The Lebron Thread (Pt. 2)

[PCProductions]

To be honest, the fact that he doesn't care to get those 60-70 points is one of the things I really like about him. It really proves that he ain't about that life. He just wants to win games, period.

[ardee]

To be honest, the fact that he doesn't care to get those 60-70 points is one of the things I really like about him. It really proves that he ain't about that life. He just wants to win games, period.

'That' life? Not saying it's a requirement but Kobe, MJ and Wilt, three of the top 8 greatest players ever, have all broken that barrier multiple times. You make it sound like high scoring is an undesirable faucet of a player's game. If done correctly and efficiently an ultra volume scorer can be one of the most demoralizing players to play against.

And btw, I think this thread should be stickied for obvious reasons.

[ThatsWhatIShved]

It's important not to mistake "not wanting 60 points" for "defense actually starts to account for you." I don't think I've seen an Allstar level player that doesn't seem to be gameplanned for like Lebron except for maybe Marion. It's insane that teams send guys like Barea, Bibby and Admunson to guard him. Hell, the Thunder played him one on one with varitions of Martin, KD and Westbrook Thabo guarded him a little but picked up some quick ticky tack fouls iirc. Melo and Kobe are never that lucky. It's Thabo and KD double teams for them all game. Makes you wonder if there is some sort of unwritten rule about the lack of defense you must play against James.

[SweetTouch]

Insert billy Madison YouTube clip here


NTP

[colts18]

LeBron is the only player in NBA history to have a 55% FG% while shooting at least 3 3PA/game. No one is combining his overall efficiency while being a perimeter oriented.

[starvinmarvin17]

It's important not to mistake "not wanting 60 points" for "defense actually starts to account for you." I don't think I've seen an Allstar level player that doesn't seem to be gameplanned for like Lebron except for maybe Marion. It's insane that teams send guys like Barea, Bibby and Admunson to guard him. Hell, the Thunder played him one on one with varitions of Martin, KD and Westbrook Thabo guarded him a little but picked up some quick ticky tack fouls iirc. Melo and Kobe are never that lucky. It's Thabo and KD double teams for them all game. Makes you wonder if there is some sort of unwritten rule about the lack of defense you must play against James.

Do you even watch basketball? Go ahead watch a game where they are doubling Lebron all game. When you double Durant he turns it over when you double Kobe he chucks its up. When you double Lebron wade scores 40. Or chalmers hits 10 threes or game 5 against thunder happens.

[starvinmarvin17]

To be honest, the fact that he doesn't care to get those 60-70 points is one of the things I really like about him. It really proves that he ain't about that life. He just wants to win games, period.

'That' life? Not saying it's a requirement but Kobe, MJ and Wilt, three of the top 8 greatest players ever, have all broken that barrier multiple times. You make it sound like high scoring is an undesirable faucet of a player's game. If done correctly and efficiently an ultra volume scorer can be one of the most demoralizing players to play against.

And btw, I think this thread should be stickied for obvious reasons.

Top 8? I got wilt and MJ there but I don't know about that other guy

[toodles23]

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/17/3 ... ident.html

Lots of over the top hyperbole in this article, but there was one interesting piece of info in there:

"At the miserable end of the miserable end, back in 2011, Riley says he had “a bunch of [expletive] written down” to share with James at their exit meeting. About spending time with a psychologist. About working on a jump hook. About losing weight. And there were an assortment of spiritual nuggets and philosophical quotes, too. But he discarded it all as soon as a hollow, haunted James walked into the room, figuring that what James really needed was just to go somewhere and suffer, alone with his shame."

Seems like Riley was a really good influence on Lebron after the '11 season. Also confirms a suspicion we all had, that he lost weight in the '11 offseason.

[fatal9]

LeBron's eFG% on jumpshots by year (percentage of overall field goal attempts that were jumpers in brackets):

'06 - 41.1% (63.4%)
'07 - 38.3% (65.9%)
'08 - 38.6% (62.8%)
'09 - 43.4% (63.8%)
'10 - 44.2% (64.1%)
'11 - 43.3% (67.1%)
'12 - 43.0% (64.3%)
'13 - 49.6% (!) (61.4%)

Shot selection is obviously one of the reasons for this, shot distribution has been adjusted too, but there seems to be a real skill improvement in his jumper to go with that, which is why his FT shooting is kind of puzzling to me (seems like it has improved as season has gone on though). That’s a huge leap, 50ish eFG% on jumpshots is approaching elite category when you compare him with other good jumpshooters around the league (though the rise is more due to his three point shooting improving than midrange game becoming elite) and he is surrounding that with a really versatile offensive game which has made him more unguardable than ever. Defensively, the entire team has been inconsistent (Miami is also running more offense oriented lineups than they have past two years, limiting Joel Anthony's minutes for example), but he shows his true capabilities in high profile games so in the playoffs we should see that type of defense and intensity from him.

I had him as top 5ish peak last year, but he’s even better now, his jumpshot is better, his decision making has always been good but even that has improved, his shot distribution is basically perfect, physically this is the best he has looked since putting on a Heat uniform, his offensive versatility is better than it has ever been due to improvements in post game, his portability has improved due to better spot up shooting and learning to break some of his habits from the Cavs days, his confidence is at an all-time high, can’t rattle him, he has matured and knows how good he is. The Riley article above, while may be filled with some hyperbole, I think is a good read on his maturation as a player. In the last few weeks he has gone to another gear and when you look at some other legendary peak seasons, you often see stretches of sustained dominance start up around mid-season that extend through the end of the season where everything in their game comes together, physical talent is maximized with skill, maturity and intelligence like never before, individual greatness is in synchrony with the team, motivation and confidence is at an all-time high. That's the type of gear LeBron is in right now. I should really wait till the end of the season but at this point, I can say that this season by LeBron will be right with the two players who imo have the GOAT peak ('91 MJ and '93 Hakeem)...and I'm not sure if LeBron can't just be the flat out greatest (like SSB mentioned in the peaks thread). These three guys are the greatest all-around and most impactful two way players at their position for me, who is better depends on what you need and personal preference.

[90sAllDecade]

I can agree with fatal9's post. The other day I heard a convincing argument for LeBron challenging one of Jordan's peaks, I researched his competition/team support and it wasn't as tough as I thought it would be. It's still a GOAT level peak dominance, but it didn't look impossible to top like I thought it would be.

At the same time Hakeem's peak was GOAT level considering competition/team support and two way dominance/clutchness, but if LeBron faced top level competition and put up MJ/Hakeem 2 way dominance throughout the playoffs (the regular season will always count less than the competitive pressure, game planning and defense of the playoffs imo) he could reach it one year.

This is the first year I've seen him exhibit Jordan esq level mental strength with the resulting total dominance, it's still early in the regular season though.

For example if he went through prime Carmelo, old Pierce, All Star version Paul George and the Pacer defense and prime Durant in a playoff championship run and totally dominated all of them offensively/defensively in clutch fashion he could take it imo.

[SideshowBob]

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/17/3 ... ident.html

...

Seems like Riley was a really good influence on Lebron after the '11 season. Also confirms a suspicion we all had, that he lost weight in the '11 offseason.

Yeah he certainly did. Look at some of the highlights from that season; he looks bulky, lacks the same body control on leaps, clearly lacks explosion in the half court, lacks agility, even his full court acceleration is a step down, and he doesn't consistently get up as high as he does now.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TudqEW1AsA[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHK5KlCjWzg[/youtube]


His midrange jumpshot was unreal that year though. He's better from outside now, but I don't know if he's as good inside the arc as he was that season.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_-5PE4AobY[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxf6rsdNzAg[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwYUsnrs_us[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmZ1mzl8yUM[/youtube]

[SideshowBob]

Also, judging by what we saw in 2011 and to an extent in 2012, is it really that crazy to assume that Lebron's going to have exceptional longevity?

In 2011 he was a 27/8/7 on 59% TS (28/8/6 on 61% TS for the last 75% of the season) player and that's WHILE sharing the ball with a significantly better Wade (seriously, he looks godly in 2011 compared to now). That's with his skillset still underdeveloped compared to this year, a similar jumper, no back-to-basket game or any semblance of a post-game to boot, far weaker off-ball ability, and obviously very little in the way of conventional elite basketball athleticism.

Then last year, with slight improvements in the physical department, the addition of an off-ball game and the tinkering with the post-play, he was putting up a monster statistical season (27.7/8.4/6.7 in 37 minutes a game on 63% TS in the first 40 odd games of the season), then putting up quite an impressive run in the playoffs.


Considering how much he's improving skill-wise year-on-year, it would seem that he'd be AT LEAST able to replicate his 2011 season once his athleticism starts fading again as he ages. If not be outright better. That seems like a very encouraging sign, no?

[SideshowBob]

NBA.com's new stats engine finally lets us take a look at scoring breakdowns. Here's the % of James's points that were scored on the fastbreak, just as an observation.

RS

2004 - 24.5%
2005 - 20.3%
2006 - 19.7%
2007 - 17.4%
2008 - 17.3%
2009 - 18.2%
2010 - 20.4%
2011 - 21.6%
2012 - 21.6%
2013 - 19.9% (trending downwards)

PS

2006 - 15.3%
2007 - 15.2%
2008 - 18.9%
2009 - 20.2%
2010 - 16.6%
2011 - 18.1%
2012 - 17.2%

[jjgp111292]

To be fair, LeBron's FT% has been dragged down by the first 12-ish games. Since about the Cavs game, he's been shooting 77% which is about where he's been since '08-09.

The main improvement I've noticed with his jumpshot, especially on 3's, is the balance and follow-through. Now I'm more surprised when his 3's don't go in, especially on the left side of the floor.

[PCProductions]

Also, judging by what we saw in 2011 and to an extent in 2012, is it really that crazy to assume that Lebron's going to have exceptional longevity?

In 2011 he was a 27/8/7 on 59% TS (28/8/6 on 61% TS for the last 75% of the season) player and that's WHILE sharing the ball with a significantly better Wade (seriously, he looks godly in 2011 compared to now). That's with his skillset still underdeveloped compared to this year, a similar jumper, no back-to-basket game or any semblance of a post-game to boot, far weaker off-ball ability, and obviously very little in the way of conventional elite basketball athleticism.

Then last year, with slight improvements in the physical department, the addition of an off-ball game and the tinkering with the post-play, he was putting up a monster statistical season (27.7/8.4/6.7 in 37 minutes a game on 63% TS in the first 40 odd games of the season), then putting up quite an impressive run in the playoffs.


Considering how much he's improving skill-wise year-on-year, it would seem that he'd be AT LEAST able to replicate his 2011 season once his athleticism starts fading again as he ages. If not be outright better. That seems like a very encouraging sign, no?

Anybody that believes Lebron relies purely on his athleticism to succeed is deeply misinformed. As much as his critics like to find what's wrong with his game, there are so many talents that he possesses that I'm inclined to believe that he'll age better than Jordan. I'm not one to entertain player vs. player debates, but I'm thinking that this is a player that will define what a complete basketball player is.

[Dr Positivity]

SB - It depends what you mean by exceptional longevity. Personally the thing I look at is MP. The problem for LBJ is that as a high school prospect who's averaged 39.8mpg in the RS, never gotten injured and played tons of PS games, he's shockingly far in if judged by MP. After this season he'll be at about 36-36.5k minutes which is lots. Dirk and Pierce are at about 44k. Nash around 41k. Duncan has 47k. Vince and Jamison have like 38k, LBJ should pass them by next year. Or put it this way: MJ after 92, a good comp for after this season for Lebron, had only 26 thousand minutes played. Jordan at his 98 retirement had 43 thousand minutes. So when considering all this examples and others, I would say anything after 40 thousand is when players get old. At a pace of 3500-4000 minutes, Lebron gets near 40k after the 2013-2014 season. Under normal circumstances I would say 2 or 3 more elite seasons for LBJ makes sense. If someone believes LBJ has 6-8 more elite seasons left based on MJ's age at this point, I don't think they're looking at how impossible that'd be MP wise. At 3700 MP a season, in 4 more seasons he'll have as many minutes as KG and Kobe and Kidd have right now, the former two being historical outliers already for productivity this late. I would peg it at 4 or 5 more A+ seasons at most, with 2.5-3 as the over/under. Most likely is that the god mode activated LBJ lasts 2 or 3 more years, then like Kobe and Duncan recently, he's still a top 10 player putting up some big PERs, but the cracks are showing and he's not getting MVP consideration anymore. Being an MVP caliber player around 43-45k and in his 12th-13th season, would be "exceptional longevity" to me albeit most people would be shocked at the idea of early 30s Lebron starting to decline being called exceptional longevity

[ronnymac2]

^^^This guy is different though, Doc. Mentally and physically.

[toodles23]

Also, judging by what we saw in 2011 and to an extent in 2012, is it really that crazy to assume that Lebron's going to have exceptional longevity?

In 2011 he was a 27/8/7 on 59% TS (28/8/6 on 61% TS for the last 75% of the season) player and that's WHILE sharing the ball with a significantly better Wade (seriously, he looks godly in 2011 compared to now). That's with his skillset still underdeveloped compared to this year, a similar jumper, no back-to-basket game or any semblance of a post-game to boot, far weaker off-ball ability, and obviously very little in the way of conventional elite basketball athleticism.

Then last year, with slight improvements in the physical department, the addition of an off-ball game and the tinkering with the post-play, he was putting up a monster statistical season (27.7/8.4/6.7 in 37 minutes a game on 63% TS in the first 40 odd games of the season), then putting up quite an impressive run in the playoffs.


Considering how much he's improving skill-wise year-on-year, it would seem that he'd be AT LEAST able to replicate his 2011 season once his athleticism starts fading again as he ages. If not be outright better. That seems like a very encouraging sign, no?

Definitely. On the general board, the convention wisdom is still that he'll be nothing once his athleticism is gone, which makes me wonder what the hell they've been watching the last 3 years. And there's a good chance that he'll look better athletically in his early 30s than he did at age 26, which is bizarre, but I think he's even more motivated and focused now to keep himself in ridiculous shape. He's said that he's in the best shape of his life right now, which is likely why he looks so much better physically than he did the last 2 seasons.

[Dr Spaceman]

Do you guys think this is really just a "streak", or is this the new norm for Lebron? Honestly, I see a guy who "flipped the switch" and is working his way out of cruise control to gear up for the playoffs.

Also, has there ever been a guy who dominated the league mentally AND physically like he is this year? I mean, he'll beat everyone down court and get his head at the rim for the dunk, and then the next play call an iso, jab step 5 times, and drill a 3 with a hand in his face. He is just on top of the world right now mentally, physically, and skill-wise. It's gotta be so demoralizing to play against.

[SideshowBob]

snip

Believe me, I already know all about the minutes. I made several posts about it last season, and I took it a step further and asserted that the minutes were the reason he had ALREADY declined in 2011 and 2012.

I just want to make two quick points.

The first is that Lebron's played a total of 32491 NBA minutes. That's roughly as many minutes Jordan had played going IN to the 97 season (~33000), Shaq had played going IN to the 04 season, Kobe had played going IN to the 08 season, etc. Just want to point that out.

It's the minutes he played in Cleveland. From Season 2 to Season 5, he played 41.6 minutes per game. That's four years of carrying the largest raw load in the entire league. Offensively and defensively. Combine that with his style of play back then, high-frequency slashing, and it's bound to have effect on every joint in his body. Add that to the fact that he was adding weight nearly every season, and all that jumping is bound to have an effect on his knees as well.

Now, what's worse is the minutes he was playing in the playoffs. Even in his MVP years, his minutes were pretty up there, and last year, playing nearly 44 a game didn't help. Overall, making deep playoff runs, against top defensive teams year after year added to that wear and tear as well.

And at this point, despite being only 27, he's piled up 31,616 NBA minutes (playoffs/regular season combined).

For comparison, Jordan didn't hit that number until the early part of the 95-96 season, the first year of his 2nd threepeat, when he was 32. Think about that for a second. Lebron, right now, has played as many minutes in the NBA as 2nd threepeat Jordan had.

...

In a nutshell, that's the issue. The minutes. The age isn't telling the true story

What I was trying to get at earlier was "What is the consequence of piling on this many minutes played." We know he's going to decline, but what is it exactly that's going to occur. The big things are what we generally associate with Lebron's athleticism; hops, explosion, quickness, traits of that nature. My point was, we've already gotten a preview of what a less-skilled Lebron looks like without those things, specifically in 2011 and the first half of 2012. He made his living those season with crafty off-ball movement (largely cuts to the basket), an elite mid-range game (only 2011) , and feasting in transition. The most athletic plays he was making were in the open court, largely uncontested. There was little to no utilization of explosion or quickness in the half court. His first-step was non-existent, and the only time you saw him attack the basket was on straight line drives with a completely open lane.

Now say we take that guy, diminish his transition game a bit, but improve everything else. His jumper's going to continue to get better, he's already showing that he's improved leaps and bounds at playing without the ball, he's learning how to capitalize on his spot-up abilities and have them function within the team offense. His back-to-basket game is drastically improved, especially in the last month or so, I've never seen him look so comfortable on the low block (on both sides), and he's finally moved away from using the turnaround jumper as the go-to move instead of as the counter. As he improves his creation down there, he also builds experience in running the offense with his back to the basket. The list goes on.

So yeah, it makes 100% sense to look at the MP and say that we're going to start seeing the effects of all the playing time within the next 3-4 seasons. Absolutely agree with that, its just that I don't think that those effect will be as dramatic as the raw MP would entail they would, for the aforementioned reasons.