Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ruz, I finally watched Burke closely.

SOLD

"Without a doubt, he will be a good NBA player." Dicky V

I concur.

Great step back. Great floor leader. Great competitive drive. Much stronger than I thought. NBA game might be better than college game. He won't be a lottery pick but he should be. Trey Burke controlled this game. He, Zeller, Oladipo, and even (I dissed MD) Mitch McGary were pretty impressive.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The best small in the NCAAs might be Marcus Smart. Bump him way up after today and the win over Kansas.

He's like a linebacker playing PG. Very impressive double back flips after the win, too. Smart is like a cross between Andre Miller and Lebron. I don't remember Oscar Robertson, but Smart is built like him IIRC. Does a little of everything.

[Dat2U]

Yeah, Smart is #1 on my Gs list at the moment, and that was before today's game! Smart reminds me a bit Deron Williams. He is a big linebacker type guard CCJ.

Burke looks good. A little small. I don't think he's the next Chris Paul tho... maybe Devin Harris at his best.

[Knighthonor]

edit

[Dat2U]

Worst case scenario in this draft is drafting 2nd or 3rd. I think Noel is clear cut. Everyone else is a mid-to-late lottery pick at best. Best case is either landing Noel at #1 or Porter at #5 or later. Zeller would be another guy I'd feel comfortable with at 5 or 6 as opposed to 2 or 3.

[dandrews]

Oladipo guarded 4 positions tonight and allowed 4 points on 45 possessions. Whoever gets this guy is getting an absolute stud on the defensive end

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Shabazz is a crazy player in that I thought he was a driving athletic dunking SF who lacked an outside game. But I was wrong. He's shooting 50% from 3. He pretty much has a complete offensive game. Very impressed. He proved me wrong.

Shabazz is really good. He's Manu or Harden-esque with all of his different scoring tools coming from that left hand.

1.) Good spot up shooter from anywhere on the floor.
2.) has a mid range game off the dribble.
3.) Can get to the rim and has a variety of finishes.
4.) Can post up and shoot a really nice jump hook.

I believe most prospects do not come in with anywhere near his array of scoring skills. He's also got an NBA ready body. If he goes to a team that will feature him and give him minutes early, he could make an impact and be a 20 ppg scorer as a rookie. He's a born scorer with an extremely aggressive go to mentality.

But, the flip side of that is he can stop the ball and be a black hole. If you pass it to him, he's usually going to take a shot. And he's an acceptable rebounder for a college SF, but if he's not scoring and getting a good amount of shots, he can struggle to make an impact. Plus he's a little bit short for the SF position in the NBA. Not too big a deal but there could be some problems matching up with some of the king sized SFs of the league defensively.

I've come around to thinking Nerlens is a better value overall. He's gotten so much better since January started and he was already good before. He can get four shots and still make a gigantic impact on a game. He's a gifted true center, which are so much harder to find than wings. He's a better athlete for his position and has a higher ceiling most likely. He's got a terrific frame and has the potential to be very physically overwhelming with his length and speed and athleticism. And he's got a growing offensive game with some back to the basket moves--solid hands and shooting touch, very quick feet, jump hooks with both hands and a running hook I've seen him hit with his left hand.

And he's actually a pretty skilled passer that can facilitate some offense from the top of the key like Noah and Marc Gasol do. He's unselfish and keeps the ball moving. He's so tall he sees the floor well.

Nerlens is the best Boston area prospect since Pat Ewing and I think there are quite a few similarities between them as freshmen.

Of course Nerlens and Shabazz are probably going to go #1 & #2. I'm thinking we're going to need to get lucky with the ping pong balls to get either and I wouldn't bet anything on us ever getting a lucky break. I don't see Nerlens falling out of the top two at all. Maybe Shabazz could if teams don't like his size or think he's just a scorer. I can't really see Zeller going ahead of Shabazz. McLemore or Len could if either show out down the stretch of the season and have big time tourney performances. I don't think that's going to happen with Len. I think it'll probably go:

1.) Noel
2.) McLemore or Shabazz
3.) McLemore or Shabazz
4.) Zeller
5.) Len

Assuming all declare.

And I think we get to high 20s or low 30s in win total and end up picking around 7th-12th.

Shabazz is a 6'6 SG...like Manu. We are only projecting him as a SF because we have Beal at the SG position. Most teams will draft him to play SG, and he will be dominant at that position. However, if we win the lotto, Noel would be my choice.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

Oladipo guarded 4 positions tonight and allowed 4 points on 45 possessions. Whoever gets this guy is getting an absolute stud on the defensive end

He's from PG; we go to the same church (St. Joseph's, Landover). Would be nice to have him on the team, very humble kid too.

[Ruzious]

Shabazz is a crazy player in that I thought he was a driving athletic dunking SF who lacked an outside game. But I was wrong. He's shooting 50% from 3. He pretty much has a complete offensive game. Very impressed. He proved me wrong.

Shabazz is really good. He's Manu or Harden-esque with all of his different scoring tools coming from that left hand.

1.) Good spot up shooter from anywhere on the floor.
2.) has a mid range game off the dribble.
3.) Can get to the rim and has a variety of finishes.
4.) Can post up and shoot a really nice jump hook.

I believe most prospects do not come in with anywhere near his array of scoring skills. He's also got an NBA ready body. If he goes to a team that will feature him and give him minutes early, he could make an impact and be a 20 ppg scorer as a rookie. He's a born scorer with an extremely aggressive go to mentality.

But, the flip side of that is he can stop the ball and be a black hole. If you pass it to him, he's usually going to take a shot. And he's an acceptable rebounder for a college SF, but if he's not scoring and getting a good amount of shots, he can struggle to make an impact. Plus he's a little bit short for the SF position in the NBA. Not too big a deal but there could be some problems matching up with some of the king sized SFs of the league defensively.

I've come around to thinking Nerlens is a better value overall. He's gotten so much better since January started and he was already good before. He can get four shots and still make a gigantic impact on a game. He's a gifted true center, which are so much harder to find than wings. He's a better athlete for his position and has a higher ceiling most likely. He's got a terrific frame and has the potential to be very physically overwhelming with his length and speed and athleticism. And he's got a growing offensive game with some back to the basket moves--solid hands and shooting touch, very quick feet, jump hooks with both hands and a running hook I've seen him hit with his left hand.

And he's actually a pretty skilled passer that can facilitate some offense from the top of the key like Noah and Marc Gasol do. He's unselfish and keeps the ball moving. He's so tall he sees the floor well.

Nerlens is the best Boston area prospect since Pat Ewing and I think there are quite a few similarities between them as freshmen.

Of course Nerlens and Shabazz are probably going to go #1 & #2. I'm thinking we're going to need to get lucky with the ping pong balls to get either and I wouldn't bet anything on us ever getting a lucky break. I don't see Nerlens falling out of the top two at all. Maybe Shabazz could if teams don't like his size or think he's just a scorer. I can't really see Zeller going ahead of Shabazz. McLemore or Len could if either show out down the stretch of the season and have big time tourney performances. I don't think that's going to happen with Len. I think it'll probably go:

1.) Noel
2.) McLemore or Shabazz
3.) McLemore or Shabazz
4.) Zeller
5.) Len

Assuming all declare.

And I think we get to high 20s or low 30s in win total and end up picking around 7th-12th.

Shabazz is a 6'6 SG...like Manu. We are only projecting him as a SF because we have Beal at the SG position. Most teams will draft him to play SG, and he will be dominant at that position. However, if we win the lotto, Noel would be my choice.

Noel would definitely be my choice. But when comparing Shabazz to Manu, at least keep in mind that Bazz is a good 50 lbs heavier than Manu when Manu came to the NBA. Bazz is a much bulkier guy, and he was measured with a 6'11.25 wingspan at age 18. There's no doubt imo he has the length and strength to play SF in the NBA.

[stevemcqueen1]

Shabazz is a 6'6 SG...like Manu. We are only projecting him as a SF because we have Beal at the SG position. Most teams will draft him to play SG, and he will be dominant at that position. However, if we win the lotto, Noel would be my choice.

Shabazz plays mostly at the 3 at UCLA. I'm not sure he's a clean fit at any position. Kind of a James Harden or Joe Johnson style swing man though he doesn't have their play making ability. Maybe some Paul Pierce in him. But again, not the passer Pierce is.

I have a hard time finding a really clean top level NBA player comparison for him. Someone said Michael Redd and I think that's the best I've heard.

I'd take Noel first overall as well. I think he ends up going first. Top four seems to be solidifying into Nerlens, Shabazz, Zeller, and McLemore.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, Smart is #1 on my Gs list at the moment, and that was before today's game! Smart reminds me a bit Deron Williams. He is a big linebacker type guard CCJ.

Burke looks good. A little small. I don't think he's the next Chris Paul tho... maybe Devin Harris at his best.

His PG skills are so far ahead of Harris', you can't reasonably compare the 2.

I'm not sure I get the comparisons, but Smart is a unique player and a unique person for an 18 year old. If he develops a consistent jump shot, the sky is the limit - as I said much earlier in this thread. And I'm still not sure he's a PG in the NBA.

[stevemcqueen1]

Worst case scenario in this draft is drafting 2nd or 3rd. I think Noel is clear cut. Everyone else is a mid-to-late lottery pick at best. Best case is either landing Noel at #1 or Porter at #5 or later. Zeller would be another guy I'd feel comfortable with at 5 or 6 as opposed to 2 or 3.

I would happily draft second or third. We could use any of Shabazz, Zeller, or McLemore IMO, though I would be inclined to try and trade McLemore if we could get a good deal from it.

I like Porter but I don't love him. I don't see any separation between him, Bennett, McAdoo, Mitchell, Poythress, McCollum, and Smart. I think he's still behind Len and Austin because their upside is so much greater than Porter's.

I think we could immediately use a player like Porter and I think he's got very little bust factor. But I think getting to Nick Batum would be Porter surpassing expectations. His best attributes are his length, his patience and IQ, his ability to snatch up loose balls, and his consistent jumper. I think all that pretty much ensures he'll be a productive and solid starting NBA SF provided he stays healthy. But his inability to create offense off the dribble, his lack of strength, his lack of athleticism, all give him a low ceiling compared to the other guys in his tier.

And I would definitely rather have any of the top four guys in the class than come away with just Porter.

The thing that appeals to me most about Porter is he's a pure SF that could help us right away, clean fit within our construction. But drafting mostly to fill immediate needs isn't a great way to approach the NBA draft. Long term, we could also use a face up forward at either forward spot that's creative so that our half court offense isn't totally reliant on Wall being in the game and being on point. We could use shooters at both the 3 and 4 and we will need a long term solution at the 5. We need a rebounder too. Porter solidifies that need for the shooting 3. But a creative face up forward that can shoot at the 3 or 4 would be more valuable and difficult to obtain.

What I'm hoping is we get a top four pick and spend it on one of the four big names and then we trade back into the mid to late lottery and get someone like McAdoo, Porter would probably be gone.

I'd be looking to deal away some of our young pieces and Ariza to consolidate the bench into a few good, key guys and make room for the development of a two man rookie class this season. My ideal scenario is probably that we get Noel or Zeller to be that long term 5 and then get another forward like Bennett, Porter, Mitchell, or McAdoo. All have different skill sets, but all would fit our needs at one of the forward spots IMO.

[stevemcqueen1]

Oladipo guarded 4 positions tonight and allowed 4 points on 45 possessions. Whoever gets this guy is getting an absolute stud on the defensive end

He was really good. Looks like a classic perimeter stopper and he's definitely an NBA caliber athlete. The development of his offensive game has been very encouraging. Definite first rounder. The quality of this class is looking much better than its reputation implies. There may only be one or two star players in it, maybe even none. But the depth of good talent is pretty deep depending on which underclassmen come out. I bet a lot of starters come out of this class and beyond that, I bet at least 20+ players from this class will be solid members of rotations around the league five years from now. Potentially getting a good player like Oladipo or Burke in the 20s is pretty nice.

[stevemcqueen1]

His PG skills are so far ahead of Harris', you can't reasonably compare the 2.

I'm not sure I get the comparisons, but Smart is a unique player and a unique person for an 18 year old. If he develops a consistent jump shot, the sky is the limit - as I said much earlier in this thread. And I'm still not sure he's a PG in the NBA.

Smart is really compelling. Not a burner, but a tremendous leaper and he's got a ton of strength. The intangibles look special. I think you're right that he's a unique player and he might not be an NBA PG. I'm getting a James Harden-like jack of all trades feeling from him. That kind of creativity and versatility would be great at any of the perimeter spots. I think his strength and his leaping ability could even allow you to go small and play him at SF from time to time despite his height.

It'd be nice to have a secondary playmaker in the half court to expand the potential of the offense. But given how poor a shooting team we are, I'm not sure we can take another player under 6'6 that isn't already a great shooter.

[hands11]

I think they should really consider trading down. I know people want Noel or Muhammad but...

I have proposed this idea in the past. Had we done it, we could have Nikola ( making 1.7M now and 3M in 2014/15) and Brooks instead of Ves.

But here is the other side of the logic. Not only could we get more players like Otta, Victor Oladipo, C.J. McCollum, Plumlee but they cost less.

I would like to see this team reload on the fly and in order to keep the cap number sound, it helps if you don't have to many top 3 picks. Wall is already expense compared for other productive rookies and he may expect a lot on an extension. Beal is signed to a more reasonable contract 4M so just the difference between #1 and #3 is a lot. Meanwhile, Lillard is a total steal as a value contract. He is making 3M now and in 2015/16 he will be making 4M

This team needs to upgrade talent at several positions and load up to start building the next wave of players for after some of these vet move on. Players like Booker and Martin are open roster spots. They need to plan for after Crawford because he isn't sticking around here.

Trade down our first for two firsts and trade up our two second plus some players for another. I would rather have three firsts in this draft verse 1 and 2 seconds.

[hands11]

Here is the question. Is he a better prospect then MKG ?

I'm probably in the minority but imo, YES. Porter is a better prospect than MKG.

Yep. I said it....and that's not my local bias speaking either.

Kind of interesting isn't it.

[pancakes3]

Re Smart: Is it cliche to take every toughnosed. strong, defensive 6'4 PG and make the Tony Allen comparison? Same school and everything.

Re: Oladipo: I know Sev's motto is to avoid growers and draft showers but DX lists him as the 21st overall which screams bargain. However, I don't know what more he'd bring to the squad than what Singleton already does.

Re: Porter: Love his game. Buying in that he'll be good. The question is, does he rate better than Webster, and would we be better off with Smart/Plumlee/bennet from the mid-lotto?

Re: Kentucky: Anyone drafting a player from UK other than Noel is a sucker. Goodwin and Poythress are not as good as the other Calipari prospects of late. They're practically invisible. Poythress is intriguing enough to picque your interest from time to time like he did with the LSU game but he disappears for very long stretches, only make brief appearances to be late on rotations and foul.

[Dat2U]

Yeah, Smart is #1 on my Gs list at the moment, and that was before today's game! Smart reminds me a bit Deron Williams. He is a big linebacker type guard CCJ.

Burke looks good. A little small. I don't think he's the next Chris Paul tho... maybe Devin Harris at his best.

His PG skills are so far ahead of Harris', you can't reasonably compare the 2.

I'm not sure I get the comparisons, but Smart is a unique player and a unique person for an 18 year old. If he develops a consistent jump shot, the sky is the limit - as I said much earlier in this thread. And I'm still not sure he's a PG in the NBA.

Burke reminds me of Harris at his best because he's a jitterbug, very quick and decisive with the ball. But he's also small and frail looking. While he may have more PG in him than Devin Harris he strikes me as a scorer that can create as opposed to a creator with scoring ability.

Watching Smart, he reminded me of Deron Williams because he's built like a tank and while he isn't necessarily explosive off the bounce, he's quick, agile and strong so he's a handful. Smart like Deron... had a ways to go before he was good pro. Deron was a bit overweight and needed some seasoning and didn't earn how to change speeds until his 2nd year in the NBA. I could see Smart similarly being a high pick and taking a year or two to develop and end up being a very good NBA player in time.

[Dat2U]

Worst case scenario in this draft is drafting 2nd or 3rd. I think Noel is clear cut. Everyone else is a mid-to-late lottery pick at best. Best case is either landing Noel at #1 or Porter at #5 or later. Zeller would be another guy I'd feel comfortable with at 5 or 6 as opposed to 2 or 3.

I would happily draft second or third. We could use any of Shabazz, Zeller, or McLemore IMO, though I would be inclined to try and trade McLemore if we could get a good deal from it.

I like Porter but I don't love him. I don't see any separation between him, Bennett, McAdoo, Mitchell, Poythress, McCollum, and Smart. I think he's still behind Len and Austin because their upside is so much greater than Porter's.

I think we could immediately use a player like Porter and I think he's got very little bust factor. But I think getting to Nick Batum would be Porter surpassing expectations. His best attributes are his length, his patience and IQ, his ability to snatch up loose balls, and his consistent jumper. I think all that pretty much ensures he'll be a productive and solid starting NBA SF provided he stays healthy. But his inability to create offense off the dribble, his lack of strength, his lack of athleticism, all give him a low ceiling compared to the other guys in his tier.

And I would definitely rather have any of the top four guys in the class than come away with just Porter.

The thing that appeals to me most about Porter is he's a pure SF that could help us right away, clean fit within our construction. But drafting mostly to fill immediate needs isn't a great way to approach the NBA draft. Long term, we could also use a face up forward at either forward spot that's creative so that our half court offense isn't totally reliant on Wall being in the game and being on point. We could use shooters at both the 3 and 4 and we will need a long term solution at the 5. We need a rebounder too. Porter solidifies that need for the shooting 3. But a creative face up forward that can shoot at the 3 or 4 would be more valuable and difficult to obtain.

What I'm hoping is we get a top four pick and spend it on one of the four big names and then we trade back into the mid to late lottery and get someone like McAdoo, Porter would probably be gone.

I'd be looking to deal away some of our young pieces and Ariza to consolidate the bench into a few good, key guys and make room for the development of a two man rookie class this season. My ideal scenario is probably that we get Noel or Zeller to be that long term 5 and then get another forward like Bennett, Porter, Mitchell, or McAdoo. All have different skill sets, but all would fit our needs at one of the forward spots IMO.

I have none of the faith you have in Shabazz or McLemore. I'd be distraught if either ended up a top 3 pick as a Wizards. Both are made to disappoint IMO. Both will be useful NBA players, but both are limited by their floor game. Expecting either to be a star or above well above average NBA players is a stretch I cannot make.

Zeller I'd expect to be solid... but I'd feel much more comfortable taking him mid-lottery.

I think this draft is littered with potential busts.

Bennett - Is he a 3 or 4? Who does he defend? I think he's a perfect example of a tweener.

Polythress - He looks lost. I don't like his body language. Another potential tweener.

McAdoo - I wonder what his draft ranking would be if his daddy wasn't a former NBA player and he didn't go to UNC. 2nd rounder maybe?

Mitchell. Again, what position does he play? Hasn't improved one iota from his frosh season.

[go'stags]

I gotta say that while Burke is an absolutely terrific college player, I'm shaky on his pro prospects. No doubt he will be in the league for a long time, but he doesn't seem like anything more than an average starter. He looks tiny, and while he may be stronger against most of the PG's in college I have a hard time believing that will be true in the NBA.

It would be one thing is he had Ty Lawson or Chris Paul quickness, but he doesn't-at least not in my mind. He's 20's-type pick to me.