Fare thee well: Trevor Ariza Appreciation Thread

fishercob · Post #1 » by **fishercob** » Sat Feb 9, 2013 3:55 am

49 games into the season and Ariza doesn't have his own thread?

Gotta give RZA serious props for his defense -- particularly late in games.. He's just so versatile. He seems to play a really big role in how good we are as a defensive team

With the rest of the lineup healthy he seems to have cut way down on his bad shot attempts, and since Wall has returned to the lineup he is 22-57 from 3 -- nearly 39%.

He turns 28 in June. If he continues on this path, do we engage him about not picking up his option and re-signing for 3 years at a lower base number -- maybe even front-loaded to free up some space in the out years?

popper · Post #2 » by **popper** » Sat Feb 9, 2013 4:02 am

fishercob wrote:49 games into the season and Ariza doesn't have his own thread?

Gotta give RZA serious props for his defense -- particularly late in games.. He's just so versatile. He seems to play a really big role in how good we are as a defensive team

With the rest of the lineup healthy he seems to have cut way down on his bad shot attempts, and since Wall has returned to the lineup he is 22-57 from 3 -- nearly 39%.

He turns 28 in June. If he continues on this path, do we engage him about not picking up his option and re-signing for 3 years at a lower base number -- maybe even front-loaded to free up some space in the out years?

I like him, especially since Wall's return. If he continues to hit 3's like he has recently it's a no-brainer IMO.

FAH1223 · Post #3 » by **FAH1223** » Sat Feb 9, 2013 9:25 pm

From when he was with the Knicks, I always liked his hustle, his defense obviously, and his ability to be a slasher to the rim especially in transition.

One thing I like is when his shot isn't falling, he tries to crash the glass, get a couple of assists... but his shooting is so streaky. When the Lakers won the championship in 2009, they were lucky he got hot at just the right time. Houston regretted giving him that deal and New Orleans obviously tried to get rid of that deal to a sucker which turned out to be Ernie.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #4 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Sat Feb 9, 2013 10:31 pm

Ernie was that sucker, FAH1223.

However, Ariza has started to hit threes like he did in the Laker playoffs. Trevor has consistently played good defense and also passed very well. He seems to have real good chemistry with Martell Webster.

I like the energy Ariza brings and I am seeing less shots brick out at inopportune times. If he keeps hitting the three at a reasonable rate I think Trevor will end up being a good pick up. I remember the EJ years and the Flip years when teams would destroy the Wizards from the perimeter. That is no longer the case in large part due to Trevor Ariza.

AFM · Post #5 » by **AFM** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:25 am

I love his defense. Seems like almost once a game he gets a nice steal off a pass. That's effort.

fishercob · Post #6 » by **fishercob** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 7:27 pm

Nate, talk to me about the kind of contract it might make sense for Ariza to sign with the Wizards this summer were he to opt out. I don't know the new CBA well. Is there a way for us to front load to lessen our burden in the out years?

Nivek · Post #7 » by **Nivek** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:12 pm

Need cap room to front load deals.

pancakes3 · Post #8 » by **pancakes3** » Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:20 pm

Are you really willing to pay him starter money ahead of Webster?

Post #9 » by **nate33** » Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:59 am

fishercob wrote:Nate, talk to me about the kind of contract it might make sense for Ariza to sign with the Wizards this summer were he to opt out. I don't know the new CBA well. Is there a way for us to front load to lessen our burden in the out years?

As Nivek said, frontloading is not an option. I just don't see how it makes sense to for us to resign Ariza at a market rate. With Wall on the roster, Ariza's suspect outside shot really cripples the offense. Ariza is of more value to a team that has good shooters already in place at PG, SG and PF.

I'd resign Webster and draft another SF this draft or next to handle backup SF duties at a low cost.

fishercob · Post #10 » by **fishercob** » Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:48 am

I guess frontloading was the wrong term. I meant structuring a declining contract. Does that require you to be under the cap?

I'm not advocating re-signing Ariza now -- we can't. But if his stellar play continues (his 3 pt shooting with wall back has my attention) then he's worth keeping if the price is right.

He and Webster are in no way mutually exclusive, especially since Webster can back up the 2, IMHO.

Post #11 » by **nate33** » Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:29 pm

He can sign a declining contract, but the increments would be small. The maximum it could decline would be 7.5% a year. So, starting at $5M, it would look something like: $5M, $4.63M, $4.25M.

I agree that he might we worth resigning if he can keep his 3P% up. He is shooting .385 since Wall's return. But he has never shot higher than .334 in his entire career, and shot just .303 alongside Chris Paul; so my guess is that it's just a sample size issue. I think the most we can plausibly expect is something in the .320 range. That translates into an eFG% of just .480, which doesn't help a team.

There's also the issue of age. Ariza is a player who relies on his athleticism and his most important contribution is his ability to play shut down defense on the perimeter. He will turn 29 in the summer of 2014. Do we really want to count on him continuing to play elite defense for 3 or so years after that? I wouldn't bet $5M a year on it, and I doubt he'll cost less.

tontoz · Post #12 » by **tontoz** » Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:04 pm

Ariza's TS% of 48.8% is right in line with what he has done for the previous 3 seasons. It is 2.4% worse than Crawford. He is a low volume, low efficiency scorer. That is not what the worst offense in the league needs long term.

fishercob · Post #13 » by **fishercob** » Fri Mar 15, 2013 6:59 pm

More than a month has passed. Ariza is shooting 39% from 3 since Wall has returned with a pretty beefy sample size.

Iguodala has an ETO and could opt out IMO. After him there are NO small forwards on the free agent market who bring what Ariza does to the table. I think he could opt out and get paid.

Post #14 » by **nate33** » Fri Mar 15, 2013 7:12 pm

fishercob wrote:More than a month has passed. Ariza is shooting 39% from 3 since Wall has returned with a pretty beefy sample size.

Iguodala has an ETO and could opt out IMO. After him there are NO small forwards on the free agent market who bring what Ariza does to the table. I think he could opt out and get paid.

I like Ariza, but I don't consider him part of the future. I'd kind of prefer that he stick around one more year so we can focus on developing Wall, Beal and our 2013 draft pick (assuming it's a big) without also having to focus on developing Ariza's replacement.

Of course, if we end up drafting Porter, then it would be pretty convenient if Ariza opted out.

fishercob · Post #15 » by **fishercob** » Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:06 pm

nate33 wrote:
fishercob wrote:More than a month has passed. Ariza is shooting 39% from 3 since Wall has returned with a pretty beefy sample size.

Iguodala has an ETO and could opt out IMO. After him there are NO small forwards on the free agent market who bring what Ariza does to the table. I think he could opt out and get paid.

I like Ariza, but I don't consider him part of the future. I'd kind of prefer that he stick around one more year so we can focus on developing Wall, Beal and our 2013 draft pick (assuming it's a big) without also having to focus on developing Ariza's replacement.

Of course, if we end up drafting Porter, then it would be pretty convenient if Ariza opted out.

Ariza is 6 months older than Webster, is an ace defender, and has a much better injury track record. I see no reason why we wouldn't want to keep Ariza at the right price. I agree that he staying one more year might not be a bad thing. If he leaves via free agency, I don't think replacing him will be particularly easy in the short term. For a team that has lots of bad player, losing a pretty good one for nothing does not strike me as ideal.

Post #16 » by **nate33** » Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:19 pm

fishercob wrote:Ariza is 6 months older than Webster, is an ace defender, and has a much better injury track record. I see no reason why we wouldn't want to keep Ariza at the right price. I agree that he staying one more year might not be a bad thing. If he leaves via free agency, I don't think replacing him will be particularly easy in the short term. For a team that has lots of bad player, losing a pretty good one for nothing does not strike me as ideal.

Well, sure. I'd like to keep him "for the right price". I just don't think my right price is going to be consistent with what his agent thinks is his right price. Ariza won't opt out unless he gets full MLE money at a minimum, and probably a bit more. I don't think we can afford that while also paying Webster $4M a year. And given the choice between the two, I'd take Webster at $4M.

My guess is that he'll ask around and try to get an idea of what kind of contract he can get, but he won't see an offer big enough to convince him to opt out.

fishercob · Post #17 » by **fishercob** » Sat Mar 16, 2013 11:56 am

How much do you think Ariza is worth?Full MLE money actually seems about right to me.

payitforward · Post #18 » by **payitforward** » Sat Mar 16, 2013 12:38 pm

Ariza is having his best season since LA; he is playing very well indeed. He's certainly not over-paid at his current salary, but mid-career players, aside from superstars, are almost never a bargain. It would be no surprise for him to opt out and get a richer contract from someone.

A useful comparison is Chandler Parsons -- he and Ariza are doing mostly the same things, the same level of productivity. Parsons is a little better shooter; Trevor is a better defensive player and rebounder. But... Parsons is on a rookie contract, which makes him a) tremendous value and b) a much more tradable asset than a mid-career guy doing the same stuff.

Webster, on the other hand, is obviously a bargain -- but, again, he's likely to get a significantly better contract going forward. With us I hope.

payitforward · Post #19 » by **payitforward** » Sat Mar 16, 2013 12:40 pm

fishercob wrote:Ariza is 6 months older than Webster...

Make that 17 months older... 6/30/85 vs. 12/1/86.

Post #20 » by **nate33** » Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:00 pm

fishercob wrote:How much do you think Ariza is worth?Full MLE money actually seems about right to me.

Full MLE money would be the lower end. Anything less than that and I'm pretty sure he won't opt out. I'm not even sure if full MLE money would be enough to convince him to take a $2.7M pay cut next year.

If he asked for a full MLE money from the Wizards (and Webster was willing to take $4M), I'd go with Webster. I don't think it's wise to pay both.