Around the NBA part 4

[chales_zed]

Like I said a while back, Lin's box-score stats aren't the best indicator of how good he is as a player. If those were the best metrics for player evaluation than analysts and statisticians would be out of a job.

The Rockets are the 3rd ranked offense in the league while scoring the 2nd most PPG. Of course, their game is highly predicated on pace and fastbreaks but they have no post scorer or 2nd star player so this is an impressive feat.

The engine for their offense is Harden & Lin.

The Houston Rockets are #1 in drives to the basket per game.

Harden is ranked #4 in drives to the basket per game at around 9 per while averaging 1.51 points per possession, good for best in league.

Lin is ranked is ranked #9 in drives to the basket per game at 8.1 per while averaging 1.32 points per possession, the same efficiency as Tony Parker.

Of course, Lin isn't remotely as good as Tony Parker, but it's impressive to see that he averages the same points per possession generated for the team on drives to the basket, suggesting he's a very capable PG and that Linsanity obviously wasn't a fluke.

Playing next to Harden means sacrificing a lot of his personal numbers by virtue of redundancy. Of course, it goes without saying there would be benefits of playing next to him too. Assists also don't fully reflect how much better Lin makes the team. Just like Tony Parker the assists might not be sky-high but they both generate a lot of open-looks and hockey assists for their teammates by virtue of their drives to the basket causing defenses to collapse.

Another counter-example is Rajon Rondo. He had sky-high assists but he dominated the ball and made his teammates worst offensively, which is backed up by advanced metrics.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... -available

[Galloisdaman]

Yeah and Brad Miller and Nene have more win shares per 48 than Patrick Ewing.

Actually Nene does not but Micheal Jordan, Larry Bird, and Bill Russell are among the 95 NBA players that do.

Yeah. Kevin Martin too. Save the advanced stats for baseball.

There will always be some outliers in statistics but that does not prove the general point to be false. I was a huge Patrick Ewing fan. Patrick's win share statistics were very good when he was a experienced healthy good player and very bad when he was not a healthy good player. Patrick's win shares per 48 were way better than may other players when he was in his prime. Kevin Martin is 29 now. His win shares per 48 did not touch Patrick's when Patrick was 29.

[Fat Kat]

There will always be some outliers in statistics but that does not prove the general point to be false. I was a huge Patrick Ewing fan. Patrick's win share statistics were very good when he was a experienced healthy good player and very bad when he was not a healthy good player. Patrick's win shares per 48 were way better than may other players when he was in his prime. Kevin Martin is 29 now. His win shares per 48 did not touch Patrick's when Patrick was 29.

None of the advanced stats will tell you what traditional stats and your own two eyes will. Gallo is probably the 3rd best player on his team. A team where the best player isn't an allstar. He's got talent, but not the drive. A young Al Harrington.

[god shammgod]

oh god, now we're back on this.

[Galloisdaman]

There will always be some outliers in statistics but that does not prove the general point to be false. I was a huge Patrick Ewing fan. Patrick's win share statistics were very good when he was a experienced healthy good player and very bad when he was not a healthy good player. Patrick's win shares per 48 were way better than may other players when he was in his prime. Kevin Martin is 29 now. His win shares per 48 did not touch Patrick's when Patrick was 29.

None of the advanced stats will tell you what traditional stats and your own two eyes will. Gallo is probably the 3rd best player on his team. A team where the best player isn't an allstar. He's got talent, but not the drive. A young Al Harrington.

LOL so when your Patrick Ewing red herring is shot down you switch the discussion?

Traditional stats tell me he is his teams leading scorer averaging over 17 points on 13 fga a game. I think KG probably knows who is at an all star level more than you do. I also watch almost every single game that he plays in. Do you?

[ezmoney707]

oh god, now we're back on this.

its like an annoying ex girlfriend showing up every few months

[Fat Kat]

oh god, now we're back on this.

I was seriously bored.

[Thugger HBC]

oh god, now we're back on this.

I was seriously bored.

No one should be that bored.

Random note to switch gears.....

Miami is 18-5 against the West.

[god shammgod]

oh god, now we're back on this.

I was seriously bored.

No one should be that bored.

Random note to switch gears.....

Miami is 18-5 against the West.

really. what's their record against the top teams in both conferences. it was bad awhile ago if i remember right.

[chales_zed]

If the Nuggets were in the East they'd probably beat the Knicks in a play-offs series, so it's not much to say that Gallo is the third best player on a much more complete team when he's probably their 1b option.

[fdr2012]

And what's not to trust with a StatWizard such as yourself???!!!


I find that highly unlikely. It's my observation that higher usage/shot volumes usually leads to a lower percentage unless the player is good enough to warrant higher usage (i.e. young, IMPROVING players getting an increased role).

The classic example would be Allen Iverson. Always viewed as a high volume chucker, when he went to play with Melo in Denver his efficiency increased while his shot volumes and usage went down.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/iversal01.html

You see the opposite happening with James Harden this season. As his usage (shot volume, ppg, etc) shot up his efficiency numbers plummeted.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html

You can look at countless other examples. For individual players, I would actually expect to find a NEGATIVE correlation between efficiency and usage EXCEPT within the first few years of that players' career when they are IMPROVING their games and getting an increased role.

In Lin's case, I saw a player in a LOWER usage/mpg situation than last year getting lower ppg AND fg%. That is the statistical definition of a slump, especially for a young player like LIn. Those two numbers were always a good bet. I said as much at the time of the bet and you clowned me for it.

The assists make it fun That was a basketball call for me and if I'm wrong on it I can live with that.

Your're making a complete mess of things:
1. You're trying to make a point by comparing ACROSS PLAYERS (i.e. Iverson), when the point is SAME player, ACROSS games.
2. You're trying to make a point by comparing ACROSS TEAMS (i.e. OKC Harden vs. Rockets Harden). Again that makes little sense.

Lin scored more points (on average) in games in which he shot a higher FG%. That's a statistical FACT that cannot be denied. There is no debating or arguing about it.

As for your "slump" - I'm not sure what that "slump" was. When we made the bet he was shooting 438. Now he's at 440 (which could drop in one bad game). He was averaging 12.3. Now he's at 12.5. Can't see how anything is significantly different, but I'm sure you can make up a story about some eye test.

[god shammgod]

If the Nuggets were in the East they'd probably beat the Knicks in a play-offs series, so it's not much to say that Gallo is the third best player on a much more complete team when he's probably their 1b option.

you see...you see what you all did....this is why i hate all of you

[god shammgod]

i'm very torn on this indiana/nets game. who to root against. hmm.

[god shammgod]

when is boston gonna get over this whole "we can do it without rondo" push they're making ?

[fdr2012]

i'm very torn on this indiana/nets game. who to root against. hmm.

I'm going with the Pacers. I want them as the #3 seed.

[GONYK]

If the Nuggets were in the East they'd probably beat the Knicks in a play-offs series, so it's not much to say that Gallo is the third best player on a much more complete team when he's probably their 1b option.

This counts as logic now?

[Thugger HBC]

I was seriously bored.

No one should be that bored.

Random note to switch gears.....

Miami is 18-5 against the West.

really. what's their record against the top teams in both conferences. it was bad awhile ago if i remember right.

16-11 vs. above .500...Combined.

They lost to Memphis, Clip, and Utah on the road....with those first two being in November.

The only division they have a losing record against is the Central.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings/_/type/vs-division

[Thugger HBC]

i'm very torn on this indiana/nets game. who to root against. hmm.

Always the Nets fam...always.

I swear if the Nets win you'll hear how they have turned the corner again....even though they are running out of corners.

[Thugger HBC]

when is boston gonna get over this whole "we can do it without rondo" push they're making ?

Game 1 of the playoffs.

[god shammgod]

when is boston gonna get over this whole "we can do it without rondo" push they're making ?

Game 1 of the playoffs.

i was hoping for earlier. the one good thing is we probably won't see them in the first round. i wonder if atlanta trades smith and they fall out. that would make both the 7th and 8th team pretty weak.