Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[dandrews]

We're in good shape going into next year. This is a playoff caliber team (albeit 7 or 8 seed) and because of our horrible start we're going to get a top 5 pick in the draft. If they can hit on this years draft pick, we could be looking at a team that might not top out at a first round exit from the playoffs. I hope Ernie and company are doing there jobs, because this offseason will be huge in determining the future of the franchise.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Zeller is one of the hardest guys in the draft to predict. I agree with Ruz that he's got good feet for a 7-0, he's not a plodder like a lot a big white guys. My one concern is he needs a reliable jump shot to open some offensive options for him. I lean towards him being a 5. He's not quick enough to really step out an guard the perimeter on a significant basis as a 4 IMO.

Zeller may be better than Len at the moment, but I'd take Len over Zeller. Len just has more physical tools, more skills away from the basket and has had to deal with bad point guard play which has limited his opportunities. Zeller may make a quicker impact in the NBA but I suspect Len will turn out to be the better player down the line.

The more I learn about Len the more I hope the pick is Smart or Porter.

If I had to pick between Zeller and Len, I would pick Zeller 9 times out of 10. Zeller hits a very high percentage of shots and has strength to draw fouls and finish with a score. Len has much better shot blocking skills. Len lacks base strength, has weak hands, and can't go get it the way he needs to be a star. I am a Terrapin fan and perhaps I am being too hard on Alex Len, but right now I am not seeing much progress.

[hands11]

Zeller is one of the hardest guys in the draft to predict. I agree with Ruz that he's got good feet for a 7-0, he's not a plodder like a lot a big white guys. My one concern is he needs a reliable jump shot to open some offensive options for him. I lean towards him being a 5. He's not quick enough to really step out an guard the perimeter on a significant basis as a 4 IMO.

Zeller may be better than Len at the moment, but I'd take Len over Zeller. Len just has more physical tools, more skills away from the basket and has had to deal with bad point guard play which has limited his opportunities. Zeller may make a quicker impact in the NBA but I suspect Len will turn out to be the better player down the line.

The more I learn about Len the more I hope the pick is Smart or Porter.

If I had to pick between Zeller and Len, I would pick Zeller 9 times out of 10. Zeller hits a very high percentage of shots and has strength to draw fouls and finish with a score. Len has much better shot blocking skills. Len lacks base strength, has weak hands, and can't go get it the way he needs to be a star. I am a Terrapin fan and perhaps I am being too hard on Alex Len, but right now I am not seeing much progress.

You got it right CCJ. We do not want Len. We want Zeller or Plumlee if we go with a big.

We arent going to pick high enough to get Noel.

[Ruzious]

Do people here generally feel that McLemore is a better prospect than Beal?

No - especially after Beal had a great game tonight, but... I do. McLemore is a great athlete (better than Beal) with - I think - the ability to do everything Beal does - including penetrating ability.

[hands11]

Porters stock can really start to rise. He is at 15 right now.

There are going to be some good players out of this draft.

[relinquishy]

Do people here generally feel that McLemore is a better prospect than Beal?

No - especially after Beal had a great game tonight, but... I do. McLemore is a great athlete (better than Beal) with - I think - the ability to do everything Beal does - including penetrating ability.

I like McLemore but I can't say he is a better athlete than Beal. McLemore is kind of a selfish player who seems to lose his way when he's not having a good game. Beal is a very unselfish and very non-egotistical player, and I like that about him. I also don't see a reason why we should draft two "future" SG's, unless it seems locking up both and trading one later on is our best bet to get some talent, however this would greatly hamper Beal's improvement.

[stevemcqueen1]

Do people here generally feel that McLemore is a better prospect than Beal?

No - especially after Beal had a great game tonight, but... I do. McLemore is a great athlete (better than Beal) with - I think - the ability to do everything Beal does - including penetrating ability.

He's a better athlete than Beal but Beal is a really good athlete. I think you're getting a diminishing return at some point. And Beal is stronger than McLemore.

I think Beal is a better all around player than McLemore. Both growing up in St. Louis and both playing for the same AAU team, Beal was always better. He made the leap to the NBA a year ahead of McLemore and is a pretty precocious talent whereas McLemore was more of a late bloomer.

I would draft McLemore though. I think he's an extremely similar player to Beal and having two Beals would be awesome. I'd play three guard lineups and just figure it out on defense. Having a second big time shooter that's unselfish and plays hard and can stuff the stat sheet and be a dangerous weapon in transition would be awesome. That offense would be hard to defend even though it's unbalanced. The league is positionless enough now I think it could work. And you could pretty much make sure that at least one of McLemore and Beal are on the floor at all times when they are healthy. That'd be nice. And if you also kept Martell and Ariza for next year, you could ensure every lineup has two 3 ball shooters in it. Deal Crawford and get a true backup PG if you get McLemore.

[Ruzious]

Steve, while I think McLemore is significantly more likely to become an outstanding player, I agree with you about playing them together and let the other team worry about matching up with us - but I don't think any NBA GM would have the guts to try it with 2 top 5 picks - especially since both Harden and McLemore are not big 2's. I think if you have 2 really good players, even if they're similar - you can find a way to play them together.
Edit - I meant Beal; not Harden; a Freudian mistake.

[jmrosenth]

nuposse, the thing that really makes Zeller an outstanding prospect is his BBIQ. It's way ahead of Len, Noel (who I'm a huge fan of), Plumlee, and every other big in this draft. Way ahead. Wayyyyyyy ahead - if I haven't emphasized that enough. And he's not 6'10.5. NBA players are listed at their heights WITH shoes. In HS, he measured at 6'11.5. He's a legit 7 footer.

He definitely has good BBIQ, I'm not gonna deny that, although with how much they utilize him I'm surprised he doesn't have a better Assist to TO ratio with how much college defenses do against him. My other concern, at least looking at the stats, and maybe this is nitpicking since his FG% and other stats are pretty damn good already, he hasn't really really improved much from last year. I'm not too familiar with how they run their offense at Indiana, but I would expect him to dominate a bit more, especially with a season under his belt.

And it isn't his height that worries me, his standing reach or vertical has to check out in my book for him to match the physical criteria.

BTW, going to the G-town game tonight, will try to follow Porter as much I can.

I don't disagree, but I wouldn't expect him to have a high assist rate because when you score with the efficiency he scores at (which is really high - and notice he gets to the line a lot), it doesn't make much sense to pass unless you have to. And he does have a scorer's mentality. His t/o rate isn't bad.

What he's improved on is his rebounding - which was the legit criticism of his play last season. Notice his rebounding rate and progression there in his 2 years has been almost identical to Greg Monroe's.

Enjoy the game. I wouldn't mind seeing Porter in a Wiz uni next season.

According to Pomeroy, Indiana has the most efficient offense in the county, so it's a bit hard to fault Zeller for not "dominating" more. He's playing with a lot of talent around him, all guys who can score, and it's a fast-paced O that likes to run, so he doesn't get a huge amount of plays called for him.

[Dat2U]

Steve, while I think McLemore is significantly more likely to become an outstanding player, I agree with you about playing them together and let the other team worry about matching up with us - but I don't think any NBA GM would have the guts to try it with 2 top 5 picks - especially since both Harden and McLemore are not big 2's. I think if you have 2 really good players, even if they're similar - you can find a way to play them together.
Edit - I meant Beal; not Harden; a Freudian mistake.

I'm beginning to think McLemore is easily the most overrated player in this class and on the message boards. I've looked at 3 of his games recently and I'm really not seeing it.

The guy simply does not pass the eye test when he's dribbling the ball. He looks awkward. His handle is rudimentary. He's not going to create shots at the next level. He's not going to be able to handle the ball extensively at the next level. That really limits what he'll be able to do offensively. When people say he doesn't assert himself enough or he disappears for stretches that's because he has no choice. His skillset is simply limited. He has to play within the confines of the system. He's a system player (i.e. like Brandon Rush) Maybe a solid one, but a high lottery pick? I'd hope not.

[stevemcqueen1]

Steve, while I think McLemore is significantly more likely to become an outstanding player, I agree with you about playing them together and let the other team worry about matching up with us - but I don't think any NBA GM would have the guts to try it with 2 top 5 picks - especially since both Harden and McLemore are not big 2's. I think if you have 2 really good players, even if they're similar - you can find a way to play them together.
Edit - I meant Beal; not Harden; a Freudian mistake.

I think you're right. I like a BPA strategy but three top 5 pick guards seems excessive to anyone. It seems greedy. And it seems like it could be a move along the lines of just thoughtlessly collecting talent without building a complete team.

But I don't know. I think you could make it work because McLemore and Beal are such unselfish offensive players. And for me, it's a fairly sizable drop down in the talent level after McLemore's tier. If he's the last guy available from that tier, you're really deviating from BPA by picking someone else IMO. That makes me uncomfortable. I would not want to be haunted by a Drexler/Jordan scenario in ten years.

Also, you're right that McLemore and Beal are not really big for 2s. But they both manage to stuff the stat sheet anyway getting lots of blocks and rebounds and such. They are such good leapers and play bigger than their size. Plus Nene and Okafor is a sizable front court so you wouldn't be totally bullied.

[nate33]

I don't think we can pick a undersized SG. The "best player available" mantra can be taken too far. As we have discussed in the past, you apply BPA to separate players into tiers, but then you consider need when picking within that tier. Once we consider need, McLemore is going to get ruled out.

[stevemcqueen1]

Steve, while I think McLemore is significantly more likely to become an outstanding player, I agree with you about playing them together and let the other team worry about matching up with us - but I don't think any NBA GM would have the guts to try it with 2 top 5 picks - especially since both Harden and McLemore are not big 2's. I think if you have 2 really good players, even if they're similar - you can find a way to play them together.
Edit - I meant Beal; not Harden; a Freudian mistake.

I'm beginning to think McLemore is easily the most overrated player in this class and on the message boards. I've looked at 3 of his games recently and I'm really not seeing it.

The guy simply does not pass the eye test when he's dribbling the ball. He looks awkward. His handle is rudimentary. He's not going to create shots at the next level. He's not going to be able to handle the ball extensively at the next level. That really limits what he'll be able to do offensively. When people say he doesn't assert himself enough or he disappears for stretches that's because he has no choice. His skillset is simply limited. He has to play within the confines of the system. He's a system player (i.e. like Brandon Rush) Maybe a solid one, but a high lottery pick? I'd hope not.

You're focusing too much on just one aspect of his game and losing perspective on all of the other things that are strengths for him. He had an incredible game last night. He dropped 30 on 13 shots in an absolute must win game against their biggest rival. It was a terrific all around performance and he was using dribble penetration to get into the lane and create space for his teammates before passing to the open guy, so he was doing some facilitating. He can do it. He's been playing with a much better pace to his game, slowing down and picking his way to open spots, making very deliberate decisions with the ball instead of just trying to win with his straight line speed.

He's been growing as a player as the season progresses. He really reminds me of Beal almost every time I see him now.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't think we can pick a undersized SG. The "best player available" mantra can be taken too far. As we have discussed in the past, you apply BPA to separate players into tiers, but then you consider need when picking within that tier. Once we consider need, McLemore is going to get ruled out.

Not if he's the only player left in his tier though. I think that's unlikely but it's conceivable. Personally, I've got him in the top tier with 3 other guys: Noel, Zeller, Muhammad. Say we pick 4th or 5th and he's the only one of those guys left. I think there is a pretty substantial drop down to the second tier of guys like Len, Austin, Smart, Bennett, and Porter. I don't think you can veer that far away from BPA in the NBA draft. Not picking in the top 5. At the very least, you draft McLemore and search for trade partners. He as a trade asset is still more valuable than any of the other players below him in tier.

[nate33]

Too bad Houston won't trade us Harden for McLemore...

[Ruzious]

Yeah, that was the first game where you could see the freshman McLemore essentially saying "I'm taking over" and he did right from the start of the game - when he DROVE TO THE BASKET for a layup. It was a GREAT performance in a huge game. Compare him to Goodwin of Kentucky - the other extremely physically gifted shooting guard. Goodwin is a great penetrator - someone who is gifted at creating his own shot, but his individualistic play takes his team out of rhythm so much of the time, and he has no outside shot. Granted, he's younger, and he'll improve, but I don't think there's any doubt that McLemore is the better prospect - even though he's the guy with the rep as a shooter, while Goodwin is the guy who creates his own shots.

[pancakes3]

Those guys may be in the same tier (I think Noel is a tier higher than the rest) but that doesn't make them "top" tier. None of those guys are on the "consensus locks" tier like Durant/Melo, or "near-consensus locks" tier like Anthony Davis/John Wall. In accordance with others, I see Zeller, Muhammad, and McLemore as 3rd tier guys - guys with upside but a sizable chunk of uncertainty added, more along the lines of Sullinger, Cousins, and DeJuan Blair (or Kevin Love/Steph Curry for a more optimistic group).

[Ruzious]

Btw, I was also impressed with Bennett (another guy Dat doesn't like ) the other day. He was using his power game rather than trying to prove he can play the 3 (which he can't in the NBA), and he is a powerhouse with skill and aggression. As long as he plays to his strengths, he's really good.

[Dat2U]

Yeah, that was the first game where you could see the freshman McLemore essentially saying "I'm taking over" and he did right from the start of the game - when he DROVE TO THE BASKET for a layup. It was a GREAT performance in a huge game. Compare him to Goodwin of Kentucky - the other extremely physically gifted shooting guard. Goodwin is a great penetrator - someone who is gifted at creating his own shot, but his individualistic play takes his team out of rhythm so much of the time, and he has no outside shot. Granted, he's younger, and he'll improve, but I don't think there's any doubt that McLemore is the better prospect - even though he's the guy with the rep as a shooter, while Goodwin is the guy who creates his own shots.

Let me clean that up for you:

Yeah, that was the first game where you could see the 20 year old McLemore essentially saying "I'm taking over" and he did right from the start of the game - when he got the tip and took two basic dribbles to get a layup at the rim without defensive interference

McLemore may be better than Goodwin (I agree with you on Goodwin) but that doesn't make him worthy of a top 5 pick.

[Dat2U]

Doesn't really matter if Zeller is 7" or not. He has a 6'9 wingspan, which probably means a short standing reach. Basically he's a center with the wingspan of some guards.

I think the measurements are going to be important for him. If he truly does have a short standing reach, that will negatively affect his draft position.

If his standing reach is similar to his brother's (8'8") then we maybe looking at late lottery pick/mid 1st rounder.