Official Speculation Thread (Pt. L "Trade Deadline" Edition)

[Def Swami]

Is this even worth arguing over? None of us here are GM's, so it's all speculation.

This is the GOAT post in the history of the series of these threads.

[MagicFan32]

Is this even worth arguing over? None of us here are GM's, so it's all speculation.

this, the filling of this thread with ridiculous unrealistic trades, instead of actual info is boring

[drsd]

Here we are with three days and some hour to the deadline. Those keeping score: it's officially at 3PM EST on Thursday.

Right now it seems certain that the Clippers will make a deal. One might expect Boston and Milwaukee to make some major moves as well. Mark Cuban has promised to "open the bank" whatever that means. And Atlanta might be likely to ship Josh Smith. Chicago needs A SG. I see these as the major moves in the coming days.

Several of those teams have targeted Redick.

But where doe Harrington and McRoberts go? Could GM Hennigan actually retain one or both?


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[ChosenSavior]

Is this even worth arguing over? None of us here are GM's, so it's all speculation.

This is the GOAT post in the history of the series of these threads.

[drsd]

Trade #1:
The more I think about this, the more sense it is for Chicago and Orlando to get involved in a Teague for Redick deal. Yes other pieces will be involved. Maybe McRoberts and Smith from Orlando's side. And almost certainly Hamilton from Chicago's. Redick and McRoberts for Hamilton, Teague, and a late 2013 1st (maybe for Burke if available so late?). This is fair and good for both teams. Chicago gets the SG they need for a 2013/14 run. Orlando gets a PG that could plausible replace Nelson in a year or two.

Trade #2:
Houston needs so size to make a dent in the playoffs, and has a bunch of assets. Orlando has Harrington on its edges. Perhaps this has salary issues, but Harrington in a package that brings in Terrence Jones or Cole Aldrich would be something GM Hennigan would look at. If Houston want to shore up its guard rotation, Moore might be of an interest. Harrington, Moore, and Ayon for Terrence Jones and Cole Aldrich might be a roster upgrade for Orlando and helps Houston in the coming playoffs.

For the 2013/14 Magic, the starting roster is:
Nelson/Teague
Afflalo/Hamilton
Harkless/Jones-T/Jones-D
Davis/Nicholson
Vučević/Aldrich/O'Quinn

With Orlando's two 1sts, needs at SG and PF could be resolved, in that order. Let's call it Shabazz Muhammad and Kelly Olynyk.

The 2013/14 Magic is then:
Nelson/Teague
Afflalo/Muhammad/Hamilton
Harkless/Jones-T/Jones-D
Davis/Nicholson/Olynyk
Vučević/Aldrich/O'Quinn

This is a very, very, very young team. The contracts of these players fails to take the team to the 90% salary requirement. But as Arenas and Turkoglu are still on the books, this low salary level works for one year. This team might not be good, but it would be fun.


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[Bensational]

Is this even worth arguing over? None of us here are GM's, so it's all speculation.

This is the GOAT post in the history of the series of these threads.

Welcome to "the official speculation thread". Or did you guys miss the title on the way in?

[glennathan]

@Happywalters: For the record, no one has requested an Iman trade from the Knicks. The report from Chris Sheridan is incorrect.

@Happywalters: @sheridanhoops needs to check facts before reporting. As Iman's agent, you would think I would get a call fact checking a report. Really?

[Rick Rolled]

@Happywalters: For the record, no one has requested an Iman trade from the Knicks. The report from Chris Sheridan is incorrect.

@Happywalters: @sheridanhoops needs to check facts before reporting. As Iman's agent, you would think I would get a call fact checking a report. Really?

He doesn't sound too happy.......

[Def Swami]

With 4 days left until the trade deadline, I'm going to guess that JJ doesn't get traded and he is re-signed in the off-season. The teams with assets we'd like are too awful for JJ to re-sign with, and the teams that JJ is likely to re-sign with don't really have the assets we'd like. I could very well see our front office saying that keeping JJ is better than anything we'd get back in a trade.

Afflalo stays past the deadline too. I think we do our work in the off-season, around the draft.

[ChosenSavior]

This is the GOAT post in the history of the series of these threads.

Welcome to "the official speculation thread". Or did you guys miss the title on the way in?

Um the guy you quoted just said it's all speculation or did you miss that in his post?

His point has to do with the arguing and sometimes name calling that goes on here cause someone posts their opinion on how the team should be rebuilt, what trades to do, etc.

[drsd]

With 4 days left until the trade deadline, I'm going to guess that JJ doesn't get traded and he is re-signed in the off-season. The teams with assets we'd like are too awful for JJ to re-sign with, and the teams that JJ is likely to re-sign with don't really have the assets we'd like. I could very well see our front office saying that keeping JJ is better than anything we'd get back in a trade.

Afflalo stays past the deadline too. I think we do our work in the off-season, around the draft.

Note that under said scenario, Redick would be untradeable per the CBA, and Afflalo thus becomes the off-season trade-chip.


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[eyriq]

Going into the '13-'14 season we'll have $41.9M tied up in veterans, closer to $50M if you wish to resign Redick. There would be some wiggle room as we could slash $10M by cutting Harrington and Hedo this offseason, allowing us to chase a top flight free agent this early in the rebuild, even with keeping Redick. Should we stand pat with our veterans by the '14-'15 season we'll have $29.96M, or $38M if we keep Redick, invested in veterans. There is still some wiggle room as we can shave $10M by cutting Nelson and Harrington. In the '14- '15 season we could be positioned to grab multiple top flight free agents, if you don't keep Redick and cut Nelson and Harrington.

My thinking is that going for a top flight free agent as early a this offseason is a mistake. First of all we aren't likely to have as dominant a hand cap wise as we would by waiting. Secondly, we'd be increasing our winning percentage and lowering our lottery odds for the '13-'14 season, and I strongly feel that we are only getting a franchise player by tanking next season. Thirdly, waiting till next offseason to sign a top flight free agent means we'd likely be building around two high lottery picks, our rookie contracts from the Dwight trade, our rookie contracts from the '12 draft, and our veterans Afflalo and BBD. I'd much rather swap out those veterans for Nelson and Redick but that would take some fancy trading and besides Afflalo and BBD probably help our lottery odds.

Most likely though we prolong the rebuild due to loyalty to Nelson and Redick and don't see the top flight free agent until '15-'16.

If we trade JJ I'd love to see it in conjunction with moving BBD too. Then we can keep Nelson and go shopping next offseason, while still tanking next season. I see us back in the playoffs two seasons from now if we make the right trades to free up cap space for next offseason.

[KingRobb02]

Honestly, it's pretty pathetic if Orlando don't even make the smallest move before the trade deadline. I'm not pro trading JJ, but I am for trading ONE of JJ or Afflalo. This team is in a rebuilding process, enough of these 7-8m dollar veterans, it's time to clear cap space and hope for the best moving forward.

The thing to remember is that we aren't trying to win this year or next year so immediate cap space is not in the plan. If we make "the smallest move before the trade deadline" we are basically just rearranging money when we don't need to. Looking at our salary, we have only Davis and Afflalo signed to big money in 2014-2015 (Jameer and Al are ungaranteed). Trading JJ or the TPE for anything that we would have to pay big money before 2014 just doesn't make sense long-term. Unless the small move is to trade away Davis or Harrington (injured) or Afflalo (not good enough to bring in value) it's not worth it.

[Tayswagzzz]

So far Hennigan has done a lot of right things. His scouting led us to Vucevic (I remember reading somewhere he really liked him before the Magic) drafting Nicholson, and saw talent in Harkless. So far all 3 of these guys have been great/good for us. Harrington was a contract we had to take on to get the deal done, but IMO, it's not terrible because I still think we can move him, he'd be great on a contender. Keep Jameer/JJ until they retire. I don't even want to think about trading either of them, they've been my favorite basketball players for a long time and definitely my favorite Magic players. Sometimes in this league there is a such thing as loyalty and I think we have that with Jameer and JJ.

So, if we don't make any moves by trade deadline, we can go one of two routes,

1) Continue tanking, rebuilding through draft 13-14' season, hopefully snag a franchise player.
2) Players are healthy, we grab an elite free agent and make the playoffs. Chances of us getting a super star seem real slim. If we did though, it's possible we could be a title contender if our players are healthy.

Really it can only go one of those two ways, but I don't see us getting a super-star in free agency with the roster we have right now, so I would want to go with option 1. All in all I am happy where the magic are, and I think with our FO we can't go wrong getting a top 5 pick this draft. Continue tanking!!!

[OrlandO]

Honestly, it's pretty pathetic if Orlando don't even make the smallest move before the trade deadline. I'm not pro trading JJ, but I am for trading ONE of JJ or Afflalo. This team is in a rebuilding process, enough of these 7-8m dollar veterans, it's time to clear cap space and hope for the best moving forward.

We have plenty of time to move Afflalo. If we can sign JJ, he becomes even more valuable as a future asset as he'd be locked up and that'd open us to more trade partners. And $7-8 million is nothing for a quality vet in their prime on a rebuilding team. Henny will make moves when the time is right...

I don't think we're making any moves until around draft day at the earliest. See our options first, make adjustments later. You do it the other way and you screw yourself.

[rcklsscognition]

Honestly, it's pretty pathetic if Orlando don't even make the smallest move before the trade deadline. I'm not pro trading JJ, but I am for trading ONE of JJ or Afflalo. This team is in a rebuilding process, enough of these 7-8m dollar veterans, it's time to clear cap space and hope for the best moving forward.

We have plenty of time to move Afflalo. If we can sign JJ, he becomes even more valuable as a future asset as he'd be locked up and that'd open us to more trade partners. And $7-8 million is nothing for a quality vet in their prime on a rebuilding team. Henny will make moves when the time is right...

I don't think we're making any moves until around draft day at the earliest. See our options first, make adjustments later. You do it the other way and you screw yourself.

I wonder, who is JJ's agent going to compare him to when he's negotiating a salary? Do you all see anyone around the league that the agent can say, this guy is similar to JJ and he's earning XXXX a year?

[trebone]

Honestly, it's pretty pathetic if Orlando don't even make the smallest move before the trade deadline. I'm not pro trading JJ, but I am for trading ONE of JJ or Afflalo. This team is in a rebuilding process, enough of these 7-8m dollar veterans, it's time to clear cap space and hope for the best moving forward.

We have plenty of time to move Afflalo. If we can sign JJ, he becomes even more valuable as a future asset as he'd be locked up and that'd open us to more trade partners. And $7-8 million is nothing for a quality vet in their prime on a rebuilding team. Henny will make moves when the time is right...

I don't think we're making any moves until around draft day at the earliest. See our options first, make adjustments later. You do it the other way and you screw yourself.

I wonder, who is JJ's agent going to compare him to when he's negotiating a salary? Do you all see anyone around the league that the agent can say, this guy is similar to JJ and he's earning XXXX a year?

I would think J Terry he got wht 5-6 per?

[rcklsscognition]

I would think J Terry he got wht 5-6 per?

Yeah, that would be similar. Also OJ Mayo at 5.2 I think. I think we'll have to overpay him to stay, market value for JJ is around 5.5 or less if he isn't starting.

[magicman123]

Honestly, it's pretty pathetic if Orlando don't even make the smallest move before the trade deadline. I'm not pro trading JJ, but I am for trading ONE of JJ or Afflalo. This team is in a rebuilding process, enough of these 7-8m dollar veterans, it's time to clear cap space and hope for the best moving forward.

We have plenty of time to move Afflalo. If we can sign JJ, he becomes even more valuable as a future asset as he'd be locked up and that'd open us to more trade partners. And $7-8 million is nothing for a quality vet in their prime on a rebuilding team. Henny will make moves when the time is right...

I don't think we're making any moves until around draft day at the earliest. See our options first, make adjustments later. You do it the other way and you screw yourself.

I wonder, who is JJ's agent going to compare him to when he's negotiating a salary? Do you all see anyone around the league that the agent can say, this guy is similar to JJ and he's earning XXXX a year?

Kobe and Wade......jk...I think something similar to his last contract would be the starting point, maybe more years but less annual salary??

[silent1900]

I'm not sure we are gonna see a lot of $6-10 mil/yr guys in the new CBA landscape. I think there will be a lot of 'new' max guys, a lot of minimum guys, rookie deals, and not a lot of middle class.