James Harden is a superstar

[Honey Bear]

If Harden continues to play like he is, he'll pass peak Wade during his peak.

[tsherkin]

If Harden continues to play like he is, he'll pass peak Wade during his peak.

Let's slow down with that. Wade wasn't anywhere near the 3pt shooter that Harden is currently, nor as good at the FT line, but he was a way more diverse perimeter scoring threat under the arc and had some fairly epic performances to stand on as well. Harden has a long way to go before that argument sells well.

[G35]

You're right, the Heat did an awesome job last year containing Harden. But, I think you're wrong when you said that Harden is ordinary when he isnt getting to the line, because it's not like Harden was driving the lane and just not getting calls, the guy was seeing consistent doubles every time he touched the ball with a third defender shading him. That's going to throw most every guy off when he starts seeing defensive attention like that for the first time (as far as I can remember that was first time I remember a team defending Harden like that).

Just to play devil's advocate here, did you also see that LeBron was replaceable after the 2007 Finals? or the 2011 Finals? What about Kobe in the 2000/04 Finals? Dirk in the 2006 Finals? against GSW?

This is going to address tSherkin's similar comments.

2011/12 is a 6th man who is suppose to provide instant offense and complement WB/Durant. And you are comparing him to 2007 Lebron who was clearly the #1 option on a Cavaliers team that was built entirely around him. Without Harden OKC would not be the clear cut favorite out of the West. Without Lebron those Cav's (and I'm not one of those guys who think those Cav's were without talent but they would not produce as well sans Lebron) are getting nowhere near the finals.

So to sum up that poor comparison Lebron #1 option >> Harden 6th man 3rd option

2004 Kobe is also another poor comparison because It was Shaq/Kobe a one-two punch. At that point Kobe was becoming the #1 option as Shaq was slightly declining. Those Pistons were one of the best defensive teams of all time and if Harden struggled vs the Heat he most likely would have vs those Pistons. However the difference is Shaq was played straight up and the Pistons sealed off Bryants lanes to the basket. No one else on the Lakers was a factor on offense.

I think this is where if we talk about Harden struggling and they start blaming everything on the coach and quality of his teammates.

It's funny that people want to compare Harden to Lebron/Kobe. Is he on their level now? Real question because that's the fallback answer for why Harden was allowed to struggle. Kobe and Lebron struggled why can't Harden? Well because Harden wasn't a superstar and was not drawing the attention of the defense the way Kobe/Lebron routinely do.

Is that the comeback that people are going to use if Harden struggles in the playoff's? "They doubled him and sent the defense to get the ball out of his hands." That's what a defense does against great scorers. A superstar has to figure out a way to beat that defensive attention.......

[tsherkin]

2004 Kobe is also another poor comparison because It was Shaq/Kobe a one-two punch. At that point Kobe was becoming the #1 option as Shaq was slightly declining.

That's a debatable point. Kobe shot more, but the offense was still most effective when the ball was going into Shaq, off-ball movement happened in the triangle, and everything happened from there. Obviously, Kobe was critical to that team and, at least until his epic Finals meltdown, played rather well as the closer and so forth, so I don't mean to take anything away from that. I do, however, tend to disagree with the idea that Kobe was the first option or foundation of the offense.

It's funny that people want to compare Harden to Lebron/Kobe. Is he on their level now?

Eh, no. Clearly not. It is far too early to make a claim like that, which I suspect to be your point (or at least the same conclusion). Harden is a guy warring with Melo at this stage and even in this (his best season to-date), Melo isn't on the level of Lebron or prime Kobe. Naturally then, it follows that Harden hasn't proved enough to sit on the level with those guys yet, either.

Is that the comeback that people are going to use if Harden struggles in the playoff's? "They doubled him and sent the defense to get the ball out of his hands." That's what a defense does against great scorers. A superstar has to figure out a way to beat that defensive attention.......

And yet they don't always do it. Lebron, Kobe and Durant have all had struggles against defenses that made them look entirely mortal and pedestrian. Harden has some issues with a lack of versatility at this point, though it bears mention that this is the second half of his first season as a primary scorer and he's only 23 years old. Most players aren't complete, polished products at that stage. Lebron sure wasn't, for one example.

Harden is a very good player; I'd say he's meeting most of the fairly high expectations many people had of him coming into the season. No scorer, not even the very best of all-time, manage to play at optimal level against all comers all of the time, and the nature of averages is that they are made up of a mix of good, mediocre and bad performances. Harden isn't, at least yet, one of the best scorers of all-time, so naturally he has a wilder variance in the nature of his performances. He needs to develop his offense more, but that isn't terribly atypical. The same thing was true of Jordan, of Lebron... Dirk needed to find a way to fight of undersized forwards digging into his base and using length to cut off his ability to slash to the rim... I could go on. A primary scorer's career is one of adjustments, a constant learning process.

Of the arguments that you've made, G35, the one I respect the most so far is the one that I've been making the entire time I've been in this thread: that it's premature to be heaping a ton of praise on Harden compared to his peers... and also that he has work to do on his game, plus much to prove in the postseason. After Durant hit the playoffs for the first time in 09-10, the result was much the same as when we saw Lebron in 07: a lot of doom'n'gloom over an embarrassingly poor showing. Durant rocked 25.0 ppg... on 35.0% FG and 28.6% 3P... and that volume was floated by 9.7 FTA/g at 87.1%. Like Harden, Durant was relying heavily upon foul draw to make his game work, and in his case, he was totally incapable of handling the physical defense Artest was playing against him. He needed to make adjustments, needed to learn to handle what it really meant to go toe-to-toe in the playoffs with a real defense. Harden may well have similar struggles, since the Rockets will face a top-3 team in the first round if they make it, most likely.

He's not a top-tier star yet. Sample's too small and he has too much to prove, but for a first-time offensive centerpiece, he's doing extremely well. I think, if nothing else, we can all agree on that. He's got work to do, but objectively looking at Houston's offensive performance and Harden's individual performance against the skepticism many had over his ability to translate to a primary role, one can't honestly come to the conclusion that he's doing anything less than very well.

Becoming a superstar is not an overnight process, at least focusing on the aspect of that word as it pertains to actual on-court production and impact on winning. It's a process. Harden is only beginning that process at this point.

[tsherkin]

I should also add that this is one of those times where one needs to look a little past TS%; Harden's 60.2% is very appealing, but as anyone who watches him play will note, his game is a few wrinkles shy of complete at this stage. Hardly unexpected or particularly underdeveloped given his previous role, but for him to come to truly dominate, he's going to need to add a little bit of middle game, and an appropriate balance between using his favorite, hyper-efficient shots and some of those less-efficient but still-necessary counters.

Take Kevin Durant, for example. Durant is taking 18.2 FGA/g so far this season, so a lot of shots. He's rocking an absurd 65.4% TS on those shots...

But he's still taking 6.16 FGA/g from 3-15 feet, 2.96 from 3-9, 3.2 from 10-15, at 44.6% and 53.1% respectively. He's KILLING it from an efficiency standpoint, but those shots aren't new and he hasn't always shot those at comparable percentages. They are, however, a product of necessity in his game. He takes them so that he can set up those other shots that he takes. Beyond that, he takes 3.24 FGA/g from 16-23 feet at 39.5%, which actually isn't all that remarkable, it's one of his weaker areas. But he still takes something like 17% of his shots from that range because sometimes, that's what the defense dictates that he needs to do when he doesn't have a superior option for a shot or a pass.

That's something Harden still needs to learn. Durant is a REALLY good scorer, so his efficiency isn't overly harmed by this (certainly not this year), but Harden has to develop his game a bit more. It's early, super early in his career though, so we don't have a reason to believe that he won't... we just can't assume that he will and use projected development to rank him next to guys who have already done that.

[G35]

2004 Kobe is also another poor comparison because It was Shaq/Kobe a one-two punch. At that point Kobe was becoming the #1 option as Shaq was slightly declining.

That's a debatable point. Kobe shot more, but the offense was still most effective when the ball was going into Shaq, off-ball movement happened in the triangle, and everything happened from there. Obviously, Kobe was critical to that team and, at least until his epic Finals meltdown, played rather well as the closer and so forth, so I don't mean to take anything away from that. I do, however, tend to disagree with the idea that Kobe was the first option or foundation of the offense.

It's funny that people want to compare Harden to Lebron/Kobe. Is he on their level now?

Eh, no. Clearly not. It is far too early to make a claim like that, which I suspect to be your point (or at least the same conclusion). Harden is a guy warring with Melo at this stage and even in this (his best season to-date), Melo isn't on the level of Lebron or prime Kobe. Naturally then, it follows that Harden hasn't proved enough to sit on the level with those guys yet, either.

Is that the comeback that people are going to use if Harden struggles in the playoff's? "They doubled him and sent the defense to get the ball out of his hands." That's what a defense does against great scorers. A superstar has to figure out a way to beat that defensive attention.......

And yet they don't always do it. Lebron, Kobe and Durant have all had struggles against defenses that made them look entirely mortal and pedestrian. Harden has some issues with a lack of versatility at this point, though it bears mention that this is the second half of his first season as a primary scorer and he's only 23 years old. Most players aren't complete, polished products at that stage. Lebron sure wasn't, for one example.

Harden is a very good player; I'd say he's meeting most of the fairly high expectations many people had of him coming into the season. No scorer, not even the very best of all-time, manage to play at optimal level against all comers all of the time, and the nature of averages is that they are made up of a mix of good, mediocre and bad performances. Harden isn't, at least yet, one of the best scorers of all-time, so naturally he has a wilder variance in the nature of his performances. He needs to develop his offense more, but that isn't terribly atypical. The same thing was true of Jordan, of Lebron... Dirk needed to find a way to fight of undersized forwards digging into his base and using length to cut off his ability to slash to the rim... I could go on. A primary scorer's career is one of adjustments, a constant learning process.

Of the arguments that you've made, G35, the one I respect the most so far is the one that I've been making the entire time I've been in this thread: that it's premature to be heaping a ton of praise on Harden compared to his peers... and also that he has work to do on his game, plus much to prove in the postseason. After Durant hit the playoffs for the first time in 09-10, the result was much the same as when we saw Lebron in 07: a lot of doom'n'gloom over an embarrassingly poor showing. Durant rocked 25.0 ppg... on 35.0% FG and 28.6% 3P... and that volume was floated by 9.7 FTA/g at 87.1%. Like Harden, Durant was relying heavily upon foul draw to make his game work, and in his case, he was totally incapable of handling the physical defense Artest was playing against him. He needed to make adjustments, needed to learn to handle what it really meant to go toe-to-toe in the playoffs with a real defense. Harden may well have similar struggles, since the Rockets will face a top-3 team in the first round if they make it, most likely.

He's not a top-tier star yet. Sample's too small and he has too much to prove, but for a first-time offensive centerpiece, he's doing extremely well. I think, if nothing else, we can all agree on that. He's got work to do, but objectively looking at Houston's offensive performance and Harden's individual performance against the skepticism many had over his ability to translate to a primary role, one can't honestly come to the conclusion that he's doing anything less than very well.

Becoming a superstar is not an overnight process, at least focusing on the aspect of that word as it pertains to actual on-court production and impact on winning. It's a process. Harden is only beginning that process at this point.

I really agree with your whole post. I'm very hard on Harden (no pun intended) because he came up short in the finals when OKC needed him to do what he does best. He didn't so until he does prove that he has the chops in the playoff's his regular season success is tempered imo.

Your closing comment was also money because becoming a superstar is not an overnight process and I think many people have been trying to proclaim Harden a superstar prematurely.....

[CKRT]

OKC's offense was fine, their defense sucked balls. It's weird how quick people are to blast Harden for not playing well when Perkins and Ibaka were both useless on both sides of the ball.

[G35]

OKC's offense was fine, their defense sucked balls. It's weird how quick people are to blast Harden for not playing well when Perkins and Ibaka were both useless on both sides of the ball.

I don't see anyone claiming either one being a superstar. Did the Heat complain about Joel Anthony and Mario Chalmers? Harden was suppose to be a difference maker. He wasn't, stop making excuses.....

[aol4532]

OKC isn't a loser. Both teams benefitted. OKC has gotten better by getting KD more touches and the Rockets got Harden.

Anytime you trade a 23 year old superstar for a glorified spot up shooter and a D league All Star, you're a loser. I don't care that Durant is so good that such a monumental mistake doesn't appear such, it was a mistake besides.

I don't think people understand that not only did OKC not have to trade Harden this season, as he had a final year on his contract giving them the option of waiting until seasons end with no consequence, but that Sam Presti and Scott Brooks essentially chose Kendrick Perkins over James Harden. Had they amnestied the former, they could have afforded the latter comfortably. But since the Lakers were going to make a deep run in the playoffs, they required Perks size to defend Howard...

It was a mistake no matter the angle.

A glorified shooter isn't a bad thing these days. In fact, they are quite lethal. I'd rank K-Mart starter and Harden All-Star. OKC is probably a wash due to Ibaka's improvements and I think Scott Brooks improved also.

[90sAllDecade]

Thought I'd post this here:
Lin without Harden per36: 18.3/3.8/8.9 on 59.5TS
Lin with Harden: 12.9/3.8/6.3 on 51.5TS

Asik without Harden per36: 17/13.9/0.8 on 56TS
Asik with Harden: 11.7/13.9/1.2 on 55TS

Douglas without Harden per36: 17.8/3.2/4.7 on 58TS
Douglas with Harden: 14/3.9/2.8 on 47TS

It continues this way with most of the team. Any Rockets fans know why they're better without him?

I'm still checking, but those stats might be a little misleading.

Lin has 272 minutes with Harden on the bench in 48 games. Divided that equals 5.7 minutes a game, if you divide his 18.3 and 12.9 points by 36 and multiply by 5.7 it equals 2.89 and 2.04 points.

He basically scored one extra point with Harden on the bench for five minutes.

The context of those five minutes could be, the Rockets needed offense with Harden sitting out and Lin naturally gets an extra shot. The opposing team could also have their primary defenders resting to guard Harden, if not it's still not a large enough sample to count has anything near hard evidence imo.

I also don't know if it was counted in those stats, but Harden was out only 1 full game and the Rockets had a big offensive game (but not bigger than games with him later) and lost. Lin had a big game with 38 points and played 42 minutes, Asik had 21 in 35 (both average less minutes) . Those might be outliers that alter those low minute stat's averages if they were included. They might not have been though.

Asik has 220 in 46 or 4.8 minutes, so even less.

Douglas has a better sample at 418 in 48 at 8.7 minutes, but second string will usually get more offensive opportunities with the starters resting, than with them taking shots they would have. It also doesn't account for garbage time minute samples, where backups can stat pad against lesser defenders.

Lin also has had Linsanity-like games/ averages with him, but with much larger minute samples to balance out his bad games, same for Asik.

[UGA Hayes]

^Actually I think it has to do with a phenomenon that doesn't really get talked enough and was overlooked when talking about Harden or similarly competent ballhandlers. Basically players tend to become more efficient if they have more touches. IMO its why the Dickaus, and Collison's of the world have better then expected seasons when you thrust them into a starting rule and then regress once they lose that freedom and this probably applies to most players with a modicum of ballhandling ability.I can see it going on with my own team with a guy like Rondo going down. Now Pierce, Terry, and Lee are playing better with more touches. The question in both situations is whether an incremental improvement in certain individual players offensive contributions wotrth the loss of "star" players overall contributions.

[90sAllDecade]

True, that's a good point as well.

Who gives you the most impact to win by increasing their touches and perhaps efficiency, your star or your other individual players?

I did an analysis early in the season comparing differences in the Rockets losing and winning streaks as well as indirectly comparing Harden vs Lin's high scoring games, and Harden's big games increased wins more on average than Lin's high scoring games.

That was a while back though (around the 25 game mark I think), but I suspect it would still look similar at this point.

Just like you can have role players put up good numbers on bad teams due to increased touches, it doesn't necessarily mean they can impact wins as much as a star with similar output.

[MisterWestside]

Now Pierce, Terry, and Lee are playing better with more touches.

They're actually not creating any more shots on offense than before (their respective % poss. has been right around their regular season levels); their shot selection is different. Terry, for example, has taken +10% more shots within 15 feet of the rim since the Rondo injury.

[ardee]

If Harden continues to play like he is, he'll pass peak Wade during his peak.

Let's slow down with that. Wade wasn't anywhere near the 3pt shooter that Harden is currently, nor as good at the FT line, but he was a way more diverse perimeter scoring threat under the arc and had some fairly epic performances to stand on as well. Harden has a long way to go before that argument sells well.

Harden is looking to be a better playmaker as well. His turnovers are abnormally high this year but I feel that's because it's his first time with the ball so much. His range will help in this regard, stretching the floor and helping him to find his team-mates for easy baskets in the Rocket's pace and space offense.

2006 Wade, who was probably only a bit worse than 2009 Wade, had his best team pre-LeBron and they put up a +2.5 offense.

2012 Harden, who's playing on an 8th seed as compared to a damn title team, has the Rockets putting up a +4.3 offense!

Look at the supporting casts! HOW is Harden doing this? He's a flat out wizard. People can wave it off if they want, but like I said, he's a future MVP and he'll end up as one of the top 5 two-guards ever. Just an absurd skill level and feel for the game.

OKC will regret this forever.

[tsherkin]

Harden is looking to be a better playmaker as well.

I haven't seen that, no. Both of them are high-volume PnR artists who mostly penetrate and pitch, I haven't seen Harden doing anything Wade didn't also do regularly, and in higher volume.

His turnovers are abnormally high this year but I feel that's because it's his first time with the ball so much. His range will help in this regard, stretching the floor and helping him to find his team-mates for easy baskets in the Rocket's pace and space offense.

It's possible, yes. He turns the ball over a lot because he doesn't habitually pull up, he goes straight for the drawn contact or the rim.

2006 Wade, who was probably only a bit worse than 2009 Wade, had his best team pre-LeBron and they put up a +2.5 offense.

2012 Harden, who's playing on an 8th seed as compared to a damn title team, has the Rockets putting up a +4.3 offense!

Look at the supporting casts! HOW is Harden doing this? He's a flat out wizard. People can wave it off if they want, but like I said, he's a future MVP and he'll end up as one of the top 5 two-guards ever. Just an absurd skill level and feel for the game.

Harden's supporting cast isn't ideal, mainly because Lin is pretty bad, but they're a pretty solid three-point shooting team and Asik is a very good offensive rebounder. It's not the 86 Celtics, but they're pretty solid.


Also, 2009 Wade's supporting cast:

Michael Beasley, 27 games of Jermaine O'neal, 42 games of Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, Daequan Cook, 26 games of Jamario Moon, Chris Quinn, a brief appearance by Luther Head, 40 games of James Jones, 20 games of Mark Blount, Yakhouba Diawara, 6 games of Dorell Wright, 55 games of Jamaal Magloire and 65 games of Joel Anthony.

That supporting cast sucked ass.

[ardee]

Also, 2009 Wade's supporting cast:

Michael Beasley, 27 games of Jermaine O'neal, 42 games of Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, Daequan Cook, 26 games of Jamario Moon, Chris Quinn, a brief appearance by Luther Head, 40 games of James Jones, 20 games of Mark Blount, Yakhouba Diawara, 6 games of Dorell Wright, 55 games of Jamaal Magloire and 65 games of Joel Anthony.

That supporting cast sucked ass.

I was talking about 2006 Wade.... The title team

[MisterWestside]

Thought I'd post this here:
Lin without Harden per36: 18.3/3.8/8.9 on 59.5TS
Lin with Harden: 12.9/3.8/6.3 on 51.5TS

Asik without Harden per36: 17/13.9/0.8 on 56TS
Asik with Harden: 11.7/13.9/1.2 on 55TS

Douglas without Harden per36: 17.8/3.2/4.7 on 58TS
Douglas with Harden: 14/3.9/2.8 on 47TS

It continues this way with most of the team. Any Rockets fans know why they're better without him?

Use of carefully selected lineups against certain competition, low sample size, lack of good coaching to mesh Harden and his teammates talents together, Harden's teammates standing around and ball-watching instead of working with their star, etc.

All which have nothing to do with Harden.

[Doctor MJ]

Thought this was interesting:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... -available

Harden averages nine drives per game, which is fifth among players whose teams have the cameras. The top four: Tony Parker (10.8), Rajon Rondo (10.1), Russell Westbrook (9.3), and Jrue Holiday (9.2). As an aside, that Holiday number is a fantastically good sign for Philly. He ranked below average by this metric last season, and he’s piling up about twice as many drives per game this season, according to the 2011-12 data I’ve reviewed. Philly is still below average as a team in drives per game, which tells you how much heavy lifting Holiday is doing for a very limited bunch.

Back to Harden: Houston is scoring 1.51 points per possession on trips in which he drives at any time in the shot clock. That is easily the highest mark among all players in the 15-team database with more than a token number of drives. It is a mammoth number; keep in mind, teams average just about one point per possession overall. Harden has drawn a foul on one-third of his drives, which is among the highest numbers in the data set, and sort of amazing when you think about it.

[Krodis]

Well, with Harden being out against the Clippers, he's reached the all-star break:

26.1/5.7/4.8 on .600 TS%. 3.8 turnovers is kind of high, admittedly, but not too out of whack. (His TO% is 14.8, same as last year) His assists have been trending upwards as of late (Averaging 7.5 in February and 5.8 in January).

A couple rough stretches in November and January are dragging his numbers down a bit. I think he needs to work on his conditioning, or the Rockets need to slow down just a tad. (Although the January schedule was just brutal, hard to blame him too much.)

[tsherkin]

I was talking about 2006 Wade.... The title team

That team is somewhat skewed by the coaching change 21 games into the season. And the fact that Shaq played only 59 games. And that Jason Williams only played 59 games. And that Zo played only 65 games. And that Kapono played 51 games. And that they had no bench to speak of.

The situation wasn't exactly the same, it's not really a comparable moment.

Meantime, the Heat were 7th in the league in offense even with all of those injuries and the turmoil over the coaching change.