The Lebron Thread

[PCProductions]

I'm excited to see what a Lebron with semi-fresh legs will look like against the 5th worst defense in the league.

[ThatsWhatIShved]

Thoughts on the Heat replacing one of the worst defenders in the league, Beasley, with Lebron and not getting any better? It seems like Lebron gets a ton of credit for playing with Varejao, Wallace, Wade, Anthony, Battier, etc., but does not get any blame for being lit up by scrubs like Admunson, Perkins, Barea, etc.

[CKRT]

.....



wat?

[starvinmarvin17]

Thoughts on the Heat replacing one of the worst defenders in the league, Beasley, with Lebron and not getting any better? It seems like Lebron gets a ton of credit for playing with Varejao, Wallace, Wade, Anthony, Battier, etc., but does not get any blame for being lit up by scrubs like Admunson, Perkins, Barea, etc.

What the hell I saw Derozan scared when Lebron covered hm when he got hot late. And AA is a. Straight chucker. He is told to chuck as many shots by bc and Casey to absorb criticism for bustnani and remind is bargs might not be the worst chuckiest scrub-brick feat on the raps

[orangeparka]

Raptors fans are my favorite.

[PCProductions]

So is lebron's jumper dead in an alley way or something?

[SideshowBob]

Those games he played injured against Indiana and Portland screwed up his line a bit, as well as Miami's overall numbers, as well as his flu game against Phoenix. Those are the only three games he's put up an ORTG of <100.

Season minus @IND,@POR,@PHO (37 G)

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MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
38.1  26.9   8.1    7.2    1.6    0.9    2.7  .632   .596    24.5   125

Approximate PER of 31.8 in that sample.


Season since OKC game minus @POR,@PHO (12 G)

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MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
39.3  29.2   7.1    7.6    2.3    0.9    2.6  .662   .609    27.5   132

Shooting 86% from the line during that stretch as well. That line looks like 2010 on steroids, his PER over that stretch is about 34.6.

[ardee]

Those games he played injured against Indiana and Portland screwed up his line a bit, as well as Miami's overall numbers, as well as his flu game against Phoenix. Those are the only three games he's put up an ORTG of <100.

Season minus @IND,@POR,@PHO (37 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
38.1  26.9   8.1    7.2    1.6    0.9    2.7  .632   .596    24.5   125

Approximate PER of 31.8 in that sample.


Season since OKC game minus @POR,@PHO (12 G)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TOV   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
39.3  29.2   7.1    7.6    2.3    0.9    2.6  .662   .609    27.5   132

Shooting 86% from the line during that stretch as well. That line looks like 2010 on steroids, his PER over that stretch is about 34.6.

And just think, if he cranks it up as big a notch from the regular season to the Playoffs as he did last year.... We might be looking at a '91 MJ level of statistical flawlessness. If you consider the Houston game as the day he reverted back to his normal level of production, the line is 27.3/7.7/7.3/1.8/0.9 on 55/38/77.

Assume equal fluctuations in each category as compared to 2012, just for the heck of it, suddenly we're looking at a 31/10/7 on 60+% TS for the entire Playoffs, which is right up there with '91 MJ statistically, not to mention that the East is even worse than last year so those numbers could go up even more to levels I can't even begin to speculate about.

The biggest testament to LeBron right now is that Durant is playing at a Bird-like level and he's still not the league's best player.

If these two face off in the Finals this year it's going to be the biggest match-up since Michael and Magic in '91. Salivating at the thought.

[fatal9]

not to mention that the East is even worse than last year so those numbers could go up even more to levels I can't even begin to speculate about.

East is bad but there are some really good defensive teams that should challenge him. If Heat end up going through something like Boston in first round (-2 defense right now, but they have been pacing KG's minutes), Pacers in second round (-6 defense), Bulls in ECF (-5 defense), in terms of quality of defenses faced, that would be one of the most challenging playoff runs ever (maybe the most? IDK haven't checked). Those teams don't just have a good regular season defensive scheme either that superstars can pick apart, they are smart, experienced, have the personnel to make adjustments and really slow down star players. It would be basically like facing three Thibodeau type defenses in a row to get to the finals. You can argue about how good those teams are because of offensive issues (though Granger and Rose returning to their respective teams should help), but it's not going to be easy staying efficient and putting up numbers against them. If those are the teams he ends up facing, it would be really, really impressive if he produces anywhere close to last year.

[CJ_18]

I'm really starting to feel like 2013 will overtake 2010 in terms of being LeBron's best season. Since last years playoffs, it seems like he has hit his highest peak. To me he's close to being as physically dominant as he was in '10, but he's just more polished,steady and mature player which puts it all over the top for me. They say most players hit their peak around 28.. and the dude just turned 28 and I'm starting to believe he's reached it.. where you are an age that you have experience and polish to your game, and are still pretty close to being in your athletic prime.

EDIT: and I forgot to mention maybe the most important contributing factor.. how comfortable and confident he has looked since last years playoffs. With that comes being more aggressive and not being worried, just playing with no worries. We've seen many stretches during his career that he's lost his comfort and confidence (late in game 6 vs celtics in 2010, finals vs Dallas, etc, even a little bit during last regular season during his midseason 'slump')

[SideshowBob]

Here's the defenses he's faced in each postseason

2006

Wizards +1.1
Pistons -3.1

2007

Wizards +5.8
Nets -0.1
Pistons -2.3
Spurs -6.6

2008

Wizards +2.1
Celtics -8.6

2009

Pistons -0.3
Hawks -0.7
Magic -6.4

2010

Bulls -2.3
Celtics -3.8

2011

76ers -2.3
Celtics -7.0
Bulls -7.0
Mavericks -2.3

2012

Knicks -3.6
Pacers -1.5
Celtics -6.4
Thunder -1.4

Here's how the Eastern playoff teams look defensively this year so far:

Miami -0.1
New York +0.2
Chicago -4.6
Brooklyn +0.5
Indiana -6.2
Atlanta -2.0
Milwaukee -1.8
Boston -1.9

Since 2009 (when he made the jump) he's faced an average defense of -4.0 in the Eastern Conference Playoffs, weighted for each game played. If Miami plays a 7 game series against the 3 top defensive teams in the EC this postseason, they'd have faced an average defense of -4.3.

Furthermore, from what I've seen from him this regular season, he should be able to make a much bigger jump from RS to PS than he did last year. His current game translates against strong defenses much better than his game from last season did, and his jumper isn't completely broken either. I don't think he's going to have much trouble at all.

[toodles23]

Chicago and Indiana are the two teams I could see Lebron having trouble with. He already has a stinker against Indiana, and we saw how well the Bulls played him in the 2011 ECF - Lebron had a decent series, but they held him to 26 points on 44% FG despite his jumper being on the whole series. Don't see him having any trouble against the Celtics, he killed them the last two years in a row, and they're only getting older.

Also forgot to mention, I liked Lebron in the post last night. Made a righty jump hook going to the middle, then the next time turned away from the double team toward the baseline and banked in a lefty hook. I wish he would do that a little more.

[SideshowBob]

Here's Lebron in his last 3 ECF

Orlando 101.9 DRTG (-6.4)

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MP    PTS    TRB    AST    FGA    FTA    USG%   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
44.3  38.5   8.3    8.0    25.7   15.7   38.8  .591   .523    29.3   118

Chicago 100.3 DRTG (-7.0)

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MP    PTS    TRB    AST    FGA    FTA    USG%   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
45.2  25.8   7.8    6.6    18.8   8.8    38.8  .569   .484    21.9   111

Boston 99.1 DRTG (-6.4)

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MP    PTS    TRB    AST    FGA    FTA    USG%   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
45.8  33.6   11.0   3.9    23.6   11.4   38.8  .587   .555    24.8   115

Average 100.4 DRTG (-6.6)

Code: Select all

MP    PTS    TRB    AST    FGA    FTA    USG%   TS%    eFG%   GmSc   ORTG
45.1  33.1   9.2    6.0    22.9   12.1   34.4  .585   .527    25.5   115

2011 is clearly the down year (for reasons I've been speaking of since the beginning of this thread, but considering how slow-paced and grind it out that series was, that still looks rather impressive. The average pace was 84.7, Miami put up a 103.2 ORTG and Chicago a 100.7. Rose only managed 23/7 on 43.6% TS (93 ORTG) and Wade put up 19/2 on 49.8% TS (90 ORTG).

[SideshowBob]

Chicago and Indiana are the two teams I could see Lebron having trouble with. He already has a stinker against Indiana, and we saw how well the Bulls played him in the 2011 ECF - Lebron had a decent series, but they held him to 26 points on 44% FG despite his jumper being on the whole series. Don't see him having any trouble against the Celtics, he killed them the last two years in a row, and they're only getting older.

I don't see any trouble with either. Chicago isn't as good defensively as they were in 2011, and Lebron's much improved athletically. The Indiana game was on the night after he tweaked the ankle, and he put up an even worse game the night following against Portland.

[toodles23]

Soooo many in and outs for Lebron today, it only seems to happen on Boston's rims.

Not a very good game by him overall.

[IG2]

Can't really complain. Looked quick(before he got tired, anyway), shot well and if not for the bogus Boston rims, would've finished with fine efficiency. His defense, rebounding and passing were stellar too.

Wade was intent on LeBron not moving up the MVP race though. Single-handedly blew the game.

[SideshowBob]

He gets 2 days off now before the game in Brooklyn. I expect a big game there, playing in the new arena for the first time. Wonder if he'll have his old MSG swag.

[ronnymac2]

Only thing that'll hold LeBron down for that game is if he chills with Jay-Z in NYC the night before...


Another monster game this afternoon. 34/16/7/3/1 and stellar defense on Pierce. Miami went to Wade too much down the stretch. If Wade is rolling, fine, but Boston has individuals that play a defensive style that can disrupt current Wade's play. The default player to go to against Boston has to me LBJ if you're Miami.

I don't think Boston can effectively defend LeBron anymore, even with the master piece a defense can have for defending slashers — Kevin Garnett . They don't have a second big that can physically prevent him from finishing plays (Perkins being jettisoned hurt more than people think), and most importantly, they don't have the primary defenders to guide him to Garnett. That's really the key.

Bradley is awesome defensively but way too small. James will just pin him down on the block or create separation to get up a shot in the midrange. I think Bradley has less length than Sefalosha, so when Bradley gets in front of a driving James 13 feet away from the basket and is bumped and nudged and LeBron shoots that little fadeaway going off to the side, Bradley won't even contest as effectively as Thabo did.

I definitely don't consider Boston's defense as an obstacle to LeBron putting up huge numbers in the playoffs (if Boston can even get there after the Rondo injury.)

[SideshowBob]

Yeah he's going to be fine. I don't expect him to have trouble against Boston either. He's never had issues putting up big numbers against us in the postseason, barring the first 4 games in the 08 series.

Since then (21 G)

Code: Select all

MP     PTS     TRB     AST     STL     BLK     TOV    TS%     eFG%    TOV%
44.6   30.9    9.2     5.0     1.7     1.3     3.9   .569    .515    .108

Account for the two off games, game 5 in '10 and game 3 in 11

Code: Select all

MP     PTS     TRB     AST     STL     BLK     TOV    TS%     eFG%    TOV%
44.8   32.5    9.5     4.9     1.7     1.2     3.9   .582    .530    .107

On another note, it's absurd how many minutes this guy plays in the postseason. He's averaging the same minutes per game in Miami as he did in Cleveland. He's got the 5th highest postseason MPG average of all time (Wilt, Russ, Bob Love, and Iverson are ahead) at 43.4, and even that's misleading, considering how much his minutes shoot up after the first round. In 2011, he played 44.4 a game after the Philadelphia series. Last year, he played 44.1 after the NYK series. Just crazy. And what's even more absurd is that save for 2011, his performance level actually goes up, despite playing 10% more minutes.

[orangeparka]

I really hope LeBron cuts down on his minutes, especially in the regular season. Dunno if we'll ever have the luxury of that considering our depth, and how much we seem like fish outta water when he's not in, though.