RGM's Top 20 Most Valuable Players - Final Results+Thoughts

[Trader_Joe]

Real GM's TnT Board Top 20 Most Valuable Players

1. LeBron James


2. Kevin Durant


3. Kyrie Irving


4. Derrick Rose


5. Carmelo Anthony


6. Chris Paul


7. Anthony Davis


8. James Harden


9. Russell Westbrook


10. Blake Griffin


11. LaMarcus Aldridge


12. Kevin Love


13. Rajon Rondo


14. Marc Gasol


15. Damian Lillard


16. Andre Drummond


17. Jrue Holiday


18. Stephen Curry


19. Paul George


20. Dwyane Wade


Last year's results:
http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1161629


Votes:
Kobe - 111
Deron - 111
Lopez - 11
Wade - 1111111111
Ibaka - 11

[Trader_Joe]

Also, I 'll ask the board.. for the Worst Contracts... how many should we do?

Seems this one really slowed down after the top 15.

[x-]

Considering Curry's ankle woes, there's no chance Curry's actual trade value is 18th. That one is just nuts to me.

I think PGs are generally overrated on this list, given how deep/good this PG class is.

I think Gasol is a little too high as well.

[re49gb_2gho32fp]

Anthony Davis seems out of place on that list. At least a dozen of spots too high.

So far, the only certainty Davis has shown is questionmarks around his strength and ability to endure an nba season. Let's not forget that his injuries have occurred WITHOUT any blatant weight increase from college.
To be fair, Davis possess tantalizing offensive potential, but then again, so does his namesake Randolph.

Drummond should be higher. Much higher.

-----------

Worst contract, can there really be more than 10 dreadful contracts in the league at this point? I doubt it.

Maybe a list of 5-10


ed: good call on Paul, HFW

[HartfordWhalers]

Considering Curry's ankle woes, there's no chance Curry's actual trade value is 18th. That one is just nuts to me.

I think PGs are generally overrated on this list, given how deep/good this PG class is.

I think Gasol is a little too high as well.

I agree with Curry being to high.

Paul George is too low, he should be ahead of Jrue for the reason mentioned above.

Paul as a ufa shouldn't be ahead of Harden and Davis. Or Blake.

[Trader_Joe]

This might also be a good place for people to list what their top 20 would have been...

Mine:

1. LBJ
2. Durant
3. Irving
4. Melo
5. Rose
6. Harden
7. Westbrook
8. Griffin
9. Drummond
10. A.Davis
11. Lillard
12. LMA
13. Love
14. M.Gasol
15. Wade
16. George
17. Holiday
18. D.Williams
19. Rondo (hard to rank with the timing of the injury)
20. Curry (see Rondo)

Off the list was Paul because I just don't think soon to be unrestricted FA's have a ton of value. It seems like he's content to stay with the Clippers too...if not Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and others would swipe him up quickly for a Max. Or maybe, I should say, I just don't know how to rank him, so I left him off.

[Dr Positivity]

I'd go top 10 for worst contracts

Not sure about the above list. Lebron over Durant was pretty weird, Lebron has a shortish contract and he's way older... to me Durant should've #1 without question. I think Harden and Davis should've been higher. Love lower. Deron has been Deron in 2013 so kind of weak he didn't make the list.

[Ian Kognitow]

I'd say that the list actually looks pretty solid. I might personally bump particular players a couple slots up or down, but no real snubs. I had been voting for Ibaka (and nominating Vucevic) at the end, but the winning votes were very justifiable and the line has to be drawn somewhere.

Other brief thoughts:

-- Next five: 21. Serge Ibaka, 22. Nikola Vucevic, 23. Tony Parker, 24. Nicolas Batum, 25. Brook Lopez.

-- Aldridge seems way too high and I wouldn't have him in the top-20 (but probably top-25). Just among PF/Cs, rating his value over the proven likes of Love, M. Gasol or the huge potential of Drummond just seems off to me.

-- Despite just having praised Drummond, he still seems somewhat too high himself right now, especially with guys like Ibaka, Lopez, and Vucevic not making it. I'd have him somewhere around 19-22ish. Drummond may already be one of the most physically dominating players in the league but until he can get his pathetic FT shooting at even 50% (which, unfortunately, would be a significant leap), his value will be limited and he'll never be able to finish important games. Right now he's just a better version of DeAndre Jordan.

-- Rondo was probably a tad too high when he was voted in and obviously now should be dropped out after his injury. On the other hand, if Curry manages to hold up for the year, he could be worthy of a top-10 slot next year.

[JustinSane]

There were about ten players I felt I could be talked into for spots 17-20. I wonder whether other posters had the same problem, and whether it may have contributed to the depressed participation near the end. Durant probably should be #1 based on youth and seeming contentment in a small market. On the whole I think it's a good list, though I think Davis is too high and Drummond a bit too low. Trader_Joe's list actually looks very, very close to where I would put them. I think established, aging stars are really tough to rank. There aren't a whole lot of players who would improve a team's chances of winning a championship the next couple of seasons more than Kobe, Wade or Nowitski. But given the super-team dynamic, there just aren't many teams in position to give up assets/cap space to trade for a player of that stature and still have a shot at contending. Young, good, cheap players are a lot more movable. They are attractive to a much wider range of teams, it's easier to match salaries, there are generally fewer injury concerns, and there is usually reason to think they could continue to improve. The list reflects that, and I think it should. But it's wierd seeing Lillard above Wade, even if I agree with it.

[Jake0890]

Lillard is there but no Kobe? Come on...

[Dr Positivity]

My list

1. Durant
2. Lebron
3. Irving
4. Harden
5. Davis
6. Rose
7. Melo
8. Griffin
9. Westbrook
10. Marc Gasol
11. Deron
12. Drummond
13. Aldridge
14. Kobe
15. Holiday
16. George
17. Paul
18. Love
19. Lillard
20. Rondo

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Lillard is there but no Kobe? Come on...

I wouldn't trade Lillard for Kobe.


Maybe I would do it if Kobe cost the same as Lillard, but Portland would have to include Batum, Hickson and Matthews to make salary match, and even then you think Kobe is going to waive his NTC to going to a team with him and Aldridge and no available cap space?


Maybe you see where the problem in thinking Kobe has much trade value.

[pauk89]

When you factor in things like market, youth, and loyalty there is no way Durant isn't #1. He appears to be on his way to a top 20 alltime career, at the minimum, and he's not even in his prime.

[Village Idiot]

Lillard is there but no Kobe? Come on...

This kind of point was typical for the entire excercise.

The point of the thread is trade value, not on court value which is only one of many factors.

Trade value is comprised of some factors. I've made my own list which is undboutedly not exhaustive so please contribute your own.

Production: what the player can offer a team in on court value

Contract value: all things being equal if player A and player B are equal in other terms, the player with the best value for money contract is more valuable

Contract terms: A guy putting up big numbers on a rookie contract with bird rights is worth a lot more than a player making $12 million a year who will be an unrestricted free-agent in the off-season. Nobody will give up value in trade for a guy who isn't locked in

Potential for increased or decreased production: guys like Drummond have shown much more than expected. That is worth a premium. A guy like Gerald Wallace, who is dependent on athleticism more than skill and who is aging might have decreased value to many teams

Marketability: Prime Vince Carter or current LeBron guarantees sell-outs and increased local tv interest and advertising revenues. Zach Randolph is few years ago for example is another story

Versatility: is the player easy to fit to other systems or is he dependent on a system for his numbers. A versatile player who can play more than one position gets a plus, a tweener with a less certain role and skill set gets a minus

Scarcity: A 7'5 center who can block shots, rebound and run the court is uncommon. 6'3 gunners with questionable shot selection and ball-handling skills are common

Fit: How would a player be able to fit into a team and system. A rebuilding team trading for an all-star in the prime of his career might find themselves with an unhappy camper.

Different teams would give different weights to the categories which is why we, from the perspective of our favorite team, have such divergent tastes.

Ideally this excercise would be done by putting a weight on those categories for each team and each player and then calculating each factor and coming up with a total list. Of course doing this ourselves is 90% of the fun

[VIPER8382]

My quick thoughts:

I want to add a write in vote for Greg Monroe as the biggest snub. He is still on a rookie deal for the rest of this season and then also next season, is only 22, and is already one of the best PF/C combos in the league.

Dwayne Wade shouldn't be anywhere close to this list. His contract doesn't make him completely untradable like Kobe's, but even though he has stayed relatively healthy this season, he is still an "old" 31. Not exactly what I want to spend 3.5 years of max deal type money on.

Derrick Rose is also way, way too high on this list. He is coming off of a serious injury, and is only regarded as highly as he is when healthy because the Bulls have built the perfect supporting cast around him (yet he really hasn't done much of anything in the playoffs). One day he will be exposed and we will all laugh about how he won a completely hollow MVP award. Don't get me wrong, I believe he is a very good player and even deserves his max deal, but he will never be the best player on a championship team, if he wins a title it will be next to a true top 10 player. Having him 4th on this list is a joke, but I don't think anybody meant for it to be funny.

[Maefteda]

1. Lebron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Kyrie Irving
4. Carmelo Anthony
5. Derrick Rose
6. Chris Paul
7. Anthony Davis
8. Blake Griffin
9. Russell Westbrook
10. James Harden
11. Paul George
12. Kevin Love
13. Marc Gasol
14. Tony Parker
15. Andre Drummond
16. LaMarcus Aldridge
17. Rajon Rondo
18. Dwyane Wade
19. Joakim Noah
20. Ricky Rubio

Tony Parker is only 30 and is having his best season. 3 years locked in at 12,5 million, no sign of injuries or slowing down. Don't know why he hasn't been mentioned. Paul George is not 10 places behind Harden. Younger, longer, better defender, on a rookie contract. Harden has shown that he is a superstar player though, so he gets the nod slightly. Joakim Noah is a vital part of Bulls who are really good even with Derrick Rose out. Rubio has great appeal and attracts very good players around him. He showed how much of an impact he can have on a team with Minnesota last year, who imploded when he got injured. Still working his way back, but is on a good rookie contract, and has only played in a lockout-shortened season so far, with room to improve.

[Kinger95]

DWade is about 13 spots too low. Might not be putting up the same numbers now that lebrons there but he's still a superstar and would demand a lot more than the 13 players ahead of him in a trade

[Ian Kognitow]

DWade is about 13 spots too low. Might not be putting up the same numbers now that lebrons there but he's still a superstar and would demand a lot more than the 13 players ahead of him in a trade

Given Wade's age, injury history, expensive contract, and that he would really only be of interest to present contenders (ones not willing to part with existing stars), there is a useful comparison for Wade's value: Vince Carter in '09 when he was traded to ORL.

Carter was one year older but had only missed 8 games over the previous 4 years, so their physical outlook can be thought of as more of less equivalent or Carter's perhaps as even favorable than Wade's. Their numbers too are virtually identical:
--Carter '09: 20.8p / 5.1r / 4.7a, .437 fg%, .385 3pt%, . 817 ft%
--Wade '13: 20.6p / 4.6r / 4.6a, .508 fg%, .319 3pt%, .738 ft%

So what big haul was Vince Carter able to command? He was dealt *with Ryan Anderson* for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, and Tony Battie.
--Sure, maybe Wade could get a bit more than that in trade. But it would be a lot closer to that than to what OKC recently got for Harden or what the likes of Griffin, Lillard, or Drummond could command right now.

[TheRobin]

DWade is about 13 spots too low. Might not be putting up the same numbers now that lebrons there but he's still a superstar and would demand a lot more than the 13 players ahead of him in a trade

Given Wade's age, injury history, expensive contract, and that he would really only be of interest to present contenders (ones not willing to part with existing stars), there is a useful comparison for Wade's value: Vince Carter in '09 when he was traded to ORL.

Carter was one year older but had only missed 8 games over the previous 4 years, so their physical outlook can be thought of as more of less equivalent or Carter's perhaps as even favorable than Wade's. Their numbers too are virtually identical:
--Carter '09: 20.8p / 5.1r / 4.7a, .437 fg%, .385 3pt%, . 817 ft%
--Wade '13: 20.6p / 4.6r / 4.6a, .508 fg%, .319 3pt%, .738 ft%

So what big haul was Vince Carter able to command? He was dealt *with Ryan Anderson* for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, and Tony Battie.
--Sure, maybe Wade could get a bit more than that in trade. But it would be a lot closer to that than to what OKC recently got for Harden or what the likes of Griffin, Lillard, or Drummond could command right now.

LOL You're comparing Wade to Carter? Carter was the first optiion while wade is playing Robin to LeBron while putting up better stats than carter... Wade is atleast top 15

[Trader_Joe]

DWade is about 13 spots too low. Might not be putting up the same numbers now that lebrons there but he's still a superstar and would demand a lot more than the 13 players ahead of him in a trade

Given Wade's age, injury history, expensive contract, and that he would really only be of interest to present contenders (ones not willing to part with existing stars), there is a useful comparison for Wade's value: Vince Carter in '09 when he was traded to ORL.

Carter was one year older but had only missed 8 games over the previous 4 years, so their physical outlook can be thought of as more of less equivalent or Carter's perhaps as even favorable than Wade's. Their numbers too are virtually identical:
--Carter '09: 20.8p / 5.1r / 4.7a, .437 fg%, .385 3pt%, . 817 ft%
--Wade '13: 20.6p / 4.6r / 4.6a, .508 fg%, .319 3pt%, .738 ft%

So what big haul was Vince Carter able to command? He was dealt *with Ryan Anderson* for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, and Tony Battie.
--Sure, maybe Wade could get a bit more than that in trade. But it would be a lot closer to that than to what OKC recently got for Harden or what the likes of Griffin, Lillard, or Drummond could command right now.

Nets were looking to salary dump. Not a valid comparison.