacers70]

I agree West isn't getting any younger but I think he still has 3-5 good years left in him. The contract he signed with the Pacers was less than what he normally would have gotten because he was coming off an injury.

I think a PF of West's quality, even at his age will probably be able to get $10-15 million per year. The Pacers would probably be able to keep him if they front loaded his contract by paying around $14 million the first year and $9-10 million the next three. That will free up money to resign George.

If I am wrong and they can get him cheaper, I'll be dancing in the streets...especially if that means they could keep Granger.

[Jake0890]

What I would do:

Resign West no matter the cost.
Resign George no matter the cost.
Resign Lance Stephenson.
Resign Augustin on a short term contract.

Trade Tyler Hansbrough + a pick to get a player like Kenneth Faried or Jordan Hill.

Let Pendergraph's contract expire, and don't even make an offer. Let him go.

Look for a Millsap or Al Jefferson in free agency to move West to a spot on the bench.
Trade Gerald Green for a pick, sign O.J. Mayo, J.R. Smith, Nick Young, or Kevin Martin.

Basically, I just want to revamp the bench.

[Gremz]

I wouldn't be surprised if West got a two year $20m extension, I wouldn't be too enthusiastic with 3 years though.

Someone will probably throw a Max at George unless we can sneak in an earlier extension.

Granger? Who knows. Ideally I'd like to see him flipped during the offseason for some serious bench depth. A decent PF & SG combo would interest me.

I'd like to keep tabs on Josh Smith this offseason, he could be a really nice fit here.

[Moooose]

I'd be glad if we can re-sign West to a similar contract, $10 mil a year for 2 years.

[lukekarts]

Because of the commitment around the young core - Hibbert / George / Hill; you guys are going to have little flexibility to improve.

Realistically, your best bet is going to be to hope Granger comes back close to last years form, and look to trade him for a younger scorer who you feel could be better in the long run. Don't think twice about trading draft picks because in the 15-20 range, you're unlikely to find a franchise changer.

Possible moves could be:

- Granger for Barnes & Biedrens (possible, maybe unlikely)
- Granger to the Wizards for their upcoming pick & filler (Ariza)
- Granger to Houston for young pieces and their pick (if lotto)
- Granger to the Clippers for Bledsoe & Butler
- Granger to the Grizzlies for Gay (I wouldn't advocate this but it could be considered)
- Granger to the 76ers for their pick & filler

... just a few suggestions of what sort of deals I think Indy should be after.

Beyond that, you'd be best suited to re-signing West (2 years $10m per year) and aiming to get a guy like JJ Redick for the MLE.

The upcoming draft doesn't scream superstar potential but a pick in the 5-10 range could be quite useful. There is a lot of potential around guys like McLemore, Bennett, Goodwin - enough to take a chance on IMO.

[Gremz]

Personally I'm not enamored with moving Granger for a pick at this point. I'd hope the Pacers look to move him for packages that can bolster both units. I saw an idea with Portland which netted us Wes Matthews and Hickson for Granger. Something like that would be ideal for this squad.

Now obviously Hickson's one year deal would prevent that specific trade from getting done, but you get the general idea.

Bledsoe and Butler isn't bad, but I'd really be looking for a legit 2 guard in any deal with Danny. There's little point taking George away from the SF spot now as he's excelled rather quickly.

I do like Barnes, but once again the problem arises with shifting George.

Gay is tough. Tough contract to swallow really, and while he's playing good ball I think he's peaked out. Not sure it's worth taking on bonus years when Danny is fairly solid.

[Wizop]

I think you'd be hard pressed to trade Granger for anyone that would play better than he can on the first unit or get a throw in with any more second unit potential than Lance. unless we totally fall apart in the playoffs, I'm playing the hand we have.

[pacers33granger]

Personally I'm not enamored with moving Granger for a pick at this point. I'd hope the Pacers look to move him for packages that can bolster both units. I saw an idea with Portland which netted us Wes Matthews and Hickson for Granger. Something like that would be ideal for this squad.

Now obviously Hickson's one year deal would prevent that specific trade from getting done, but you get the general idea.

Bledsoe and Butler isn't bad, but I'd really be looking for a legit 2 guard in any deal with Danny. There's little point taking George away from the SF spot now as he's excelled rather quickly.

I do like Barnes, but once again the problem arises with shifting George.

Gay is tough. Tough contract to swallow really, and while he's playing good ball I think he's peaked out. Not sure it's worth taking on bonus years when Danny is fairly solid.

I'd be a fan of the Blazers deal. Matthews would be great on this team, but we'd just be renting Hickson. Would we really want to essentially trade Granger for just Matthews?

It's not feasible really anymore with Calderon's resurgence, but the best deal I've seen is Granger for Calderon/Ross.

[8305]

To Wiz's point do we really know that Ross is any better than Lance?

A while back I saw this three team trade on the trade board:
Indiana in Lowry out Granger
Memphis in Granger out Gay
Toronto in Gay out Lowry
I know you need some additional pieces to even out the money but this solves issues for each team. Toronto gets a still relatively young potential go to guy. Memphis has basically the same skill level team but gets under the cap. Indiana clears the way for George to play exclusively at the 3 while upgrading their backcourt. And, everything I read about Lowry indicates he'd be a really good fit on the Pacers. Tough, under-rated guy who plays with a chip on his shoulder. A Hill Lowry backcourt with Lance coming off the bench would be very solid.

[pacers33granger]

Wasn't lots of the issues with Lowry in Memphis and Houston because he was unhappy coming off the bench? Seems to be the same reason Toronto would move him now. I like Lowry quite a bit, but there's no way Hill should be coming off the bench and I don't like the idea of a Hill/Lowry starting backcourt.

[8305]

Wasn't lots of the issues with Lowry in Memphis and Houston because he was unhappy coming off the bench? Seems to be the same reason Toronto would move him now. I like Lowry quite a bit, but there's no way Hill should be coming off the bench and I don't like the idea of a Hill/Lowry starting backcourt.

Interesting thread on the Toronto board about Lowry. Clearly some don't think much of him. There are a few others who acknowledge that the Raps aren't very good and that is part of the problem. I think there were problems in Memphis between him and Conley and moving Lowry became necessary. To his credit there has never been anything handed to him and the resulting chip appears to have served him well. That's a nice fit with the attitude Vogel wants his team to have.

I'm not opposed to a Hill/Lowry starting backcourt. Detroit many years ago essentially went with two point/combo guards (Thomas and Dumars). The Pacer offensive system doesn't seem to necessitate a pure pg. Two guys who can defend the pg position would be a luxury very few teams have. I don't know about Lowry but George Hill can defend the 2.

[Wizop]

I have an online friendship with a fan from Toronto that goes all the way back to the CompuServe sports forum. we email a few times a year and he's always very well connected with the Raptors. his story is that this is about the third time they've had a young point guard they expected to start only to have Calderon make expendable. Lowry will probably move on but I don't see him as an answer to anything. Augustine did look terrible in November but he is a different player here in January. shooting guard minutes are going to contract when Danny is back and PG moves there. OJ is no longer a deer in headlights either and the only thing keeping Lance from scoring is that he understands he's the fifth option with the first unit.

oh, my friend was very high on McGuire and wanted him to start there as a defensive stopper. interesting that with Green out last night he didn't see the court. OJ did and Lance played some 3. maybe McGuire would have been called on more had Houston played a bigger lineup with a 3 who was too big for Lance to guard.

[8305]

Thinking more specifically about 2014 the math gets pretty tough. Hibbert, George and Hill wil cost about 38 mil. I expect David West will have been resigned for at least another 10 mil. per year. If Stephenson'strong play continues I could see him commanding 6 mil. Another 8 mil is committed to Mahimni and Green. That's 62 mil before Granger and the rest of the roster. The math really works against keeping Danny. I don't think he gets traded this year. Cap problems don't kick in until Paul George comes off his rookie deal.

Pacers could look at it two ways. Give it everything you have during the two year window this year and next (keep Granger through the term of his contract). Or this summer, draft day or thereafter look to move Danny for the best deal out there that reduces salary. More than likely on court value won't match.

Augustine and Hansbrough will be gone replaced by cheaper alternatives. I could see the Pacers paying someone to take Green off their hands.

[Starkiller]

if we could land Eric Bledsoe in some kind of deal with the Clippers then let's do it. That kid is going to be special, real special. But as long as we keep Paul George no matter the cost, we'll be in good shape.