Post#931 » by stevemcqueen1 » Thu Feb 7, 2013 4:53 pm
Warning, really long post coming. I apologize in advance.
One of the things I've slowly been coming to accept is that we need to have at least two, preferably three 3 ball shooters on the court with Wall at all times. At the 5, I love having a defensive big man like Okafor that rebounds and finishes his looks around the basket (and it doesn't hurt he can knock down an open shot out to ~13 feet). I'd love to keep a player like that at the 5 long term.
But at both of the forward spots and at SG, we need to value shooting very highly. Basically, no more new Veselys and Bookers. No more streaky shooting athletic defensive specialists. They need to be reliable offensive players.
Best of all worlds would be two great three ball shooters at the 2 and the 3 or 4 and then getting a forward that can face up and do some work off the bounce mid range, catch and shoot, and maybe even take it to the rack. We've kind of got that in Nene but he's not a face-up forward and his drive is not much of a threat. He's a true big man that does his creating from the post. I'd like a guy that can start from a spot further out on the floor and keep those driving lanes open for Wall.
Failing that, a stretch 4 like Ersan that can rebound and spot up from 3 would be nice.
But you do need a secondary source of offensive creativity in the half court. It can't just be Wall or you're going to run into the problems the Bulls faced before they got Boozer.
Right now I think we've got three really creative half court players. Wall, Nene, and Crawford. Crawford and Wall have flaws though, and in Crawford's case, sometimes he takes more off the table than he puts on it. That's why his minutes have been dwindling lately. Nene has a great skill set and takes almost nothing off the table when he's out there, but he's not going to be around and effective forever. We've probably got two more effective years from him. What about the rest of the Wall era? What do we do about Okafor after next season? He's another aging player whose window doesn't coincide with Wall & Beal.
What about Ariza and Martell? Ariza is extremely valuable when he's dialed in and his 3 ball is falling. But when it's not, he can be a huge detriment on offense. He's streaky. Martell is a journey man having his career year, but it's still only a 13.6 PER which is below NBA average. I don't think either are the starting SF on a 50 win contender, but both are a valuable part of the rotation. And both are potentially FAs this summer. Got to figure out something there.
And I think we'd do well to find a really good situation at backup PG. Price is alright. He's steady. I like the way he's seemed to find a home with the team and I think he's been something of a quiet glue man. But if we got a really good backup PG, I think that would be great for John and for the team as a whole. This is a spot for a potential upgrade.
And what are we going to do with all of our young developmental types that are not playing consistent minutes? If we're being realistic, there are not enough minutes to go around for all of them to properly develop. The development of Vesely and Singleton is happening at a glacial pace. Booker has been in and out for almost three years. Crawford's minutes have been all over the place. Seraphin's minutes are coming largely because he's the only true big man we've got on the bench. He's streaky as hell too, and when he's off, he can take a lot off the table.
I've said it elsewhere, but sometimes I get the feeling we're not particularly interested in truly developing all of our young players and that we only loaded up on so many draft picks so we could go cheap on the contracts on the bench but keep people from getting pissed off at poor roster quality by selling everybody on the "upside" of the young players. Upside that, of course, will never be realized if the players are not developed.
You can't really develop anyone without giving them a well defined role and consistent minutes. And you can't really develop anyone while getting your butt kicked every single night. You've got to have some success here and there to justify keeping things together. But teams full of young players don't win in the NBA. Ergo, no NBA team can develop more than a few young players at a time.
Well we've got seven first round picks on the roster with less than three seasons of experience. Of that group, only Wall and Beal are cemented in their roles and progressing well in their development. We've got more questions than answers about everyone else. AND you've got at least one more high draft pick coming into the mix this offseason.
Keeping a bunch of rookie contracts on your bench isn't necessarily a bad strategy from a salary perspective. Rookies are cheap compared to vets. In the new era of the crippling repeater tax, you have absolutely got to keep your salary costs down. That means your bench needs to be cheap. And you can pretty much do whatever you want with a rookie contract role player's minutes without worrying about stepping on toes.
But the problem drafting talented rookies with upside and then not developing them properly is that you pay a stiff opportunity cost. That rookie's "upside" has real team building value that comes with a fairly short shelf life. You can either trade the player for better assets to a team looking to develop a young player. Or of course you can develop the guy yourself and get a good talent on a bargain contract.
I keep coming back to a place where I think our best bet is to pick two of Crawford, Booker, Singleton, Vesely, and Seraphin, and then deal the other three for veteran assets or future draft picks. something to stagger the development process better.
Who I would deal depends on who I got in the draft. For instance, if I got a big man like Zeller or Noel, I'd be willing to move Seraphin. But if we get a wing like Muhammad, McLemore, Porter, etc. you have to keep Seraphin because you aren't going to get a better big man for the bench on a contract like that.
I mean I guess we could keep stashing Singleton and Vesely and bringing them along at a snail's pace. But then they'll have roles on the team by the time they're what, 26 or 27? Even that feels optimistic, and even if that happened, it's a missed opportunity IMO. In that case it would have been better to just leave Vesely in Europe like San Antonio did with Tiago Splitter.
