The Completely Irrational Playoff Watch

[dobrojim]

Nats/Skins/Orioles/Caps/Ravens have all made the playoffs over the past year. Wizards will complete the DC/B'More area sweep.

And because I'm too lazy to look it up, I wonder if all teams have been in the playoffs over a year period at the same time - Caps, Redskins, Bullets/Wizards and DC pro baseball team.

The answer would almost certainly be NO.

The Senators basically never made post-season between the 1930s
and the departure of the franchises to MIN and TEX.

Skins had some good years in the 1980s.
Bullets/Wizards were perennial playoff team from late 60s up through the late 1980s. After that, not so much.
Caps weren't consistently good until fairly recently.

[jmrosenth]

I've raised the bar though. Forget playoffs and think championships in the same season for Wizards, Nats, and Redskins. I may retire as a sports fan when that happens.

[closg00]

Toronto is on a winning-streak since acquiring Gay, they are up 4 games on us.

Regarding the lottery-watch, we currently are currently tied for 3rd worst record. What a great thread

[Higga]

The Skins were 3-6 and won the division.

F it, lets go for it.

Do you see RG3 and Morris in a Wizards Jersey?

Wall and Beal are a poor man's RG3/Morris.

[montestewart]

Caps weren't consistently good until fairly recently.

Actually, the Caps made the playoffs every year from 1983 to 1996, and also made it to the Stanley Cup finals in 1998. As with today, they just couldn't get over the hump in the playoffs, but compared to the Wizards, the Caps have been a model of success for a long time.

[Zonkerbl]

If your "true" probability of winning any given game is 30%, your chance of winning 26 or more games out of 32 is 0.0000003%.

50%: 0.03%

60%: 0.9%

70%: 11.3%

75%: 27.8%

80%: 53.6%.

So if you believe that the Zards are truly one of the four best teams in the league with a “true” probability of winning of 70%, their chance of making it to .500 is still only 11.3%. Yeesh!

[Joe_Wiz]

Of course this whole thread is ridiculous, but one couldn't have remained a fan of this team for decades on end without contemplating such absurdities. My absurd thought on this topic (even before seeing this thread) was that we need to go 22-10 the rest of the way while Milwaukee goes 12-20 and no one in between catches them.

The just-miss-the-playoffs-but-win-the-lottery scenario has been a recurring fantasy for me over the years, and has resurfaced recently.

Long live unrealistic optimism!

[Ruzious]

Would it be considered being negative if I said - an asteroid just came within 17,000 miles from earth, and that's closer than the odds of Washington making the playoffs?

[tontoz]

The All-Star break is very timely. It gives hands plenty of time to mix another batch of Kook-Aid. I think the last batch ran out.

[montestewart]

The Wizards' runs of overall good play and pretty consistently good defense illustrates why some (like hands11) are perpetually enthused and others (like myself) are chronically skeptical of the team's direction. It's not like they have nothing. In Wall and Beal, the team has two good young players who could still rise to all-star level at some point. They have the key veterans in Nene, Okafor, and after poor or injured starts, the three became big contributors. They even had pretty good success with their budget free agent signings, Webster excellent, Price pretty good, and even Temple occasionally showing something. On top of all that, the team's defense has made dramatic strides, and that's a reminder that it's not just about having athletes (though that doesn't hurt), it's about stocking the team with people that think about defense (that think at all), work hard, and buy into the defensive mentality.

All that is great to see, and I've really enjoyed watching the games recently, but when I hear Leonsis trumpet the successes with some sense of satisfaction, I always get the feeling that he really is satisfied. Sellout games and delusional spin put a grin on his face. He doesn't want to hear about the young players ascending as the older ones descend, about the expense of keeping young players just as the older ones' contracts expire, about the many draft picks that don't appear to be panning out. In my many years of watching basketball, it's hard for me to recall a team like this ascending to contender status, not with an owner and GM seemingly so satisfied with their moves and apparently prepared to stand pat. I hope I'm wrong about that last part.

[Severn Hoos]

OK, first off - this is NOT a post to say that the playoffs are a possibility this year. Obviously, that ain't happening. And it's not a post to endorse the moves the FO has made in assembling this team. However, there is one thing that I found interesting in the results so far from the Wizards this season. Against the top 10 teams in the league (top 5 in each conference, though CHI is tied with GSW for 10th best record overall), the Wizards are 7-12 by my count. Now, 37% isn't a great winning percentage overall, but if you can win at that rate against the elite teams, you should be in the playoff picture, at least.

However - against the rest of the league, the Wiz are 8-24, for a putrid winning % of .250. I know some of the difference is in the schedule - who they played when, who was missing, etc. But 37% against the elite should correspond to something like 60% against the also-rans. If they did have a 60% rate against the other 19 teams, they'd be in the 7/8 spot - and that's not even accounting for the additional losses they would have pinned on ATL, BOS, and MIL.

Again, that's not an endorsement of the roster, but it's where I believe this team should be - and would be this year if they had all been available from the beginning. The experience of a playoff run, at least one series against a true contender, and the chance to evaluate Wall through the process - I believe that was the goal for this year. You may not have agreed with that goal (championship or bust!), but in their own myopic way, I think they got what they were aiming for. The question was - and still is - is it a step through mediocrity to greatness, or is it a peak, to be followed by a decline back to irrelevancy and despair?

I'm a Bullets fan, so I think I know the answer to that one.

[jmrosenth]

The question was - and still is - is it a step through mediocrity to greatness, or is it a peak, to be followed by a decline back to irrelevancy and despair?

I'm a Bullets fan, so I think I know the answer to that one.

With that one sentence Sev just summarized the franchise for the last 35 years.

[jmrosenth]

IBTL

[Deivy202]

http://www.nba.com/standings/team_recor ... d_Cnf.html

I know this sounds silly but we have potential to sneak into the playoffs . We won 3 straight AND also have a weak division with Bucs been losing and every one else trying catch up are on a losing streak.

We have a shot and we been playing good ball these past 3 games!Just a thread of thoughts since the trade forum is all but gonna be down till off-season.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

If the Wizards win every single game from here on out, they will finish with 45 wins giving them a win percentage better than the current 7th seed.

In order to finish with the same win percentage as the current 8th seed, they will need to win 22 out of the remaining 27 games meaning they'll need to finish with a win percentage of 0.815.

Sooooo, I highly doubt it.

[montestewart]

Back 8th seed sounds like a farming term. Wizards are cultivating success, and the field is wide open. I predict a bountiful harvest.

[jmrosenth]

Can one of the mods unlock my playoff watch thread from the 2nd page? For some reason I have the power to lock it but can't figure out how to unlock it...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If the Wizards win every single game from here on out, they will finish with 45 wins giving them a win percentage better than the current 7th seed.

In order to finish with the same win percentage as the current 8th seed, they will need to win 22 out of the remaining 27 games meaning they'll need to finish with a win percentage of 0.815.

Sooooo, I highly doubt it.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/standings;_ ... pVC1UKPaB4

The current 8th seed is 26-28, and what you're saying 20MI1V is the Wizards need to finish 40-42 to match pace. While you're correct you are assuming is that the Bucks keep their win pace to reach 40 wins. However, they could end up with far fewer wins. Note:

Milwaukee went 2-8 the last 10 games.
Washington went 7-3 the last 10 games.

Trending performance seems to show the Buck might fall off their pace. Possibly, 37-8 games or less is what they will end up with. The other teams ahead of the Wizards and trailing the 8th seeded Bucks are not better than Washington right now.

Philadelphia and Detroit went 4-6 the last 10 games.
Toronto went 6-4 the last 10, including losing to the Wizards.

So, I think the Wizards can possibly get in with 37 or 38 wins. I doubt they'll need 40 wins.

I think

[Higga]

Well the Skins won the NFC East after starting 3-6, so to quote KG: "Anything is possible."

[Deivy202]

We been winning more than losing lately so i wouldnt be surprised if ee snuck in if we can win 5straight tham wow