Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[stevemcqueen1]

That's a good list, Steve. I guess the player I need to see more of is Austin. I just saw him early in the season, and he looked so skinny - in spite of having muscles - the frame didn't look like it was there. But I remember thinking the same about Chris Bosh when he was a frosh. Austin's even taller than Bosh - so I'm surprised he doesn't block more shots. He seems to be improving a lot (at least rebounding-wise), so if he can make the kind of developments Bosh did as a frosh, he could be worthy of a top 5 pick. I'll want to follow his progress probably more than anyone else throughout the rest of the season.

Thanks. It's very fluid, but that's how I'm feeling right now.

Austin is a little tough to read. He is very skinny. His legs are so thin. The does a surprisingly good job holding his ground all things considered. He's scrappy and willing to play physical. He even out muscled Nerlens during the Kentucky game IIRC.

He's streaky. His highs are really high, like that Oklahoma game where he went for like 19 points and 20 boards. He's got a jumper with range out to three. He looks like a true 7 feet tall. He's such an odd collection of skills and attributes. I think he's a really appealing player, and part of that is I can't think of anyone else quite like him.

What's interesting about his shot blocking is there are times when he goes into beast mode and takes away everything at the rim. But other times he'll look completely soft. His defensive effort and performance level are also streaky.

[Dat2U]

NBA comparable in parenthesis.

TIER ONE
None
TIER TWO
1. CE Nerlens Noel (Joakim Noah)
TIER THREE
2. PG Marcus Smart (a cross b/w Russell Westbrook/Tyreke Evans)
3. CE Alex Len (Brook Lopez)
4. SF Otto Porter (Nicolas Batum)
5. CE Cody Zeller (Tiago Splitter)
6. SF Shabazz Muhammad (Jerry Stackhouse)
TIER FOUR
7. PG Trey Burke (Kemba Walker)
8. PG C.J. McCollum (Devin Harris)
9. SG Victor Oladipo (Tony Allen)
9. SG Ben McLemore (Brandon Rush)
10. CE Willie Cauley-Stein (TBD - not sure yet)

[stevemcqueen1]

NBA comparable in parenthesis.

TIER ONE
None
TIER TWO
1. CE Nerlens Noel (Joakim Noah)
TIER THREE
2. PG Marcus Smart (a cross b/w Russell Westbrook/Tyreke Evans)
3. CE Alex Len (Brook Lopez)
4. SF Otto Porter (Nicolas Batum)
5. CE Cody Zeller (Tiago Splitter)
6. SF Shabazz Muhammad (Jerry Stackhouse)
TIER FOUR
7. PG Trey Burke (Kemba Walker)
8. PG C.J. McCollum (Devin Harris)
9. SG Victor Oladipo (Tony Allen)
9. SG Ben McLemore (Brandon Rush)
10. CE Willie Cauley-Stein (TBD - not sure yet)

Good comparisons. But I think comparisons are never that clean and they tend to be cautiously conservative. Most people will say Manu Ginobli would be a great best case scenario comparison for Shabazz. But who knows if that's his ceiling? Whose to say some lightbulb won't click on somewhere and/or he ends up in the perfect situation and he won't end up being the left handed Kobe Bryant? From where we sit, we have no idea how likely those kinds of things are to happen.

These are some of differences I'd point out in the comparisons:

- I like parts of a Noel to Noah comparison, but Noel is a substantially better athlete than Noah and has a great deal more offensive upside IMO.

- I'm not sure I go for a Marcus Smart/Russy comparison. Smart is just nowhere near as fast as him and so much of Russy's game is predicated on his speed. I can see a Tyreke comparison, though Tyreke being 6'6 is an important difference.

- I like the Batum comparison with Porter but it's worth pointing out Batum has a little better dribble skills and can play some SG.

- I think Zeller could be compared to Brook Lopez too actually, though he's not as big Zeller and Lopez are. The shooting touch and rebounding troubles are similar.

-I can definitely see elements of Kemba Walker in Trey Burke's game. But it's also worth pointing out Walker is a good deal quicker and more agile than Burke. He's a more dangerous scorer. But Burke kind of balances that out by being more of a pure PG and a better passer than Walker.

- I like the Tony Allen comparison for Oladippo.

- I think you're seriously lowballing McLemore's upside with a Brandon Rush comp. Bill Self coached both and he said McLemore is the most talented player he's ever coached. There is something special about him. He's become nearly the collegiate star that Ray Allen was as a sophomore, he is one of the faces of college bball. I think his career ends up looking more like Ray Allen's (or what Bradley Beal's is going to look like) than Brandon Rush's.

[Terpman]

James Mcadoo is my sleeper in this draft. I think he's going to be a player that some teams wish they hadn't passed on.
He looks like a real nice fit at SF with the Wiz.

[stevemcqueen1]

James Mcadoo is my sleeper in this draft. I think he's going to be a player that some teams wish they hadn't passed on.
He looks like a real nice fit at SF with the Wiz.

I really like him too. He went to H.S. in the neighborhood I live. Really smart, down to Earth kid with a very high basketball IQ. Nice skill set. Smooth athlete.

He played for team USA in the under 18 FIBA tournaments with Beal a year or two ago and according to DX at the time, the two of them stood out as the clear cut best players in the tournaments.

I've always thought he is kind of the forward version of Beal. Smart as hell. Skilled. A patient, graceful athlete with explosiveness and power that can take you by surprise.

He's a tweener SF/PF IMO. Similar to Jeff Green, but more powerful and probably a higher IQ player. I see some Thaddeus Young with the mix of strength and athleticism and ball handling. Good motor. Good rebounder that can go up and grab boards outside his area and he always boxes out. He's versatile defensively, at UNC he does everything from guarding the rim in the middle of the paint as the 5 to playing on the ball out on the perimeter. He's great playing the passing lanes and can come up with a lot of steals there and I've also seen him get strip steals and go coast to coast with them.

Offensively he's got some versatility as well. He's mostly a face up forward that likes to do his scoring off the dribble. He has very few problems getting to the rim against college forwards. He's a good ball handler and combines quickness with strength and has a nice feel for the ball with an array of below the rim finishes. But he's also got a mid range game and his go to move is a really nice turn around fade from the mid post. And he runs the floor really well and is a good finisher in transition. There are two or three things on offense that he already does really well.

All in all, he's one of my favorite players in the class and I would love to draft him if we end up picking late in the lottery or trade back into the lottery. He's really started to play well for UNC the past few weeks.

[Kanyewest]

As of right now, I think Austin is a better prospect than Alex Len.

Alex Len has scored only a total of 24 points his last three games. He also grabbed 24 rebounds and had 5 blocks total. Len is a sophomore. Meanwhile, Isaiah Austin over the last three games has 35 points, 42 rebounds, with also 5 blocks. Austin is a freshman.

It will be very interesting the rest of the season. Right now, I think Austin is rising and Len is playing his way down the lottery.

Well Len is only about 4 months older than Austin but those are some good stats by him.

[sfam]

I watched the UCLA game tonight and Shabazz KILLED his prospects. Game was tied at the end and UCLA has the ball with a final shot. Larry Drew has the ball as the clock is winding down. Shabazz is stomping his feet, clapping his hands, jumping up and down, screaming for the ball. Larry Drew doesn't pass to Shabazz and instead hits the game winner at the buzzer. Shabazz stares in disbelief as the shot goes in. The team mobs Drew SHABAZZ just quietly and quickly walks off the floor without celebrating or congratulating Drew. WOW - don't know how you can pick Shabazz any more - terrible selfish teammate.

I think you're reading too much into that. I don't think Shabazz is a bad teammate, I think he's overly aggressive and I think he's got poor passing skills. That's not the same as being selfish or being a bad teammate.

And I don't think his post game reaction is worth putting any weight in. These are his words.

“Oh yeah, I wanted the ball,” said Muhammad, who had a game-high 22 points but took 23 shots and had zero assists. “But Larry is such an aggressive player, and as soon as the ball went up I knew it was going to be good.

“Everybody was on him and attacking him and I knew Larry was going to have something broken or some scratches, so I was going to wait until he gets up to congratulate him. That was a big-time shot and we’re all so happy that we won the game.”

Some people are cool customers, doesn't really mean anything.

Shabazz has had a rough year. He's never really gotten to fully gel with his teammates and they don't totally trust each other. He got hurt in the summer and missed everything. Then NCAA compliance went on a witch hunt and kept him out of the beginning of the year and recently he got the flu and lost 15 pounds.

All that stuff is petty to me though, and it's unnaturally depressing his stock IMO. I think he could slide behind the big men, in which case, I would draft him in a heartbeat. He's got an NBA skill set that is worth its weight in gold. He's pretty much always been the best player in the class.

I don't think you can discount that play so easily. Similar to concern (rightly so in retrospect) about drafting Demarcus Cousins, I think this sort of play doesn't stop you from drafting Shabazz, but it does make you drop him down your draft board quite a few pegs. The chances this kid has knucklehead issues in the pros is probably pretty high.

[Dr Positivity]

James Mcadoo is my sleeper in this draft. I think he's going to be a player that some teams wish they hadn't passed on.
He looks like a real nice fit at SF with the Wiz.

I like him too, but the guy I'm looking at that I wish I hadn't ignored this long, is Bullock. His shooting stats are pretty amazing, not only 44%+ from 3 but 89%+ from 3pt. He's as much a freak shooting it as McLemore. He's also a pretty smooth, high IQ player with a good NBA body. Getting a SF who's a sharpshooter from 3 and responsible defensively is pretty rare. I think he has a great chance of being an NBA starter for that reason. There are a lot of teams who'd love a 3&D wing. And while he'll be labelled 'low upside', over the years there's been a lot of so called low upside players, who ended up skilled and smart enough to be stars. I would say Bullock would have an outside chance of being like Gallinari, a guy who's an FU mode 3pt bomber and then has enough of a driving game to fill out his statline

[Dark Faze]

Do people here generally feel that McLemore is a better prospect than Beal?

[pancakes3]

Good comparisons. But I think comparisons are never that clean and they tend to be cautiously conservative. .

I've found comparisons to be typically overly optimistic. I mean, right off the bat, you're assuming the college player to not bust and resemble an NBA player who's well known enough to make a comparison with.

[Ruzious]

James Mcadoo is my sleeper in this draft. I think he's going to be a player that some teams wish they hadn't passed on.
He looks like a real nice fit at SF with the Wiz.

I like him too, but the guy I'm looking at that I wish I hadn't ignored this long, is Bullock. His shooting stats are pretty amazing, not only 44%+ from 3 but 89%+ from 3pt. He's as much a freak shooting it as McLemore. He's also a pretty smooth, high IQ player with a good NBA body. Getting a SF who's a sharpshooter from 3 and responsible defensively is pretty rare. I think he has a great chance of being an NBA starter for that reason. There are a lot of teams who'd love a 3&D wing. And while he'll be labelled 'low upside', over the years there's been a lot of so called low upside players, who ended up skilled and smart enough to be stars. I would say Bullock would have an outside chance of being like Gallinari, a guy who's an FU mode 3pt bomber and then has enough of a driving game to fill out his statline

The player I was most impressed with in today's UNC game wasn't McAdoo (who really is not a good player - and played poorly) or Bullock (who was his usual solid self and who's ceiling is a lot more like Webster than Galinari); it was Shane Larkin - who draftexpress.com doesn't even have as a 2nd round prospect. He's a soph, so he probably won't come out, and he's only 5'11 170ish, but he will play in the NBA. He was a step ahead of everybody in the game. I think he's a developing player who will surprise a lot of people.

Re Muhammad, I don't think that episode with the last second shot will affect where he goes. However, I do think Otto Porter has passed him, because Porter keeps on improving while Bazz doesn't. I've been watching a replay of G-town's game today (it's on right now), and Porter is looking like a sure thing. He is all over the place - and his long strides make it look like he shrinks the court - it takes him fewer strides to get up and down the court. And his increased strength is showing - he got half of his team's 28 rebounds, scored 19 points, and had 4 assists. G-town actually has become a running team because of him. And he drove to the basket several times - he's not just a 3&D forward. He plays under control, and the Princeton offense has made him a disciplined skilled player. He's in my top 5 now.

[NoVaO]

Regarding Snaer, he's a senior who's shot between 40 and 43% from the field in all four years of college (40% this year). He's a capable long range shooter (about 40% this year), but his mid-range game and ability to finish appear to be lacking. He has more career turnovers than assists and he's never had better than a 1:1 A:TO ratio, which is terrible for a guard. His tendency to hit the big shot is nice, but ultimately useless in the NBA because he's not good enough to be on the court in the first place.

[DCsOwn]

Do people here generally feel that McLemore is a better prospect than Beal?

I don't and I wrote as much a month and a half ago at the apex of the McLemore hype.

[dangermouse]

Cody Zeller.... I kind of see the comparison to Tiago Splitter. Both are good defenders.

Remember Sikma? I see a little Sikma. Obviously he isnt going to be anywhere as great. Also a little Webber, but again not as great. And if Webber was a tyrannosaurus rex it would be a better comparison. Those tiny arms of Cody's, how does he scratch his butt? One of sciences mysteries I guess. And continuing with the dinosaur theme, Chris Bosh, but again not as good.

NBADraft.net says Lamarcus Aldridge, which I think is pretty close but Zeller looks faster. He's a tough one to peg.

Whoever he plays like, I think he is going to be a good player, but he isn't a #1 pick talent.

[closg00]

The current issue of ESPN'S has a good article comparing the current crop of top college bigs: Noel, Zeller, Len, and Plumlee.

[Earth2Ted]

Anyone see Steven Adams against Cincinnati last night? He's a guy that was supposed to be a lottery pick but started out a lot more raw than anticipated, but now he is starting to assert himself more. Looked good taking the ball inside both with brute strength and with fakes and up and under. Thought he showed some good mobility defending the pick and roll and was generally a presence underneath even though he only ended up with 2 rebounds.

He's still raw and robably will stay in school at least another year (or 2) but I'm sure the scouts are keeping a close eye on him- at 7 foot 250, and he has natural size and strength that runs in the family (sister won gold in the Olympic Shot put).

[Ruzious]

E2T, I really like Adams' potential - moreso than Cauley-Stein's. I think he lacks experience - coming from New Zealand, so another college season would really help. He really passes the eye test, and he's improving. He just needs more experience and more consistency.

[The Consiglieri]

Plumlee is older than Derrick Favors, John Wall, and Jan Vesely, he came from the same recruiting class as DeMarcus Cousins. He's a grown man playing against teen-aged boys. He's a low skill hustle big man with pretty good athleticism. He's a role player in the NBA, I doubt he becomes a regular starter on a good team. Nerlens Noel is wholly better than him. Zeller, Austin, and Len are all far better prospects than him too IMO.

+100,000

Why people insist on getting the wool pulled over their eyes with overaged prospects dominating kids is beyond me. Plumlee, when the same age as the best prospects in a given draft class wasn't even considered a top 40 draft talent. Drafting Plumee would be beyond moronic. When you have kids of various ages competing for the same slot in a draft class, age is a vital component in evalutions. There's a reason 28 year olds mashing in AA or AAA aren't considered prospects in baseball, and the same issue should be in play with basketball.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Severn Hoos, this politically incorrect post is for you. What do these players have in common?

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2013/

Tyler Zeller, Alex Len, and Mason Plumlee are each rated in the top ten. Kelly Olynk is rated top 20. International players Dario Saric and Sergey Karasev are rated above Jeff Withey and Mike Muscala, who are projected to go in round one.

Moving to round two, Nemanja Nedovic is rated above Doug McDermott. He plays like an Ernie pick. Athletic, sorta like Jan Vesely as a combo guard. (Recall, I correctly guess EG would draft Satoransky. Unfortunately he used the #32 and not the #46 pick )

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLiCyhDpjzs[/youtube]

DX round two includes: Bojan Dubljevic, Leo Westermann, are ahead of Doug McDermott and Michael Snaer. After them are Nate Woltjers, Erik Murphy, Jack Cooley, and Oleksandr LYPOVYY. That is a lot of consonants.

Sev, I would be okay with Washington drafting Len, McDermott, and Woltjers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Moving from my half-joking, all diversity draft picks, I think this college season is full of upheaval and the mock drafts are somewhat topsy turvy. Some of the better players are in the middle of round one and at the end of round two.

Players who tend to win are not valued enough by the Draft Express mock. Gorgui Dieng, Doug McDermott, and Michael Snaer should be higher. In the past, Isaiah Canaan has gotten it done on big stage. Brandon Paul and Solomon Hill make their teams competitive. Players who cannot shoot a lick, like Nedovic, are valued too high, while Doug McDermott's lack of athleticism is allowed to completely overshadow the guy's shooting prowess.

I think the actual draft is going to mirror a lot of what happens in the conclusion of this topsy turvy NCAA season. Some guys will rise into round one off of team wins and others will fall.