OT: Travis dArnaud could open season with Mets

[LittleOzzy]

When Sandy Alderson shipped R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays, he did so with an eye on the future. According to the Mets GM’s latest WFAN radio hit, a key piece of that future could debut with the Mets sooner than later. Alderson hinted that Travis d’Arnaud could open the season with the big club, via New York Daily News:

“I just don’t want to rule anything out,” Alderson said. “But at the same time, I don’t want to create false expectations for our fans or put pressure on Travis. He hasn’t played since last June (because of a knee injury). . . . As far as Opening Day is concerned, he could be with us. But we have a very capable veteran in John Buck as well.”



d’Arnaud, of course, was the centrepiece that the Mets coveted in the package of Noah Syndergaard, Wuilmer Becerra, and John Buck that led to them jettisoning the reinging National League Cy Young winner. Alderson’s suggestion that the game’s top catching prospect stands a reasonable chance of making the Mets out of spring training shouldn’t come as a shock, as he was more or less building on praise he offered d’Arnaud last week in an ESPN New York piece from Adam Rubin:

“We viewed d’Arnaud, and I believe the industry views Travis, as the top catching prospect in the game,” Alderson said. “And not just the top catching prospect, but the one who is closest to major league ready, if not now major league ready. In addition, we think his upside is such that he could be a significant player for us over the next many years.

“Understand he’s only a prospect. Understand he has not done anything at the major league level. But given his ceiling, given his position and given what we think he can do not just long term for the Mets — near term, medium term — we think he can be a difference-maker.”

http://www.thescore.com/home/articles/4 ... -with-mets

[raps4589]

Joe Mauer 2.0

[torontoaces04]

BUST

[DonYon]

He can be their next Piazza for all I care as long as we win the WS

[OhMyBosh]

Seems like we've waited forever to see him get to the Majors. Hope he pans out.

[tecumseh18]

He can be their next Piazza for all I care as long as we win the WS

Piazza would hurt. He had a 6.8 WAR his rookie season, 16.2 his first three seasons. Dickey was 5.6 in 2012, 12.1 over the last three seasons.

TDA's probably not gonna be Piazza. But there's no question that JPA's offence and defence is a weak link in the Jays chain. So "wins above replacement" is a fairly meaningful stat in this situation.

[RyderMike]

He can be their next Piazza for all I care as long as we win the WS

Piazza would hurt. He had a 6.8 WAR his rookie season, 16.2 his first three seasons. Dickey was 5.6 in 2012, 12.1 over the last three seasons.

TDA's probably not gonna be Piazza. But there's no question that JPA's offence and defence is a weak link in the Jays chain. So "wins above replacement" is a fairly meaningful stat in this situation.

There's no predicting the future, but if we win with Dickey it's worth it. Maybe TDA would've helped us win, we'll never know. But I'm not going to wish bad on TDA's career just because we traded him. I hope he becomes the talent we expected and wanted him to become when he was still in our system.

[tecumseh18]

Gosh, I'm not knocking the trade, just responding to the Piazza point.

Ruminating/anguishing about these types of decisions is what's fun about off-season sports. Depending on the team you follow, it may provide more entertainment value than the (regular season) games themselves. I still recall my feelings around "The Trade" in 1990. Giving up McGriff (best player in the deal) was tough, but we had already had Olerud and Delgado coming up. The Kent/Cone deal in 1993 was not so angst-inducing at the time, but in retrospect? The 1993 team sure needed another SP to get over the hump, more badly than the 2013 Jays seem to.

[edit] After watching Nash get owned by Jose at the ACC yesterday, I maybe a bit more leery paying big time for a 38-year-old than I was when this trade went down.

[DonYon]

Piazza would hurt. He had a 6.8 WAR his rookie season, 16.2 his first three seasons. Dickey was 5.6 in 2012, 12.1 over the last three seasons.

He can be the next Herman Ruth and I still wouldn't care

I guess my point is that no one should feel bad as long as Dickey does what he's supposed to. People get too caught up in who the 'winner' of these trades are, but it really shouldn't matter as long as both teams benefit from it (no matter how much or little).

[flatjacket1]

Piazza would hurt. He had a 6.8 WAR his rookie season, 16.2 his first three seasons. Dickey was 5.6 in 2012, 12.1 over the last three seasons.

He can be the next Herman Ruth and I still wouldn't care

I guess my point is that no one should feel bad as long as Dickey does what he's supposed to. People get too caught up in who the 'winner' of these trades are, but it really shouldn't matter as long as both teams benefit from it (no matter how much or little).

That would be the worst point of view of management ever... We would get so bad so fast if we continued down that path.

[RyderMike]

Piazza would hurt. He had a 6.8 WAR his rookie season, 16.2 his first three seasons. Dickey was 5.6 in 2012, 12.1 over the last three seasons.

He can be the next Herman Ruth and I still wouldn't care

I guess my point is that no one should feel bad as long as Dickey does what he's supposed to. People get too caught up in who the 'winner' of these trades are, but it really shouldn't matter as long as both teams benefit from it (no matter how much or little).

That would be the worst point of view of management ever... We would get so bad so fast if we continued down that path.

How is that a terrible management point of view? If the trade does what it is supposed to for you team, it shouldn't matter about the other team. Look at it this way: Would you rather win the battle (trade), but lose the war (World Series)? The end all and be all is to win the World Series. Whatever you do to get there is worth it. The best trades are the ones that benefit both teams, just like this trade has the potential of doing (don't get me wrong I love winning a trade - I would never say no if we acquired Strasburg+Harper for a player to be named ). It takes value to get value.

[YogiStewart]

best-case scenario?

win-win for both teams.

[Lateral Quicks]

Don't want to be a debbie downer, but this trade could easily bust for the Jays. Dickey could lose a few mph on his fast knuckler and instantly become much more hittable, while d'Arnaud could quite conceivably be better than Arencibia in his rookie year. I didn't like the trade when it was made, and still think it was a mistake now.

Excited about the season though! Hopefully the trade works out for both teams.

[Brew666]

Don't want to be a debbie downer, but this trade could easily bust for the Jays. Dickey could lose a few mph on his fast knuckler and instantly become much more hittable, while d'Arnaud could quite conceivably be better than Arencibia in his rookie year. I didn't like the trade when it was made, and still think it was a mistake now.

Excited about the season though! Hopefully the trade works out for both teams.

I think the probabilities are on the Jays' side with this deal (prospects v. proven mlbers). Even if Dickey does lose a few mph off a knuckler, it's nothing as long as he can pitch for strikes, which he's been doing for 2.5 - 3 seasons.

There's no guarantees with D'Arnaud but I think people have a bit of an inflated view if people are fearing we gave up a once in a generation catcher. We gave up good prospects to get an ace, that's the cost.

[flatjacket1]

How is that a terrible management point of view? If the trade does what it is supposed to for you team, it shouldn't matter about the other team. Look at it this way: Would you rather win the battle (trade), but lose the war (World Series)? The end all and be all is to win the World Series. Whatever you do to get there is worth it. The best trades are the ones that benefit both teams, just like this trade has the potential of doing (don't get me wrong I love winning a trade - I would never say no if we acquired Strasburg+Harper for a player to be named ). It takes value to get value.

So if we trade 4 fWAR for 3 fWAR it's a good trade still?

[MikeM]

How is that a terrible management point of view? If the trade does what it is supposed to for you team, it shouldn't matter about the other team. Look at it this way: Would you rather win the battle (trade), but lose the war (World Series)? The end all and be all is to win the World Series. Whatever you do to get there is worth it. The best trades are the ones that benefit both teams, just like this trade has the potential of doing (don't get me wrong I love winning a trade - I would never say no if we acquired Strasburg+Harper for a player to be named ). It takes value to get value.

So if we trade 4 fWAR for 3 fWAR it's a good trade still?

If that 3 fWar is replacing Aaron Laffey then yes.

If we're chasing a world series of course.

If we're the Mets then no.

Priorities change when you're trying to actually win baseball games.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Don't want to be a debbie downer, but this trade could easily bust for the Jays. Dickey could lose a few mph on his fast knuckler and instantly become much more hittable, while d'Arnaud could quite conceivably be better than Arencibia in his rookie year. I didn't like the trade when it was made, and still think it was a mistake now.

Excited about the season though! Hopefully the trade works out for both teams.

We're not talking about a guy that throws a low to mid 90's knuckler. Even if he throws for less velocity, as long as the ball's doing this we should be good:

[Raps in 4]

Don't want to be a debbie downer, but this trade could easily bust for the Jays. Dickey could lose a few mph on his fast knuckler and instantly become much more hittable, while d'Arnaud could quite conceivably be better than Arencibia in his rookie year. I didn't like the trade when it was made, and still think it was a mistake now.

Excited about the season though! Hopefully the trade works out for both teams.

I think the probabilities are on the Jays' side with this deal (prospects v. proven mlbers). Even if Dickey does lose a few mph off a knuckler, it's nothing as long as he can pitch for strikes, which he's been doing for 2.5 - 3 seasons.

There's no guarantees with D'Arnaud but I think people have a bit of an inflated view if people are fearing we gave up a once in a generation catcher. We gave up good prospects to get an ace, that's the cost.

You have an inflated view of Dickey as well. Dickey is a big question mark himself at his age and with his limited resume.

[flatjacket1]

If that 3 fWar is replacing Aaron Laffey then yes.

If we're chasing a world series of course.

If we're the Mets then no.

Priorities change when you're trying to actually win baseball games.

Well, it's not like JPA is an All-Star

[RyderMike]

How is that a terrible management point of view? If the trade does what it is supposed to for you team, it shouldn't matter about the other team. Look at it this way: Would you rather win the battle (trade), but lose the war (World Series)? The end all and be all is to win the World Series. Whatever you do to get there is worth it. The best trades are the ones that benefit both teams, just like this trade has the potential of doing (don't get me wrong I love winning a trade - I would never say no if we acquired Strasburg+Harper for a player to be named ). It takes value to get value.

So if we trade 4 fWAR for 3 fWAR it's a good trade still?

Like I said if we win the World Series then yes. I don't know the specifics of their fWARs, but to me I look at it like the improvement from replacing Happ with Dickey will be a larger effect than the difference between JPA and TDA (over the next couple seasons at least).

Don't get me wrong, I was not too thrilled dealing TDA+Syndergaard, but I'm looking at the other variables.

Just like it would be a waste to have Bautista in his prime, but not competing; by not dealing TDA we could've been stuck in the same predicament a few years from now: TDA in his prime with a middle of the pack team.

TDA will most certainly provide more value over the remainder of his career than Dickey who has a couple years left. But you have to make the most of your opportunities, and to answer the question of who helps us more today, the answer is Dickey. Sure we might not win the title, and then we will regret not having TDA later, but you have to take some risks to get over the hump.