Official: Rudy Gay to Toronto

darkangle901 · Post #41 » by **darkangle901** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:48 am

Grizzlies get older and worse at the same time, and all we get for our trouble is a second round pick and a decent young big who will probably never be any better than decent.

All this for what? To get a little further under the tax? Give me a break. Randolph should have been dealt or we should have just let Tony Allen walk this summer.

This deal would have made a lot more sense last year, because then we could have re-signed Mayo.

Post #42 » by **jman3134** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:53 am

Why do this now? Why dick around with the team in the middle of the season? Either someone wanted to be moved, Hollins wanted someone gone, or the new ownership just doesn't GAF about continuity and just assumes that any form of "efficient" production from Rudy's spot will automatically make us a better team. That might be true assuming he continued to play at a career low efficiency, but I am not comfortable with the idea that Prince's corpse (along with some bench help and an increased role for Conley, Gasol and Randolph) is going to make us much better on offense.

I'm obviously pretty skeptical about the effectiveness of this trade. But I'm actually most pissed off about the message ownership is sending the fans right now considering they've basically just dumped a whole bunch of salary and totally busted up the squad right in the middle of our best season ever.

I want to echo much of what you are saying here. I'm extremely disappointed in the Grizzlies organization and feel let down as a fan of the team. Why in the world would they trade Gay for virtually nothing? Ed Davis is a backup with some athleticism, Tayshaun Prince is worthless, Austin Daye might as well be cut, and the 2nd round pick is also useless. We didn't build for our future and we are worse in the present. The only thing this did was lower salary. Sure, Gay was not worth the money we paid him. However, keeping him so that we can have one playoff series with everyone healthy was worth waiting until the end of the season. They obviously know very little about finance or business in general. You trade when his stock is high, not the lowest point since his rookie year.

greenandgold · Post #43 » by **greenandgold** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:10 am

Look at it from Hollinger's perspective. Memphis got a steal. Rudy Gay just cannot shoot (47.8% true shooting percentage) and his overall production is below league average PER.

Prince is going to give you 90% of Gay's production, and he's much more solid on defense. Davis is an excellent young big, very productive with 18.19 PER and 57% true shooting percentage.

Let Toronto be the dumb team to take on the flashy, big contract, big name guy who actually just can't put the ball in the hoop efficiently.

HoodluM- · Post #44 » by **HoodluM-** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:17 am

I'd really like to see how well Tayshaun is playing these days before fully evaluating this trade for my Grizz, but to me this looks a lot like the 2011 team with Prince plugged in for Battier. Grizz still neeed a shooter still who can truly stretch the floor, but if that piece can be found it gets pretty exciting when you consider the acquisition of Ed Davis, who I think will be a solid big some day.

I do agree that it's kind of dumb to move Rudy mid season. I guess they truly weren't that confident in him getting them over the hump. I wonder how much input Hollins had in this...

pickIBL · Post #45 » by **pickIBL** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:31 am

Ed Davis has been looking pretty damn good recently. Prince can still play and he has championship experience. I get the issues with Rudy Gay and why the franchise thought they weren't getting what they were paying for with him.

It just seemed like the franchise is playing well and just about anyone was available if they could save a buck. And with the team doing well so far into the season this is a weird time for a trade.

I'd just worry as a fan that the club is going to pinch pennies and not put up when they have a real chance to win it.

Post #46 » by **jman3134** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:44 am

greenandgold wrote:Look at it from Hollinger's perspective. Memphis got a steal. Rudy Gay just cannot shoot (47.8% true shooting percentage) and his overall production is below league average PER.

Prince is going to give you 90% of Gay's production, and he's much more solid on defense. Davis is an excellent young big, very productive with 18.19 PER and 57% true shooting percentage.

Let Toronto be the dumb team to take on the flashy, big contract, big name guy who actually just can't put the ball in the hoop efficiently.

That's the problem with some of these advanced stats guys- they lack foresight. With some of the best interior offensive bigs in the league in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies needed shooters who could stretch the defense and prevent teams from collapsing down low. They traded Gay (who has not been reliable this season, but would have likely gravitated towards the mean in terms of his percentages) and Wayne Ellington (our best three point shooter) to cut salary. That's not to mention Speights, who is able to stretch defenses with his mid range jumper. We are left with no shooters and we added a washed up defender with no gas left in the tank (Prince), an underachieving scrub who was not able to earn minutes on a bottom feeder, a 2nd (not a 1st) round pick in probably the worst draft in the last 10 years, and a backup power forward. (when we already give minutes to Gasol, Randolph, and Arthur) We addressed no need and got worse at the very positions we need the most help in.

At the very least, we should not have made the Cavs trade and dumped most of our bench, if we were going to go ahead and pull the trigger on a Rudy Gay deal.

Looking at absurd stats like PER halfway through the season says absolutely nothing b/c of the sample size. Sure, Rudy Gay has not been very efficient over the course of his career. However, he adds value in that he was the only player who could create his own shot on the Grizzlies. Now they are left with a stagnant offensive team with the exception of Randolph and Gasol. And, when they go cold, they are going to put everything on Mike Conley's back. That's not fair and he knows it. (as evinced by his "Wow" response on twitter after learning about the trade)

It's one thing to analyze empty numbers. In this case the advanced stats do not speak to the stagnant offensive system that the Grizzlies run at times, which does not properly compliment its bigs. Rudy Gay has been inefficient because he has not been playing to his strengths. He likes to work in the post, and with two allstar level post players, there is no room for him to create his shot. The spacing is clearly off, and the lineups should reflect this fact. We needed a stretch four to compliment Gay.

True shooting % also says nothing about the long term implications of this and the other trade. We gave away a future first round pick to Cleveland and picked up a 2nd rounder. That is not similar value. Tayshaun Prince is on his last legs as a player in this league imo. Then you have Randolph and Tony Allen who are getting older. Point being, we are an aging roster.

Looking ahead, what are we going to do with the extra cap space? Allow our new owners to pocket it (the most likely scenario). Or are we going to overpay for a subpar free agent? Our team has a history of not being able to attract top name free agents. There's no point to adding cap space when you are trading away draft picks (and picking up worse ones in return) and do not have the market to appeal to a superstar free agent.

mid-post · Post #47 » by **mid-post** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:27 am

jman3134 wrote:
greenandgold wrote:Look at it from Hollinger's perspective. Memphis got a steal. Rudy Gay just cannot shoot (47.8% true shooting percentage) and his overall production is below league average PER.

Prince is going to give you 90% of Gay's production, and he's much more solid on defense. Davis is an excellent young big, very productive with 18.19 PER and 57% true shooting percentage.

Let Toronto be the dumb team to take on the flashy, big contract, big name guy who actually just can't put the ball in the hoop efficiently.

That's the problem with some of these advanced stats guys- they lack foresight. With some of the best interior offensive bigs in the league in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies needed shooters who could stretch the defense and prevent teams from collapsing down low. They traded Gay (who has not been reliable this season, but would have likely gravitated towards the mean in terms of his percentages) and Wayne Ellington (our best three point shooter) to cut salary. That's not to mention Speights, who is able to stretch defenses with his mid range jumper. We are left with no shooters and we added a washed up defender with no gas left in the tank (Prince), an underachieving scrub who was not able to earn minutes on a bottom feeder, a 2nd (not a 1st) round pick in probably the worst draft in the last 10 years, and a backup power forward. (when we already give minutes to Gasol, Randolph, and Arthur) We addressed no need and got worse at the very positions we need the most help in.

At the very least, we should not have made the Cavs trade and dumped most of our bench, if we were going to go ahead and pull the trigger on a Rudy Gay deal.

Looking at absurd stats like PER halfway through the season says absolutely nothing b/c of the sample size. Sure, Rudy Gay has not been very efficient over the course of his career. However, he adds value in that he was the only player who could create his own shot on the Grizzlies. Now they are left with a stagnant offensive team with the exception of Randolph and Gasol. And, when they go cold, they are going to put everything on Mike Conley's back. That's not fair and he knows it. (as evinced by his "Wow" response on twitter after learning about the trade)

It's one thing to analyze empty numbers. In this case the advanced stats do not speak to the stagnant offensive system that the Grizzlies run at times, which does not properly compliment its bigs. Rudy Gay has been inefficient because he has not been playing to his strengths. He likes to work in the post, and with two allstar level post players, there is no room for him to create his shot. The spacing is clearly off, and the lineups should reflect this fact. We needed a stretch four to compliment Gay.

True shooting % also says nothing about the long term implications of this and the other trade. We gave away a future first round pick to Cleveland and picked up a 2nd rounder. That is not similar value. Tayshaun Prince is on his last legs as a player in this league imo. Then you have Randolph and Tony Allen who are getting older. Point being, we are an aging roster.

Looking ahead, what are we going to do with the extra cap space? Allow our new owners to pocket it (the most likely scenario). Or are we going to overpay for a subpar free agent? Our team has a history of not being able to attract top name free agents. There's no point to adding cap space when you are trading away draft picks (and picking up worse ones in return) and do not have the market to appeal to a superstar free agent.

And 1.
If we don't make another deal, this roster makes no sense at all.

darkangle901 · Post #48 » by **darkangle901** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:51 am

Best case scenario? 2011 Randolph shows up and we go deep into the playoffs.

That might allow us to deal Randolph next year for a wing scorer, for example if Indiana gets desperate for more interior scoring and decides Granger is expendable with Paul George in tow.

I honestly doubt it though. Randolph's best days are likely behind him. And with Gasol and Conley in their primes, the pressure will be on to find a wing player of similar age - a Manu Ginobili to Gasol's Duncan and Conley's Parker - so to speak.

I think last year proved that Rudy can be pretty effective if Randolph is out of the picture, given that last year was a franchise best in terms of win %. The team should have dealt Randolph for whatever (I'm sure the Bucks would have given up Ilyasova and Udrih, and we probably could have gotten Prince for Udrih's expiring contract).

But Conley, Gay, and Gasol should have been the core we settled on, given that Gay is only 26 and will retain his trade value for at least 2-3 years. We could have given them another season or two and if it didn't work out, THEN deal gay for a draft pick package or a young swingman.

I feel this situation has been terribly mismanaged.

One positive: Gay could launch Toronto into the playoffs, ruining the value of one of Oklahoma City's assets (they own Toronto's 1st rounder courtesy of the Kyle Lowry and James Harden trades).

Post #49 » by **jman3134** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:58 am

^ Oklahoma City's draft position is the least of our concerns at this point. They have talented players like Jeremy Lamb, who might start for a non-playoff team, in the D League. At the end of the day, they play Westbrook and Durant.

And, we counter with quality interior players, but no outside shooting and no one that can create his own shot.

darkangle901 · Post #50 » by **darkangle901** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:39 am

jman3134 wrote:^ Oklahoma City's draft position is the least of our concerns at this point. They have talented players like Jeremy Lamb, who might start for a non-playoff team, in the D League. At the end of the day, they play Westbrook and Durant.

And, we counter with quality interior players, but no outside shooting and no one that can create his own shot.

Yeah, but the last thing the rest of the Western Conference needs is for the Thunder to wind up with a top pick and nab an all-star-potential big like Cody Zeller.

It was more meant in jest, anyway.

Nebula1 · Post #51 » by **Nebula1** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:31 pm

I like that Austin Daye was included. He could prove to be a nice piece for Memphis.

david5773 · Post #52 » by **david5773** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:30 pm

We the toronto fans are furious that Ed got traded. You guys should really feel lucky, the kid has serious potential and was our brightest spot this year. Good luck with the kid he has good heart and has established good/friendly atmosphere in toronto. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he makes the all-star team one day. He drops 14/8 effortlessly.

greenandgold · Post #53 » by **greenandgold** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:43 pm

The Cleveland and Toronto deals are 2 separate issues. The Cleveland deal was a pure salary dump, while giving up future draft assets: blame the owner for being too cheap to pay the luxury tax.

The Toronto deal makes sense. Gay's a better version of Jeff Green: wonderful athlete, who looks very smooth and skilled, but just doesn't put the ball into the hoop efficiently and isn't a difference-maker on defense. Memphis has been a very good team mostly because of the high PER contributions of Gasol, Randolph and Conley, all efficient 2-way players. They've been a good team in spite of how badly Gay's played this year.

You'll see, Memphis won't skip a beat after this trade. They'll be dangerous in the playoffs and will have an awesome big man rotation for the next couple of years. Davis is a better player than Gay right now.

Toronto gets worse, losing 2 of its most efficient offensive players while hoping Gay somehow magically turns around his game and starts putting the ball into the hoop.

Magicalltheway · Post #54 » by **Magicalltheway** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:00 pm

I will never understand this trade by Memphis. I mean Gay is clearly the best player in this trade, why would you trade the best player on your team to shed salary. Teams shed salary so they can create cap room to buy players such as Gay. If the organization is worried about paying money to their best player why bother own an NBA team. this trade was absolutely (Please Use More Appropriate Word). No way Memphis has improved. I feel for you guys, Gay was the reason you guys have been the surprise of the league in the past few years.

wajr · Post #55 » by **wajr** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:32 pm

david5773 wrote:We the toronto fans are furious that Ed got traded. You guys should really feel lucky, the kid has serious potential and was our brightest spot this year. Good luck with the kid he has good heart and has established good/friendly atmosphere in toronto. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he makes the all-star team one day. He drops 14/8 effortlessly.

Speak for yourself. We just traded Ed Davis for Rudy Gay. Ill do that every day of the week and ten times on Sunday. Salary implications be damned, we needed some star power and a goto scorer. I believe Rudy fits that bill and he will be rejuvenated playing with Lowry in TO.

EDIT: Ed Davis will not become an all star. A serviceable big? Yes. All star is a real reach for a PF like Eddy.

mid-post · Post #56 » by **mid-post** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:58 pm

greenandgold wrote:The Toronto deal makes sense. Gay's a better version of Jeff Green: wonderful athlete, who looks very smooth and skilled, but just doesn't put the ball into the hoop efficiently and isn't a difference-maker on defense. Memphis has been a very good team mostly because of the high PER contributions of Gasol, Randolph and Conley, all efficient 2-way players.

Gay is a two way player. Those guys' "PER" all probably take a significant hit with an increased offensive role.

You'll see, Memphis won't skip a beat after this trade. They'll be dangerous in the playoffs and will have an awesome big man rotation for the next couple of years. Davis is a better player than Gay right now.

Toronto gets worse, losing 2 of its most efficient offensive players while hoping Gay somehow magically turns around his game and starts putting the ball into he hoop.

Sorry, you sound like a bad parody of a Hollinger acolyte. Someone who doesn't watch a team or understand personnel issues, but somehow thinks that simply looking at some "advanced" statistics holds the key to understanding what it takes to put together a contender.

Memphis may have gotten value for Gay, but that doesn't mean they'll be any better this season, in the playoffs or next season. All the pieces we got are either redundant or inferior and I have this real dread that Toronto and Memphis have undone what they should be trying to accomplish with both these teams.

jefe · Post #57 » by **jefe** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:46 pm

Magicalltheway wrote:I will never understand this trade by Memphis. I mean Gay is clearly the best player in this trade, why would you trade the best player on your team to shed salary. Teams shed salary so they can create cap room to buy players such as Gay. If the organization is worried about paying money to their best player why bother own an NBA team. this trade was absolutely (Please Use More Appropriate Word). No way Memphis has improved. I feel for you guys, Gay was the reason you guys have been the surprise of the league in the past few years.

I understand your point, but let's get one thing straight: Rudy was not the best player on the team or the reason we were the surprise of the league the last few years. In fact, Memphis's step on to the national scene occurred in a playoff run that Rudy missed due to injury.

mercury · Post #58 » by **mercury** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:59 pm

Tay is all about making the right play... if you're solely looking at stats you're missing his true value... he doesn't force shots... he should make everyone better by finding the best option.

greenandgold · Post #59 » by **greenandgold** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:24 pm

It's not stat geekery, it's the consensus opinion among informed NBA observers:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-o ... e-rudy-gay

No one, including the Grizzlies blogger, actually thinks Rudy Gay is worth his contract. Gay's per-minute stats are equivalent to those of Michael Beasley! He takes a lot of shots but doesn't make enough of them. That's the definition of inefficiency.

The proof will be in the pudding of how Memphis and Toronto perform after this trade. I think Memphis will be dangerous in the playoffs with excellent contributions by Prince and Davis. Toronto will sink deeper into the lottery with Gay launching missed mid-range shots galore, as he's been doing for the last 2 years.

greenandgold · Post #60 » by **greenandgold** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:30 pm

Rudy Gay is the ultimate example of how appearances do not equal reality. Gay looks and moves like he should be a perennial all-star, he's obviously a wonderful athlete, but the ball just doesn't go through the hoop.

The guy's shooting 40.8% from the field, 31% from 3-point range and doesn't get to the line very often. 47% true shooting percentage. God-awful.

Sure Gay is able to "create" shot attempts for himself, but the ball doesn't go through the hoop! That's a problem for a max-salary player.