Doctor MJ wrote:Let me put the question slightly differently:
How many championship teams have had a primary scorer who is not a on-ball dominant player? TONS. Doesn't mean that Durant has proven himself to be perfectly without concern. He still has a lot to do but focusing on the fact that those scorers didn't look like Durant misses the point.
Forget about 3rd in ORtg. The team is a 110 ORtg team in an sporting league where 115 ORtg is well established as a gold standard for the RS, and where teams go beyond that in the PS at times because their stars play more minutes. Heck, LeBron's CAVS reached greater heights without anyone anywhere near as good as Wade or Bosh. The entire point of going to Miami was that he felt like he didn't have good enough teammates, and he chose a place with two stars known for their offense.
Any analysis now that says what they are doing is plenty good is forgiving legit issues simply because the team actually won a title. They weren't supposed to win a title, they were supposed to be GOAT level. They were supposed to make it look easy. They were supposed to win not 6, not 7...titles.
Now, I understand the perspective where one says "That was unrealistic. That LeBron didn't understand this says nothing about how good he actually is.", but the fact is it's just not that hard to come up with teams that would dwarf the offensive production of the Heat...and yet at this point it's kind of hard to think about LeBron-based teams that would do it that at all easy to assemble. I call that a "ceiling".
But Doc last year, in the postseason at least, they were GOAT level, if we're willing to make adjustments for the league environment rather than just looking at the raw ORTG (which inherently makes sense, if we're trying to compare the quality of individual offenses across seasons). Furthermore they played like a 11 SRS team throughout the playoffs, and if we only include the games played WITH Bosh (injured and healthy) they played like a 13 SRS team.
Overall, for the playoffs, they put up a 109.6 ORTG, which is +5.0 against the league average defense, but they didn't play against league average defenses, they played against an average expected DRTG of 101.2. That 109.6 is +8.4 above expected offensive performance level, and that looks close to GOAT level to me. From there, if we remove the games Bosh missed, its a 112.3 ORTG against an average DRTG of 101.3, which is +11.0.
We could even break it down series by series:
NYK: 113.2 ORTG against 101.0 (#5) expected DRTG (+12.2)
IND: 106.3 ORTG against 103.1 (#9) expected DRTG (+3.2)
BOS: 109.1 ORTG against 98.2 (#1) expected DRTG (+10.9)
OKC: 114.9 ORTG against 103.2 (#10) expected DRTG (+11.7)
Overall: 109.6 ORTG against 101.2 expected DRTG (+8.4)
With Bosh: 112.3 ORTG against 101.3 expected DRTG (+11.0)
So, outside of the Indiana series (Bosh missing, Wade struggling in the first 3 games) they were playing close to a +12 level on JUST offense, and that's considering the fact that all 4 of the teams they faced were top 10 defensively. Against the weakest defensive team they played (OKC) they exploded for a 115 ORTG (115.8 with Lebron on the floor).
Even the Indiana series is a tale of two halves. In the first three games (with Bosh playing only 16 minutes in the first, and Wade struggling from the field in games 1-3) they managed a 93.6 ORTG. Wade gets his knee drained before Game 4 and him and James go off in tandem in the last 3 games and Miami maintains a 119 ORTG in the last 3.
Now, for comparisons sake, let's take a look at some of the best playoff offenses of the 3-point era.
91 Bulls:NYK: 115.6 ORTG against 107.3 expected DRTG (+8.3)
PHI: 119.1 ORTG against 108.1 expected DRTG (+11.0)
DET: 121.4 ORTG against 104.6 expected DRTG (+16.8)
LAL: 115.9 ORTG against 105.0 expected DRTG (+10.9)
Overall: 117.2 ORTG against 106.2 expected DRTG (+11.9)
87 Lakers:DEN: 125.1 ORTG against 110.2 expected DRTG (+14.9)
GSW: 121.9 ORTG against 111.2 expected DRTG (+10.7)
SEA: 116.8 ORTG against 110.0 expected DRTG (+6.8)
BOS: 118.0 ORTG against 106.8 expected DRTG (+11.2)
Overall: 119.9 ORTG against expected 109.3 DRTG (+10.6)
86 CelticsCHI: 121.6 ORTG against expected 112.4 DRTG (+9.2)
ATL: 114.1 ORTG against expected 105.6 DRTG (+9.4)
MIL: 116.0 ORTG against expected 102.7 DRTG (+13.3)
HOU: 112.2 ORTG against expected 107.6 DRTG (+4.6)
Overall: 115.0 ORTG against expected 106.8 DRTG (+8.4)
2010 SunsPOR: 120.1 ORTG against expected 107.1 DRTG (+13.0)
SAS: 116.0 ORTG against expected 104.5 DRTG (+11.5)
LAL: 119.8 ORTG against expected 103.7 DRTG (+16.1)
Overall: 117.8 ORTG against expected 105.2 DRTG (+13.8)
So, Miami last year was in the same realm as some of the best we've seen, and that's with both Wade and Bosh playing below their capabilities for extended stretches (or not playing at all). I'd wager we're going to see something similar (only to an even greater effect) in this year's playoffs, considering the roster improvements they've made on the offensive end, as well as Lebron's personal improvements.
Now sure, the inability to sustain this kind of production in the regular season (or so it seems) can be used to argue against them, but Elgee made points against this reasoning in the peaks project. Championship odds are just not highly affected by regular season performance, so it doesn't seem productive to hold it against Miami that they "only" played like a +6 offensive team in the regular season if they're able to jump up to +10, +11, +12 levels against selectively much tighter defenses in the postseason.