Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nerlens finishes with 11 blocks. Five of which came after he picked up his fourth foul. Absolutely ridiculous. He's an even better shot blocker than Anthony Davis was. How bizarre that Kentucky would land those two players in back to back years. Might be another ten or fifteen years before we see another one like them.

Serge Ibaka doesn't block shots any better than Noel. Noel also disrupts passing lanes with steals. Nerlens lacks body strength to keep the big guys from going at him, but he is a disruptive player in a class by himself defensively.

What I think about is how Len, ironically, took it to Noel and Stein and had his best game. Tall, lanky guy was able to go right at tall, lanky.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ruzious, I think Kentucky's guard situation isn't as good this year as it was last year.

It sounds surprising now considering how much he struggled early, but last year Teague was a more mature playmaker than Goodwin or Harrow are and it was a huge help having a wing that could handle the ball and facilitate the offense in MKG. They were a better transition team and a better passing team last year (among other things). Goodwin is almost a pure slasher and scorer at this point.

Noel is tailor-made to catch and throw down oops, though probably not as gifted as AD was. AD had the best hands I think I've ever seen on a big man.

I think Kentucky's guards have struggled to get Nerlens the ball in general. It's only been the past few games they've started to actually feed him on the low block in good spots to let him go and do some work, though part of that could also be Nerlens has just now started to become comfortable as a scorer. I think Len is having similar problems with ineffective guard play at Maryland.

+1

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

No superstar. One rock solid prospect at C. A bunch of solid role players to be found 2-20. You can get the same quality of player at #12 you can get at #2. Not a deep draft. I don't expect too many 2nd round gems to be found and there will likely be a relatively high number of 1st round busts or disappointments.

Tier Two
C Noel

Tier Three
F Zeller
C Len
F Porter
G Goodwin
G Smart
G McCollum
G Burke
G/F Muhammad

Tier Four
G McLemore
G Oladipo
F Bennett
F Austin
F Polythress
C Olynyk
C Withey
C Goubert
G Young
F McAdoo

Tier Five
G Pressey
F McDermott
F Mitchell
F Nash
C Plumlee
G Paul
C Dieng
G Carter-Williams
G Franklin
F Thomas
F Leslie
C Young

Dat, I like Noel, Len, Smart, and Zeller. I think Zeller is underrated offensively. Oladipo is really rising fast in my eyes. I would bump Brandon Paul and Doug McDermott up. I would bump Burke down and leave McCollum there. CJ McCollum is very talented. This year I think one of the big guys is going to turn into a stud down the road. The problem is I don't know which one. Austin doesn't have the strength and feistiness on defense, but he's smooth.

I think Andre Roberson is a tier three player and a sure-fire, solid NBA player. He and Jamaal Franklin board really well and they're the type guys I think will surprise at the next level.

Dat, I think you're way too hard on Plumlee. I think he's a tier four, if not a three. McLemore I would bump up. Thomas is putting up great offense this year. Another guy I think can play well and might be a five is Solomon Hill of Arizona. Isaiah Canaan belongs, somewhere, even if he is a 2 guard.

Great list, Dat! This the time I start paying more attention to NCAA ballers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Shabazz is a crazy player in that I thought he was a driving athletic dunking SF who lacked an outside game. But I was wrong. He's shooting 50% from 3. He pretty much has a complete offensive game. Very impressed. He proved me wrong.

Shabazz is really good. He's Manu or Harden-esque with all of his different scoring tools coming from that left hand.

1.) Good spot up shooter from anywhere on the floor.
2.) has a mid range game off the dribble.
3.) Can get to the rim and has a variety of finishes.
4.) Can post up and shoot a really nice jump hook.

I believe most prospects do not come in with anywhere near his array of scoring skills. He's also got an NBA ready body. If he goes to a team that will feature him and give him minutes early, he could make an impact and be a 20 ppg scorer as a rookie. He's a born scorer with an extremely aggressive go to mentality.

But, the flip side of that is he can stop the ball and be a black hole. If you pass it to him, he's usually going to take a shot. And he's an acceptable rebounder for a college SF, but if he's not scoring and getting a good amount of shots, he can struggle to make an impact. Plus he's a little bit short for the SF position in the NBA. Not too big a deal but there could be some problems matching up with some of the king sized SFs of the league defensively.

I've come around to thinking Nerlens is a better value overall. He's gotten so much better since January started and he was already good before. He can get four shots and still make a gigantic impact on a game. He's a gifted true center, which are so much harder to find than wings. He's a better athlete for his position and has a higher ceiling most likely. He's got a terrific frame and has the potential to be very physically overwhelming with his length and speed and athleticism. And he's got a growing offensive game with some back to the basket moves--solid hands and shooting touch, very quick feet, jump hooks with both hands and a running hook I've seen him hit with his left hand.

And he's actually a pretty skilled passer that can facilitate some offense from the top of the key like Noah and Marc Gasol do. He's unselfish and keeps the ball moving. He's so tall he sees the floor well.

Nerlens is the best Boston area prospect since Pat Ewing and I think there are quite a few similarities between them as freshmen.

Of course Nerlens and Shabazz are probably going to go #1 & #2. I'm thinking we're going to need to get lucky with the ping pong balls to get either and I wouldn't bet anything on us ever getting a lucky break. I don't see Nerlens falling out of the top two at all. Maybe Shabazz could if teams don't like his size or think he's just a scorer. I can't really see Zeller going ahead of Shabazz. McLemore or Len could if either show out down the stretch of the season and have big time tourney performances. I don't think that's going to happen with Len. I think it'll probably go:

1.) Noel
2.) McLemore or Shabazz
3.) McLemore or Shabazz
4.) Zeller
5.) Len

Assuming all declare.

And I think we get to high 20s or low 30s in win total and end up picking around 7th-12th.

Until I see a little more, I say go with the big guys over the little. I would bump Zeller ahead of McLemore or Shabazz, because I see Zeller as a 20ppg NBA player, easily. Len is gigantic and has a fire about him, even if he's week. His mobility translates to easy hoops. I would take him and run the risk of being very disappointed before I would go small. McLemore might be a 25 ppg player in the NBA. I could be wrong not to consider him the top pick, as nbadraft.net currently does. My first impression was that Marcus Smart would be a leader and a great NBA player, even if his offense is lacking. As I think about it now, McLemore is on cruise control, just fitting in with a great team.

Shabazz, I need to watch more but he's a Mitch Ritchmond/Dominique Wilkins type. He might not do anything but score but he does that with ease. I guess Ritchmond played decent defense early on and Wilkins had such energy that Muhammed might not deserve the comparisons yet.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yay! Let's talk about the white guys! (CCJ says, " 'bout d@mn time!" )

WHat do people think of Jeff Withey. Strikes me as a Brendan Haywood type -- in a good way? Dat? Sev? Ruz? YODA?

Fish, I'm late on the draw, but have been a big Withey fan, although that has to be kept in the context of proper expectations. I do think he will be a Haywood-type player - and remember, Haywood was the 20th pick in his draft, and traded before he made it to training camp. I expect Withey will likely also be a pick in the 20s, and may have a similar impact, though probably not quite as good as Haywood (could have been - still bitter he was so underused for all those years on the Wiz...)

His defensive impact is really quite remarkable. Earlier in the season, his block rate was up around 20%. That meant that he blocked one out of every five opponents' 2-point shots while he was on the court. That's 20% of shots that have no chance of going in - a huge impact to the opponents' efg. (He's back "down" to 15.4%, but is still - believe it or not - ahead of Noel in that stat, as he was ahead of Davis last year.)

He has an offensive game that could be described as "serviceable" (at best), but he's not a self-check. I worry a bit about him being able to hold position on the block in the NBA, but that should come with time. I think he'd be ideal next to Nene (or a younger, reasonable facsimile thereof). I'd be very much in favor of moving up from our 2nd rounder(s) to the 20s to get him if he's still there.

BTW, I have been harping on guys who "break out" as Juniors & Seniors while hardly seeing the court as Freshmen/Sophomores. Certainly, Withey fits that mold. But my point was only that if you draft them in the Lottery and expect them to be stars, you will inevitably be disappointed. But if you want a ready-made role player, the 4-year college kid who improved every year is as sure a thing as you could hope for.

Caught Wally Szczerbiak on radio saying he saw much of himself in McDermott. Glancing at stats I'd forgotten (never knew) Wallyworld was a fairly solid rebounder in college. I did recall he was surprisingly decent scoring in the paint, he'd be somewhat ignored on the interior since he was known as an outside gunner and would come off a screen for a close-in finish. Haven't watched Creighton at all so I can't form a judgement on McDermott. I've been watching his stats since last year but have no sight read on him yet. Wally says he'll succeed at the next level though FWIW.

Great call on WallyWorld, doc - I hadn't thought of that comparison before. I remember him as a PF in college (Miami/OH, right?) and was surprised when he became a SF/SG in the NBA. But he did all right for himself, and still kept some of the things he did well, like rebounding, when he moved to a more perimeter-based role.

I don't have the level of certainty that CCJ has on McDermott, but I do like him and would also be glad to see him on the Wiz. If that 3-point shooting translates to the pros, there's no reason to think he couldn't be at least as effective as a Steve Novak (to extend that previous analog based solely on their shared melanin-deficiency), and possibly could be a WallyWorld type of player. Would make a great balance at SF to Ariza (or, again, a younger facsimile) as a 3-and-board guy to go with a 3-and-D guy.

Honestly, after Noel and Porter (and maybe Shabazz), I don't have a ton of interest right now in the top of the draft. If we can't get one of those guys, a move back to get a combination including Withey and/or McDermott wouldn't be a bad thing, IMO.

Withey impressed me by holding his own with Davis last year. No doubt in my mind Withey will be a serviceable NBA C but I don't think he's heavy enough to be the defensive stalwart Brendan Haywood was early in his career. Withey will do well to surpass Cole Aldrich in the NBA. They are similar players IMO.

McDermott has an efficiency that I love. I think he's possibly going to be rejected more in the NBA than I have been by my two ex-wives over the years. His post moves won't all work out. However, one thing the guy can do is get his shot off. When he does, his shot goes in. McDermott is much like Wally S. and I think he's going to be surprisingly effective in the NBA. The problem is the physicality of the NBA game does not permit guys like him and Linas Kleiza to stay on the court because they suffer defensively.

McDermott will be a rich man's Ryan Gomes IMO. My real interest in McDermott is he can shoot and he has previously teamed with Beal in international junior play. Doug McDermott is just the opposite of Jan Vesely--he's highly, highly skilled but not athletic. McDermott can make any shot and he is an extremely high IQ basketball player. He keeps moving on offense and he knows what to do with the ball. Jan keeps moving on offense but if he's not dunking he doesn't want the ball. Put them together and I think the second unit improves in time.

[hands11]

From the Wall thread since this will get lost when looking back.

hands11 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 9:36 pm

I know some have said this is a weak draft but I see more then a few names on this list that I would want on my team.

C.J. McCollum
Otto Porter
Victor Oladipo

And one of Nerlens Noel, Mason Plumlee

We will have a first, I high second and a late second. Plus maybe they can find a way to get another first.

Currently, Draft X has us taking these two in the second.

Patric Young C
20 years old; 6'9"; 249 lbs.
Florida, Junior

DeWayne Dedmon C
23 years old; 7'0"; 255 lbs.
USC, Junior

[kirubel94]

What is impressive about Nerlens Noel is how he keeps his body off of players when attempting a block, truly remarkable. He also get up from the floor very quickly. He needs to get in the gym and work on that free-throw and also get bigger. He has a chance to be a Tyson Chandler/Dwight type of player, it is really up to him.

[Ruzious]

Nerlens finishes with 11 blocks. Five of which came after he picked up his fourth foul. Absolutely ridiculous. He's an even better shot blocker than Anthony Davis was. How bizarre that Kentucky would land those two players in back to back years. Might be another ten or fifteen years before we see another one like them.

Serge Ibaka doesn't block shots any better than Noel. Noel also disrupts passing lanes with steals. Nerlens lacks body strength to keep the big guys from going at him, but he is a disruptive player in a class by himself defensively.

What I think about is how Len, ironically, took it to Noel and Stein and had his best game. Tall, lanky guy was able to go right at tall, lanky.

That was Noel's first college basketball game. He's a much better player now than he was then and probably 10 lbs heavier. I'd question whether Len has improved even a little bit since then.

[Ruzious]

Dat, I like Noel, Len, Smart, and Zeller. I think Zeller is underrated offensively. Oladipo is really rising fast in my eyes. I would bump Brandon Paul and Doug McDermott up. I would bump Burke down and leave McCollum there. CJ McCollum is very talented. This year I think one of the big guys is going to turn into a stud down the road. The problem is I don't know which one. Austin doesn't have the strength and feistiness on defense, but he's smooth.

I think Andre Roberson is a tier three player and a sure-fire, solid NBA player. He and Jamaal Franklin board really well and they're the type guys I think will surprise at the next level.

Dat, I think you're way too hard on Plumlee. I think he's a tier four, if not a three. McLemore I would bump up. Thomas is putting up great offense this year. Another guy I think can play well and might be a five is Solomon Hill of Arizona. Isaiah Canaan belongs, somewhere, even if he is a 2 guard.

Great list, Dat! This the time I start paying more attention to NCAA ballers.

I concur with most of what you said there, but I noticed that this is at least the 2nd time you've knocked Burke. What it is about him that you don't like? I still have him ranked as the 2nd best prospect in this draft. I don't see a weakness in his game or his athleticism. He's short, but he's not really small. He looks stronger than a lot of NBA PG's - including Chris Paul.

Speaking of Paul, Brandon Paul is maybe the most inconsistent college player I've seen. When he's on, he's a brilliant 2-way player. Problem is, he's usually not on.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Mid-lotto is where I'd take him. Maybe starting at 6. I'm not sure who I like in the top 3. Zeller is growing on me. We need some skill up front.

There are a lot of good forwards potentially in that mid-late lottery range.

Porter is more of a pure 3 at his weight. McAdoo is a tweener 3/4. Same for Bennett and Poythress. Tony Mitchell is probably a PF. I guess Plumlee is a PF, though I like him least of the group.

I think we could go with almost any one of those guys and get a solid eventual starter.

Top 3 I like Noel for sure and then probably Zeller and Shabazz. But I'm a little wary of Shabazz. He's better than McLemore today, but is he a better fit for us? Will he be better than McLemore in three years? I love that Shabazz will work his ass off to get open and call for the ball all 35 seconds of pretty much every possession. I wish McLemore would do the same. But I definitely don't love his passing. If you pass him the ball you will do so knowing he's probably going to shoot. The other guys at UCLA seem to ignore him while they try and run their plays and move the ball between the four of them. Their PG situation is pretty bad. But I also think it's a sign of how annoyed they get with Shabazz.

It's really hard to build a really successful and cohesive offense with a wing like that. It's certainly not impossible. But things would just be a lot easier if Shabazz was a better passer.

That's why I'm weighing him against McLemore. McLemore is so much more patient and is such a better passer. Yet the flip side is he gets passive and disappears for long stretches, plants himself in a corner and doesn't really move until they call his number. We've already got too many guys who do that as is. Plus his on ball defense is pretty bad.

Plus McLemore is less of a 3 than Shabazz. He's very much more a classic off ball SG and having to go so small with the lineups to get him and Beal on the floor scares me. Not just from a length perspective, but a strength one. Both McLemore and Beal are just a little over 200 pounds. Wall is around that weight too.

I really want to like Len but he scares me. When I think about him just in terms of potential, I'm on board. Then when I see him play, I cool off. Best I can say is he's a very big project. I think he's got a bust factor the other four don't have. Their skills are such that they would have a regular role in pretty much any NBA rotation today. Not so for Len.

What surprises me about Len is he doesn't hit perimeter shots more easily. Len has some of the same issues Javale McGee does, in that he is light in the cakes. He's not strong enough to back down true bully bigs. Yet, Alex does have a nice shooting stroke from outside. The problem is that bigs like him tend not to be impact players. I agree that Len's got bust potential, stevemcqueen1.

What I also believe is Len plays with the some of the worst Gs in college basketball. Coach Turgeon is a defensive-minded coach. Len can run and he is really big. He is also really young. I would still take my chances on Alex with a top-5 pick, behind Noel, Zeller, and perhaps McLemore if Kansas wins it all and if he keeps shooting lights out.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dat, I like Noel, Len, Smart, and Zeller. I think Zeller is underrated offensively. Oladipo is really rising fast in my eyes. I would bump Brandon Paul and Doug McDermott up. I would bump Burke down and leave McCollum there. CJ McCollum is very talented. This year I think one of the big guys is going to turn into a stud down the road. The problem is I don't know which one. Austin doesn't have the strength and feistiness on defense, but he's smooth.

I think Andre Roberson is a tier three player and a sure-fire, solid NBA player. He and Jamaal Franklin board really well and they're the type guys I think will surprise at the next level.

Dat, I think you're way too hard on Plumlee. I think he's a tier four, if not a three. McLemore I would bump up. Thomas is putting up great offense this year. Another guy I think can play well and might be a five is Solomon Hill of Arizona. Isaiah Canaan belongs, somewhere, even if he is a 2 guard.

Great list, Dat! This the time I start paying more attention to NCAA ballers.

I concur with most of what you said there, but I noticed that this is at least the 2nd time you've knocked Burke. What it is about him that you don't like? I still have him ranked as the 2nd best prospect in this draft. I don't see a weakness in his game or his athleticism. He's short, but he's not really small. He looks stronger than a lot of NBA PG's - including Chris Paul.

Speaking of Paul, Brandon Paul is maybe the most inconsistent college player I've seen. When he's on, he's a brilliant 2-way player. Problem is, he's usually not on.

Ruz, I still haven't watched Burke but I am watching his numbers and taking in consideration he plays with 4 teammates who are currently hitting the college 3-point shot at better than .400.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2012/
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... elog/2013/

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/sch ... /2013.html

There is not much not to like from Burke this season. I have seen his shooting numbers fall in Big10 play, particularly on the road, but he's still hitting near .500FG and .400 3pt, both signs of great PG shooting. Burke's assist/turnover ratio is great. He doesn't put up active defensive stats and I believe he will be a floor manager/shooter at the next level.

My comment was on Dat's tiers and not the most informed comment I have made. My suspicion is that Burke is enjoying a huge bump in production due to playing with a loaded team, but he's definitely the leader who makes it go. I would not mind seeing the Wizards draft a guy like him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

For those who don't know my process well, I prefer to see the player through the numbers because looks can be deceiving.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Micheal Snaer could be a heck of a good pick from round 2. The Wizards could use him now.

DX compares him to DeShawn Stevenson. I agree.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Michael-Snaer-5687/

[jivelikenice]

CCJ, what's you take on Porter?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, what's you take on Porter?

I love his background and the way his game is evolving, jivelikence.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/high-sch ... 563d1.html

"I wish I had 100 of him," principal Eileen Owens said. "He is really a good kid. As principal I see bad and good, and I've never had a referral on him coming to the office for anything. He's just an all-around good kid, very polite. You'd never know he got all this publicity. If you didn't ask, he'd never say a word about it."

http://www.guhoyas.com/sports/m-baskbl/ ... 65068.html

In the state championship game as a senior, he scored 29 points and had 35 rebounds, breaking the school record for career rebounds, previously held by his father.

Porter could be a better prospect than Alex Len right now.

Porter's basketball development reminds me of the Williams sisters in tennis. Father knows best.

(If you hear that comparison or read it elsewhere, know I said it first. My blog will be around soon enough. I am tired of giving away free stuff to guys smart enough to get paid for my opinions.)

Otto Porter didn't go the AAU route and has been very well-prepared by rigorous training at home. His dad and uncles and cousins in small town Missouri all know how to ball. Porter will continue to get better and better and better because he's got a very strong family core.

He's rangy and developing his outside game. Porter is twice the perimeter shooter he was last season. What I wonder is that even at his height would Porter be better off at SG than SF, because he's not strong or physical defensively. Porter reminds me of Steve Smith. He's got a little George Gervin to his game. Porter might also score a lot like Kevin Martin as a pro.

I think Porter is going to fill out, develop his body because he is above all SMART, and that he's going to be a good scoring pro.

What is most impressive about Porter is how he elevates his team and his game every week. With each game he demonstrates why many draft analysts project him as a late lottery pick. At 6-9, Porter has the upper body strength to shake defenders off while moving to the basket. His wide wing-span and quickness also makes him devastating on defense. “When Otto’s at the four (position) he really causes some match-up problems,” said Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard.

Porter has five double-doubles already. He leads the team in scoring, rebounding, blocks, steals and is third in assists. He creates turnovers and transitions from defense to offense seamlessly. He’s that dream versatile big-man, who can score from anywhere on the floor.

Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketba ... kYTEtfl.99

Porter has some of the same skill set of a Larry Bird, who though he played SF for Boston, could have played PF or even SG. Otto Porter is nowhere near as tough or strong as Bird, and he does not have that kind of court vision. He is quicker, and similarly a leader, however. Porter will be a good pro and will not disappoint the Wizards if they pick him.

[jivelikenice]

I love his game and don't get why he's being type casted as a late lotto 3&D type. He will have a huge impact scoring, shooting, rebounding, and playing D as he fills out without being ball dominant, which makes him a a great fit with Wall & Beal. Thanks for the feedback

[hands11]

Oh yeah. I was sold on Potter the first time I saw him and bailed on Len after watching him. Len is not what we need.

One thing I have noticed is that there aren't a lot of 7-1 players in the league. 7-0 seems to be the cap. Any taller then that and they just start to get to lanky and injury prone.

Would be really nice to have a Georgetown kid here. That system is getting solid again now that Thompson Jr has settled in.

Always good to take good talent solid personality players from good systems.

And at 6-8, he has great size for a modern day SF.

Kind of little of a T Prince at this point. He will need to get stronger and improve his handles. I would like to see more skill as a ball handler. But he is still young.

Here is the question. Is he a better prospect then MKG ?

[TheBigThree]

I haven't been keeping up, Seth Curry is really supposed to go undrafted? Is it his age or what?

His stroke is absolutely amazing. Don't see how he won't contribute in the NBA.

[Wizardspride]

Here is the question. Is he a better prospect then MKG ?

I'm probably in the minority but imo, YES. Porter is a better prospect than MKG.

Yep. I said it....and that's not my local bias speaking either.

[Ruzious]

Here is the question. Is he a better prospect then MKG ?

I'm probably in the minority but imo, YES. Porter is a better prospect than MKG.

Yep. I said it....and that's not my local bias speaking either.

I am buying in to the Porter hype. One thing he did early against St. Johns that impressed me - he stretched out and used his excellent length to create a passing lane to an interior scorer - basically creating an easy basket for a teammate. He really plays both ends of the court very well and efficiently. And again, he looks so much stronger than last year.