Sap Trade to Set up Future

[SoCalJazzFan]

This is kind of a different way of looking to get something out of Milsap.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=axj74ya

Why Bobcats do it? They get a rebounder and one of the better power forwards, albeit only for a few months, potentially. They've recently indicated that they need a rebounder and to improve their team, and they lose a backup PG and PF who aren't in their long term plans anyway.

Why the Jazz do it? It is increasingly looking like the Jazz won't sign Milsap as they will probably sign Jefferson and can't sign both. There really aren't any good scenarios where the Jazz get an impact player (particularly a PG) in return for Milsap. Some throw around getting Lowry from Toronto, but I doubt Toronto is very willing to give him up and would want the Jazz to take Bargs and his ugly contract with him (which the Jazz do not want as it will hamper their future).

What Jazz get is a tryout of a relatively cheap ($4M) backup PF in Warrick, who admittedly isn't great but serviceable as a backup to Favors (who needs more playing time), and if he is horrible, they can go after a better backup/semi-starter (e.g. Landry as suggested in another post) in free agency by electing not to take the team option on him. More importantly, the Jazz get a decent PG (all realistic free agents are about his equal- e.g. Jarret Jack, Calderon, Harris, Collison (unless he takes off next year), etc) which is good enough to start and keep the push to the playoffs alive. More importantly, his contract is manageable enough to either get that FA PG (not sure who it would be) and he could be the backup, or he could be the starting PG as the future PG, who is drafted in June, gets a year before starting in 2014, or the Jazz could use Sessions until 2014 where a better PG FA class will present itself. Together only adding $9M to the salary next year allows signing of Al and other FAs at decent contracts. Both are off books in 2014.

[Reckless]

Not a fan. Sessions percentages this season don't strike confidence in me - 39 % FG, 30% 3 PT and his inconsistencies show why he has moved from team to team his entire nba career. Warrick looks old now not as athletic as he once was.

[Kayariel]

this trade happens and sessions will be devin harris 2.0

[DelaneyRudd]

I'd rather not have the players coming back in place of risking free agency.

[red4hf]

I kind of like Sessions, but Warrick is horrible...... I mean absolutely horrible.......

If you think Jefferson is a bad denfender, you ain't seen nothing yet.......

From Hollinger's profile of him:

"Unfortunately, he has to be quite good offensively to warrant minutes because he's so bad on defense, and Warrick took a further step back last season. His rebound rate withered to 64th out of 70 power forwards, and he was 69th in blocks. His only "plus" was a low foul rate, but that's symbolic of his not trying, not a sign of effectiveness.

As always, his other metrics were disastrous. Synergy rated him among the league's worst defenders, the Suns gave up 5.7 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court, and opposing 4s rang up a 16.4 PER against him, according to 82games.com. Warrick's defensive metrics have been brutally awful every season in the league, largely explaining why he's become a bit player despite solid offensive production."

And Sessions just isn't that good to make up for Warrick's negatives...... This trade doesn't really make us better......

[SoCalJazzFan]

These are the facts that have to be considered:

1. Milsap will help the Jazz get into the playoffs, and perhaps even to the second round, but that is it.
2. Milsap is gone in 3-4 months.
3. There really aren't any trades for Milsap that a team is willing to make that will enable them to get Sap for a couple of months that will make an immediate or longterm impact for the Jazz. If you disagree, lay them out (and be realistic).
4. Favors is to the point where needs more playing time. He'll have his ups and downs, but he is at a point where needs the minutes, which he isn't going to get with Milsap on the roster.
5. Warrick is not great, but his PER is actually better than Marvin Williams. He is being brought in as a backup, not the starter. The team has an option for 2013/14 so they can let him go in less than 4 months, and pursue another PF this summer.
6. Sessions is way, way better than Watson and would be the starter (his PER this year is 18 and he is regularly a top 15 PG by stats in the league). Tinsley would be the backup. Mo is probably not going to be back to form this season (with a second serious injury to the same thumb he might not ever be the same) and really isn't a long term solution for the Jazz anyways. Sessions is good enough to keep the Jazz in the playoff hunt this year and serve as a transition PG next year. At $5M the Jazz could afford to have him and sign a better PG if the opportunity arose. In 2014 Bledsoe and Lowry are FAs, and probably the best options over the next 2 years (unless the Jazz can draft a surprising PG).

Once again, this isn't the immediate solution, but setting things up for a longer term solution by getting something for Milsap while the Jazz can that gives them flexibility in the next year or two.

[SoCalJazzFan]

A reality check of what others think of the value of Milsap, check out the "Milsap Trade Idea" string.

From other teams' fans-

Sap for Reddick (expiring)
Sap for Bass, Barbosa and 2013 pick
Sap and Burks for Ellis/Udoh or Udrih/Moute

[red4hf]

Just for the record, PER is useless when it comes to evaluating players, and their contributions to the team...... It only takes into account stats, not a players actual performance......

[StocktonShorts]

These are the facts that have to be considered:

1. Milsap will help the Jazz get into the playoffs, and perhaps even to the second round, but that is it.
2. Milsap is gone in 3-4 months.
.

You and I have very different definitions of the word 'fact'.

[erudite23]

Oh, man.


I will just say that given the current evidence, it's far more reasonable to conclude that Jefferson is the guy moving if we only keep one of these two players. The team likes Millsap more, he will likely be cheaper, and probably will bring back less on the trade market. Plus, as a long term solution, he fits better with the Kanter/Favors combo as a 3rd big off the bench that can play with either of those players versus Al, who is not an ideal fit playing next to Kanter.

Plus, I would rather let Millsap walk then trade him for that awful, awful--just truly terrible--package. Its always hard to gauge any player's trade value, but I find it incredibly hard to believe that NBA GMs would not flip something of significant value for a player like Paul Millsap. He's pretty good.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I think that the undisputed facts are that Sap is not willing to be a bench player and that he is going to get a pay raise this summer (probably in the $9M to $12M per season range). Also, the Jazz simply cannot keep both Al (probably $14M-$16M per season range) and Sap and plan on keeping their "core 4" or even just Hayward ($7M-$9M) and Favors (Max), and create a strong and balanced lineup.

I'll admit that the first and big assumption is that the trade or don't/can't resign Sap. I love Sap and last year was a huge proponent of trading Big Al and keeping Sap. However, from the games I have watched this year, I think that Al is getting better on defense and passing. He has single handidly won several games this years, which can't be said of Sap. He also is much more difficult to replace than Sap. There are probably a handful of PFs which would be great for the Jazz as backups to Favors, or even have the ability to start, which the Jazz could realistically get, but there are very few, if any, centers the Jazz could realistically get to replace Al. I don't think Kanter is ready to step into that role, and I think that Favors views himself more as a PF and really is more of a PF (a Sap/Favors frontcourt would be small).

Here is a tweak on the trade which makes it more realistic and perhaps more palatable, with a focus on shoring up the backcourt and giving the Jazz flexibility over the next year or two.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=byfmgnr

Charlotte gets the rebounder they need (and not just on a few month rental) and a backup veteran PG to replace Sessions.

The Nets get the PF they need for their playoff push, with an inside track to resign Sap. They have to give up CJ Watson for Earl Watson and take on Bell's contract, but their deep pockets and win now mode dictate they would do it.

The Jazz's backcourt improves immensly with Sessions and CJ Watson as the PGs. Both of their contracts end in 2014. If the Jazz can get a better starting PG, these two as your 2nd and 3rd string would be fabulous at a decent $6M for 2013/14. However, if the Jazz get a young long term PG, the Jazz can ride Sessions and CJ Watson for a year without a drop off in productivity in what they have had this year. Once again, Warrick is a bench player (and maybe a warm body) whose option would most likely not be picked up, allowing the Jazz to get the backup PF (e.g. Landry) they want this offseason.

I can't think of a better REALISTIC trade that improves the JAzz' backcourt while not hampering future flexibility.