Post#7 » by RyanStorm » Fri Feb 1, 2013 12:55 am
No one has a bench like we do, they aren't deep with only 6 main players(worst bench in the league). Burks and Favors are key to the future(so is Hayward, he is like our Kyrie), we need to play them every night and will help outbeat POR bench. Their 5 starters are the top 5 players on their team. Our bench is #5, their #30, this is the best spot to beat them, although their top 3 players play 38 minutes. Tins and Wats have no way to conceal Lillard who is a scoring monster, and only Burks is good enough to compete against him and keep up with him all night. Millsap and Jefferson need to secure the paint vs Aldridge who is their highest scorer who makes his living on the jump shot from the left side, and in the paint, not to mention Hickson. Batum and Mathews are perimeter shooters and have the jump shot also.
Its a real high scoring small group, with the 6th man and the starters(which is their top 6 scorers), make up 90% of their points(87.8 of 97.1), while our top 6 shooters(who are playing tonight), make up 68% of the points(67.5 of 98.3), but of course Mo's and now Haywards points have shifted to others.
Lillard/Batum/Aldridge average 54 points, compared to Al/Paul/Foye average 44. Mathews and Hickson are making 28, while Marvin and Tinsley are making 12.8. This is over 20 points made by their starters over our starters. And our bench is only outscoring their bench by 20 points. So for 38 minutes of the game, they will be outscoring us by 20, and for 10 minutes we will be outscoring them by 20. So not only will our bench need to come in and all have big nights during bench vs bench, but our starters are going to need to play the toughest defense, to keep us ahead of the game. Of course our bench will play their starters, which is nice, but my clutch group is the best defense we got for this team.
My Predicted Lineups in Order:
Tins/Foye/Marvin/Paul/Jefferson (typical starters)
Wats/Foye/Carroll/Favors/Jefferson (1st rotation)
Wats/Burks/Carroll/Favors/Kanter (2nd Unit)
Burks/Carroll/Favors/Millsap/Jefferson (Clutch)
The spread is Utah by 5, which means that 4 points are added on top of our 1 point average advantage, because of the 7th man, the home crowd(harpring calls the crowd the 6th man, but that doesn't make sense. I call it the 7th man)
This should be first to 100...but with this team, we can't slip for even one possession in the 4th...Even a 10pt lead with 2 minutes left means nothing to them, even if its 101 to 91(there more likely to win if down by more in the 4th cause they have crazy comebacks). They will catch up if were not playing defense on every possession. I mean Aldridge made a 3pt'er and then a buzzer beat jump shot to win their last game....so anything can happen.